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At least 343 records · Page 19

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Porous condensers can double the efficiency of membrane distillation

Among membrane distillation (MD) configurations, air gap MD (AGMD) has superior energy efficiency at high salinity. However, flooding of the gap prevents optimal thin gap depths as water removal is a challenge. To address these challenges, this work provides the first analysis of efficiency enhancement via porous wicking conductive condensers in MD. To do so, we examined performance with experiments and comprehensive thermo-fluid numerical models; we find that the porous wick condenser significantly improves thermal efficiency, gain output ratio (GOR), and flux. MD experiments show that the porous copper foam improves the thermal efficiency of air gap membrane distillation up to 40 % and water flux up to 144 %. Numerical modeling shows the porous copper foam improves the GOR of membrane distillation in high salinity by 98.7 %, outperforming air gap MD, permeate gap MD, and conductive gap MD. Furthermore, the optimized thickness and permeability of porous condensers significantly help eliminate the risk of flooding in AGMD.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effects of different vegetation drag parameterizations on the tidal propagation in coastal marshlands

Vegetation drag is a fundamental quantity directly affecting results for both long- and short-term coastal marsh and geomorphological studies. The vegetation drag in coastal marshland has been modeled by various two-dimensional (2D) and threedimensional (3D) numerical parameterizations. 2D parameterizations treat coastal marshes as bottom roughness elements, while 3D parameterizations resolve the vertically-variable vegetation drag through the water column. However, differences in tidal propagation arising from different drag parameterizations within a single model are largely unknown, and clear guidance on parameterization selection is still missing. In this study, we implemented four vegetation drag parameterizations into the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-O), which include 1) a 2D parameterization using land-cover type-determined Manning’s n (2DLM); 2) a 2D parameterization using vegetation-determined Manning’s n (2DVM); 3) a 3D parameterization for stiff vegetation (3DSV); and 4) a 3D parameterization for flexible vegetation (3DFV). Estimates of the flow resistance effects from these parameterizations were compared using a series of idealized tidal propagation simulations. Given the same tidal condition, flooding depth and flooding distance are the largest in the 2DLM simulations and the smallest in the 3DSV simulations. 2DVM results are the closest to the 2DLM results. 3DFV results are the closest to the average of 2DVM, 3DSV, and 3DFV results. 2DVM and 3DSV results are the least and most sensitive to the vegetation aboveground biomass, respectively. Based on the input data requirement and computational efficiency of each parameterization, a comparison summary is provided to help inform parameterization selection for specific applications. Here, the effects of these parameterizations on coastal geomorphology are further discussed, and the results demonstrate that estimates of the long-term evolution of coastal marshes and coastal morphology depend upon the selection of the vegetation drag parameterization

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Root and Microbial Soil CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes Respond Differently to Seasonal and Episodic Environmental Changes in a Temperate Forest

Upland forest soils are typically major atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources and methane (CH 4 ) sinks, but the contributions of root and microbial processes, as well as their separate temporal responses to environmental change, remain poorly understood. This 2-year study was conducted in a temperate, deciduous forest located on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, USA. We used temporal CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements, exclusion-source partitioning, and an ecosystem-scale flooding experiment to understand how carbon (C) fluxes, and their root and microbial sources, respond to seasonal and episodic environmental change. Here, we show that the root-and-rhizosphere component of soil CO 2 and CH 4 flux is significant and that its dependence on soil temperature and volumetric water content (VWC) influences soil C dynamics at seasonal timescales. Experimental flooding shows that CO 2 and CH 4 flux responses to episodic moisture change were driven by suppression of soil heterotrophs, while root respiration did not respond to transient hydrologic disturbance. Methane uptake responded strongly to episodic inundation, reinforcing the important role of soil moisture in the short-term control of the forest soil CH 4 sink. However, despite the clear seasonality of CH 4 uptake, as well as its strong response to short-term experimental inundation, temperature and VWC were weak predictors of CH 4 uptake at a seasonal timescale. We suggest that CH 4 consumption in the long-term may be determined by vegetation, nutrients, microbial communities, or other factors correlated with seasonal changes. Our results indicate that root and microbial sources of both CO 2 and CH 4 flux respond differently in timing and magnitude to seasonal and episodic environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics–Informed Neural Networks of the Saint–Venant Equations for Downscaling a Large–Scale River Model

Large-scale river models are being refined over coastal regions to improve the scientific understanding of coastal processes, hazards and responses to climate change. However, coarse mesh resolutions and approximations in physical representations of tidal rivers limit the performance of such models at resolving the complex flow dynamics near the river-ocean interface, resulting in inaccurate simulations of flood inundation. In this research, we propose a machine learning (ML) framework based on the state-of-the-art physics-informed neural network (PINN) to simulate the downscaled flow at the subgrid scale. First, we demonstrate that PINN is able to assimilate observations of various types and solve the one-dimensional (1-D) Saint-Venant equations (SVE) directly. We perform the flow simulations over a floodplain and along an open channel in several synthetic case studies. The PINN performance is evaluated against analytical solutions and numerical models. Our results indicate that the PINN solutions of water depth have satisfactory accuracy with limited observations assimilated. In the case of flood wave propagation induced by storm surge and tide, a new neural network architecture is proposed based on Fourier feature embeddings that seamlessly encodes the periodic tidal boundary condition in the PINN's formulation. Furthermore, we show that the PINN-based downscaling can produce more reasonable subgrid solutions of the along-channel water depth by assimilating observational data. The PINN solution outperforms the simple linear interpolation in resolving the topography and dynamic flow regimes at the subgrid scale. This study provides a promising path towards improving emulation capabilities in large-scale models to characterize fine-scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) at Three-Meter Resolution for the State of Texas

URL: https://web.corral.tacc.utexas.edu/nfiedata/pin2flood/texas/ The current National Water Model and its Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) service use 10-meter Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) hydrological terrain. In the Pin2Flood project (https://gis.tdem.texas.gov/portal/apps/storymaps/stories/72f0ec81a7654da688518f486122abed), funded by the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), ORNL computed the 3-meter HAND and associated synthetic rating curves for the State of Texas, covering 287,535 river streams (1.5km/stream) in 209 HUC8s. This archived dataset includes the HAND raster and the synthetic rating curve table for each of the 209 HUC8s in Texas. It is hosted at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC). This 3-meter HAND is derived from the Fathom 3-meter DEM and NHDPlus V21 using an accelerated version of NOAA's Flood Inundation Mapping version 3 (FIM3, https://github.com/NOAA-OWP/inundation-mapping/tree/dev-fim3)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hourly temperature and surface water level at the Ikpikpuk delta from 5/2012 to 11/2012

This data package includes the soil temperature and surface water level observations in 2012 at the Ikpikpuk River delta in northern Alaska. The data file consists of the observation table with both the .xlsx and .csv file formats. The files can be accessed through several software tools, like Microsoft Excel, and text editors. This is raw data from the near-surface ground temperature sensors at 15 cm (active layer) and 100 cm (permafrost) soil depth and a surface water sensor at the Ikpikpuk delta site in Alaska, US. The Ikpikpuk River delta is located on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. The Ikpikpuk River drains a land area of 15,330 km2, emptying into Smith Bay, and the delta is fan-shaped with an aerial extent of 106 km2 (Fuchs et al., 2018). This dataset supports the publication entitled "The thermal response of permafrost to coastal floodplain flooding" submitted to Environmental Research Letters (under review), where the observed water level is used as the upper boundary condition for the model simulations and the observed subsurface temperature is compared with the model simulations to answer the question about how coastal flooding affects permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in Climate and Its Effect on Timing of Snowmelt and Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Snow is a critical water resource for much of the U.S. and failure to account for changes in climate could deleteriously impact military assets. In this study, we produced historical and future snow trends through modeling at three military sites (in Washington, Colorado, and North Dakota) and the Western U.S. For selected rivers, we performed seasonal trend analysis of discharge extremes. We calculated flood frequency curves and estimated the probability of occurrence of future annual maximum daily rainfall depths. Additionally, we generated intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) to find rainfall intensities at several return levels. Generally, our results showed a decreasing trend in historical and future snow duration, rain-on-snow events, and snowmelt runoff. This decreasing trend in snowpack could reduce water resources. A statistically significant increase in maximum streamflow for most rivers at the Washington and North Dakota sites occurred for several months of the year. In Colorado, only a few months indicated such an increase. Future IDF curves for Colorado and North Dakota indicated a slight increase in rainfall intensity whereas the Washington site had about a twofold increase. This increase in rainfall intensity could result in major flood events, demonstrating the importance of accounting for climate changes in infrastructure planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low diffusive methane emissions from the main channel of a large Amazonian run-of-the-river reservoir attributed to high methane oxidation

The global development of hydropower dams has rapidly expanded over the last several decades and has spread to historically non-impounded systems such as the Amazon River's main low land tributaries in Brazil. Despite the recognized significance of reservoirs to the global methane (CH4) emission, the processes controlling this emission remain poorly understood, especially in Tropical reservoirs. Here we evaluate CH4 dynamics in the main channel and downstream of the Santo Antônio hydroelectric reservoir, a large tropical run-of-the-river (ROR) reservoir in Amazonia. This study is intended to give a snapshot of the CH4 dynamics during the falling water season at the initial stage after the start of operations. Our results show substantial and higher CH4 production in reservoirs' littoral sediment than in the naturally flooded areas downstream of the dam. Despite the large production in the reservoir or naturally flooded areas, high CH4 oxidation in the main channel keep the concentration and fluxes of CH4 in the main channel low. Similar CH4 concentrations in the reservoir and downstream close to the dam suggest negligible degassing at the dam, but stable isotopic evidence indicates the presence of a less oxidized pool of CH4 after the dam. ROR reservoirs are designed to disturb the natural river flow dynamics less than traditional reservoirs. If enough mixing and oxygenation remain throughout the reservoir's water column, naturally high CH4 oxidation rates can also remain and limit the diffusive CH4 emissions from the main channel. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight that our results focused on emissions in the deep and oxygenated main channel. High emissions, mainly through ebullition, may occur in the vast and shallow areas represented by bays and tributaries. However, detailed assessments are still required to understand the impacts of this reservoir on the annual emissions of CH4.

Amazon, aquatic, biogeochemistry, carbon cycling, ↗

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Design: Advances and Opportunities

National and international security communities (e.g., U.S. Department of Defense) have shown increasing attention for innovating critical infrastructure and installations due to recurring high-profile flooding events in recent years. The standard infrastructure design approach relies on local precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves that do not account for snow process and assume stationary climate, leading to high failure risk and increased maintenance costs. This paper reviews the recently developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that explicitly account for the mechanisms of extreme water available for runoff including rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow under nonstationary climate. The NG-IDF curve is an enhancement to the PREC-IDF curve and provides a consistent design approach across rain- to snow-dominated regions, which can benefit engineers and planners responsible for designing climate-resilient facilities, federal emergency agencies responsible for the flood insurance program, and local jurisdictions responsible for developing design manuals and approving subsequent infrastructure designs. Further, we discuss the recent advances in climate and hydrologic science communities that have not been translated into actional information in the engineering community. To bridge the gap, we advocate that building climate-resilient infrastructure goes beyond the traditional local design scale where engineers rely on recipe-based methods only; the future hydrologic design is a multi-scale problem and requires closer collaboration between climate scientists, hydrologists, and civil engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expectations of Future Natural Hazards in Human Adaptation to Concurrent Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimizing Deep Learning Models for Climate-Related Natural Disaster Detection from UAV Images and Remote Sensing Data

This research study utilized artificial intelligence (AI) to detect natural disasters from aerial images. Flooding and desertification were two natural disasters taken into consideration. The Climate Change Dataset was created by compiling various open-access data sources. This dataset contains 6334 aerial images from UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) images and satellite images. The Climate Change Dataset was then used to train Deep Learning (DL) models to identify natural disasters. Four different Machine Learning (ML) models were used: convolutional neural network (CNN), DenseNet201, VGG16, and ResNet50. These ML models were trained on our Climate Change Dataset so that their performance could be compared. DenseNet201 was chosen for optimization. All four ML models performed well. DenseNet201 and ResNet50 achieved the highest testing accuracies of 99.37% and 99.21%, respectively. This research project demonstrates the potential of AI to address environmental challenges, such as climate change-related natural disasters. This study’s approach is novel by creating a new dataset, optimizing an ML model, cross-validating, and presenting desertification as one of our natural disasters for DL detection. Three categories were used (Flooded, Desert, Neither). Our study relates to AI for Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability. Drone emergency response would be a practical application for our research project.

AI↗

An Assessment of the Influence of Uncertainty in Temporally Evolving Streamflow Forecasts on Riverine Inundation Modeling

Continental-scale river forecasting platforms forecast streamflow at reaches that can be used as boundary conditions to drive a local-scale flood inundation model. Uncertainty accumulated during this process stems not only from any part of the forecasting chain but can also be caused by the daily variations in weather forcing that keeps evolving as the event advances. This work aims to examine the influence of the evolving forecast streamflow on predicting the maximum inundation for extreme floods. A diagnostic case study was made on the basis of a hindcast of Hurricane Matthew striking the eastern U.S. in 2016. The U.S. National Water Model was one-way coupled to a hydrodynamic inundation model through a developed automated workflow. Although the river forcing has significantly mismatched hydrographs versus observations, the simulated peak water surface elevations and maximum extents were validated to be comparable with the observations, which indicates that the inundation model may not be sensitive to the inherited uncertainty from the weather forcing. Moreover, the uncertainty of the forecast streamflow time series caused only one order of magnitude fewer variations in inundation prediction; this dampening effect may become clearer for extreme events with large areas inundated. In addition, the forecast total volume of stream discharge appears to be an important metric for assessing the performance of river forcing for inundation mapping, as a linear correlation between the total volume and the accuracy of the predicted peak water surface elevation and maximum extent was found, with the coefficients of determination all above 0.8. Extra best-practice experience of running similar operational tasks demonstrated the tradeoff between the cost and accuracy gain.

flood, national water model, RIFT↗

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Tuning of Self‐Conductive Polymer as Gas Diffusion Layer for Electrocatalytic Reactions at High Current

Electrocatalytic conversions offer a promising route for sustainable chemical production using renewable energy. Gas diffusion layers (GDLs) enable selective product formation at high current densities but suffer from electrolyte flooding, and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-based GDLs typically require metal conductive layers, which constrain catalyst development. A recently developed GDL configuration, electropolymerized poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT)-coated PTFE, demonstrates notable flooding resistance, but suffers from gas diffusion limitations at elevated currents due to limited gas diffusion through the PEDOT layer. Here, different dopants in PEDOT are exploited to modify the physical properties and enhance gas transport. ClO 4 − -doped PEDOT exhibits superior performance due to optimized physical structure, leading to increased gas permeance and faradaic efficiency (FE) for CO production during electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction. Further optimization of coverage and thickness achieved by adjusting charge density led to an optimal configuration at 33 mC cm −2 . This GDL supports various metal electrocatalysts and demonstrates FE CO of > 90% for over 150 h at −200 mA cm −2 using a commercial silver electrocatalyst. This work highlights the importance of GDL engineering in enhancing performance and durability for long-term electrocatalytic processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Two‐Membrane Dual Non‐Aqueous/Aqueous Electrolyte Flow Cell Operation for Electrochemical Conversion of CO 2 to Methyl Formate

Recently, tandem cathodic reactions have been demonstrated in non-aqueous solvents to couple CO 2 reduction to a secondary reaction to create novel species that are not produced in aqueous CO 2 electrolysis. One reaction that can be performed with high selectivity and durability is the electrochemical conversion of CO 2 to formic acid and in-situ esterification with methanol to produce methyl formate. However, the translation to a high-performance flow electrolyzer is far from trivial, as the non-aqueous catholyte leads to reactor challenges including flooding the gas diffusion electrode. Here, in this study, a two-membrane flow electrolyzer with both anion and cation exchange membranes was used with flowing methanol catholyte and aqueous anolyte. This design prevented methanol from flooding the cathode, which was a pervasive limiting issue for electrolyzers with a single membrane. Methyl formate production at 42.9 % faradaic efficiency was achieved with pure methanol in a flow electrolyzer with stable performance beyond 80 min. However, low-water-content catholyte compositions also led to increased cell resistance and lower operating current densities. Thus, with the present ionomer materials there is a tradeoff between methyl formate selectivity and current density depending on water concentration, highlighting a need for new ionomers tailored for desirable non-aqueous solvents such as methanol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Temporal Patterns in Soil Redox Potential Vary Across a Freshwater Coastal Delta

Widespread and persistent flooding is submerging coastal ecosystems, particularly along the Louisiana Gulf coast, where flooding results from the compounding effects of ground subsidence and rising sea level. Restoration projects aim to mitigate land loss by diverting sediment loads from rivers into degraded areas to increase ground elevation. To predict how coastal ecosystems will change over time in response to projected changes in relative sea level and restoration, it is necessary to understand how subsurface biogeochemical processes respond to dynamic hydrologic forcings. Here, this study evaluates how environmental parameters that integrate biogeochemical processes vary with water table fluctuations in the freshwater Wax Lake Delta (WLD) in Louisiana, USA, where water diversions have formed one of the only active deltas along the coast. High‐frequency observations of water level, soil redox potential, specific conductance and pH were made for 1 year along elevation transects located on the older, proximal and younger, distal ends of a deltaic island. Redox responded rapidly to changing water tables, with fluctuations occurring primarily in shallow soils (< 20 cm) and at higher elevations. Deeper soils and those at lower elevation remained inundated and reduced. Semi‐diurnal tidal fluctuations were pronounced in younger, distal soils, presumably due to rapid groundwater exchange with the river channel. Tidal signals were muted in older soils that instead exhibited seasonal variability associated with river discharge and evapotranspiration. Although much of the delta sediments are persistently reducing and anoxic, redox fluctuations in the natural levees that border the deltaic islands likely drive high rates of biogeochemical activity. Evaluating how hydrology drives the frequency and duration of redox fluctuations provides a basis for understanding how biogeochemical processes might vary with complex hydrological interactions in coastal systems.

Herndon, Elizabeth [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Collateral benefits: River flow normalization for endangered fish enabled riparian rejuvenation

Abstract Like most rivers worldwide, the transboundary North American Kootenay/i River has experienced multiple impacts including watershed developments, river channelization, and floodplain clearing, draining, and diking. Construction of Libby Dam was authorized by the 1964 Columbia River Treaty (CRT) between the United States and Canada, and in 1975 began regulating downstream flows for flood risk management and hydropower generation. Following cumulative impacts, the endemic Kootenai River White Sturgeon population collapsed and was designated as endangered in 1994 (U.S. Endangered Species Act). Subsequent Biological Opinions from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service prescribed Libby Dam operations to provide springtime flow pulses for sturgeon spawning. These provided the unanticipated benefit of substantial seedling recruitment of native and introduced riparian cottonwoods and willows. The regulated flow regime was further adaptively managed to provide a more normative (natural) regime, to balance ecological functions with flood risk management and hydropower generation. The broadened ecological considerations would be consistent with the proposed priorities for the modernization of the international CRT. The observed responses revealed that (1) diverse aquatic and riparian organisms are dependent on common river flow characteristics; (2) a normalized flow regime provided substantial ecological benefits; and (3) due to multiple influences, hybrid ecosystems develop along regulated rivers, with a blending of natural and altered processes and communities. For other regulated rivers, we recommend that (1) high springtime flows be allowed, as feasible; (2) followed by the gradual post‐peak recession; and (3) the maintenance of sufficient flows through the warm and dry interval of mid to late summer.

Rood, Stewart B.↗