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At least 343 records · Page 19

Pressure Barrier Applicability to Polymer Flood Design

Effective oil displacement from a reservoir requires adequate and properly directed pressure gradients in areas of high oil saturation. If the polymer bank is too large or too viscous during a polymer flood, the pressure drop from the injection well to the polymer front may act as a pressure barrier by usurping most of the downstream driving force for oil displacement. Polymer injection pressures must be limited. The maximum allowable injection pressure is commonly constrained by caprock integrity, injection equipment, and/or regulations, even though fractures can be beneficial to polymer injectivity (and even sweep efficiency in some cases). This paper examines when the pressure-barrier concept limits the size and viscosity of the polymer bank during a polymer flood. Both analytical and numerical methods are used to address this issue. We examine the relevance of the pressure barrier concept for a wide variety of circumstances, including oil viscosities ranging from 10-cp (like at Daqing, China) to 1650-cp (like at Pelican Lake, Alberta), vertical wells (like at Tambaredjo, Suriname) versus horizontal wells (like at Milne Point, Alaska), single versus multiple layered reservoirs, permeability contrast, and with versus with crossflow between layers. We also examine the relation between the pressure-barrier concept and fractures and fracture extension during polymer injection. We demonstrate that in reservoirs with single layers, the pressure-barrier concept only limits the optimum viscosity of the injected polymer if the mobility of the polymer bank is less than the mobility of the displaced oil bank. The same is true for multi-zoned reservoirs with no crossflow between layers. Thus, for these cases, the optimum polymer viscosity is likely to be dictated by the mobility of the oil bank, unless other factors (like fracture extension) intervene. For multi-zoned reservoirs with free crossflow between layers, the situation is different. A compromise must be reached between injected polymer viscosity and the efficiency of oil recovery. The relevance of our findings is applied to operations for several existing polymer floods. This work is particularly relevant to viscous-oil reservoirs (like Pelican Lake and others) where the injected polymer viscosities are substantially lower than the oil viscosity

Wang, Dongmei↗

Flood hazard studies in Central Texas using orbital and suborbital remote sensing machinery

Central Texas is subject to infrequent, unusually intense rainstorms which cause extremely rapid runoff from drainage basins developed on the deeply dissected limestone and marl bedrock of the Edwards Plateau. One approach to flood hazard evaluation in this area is a parametric model relating flood hydrograph characteristics to quantitative geomorphic properties of the drainage basins. The preliminary model uses multiple regression techniques to predict potential peak flood discharge from basin magnitude, drainage density, and ruggedness number. After mapping small catchment networks from remote sensing imagery, input data for the model are generated by network digitization and analysis by a computer assisted routine of watershed analysis. The study evaluated the network resolution capabilities of the following data formats: (1) large-scale (1:24,000) topographic maps, employing Strahler's "method of v's," (2) standard low altitude black and white aerial photography (1:13,000 and 1:20,000 scales), (3) NASA - generated aerial infrared photography at scales ranging from 1:48,000 to 1:123,000, and (4) Skylab Earth Resources Experiment Package S-190A and S-190B sensors (1:750,000 and 1:500,000 respectively).

Baker, V. R.↗

Flooding of Monroe County, Michigan - A comparison of three remote sensor data sets

During the spring of 1973, three techniques were used to obtain remotely sensed data pertaining to the flooded shoreline of Monroe County, Michigan. Although digitized data from the Earth Resources Technology Satellite were available on magnetic tapes, analysis was based on interpretation methods normally used for aerial photography, since the black and white IR photography and side-looking airborne radar (SLAR) data were available only as images. Using IR photography as the standard, it was found that ERTS-1 Band 7 imagery had a 93% accuracy in detecting areas in the combined category of open water and flooded fields. X(HH) data from SLAR detected that built-up and wet areas were built-up (89 to 100% accuracy), but not that they were wet. It is suggested that these two sensors used in concert from orbital heights could provide information useful to relief organizations in flooded areas. It is considered likely that SLAR data will improve as higher resolution becomes available.

Bryan, M. L.↗

Paleohydraulics and hydrodynamics of Scabland floods

The last major episode of scabland flooding (approx. 18,000-13,000 years B.P.) left considerable high-water mark evidence in the form of: (1) eroded channel margins; (2) depositional features; (3) ice-rafter erratics; and (4) divide crossings. These were used to reconstruct maximum flood stages and water-surface gradients. Engineering hydraulic calculation procedures allowed the analyses of flood discharges and mean velocities from these data. Secondary flow phenomena, including various forms of vortices and flow separations, are considered to have been the principal erosive processes. The intense pressure and velocity gradients of vortices along the irregular channel boundaries produced the plucking-type erosion.

Baker, V. R.↗

Kasei Valles, Mars - Interpretation of canyon materials and flood sources

Kasei Valles form the most immense outflow channel system on Mars. Here, the materials that make up the canyon walls and floors of Kasei Valles are investigated along with the sources of the flood waters. It is proposed that the geological sequence of plateau materials through which Kasei Valles cuts is capped by ridged plains material overlying relatively weak Noachian plateau materials that increase in resistance to erosion below 1000 m depth. Flooding began in the Late Hesperian, probably originating from the Tharsis rise, here volcanotectonic activity produced high ground-water pressures. Ground water sluiced through hydrofractures above the resistant zone at 1000 m depth and erupted in northern Kasei Valles, forming mostly northeast-trending troughs of Sacra Fossae and etching joints in the ridged plains material. Some of the flood water invaded the upper weak zone of the Noachian plateau materials, producing chaotic and knobby terrains of low relief.

Tanaka, Kenneth L.↗

Flood basalts and extinction events

The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Namibian Flood Early Warning SensorWeb Pilot

The major goal of the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project is a scientifically sound, operational trans-boundary flood management decision support system for Southern African region to provide useful flood and waterborne disease forecasting tools for local decision makers. The Pilot Project established under the auspices of: Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF), Department of Water Affairs; Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS); and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort consists of identifying and prototyping technology which enables the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management.

Mandl, Daniel↗

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

Lau, W. K.↗

Use of the Earth Observing One (EO-1) Satellite for the Namibia SensorWeb Flood Early Warning Pilot

The Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite was launched in November 2000 as a one year technology demonstration mission for a variety of space technologies. After the first year, it was used as a pathfinder for the creation of SensorWebs. A SensorWeb is the integration of variety of space, airborne and ground sensors into a loosely coupled collaborative sensor system that automatically provides useful data products. Typically, a SensorWeb is comprised of heterogeneous sensors tied together with a messaging architecture and web services. Disasters are the perfect arena to use SensorWebs. One SensorWeb pilot project that has been active since 2009 is the Namibia Early Flood Warning SensorWeb pilot project. The Pilot Project was established under the auspices of the Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF)/Department of Water Affairs, the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS)/Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS) and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort began by identifying and prototyping technologies which enabled the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management. This was followed by an international collaboration to build small portions of the identified system which was prototyped during that past few years during the flood seasons which occurred in the February through May timeframe of 2010 and 2011 with further prototyping to occur in 2012. The SensorWeb system features EO-1 data along with other data sets from such satellites as Radarsat, Terra and Aqua. Finally, the SensorWeb team also began to examine the socioeconomic component to determine the impact of the SensorWeb technology and how best to assist in the infusion of this technology in lesser affluent areas with low levels of basic infrastructure. This paper provides an overview of these efforts, highlighting the EO-1 usage in this SensorWeb.

Mandl, Daniel↗

Hydrological Modeling of the Jezero Crater Outlet-Forming Flood

Abundant evidence exists for lakes on Mars both from orbital observations [e.g., 1-3] and in situ exploration [e.g., 4-5]. These lakes can be divided into two classes: those that were hydrologically closed, so their source valley(s) terminated at the basin [3], and those that were hydrologically open, where there was sufficient flow from inlet valley(s) to cause the lake to breach and form an outlet valley [2]. It is easier to be confident from orbital data alone that a standing body of water must have existed in open basins, because there is no other way for their perched outlet valleys to form. The majority of basins fed by valley networks, rather than by isolated inlet valleys, are open [6], with some important exceptions (e.g., Gale Crater). Jezero crater (Fig. 1) is one of the most well-studied open basin paleolakes on Mars, with a breach that re-mains well above the lowest part of the crater floor, and two sedimentary fans at its northwestern margin that are likely deltaic in origin [7-9]. CRISM observations of these sediments indicate they host a variety of alteration minerals [9-11], including smectite and carbonate, and both the mineralogy of the sediments and their settings suggest they have a strong potential for preserving organic materials [10]. As a result, Jezero is a strong candidate landing site for the Mars 2020 rover. Approximate formative discharges have been estimated for its well-preserved western fan (Q approximately 500m3/s) [7], but to our knowledge, no estimates for the dis-charges associated with formation and incision of its outlet valley have been presented. Indeed, only a few studies [e.g., 12-14] have attempted to reconstruct the formation of outlet breaches broadly similar to Jezero anywhere on Mars, despite the apparent commonality of basins with large outlets [e.g., 2]. The outlet valley formed as a dam breach when the lake overflowed. In such an event, the growth and incision of the breach is directly coupled to flood discharge. In the case of Jezero, the discharge through the breach eventually lacked the energy needed to erode through the dam further, preventing complete drainage of the lake. After the initial flood, further incision can take place if additional water flows into, and thus out of, the hydrologically open lake, though the rate of this erosion occurs under more typical fluvial conditions. Despite this qualitative understanding of the process, it is useful to explore numerically what range of model parameters are potentially consistent with obser-vations of the outlet. We ultimately seek to address questions that include: (1) What was the flood hydro-graph?, (2) What sediment transport processes were involved and what can we infer about the erosion process? (3) Can most or all of the Jezero outlet's morphology be explained as a consequence of catastrophic formation, or is additional longer-term erosion required?

geology↗

What Caused the Record Floods of March 2019 Across the Middle East?

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for some of the hydroclimatic extremes around the world. Their mechanisms and contribution to flooding in the Middle East are relatively poorly understood. This study shows that the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East were caused by a powerful AR, originated from the North Atlantic Ocean. Iran, in particular, was substantially affected by the floods. The nearly 9000 km long AR propagated across North Africa and the Middle-East, and was fed by additional moisture from several other sources on its pathway. Simultaneous presence of a mid-latitude system and a subtropical jet facilitated the moisture supply. The AR, as passing over the Zagros Mountains, produced record rainfall induced by the orographic forcing.

Dezfuli, Amin↗

Montana Water Resources II: Enhancing a Moisture Index for Drought and Flood Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin is a major global breadbasket, containing large amounts of agricultural land. Recent devastating weather events have motivated regional organizations to dedicate efforts to drought and flood monitoring and early warning systems. The DEVELOP team partnered with the following organizations: Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, NOAA Regional Climate Services of the Central Region, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, and the US Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. The team collaborated with the partners in their efforts to monitor flood and drought by enhancing a composite moisture index (CMI) for the Missouri River Basin. The CMI leverages NASA Earth observations to derive snow cover data from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mission and snow water equivalent and snowdepth datasets from the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Building upon this framework, the team added groundwater storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On missions, soil moisture data from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and United States Geological Survey in situ streamflow data to the CMI. To test the tool’s validity, the team compared the CMI results to historically extreme dry and extreme wet years, March 2017 and March 2019, respectively. The CMI accurately reflects both 2017 and 2019 climate conditions in the Missouri River Basin. The refined CMI enhances the understanding of antecedent soil moisture conditions and improves flood and drought forecasting in the Missouri River Basin before the growing season.

Chloe Schneider↗

Impacts of Fully Coupling Land Surface and Flood Models on the Simulation of Large Wetlands’ Water Dynamics: The Case of the Inner Niger Delta

It is known that representing wetland dynamics in land surface modeling improves models ‘capacity to reproduce fluxes and land surface boundary conditions for atmospheric modeling in general circulation models. This study presents the development of the full coupling between the Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) and the HyMAP flood model in the NASA Land Information System and its application over the Inner Niger Delta (IND), a well-known hot-spot of strong land surface-atmosphere interactions in West Africa. Here, we define two experiments at 0.02o spatial resolution over 2002-2018 to quantify the impacts of the proposed developments on simulating IND dynamics. One represents the one-way approach for simulating land surface and flooding processes (1-WAY), i.e., Noah-MP neglects surface water availability, and the proposed two-way coupling (2-WAY), where Noah-MP takes surface water availability into account in the vertical water and energy balance. Results show that accounting for two-way interactions between Noah- MP and HyMAP over IND improves simulations of all selected hydrological variables. Compared to 1-WAY, evapotranspiration derived from 2-WAY over flooding zones doubles, increased by 0.8mm/day, resulting in an additional water loss rate of ~18,900km(exp 3)/year, ~40% drop of wetland extent during wet seasons and major improvement in simulated water level variability at multiple locations. Significant soil moisture increase and surface temperature drop were also observed. Wetland outflows decreased by 35%, resulting in a substantial a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient improvement, from -0.73 to 0.79. It is anticipated that future developments in water monitoring and water-related disaster warning systems will considerably benefit from these findings.

Augusto Getirana↗

Flood Mapping Using UAVSAR and Convolutional Neural Networks

We have mapped flooded areas in data collected by the NASA/JPL Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) using two convolutional neural network (CNN) image classifier architectures: U-Net and SegNet. Our study area was a region around Houston, TX, USA affected by widespread flooding in 2017 due to Hurricane Harvey. To train and test the classifiers, we manually labelled over 10000 image segments in two flight lines. Both U-Net and SegNet yielded higher accuracy than a previous non-machine learning classifier we used as a baseline. U-Net had slightly higher accuracy than SegNet. The classifiers performed better in areas with more homogeneous land cover. To independently validate the classifier accuracy we used NOAA aerial imagery, with overall accuracy around 80%. Future work includes assessing the classifier robustness in other study areas, assessing the classifier dependence on UAVSAR incidence angle, particularly for open water and bare ground, and collecting more training data, particularly in urban areas. This study demonstrates the potential of CNN image classifiers for mapping flooded areas in airborne polarimetric SAR imagery, and for land cover classification of polarimetric SAR imagery more generally.

Denbina, Michael W↗

NASA GSFC Flood Mapping System (In beta testing)

The authors are developing the NASA GSFC Flood Mapping System, designed to provide near real time, on-demand satellite-based products to disaster management practitioners for requests provided through a website interface. The initial version of the system, which only provides products based on Planetscope data provided by Planet Labs to NASA through the NASA CSDA Program, is currently being beta tested in partnership with the disaster management community and interested research partners. Products include images, NDWI maps, NDVI maps, and water extent maps for flood scenes of interest, the same four products for a specified reference scene, and water extent change maps based on the flood scenes and reference scenes. The team’s vision for the system includes adding products based on all appropriate sources of data that are available at no cost to the project (Landsat, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2), and obtaining funding for commercial SAR data to provide products in the case where none of the “no-cost” data meets end-user needs. We provide an overview of the system, and discuss the products offered, lessons learned from initial testing, and plans to evolve the system in accordance with our overall vision and the lessons learned.

F. Policelli↗