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DOE OSTI2025

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on TC simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on tropical cyclone simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data. These CSV files are derived from the NetCDF files in the c0 dataset. Unlike the original format, where geographic coordinates were stored in a separate file, each CSV now embeds the corresponding latitude and longitude values alongside the measured or simulated variables.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Selection of high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies from broadband and wide photometric surveys

In this paper, we investigate the possibility of selecting high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies (LBG) using current and future broadband wide photometric surveys, such as the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS) or the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), using a Random Forest algorithm. This work is conducted in the context of future large-scale structure spectroscopic surveys like DESI-II, the next phase of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which will start around 2029.We use deep imaging data from the Hyper Suprime Camera (HSC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Large Area U-band Deep Survey (CLAUDS) on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. To predict the selection performance of LBGs with image quality similar to UNIONS, we degrade the u,g,r,i and z bands to UNIONS depth.The Random Forest algorithm is trained with the u,g,r,i and z bands to classify LBGs in the 2.5 < z < 3.5 range.We find that fixing a target density budget of 1,100 deg$^{-2}$, the Random Forest approach gives a density of z > 2 targets of 873 deg$^{-2}$, and a density of 493 deg$^{-2}$ of confirmed LBGs after spectroscopic confirmation with DESI. This UNIONS-like selection was tested in a dedicated spectroscopic observation campaign of 1,000 targets with DESI on the COSMOS field, providing a safe spectroscopic sample with a mean redshift of 3. This sample is used to derive forecasts for DESI-II, assuming a sky coverage of 5,000 deg$^{2}$. We predict uncertainties on Alcock-Paczynski parameters α$_{⊥}$ and α$_{∥}$ to be 0.7% and 1% for 2.6 < z < 3.2, resulting in a potential 2% measurement of the dark energy fraction at high redshift. Additionally, we estimate the uncertainty in local non-Gaussianity and predict σ$_{fNL}$ ≈ 7, which would be comparable to the current best precision achieved by Planck. The latter forecast suggests that achieving the precision required to place stringent constraints on inflationary models (σ$_{fNL}$ ≈ 1) using spectroscopic galaxy surveys necessitates the development of a next-generation (Stage V) spectroscopic survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance of reanalysis and mesoscale models off the coast of Hawai'i

The eastern Hawai'i coast in the United States is characterized by considerable wind resource fuelled by persistent trade winds, making it an important area for energy research. The need is strong for reanalyses and higher-resolution regional simulations where observations have been historically limited, such as Hawai'i's offshore environments. However, studies using offshore observations in other parts of the world have shown that significant errors can occur in reanalyses and wind datasets, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation, payback periods, and extreme weather risks at project locations. The degree of such errors is influenced by a number of factors, including spatial resolution and the handling of processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this work, we provide a wind resource characterization from year-long lidar buoy measurements off the eastern coast of O'ahu, Hawai'i, an environment previously unobserved at the rotor level, and use the characterization to evaluate the performance of two simulation datasets. The O'ahu deployment location is meteorologically unique and less complex than land-based wind resource characterizations, being strongly characterized by trade winds with minimal land–atmosphere interaction influences. Despite the unique and fairly consistent meteorological conditions, we hypothesize that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors similar to those that have been seen for other offshore locations. We find the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) to strongly underestimate observed wind speeds at the O'ahu location (bias = −1.54 m s −1 at a height of 140 m above sea level), while a regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation produced by the University of Hawai'i (UH-WRF) provides a significantly smaller wind speed bias (−0.25 m s −1 ), highlighting the value of running regional, higher-resolution simulations. The large bias noted for ERA5 is driven by significant underestimation of fast wind speeds (>9 m s −1 ), which the study site is largely characterized by, along with discontinuities in the ERA5 diurnal cycle. We also speculate that the relative sparsity of observations for data assimilation in this remote part of the world could influence the performance of ERA5 and that challenges with characterizing island effects could impact the performance of both datasets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Using a Physics-Based Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) Model

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a widely used resource providing satellite-derived solar data across the United States and globally. While the NSRDB employs a physical model for computing global horizontal irradiance (GHI), its current method for estimating cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI) relies on surface observations and empirical models. Recently, a novel physics-based approach, the Fast All-Sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to enhance the DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI incorporates both direct and scattered solar radiation within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead DNI predictions when integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study integrates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to generate high-resolution DNI data from satellite resources. Our findings reveal that FARMS-DNI effectively mitigates the substantial DNI overestimation present in the conventional NSRDB across surface sites, particularly in conditions categorized as cloudy overcast. Consequently, this innovative model substantially enhances the overall accuracy of the NSRDB.

Xie, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic Shear Analysis of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey

We forecast cosmological constraints and develop a cosmic shear analysis pipeline for the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE). We test the effects of two different intrinsic alignment frameworks (TATT and NLA) on synthetic data vectors. In addition, we examine the impact of baryon contamination and determine the necessary scale cuts to reduce its influence. We find the forecast results to be as constraining as the DES Y3 cosmological parameter measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tangible Solutions for Grid Operation Upgrade

Many countries worldwide are setting clean energy targets to decarbonize the energy sector and add higher wind and solar capacities. Given their distributed nature, variable renewable energy (VRE) assets can have unique grid integration considerations, and require grid operation practices to be modernized. When transitioning to higher renewable energy levels, many system operators configure a dedicated renewable energy desk to manage renewable energy resource operation in the system control center. Further, system operation planning is conducted with VRE and load forecasting to enable reliable real-time system operation. NREL has partnered with many system operators in the region to identify appropriate technology and grid modernization solutions. NREL and partners from system operators in the region will present on the challenges and some solutions that have been applied and share best practices such as energy management system upgrades, VRE forecasting framework, grid flexibility improvements, and staff training.

emerging economies↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automating Rabi & Ramsey Measurements via ML

As quantum computers scale up, the manual process of qubit tune-up becomes increasingly impractical due to its time-consuming and repetitive nature. While existing research has explored some automation techniques, many models remain underutilized for this purpose. This research aims to answer the question: can qubit tune-up be automated using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model? For the purposes of this project, only the rabi and ramsey measurement cycle was automated. These measurements are used to fine-tune a rough qubit frequency by repeating them until the optimal qubit frequency is obtained. The LSTM model uses the qubit frequency at one time step to forecast the qubit frequency at the next time step. A rabi-ramsey simulation was made to fabricate a dataset to train and test the LSTM model. As the model was trained, the error of the model decreased. Although there wasn t enough training data to generate perfect predictions, this shows it is possible to utilize forecasting models in automating the tune-up process.

Roberts, Rachel↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automating Rabi & Ramsey Measurements via Machine Learning

As quantum computers scale up, the manual process of qubit tune-up becomes increasingly impractical due to its time-consuming and repetitive nature. While existing research has explored some automation techniques, many models remain underutilized for this purpose. This research aims to answer the question: can qubit tune-up be automated using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model? For the purposes of this project, only the rabi and ramsey measurement cycle was automated. These measurements are used to fine-tune a rough qubit frequency by repeating them until the optimal qubit frequency is obtained. The LSTM model uses the qubit frequency at one time step to forecast the qubit frequency at the next time step. A rabi-ramsey simulation was made to fabricate a dataset to train and test the LSTM model. As the model was trained, the error of the model decreased. Although there wasn't enough training data to generate perfect predictions, this shows it is possible to utilize forecasting models in automating the tune-up process.

Roberts, Rachel↗