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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Throughput Benefit Assessment for Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM)

The System-Oriented Runway Management (SORM) concept is a collection of needed capabilities focused on a more efficient use of runways while considering all of the factors that affect runway use. Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM), one of the SORM capabilities, provides runway configuration and runway usage recommendations, monitoring the active runway configuration for suitability given existing factors, based on a 90 minute planning horizon. This study evaluates the throughput benefits using a representative sample of today's traffic volumes at three airports: Memphis International Airport (MEM), Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), and John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK). Based on this initial assessment, there are statistical throughput benefits for both arrivals and departures at MEM with an average of 4% for arrivals, and 6% for departures. For DFW, there is a statistical benefit for arrivals with an average of 3%. Although there is an average of 1% benefit observed for departures, it is not statistically significant. For JFK, there is a 12% benefit for arrivals, but a 2% penalty for departures. The results obtained are for current traffic volumes and should show greater benefit for increased future demand. This paper also proposes some potential TRCM algorithm improvements for future research. A continued research plan is being worked to implement these improvements and to re-assess the throughput benefit for today and future projected traffic volumes.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗
NASA NTRS2012

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing - Part 1

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of −2.0Wm(exp−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate (−0.2Wm(exp−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm(exp−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp−2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2013

Glenn Research Center Human Research Program: Overview

The NASA-Glenn Research Centers Human Research Program office supports a wide range of technology development efforts aimed at enabling extended human presence in space. This presentation provides a brief overview of the historical successes, current 2013 activities and future projects of NASA-GRCs Human Research Program.

Nall, Marsha M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Optical Meteor Systems Used by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office

The NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) uses two main meteor camera networks to characterize the meteoroid environment: an all sky system and a wide field system to study cm and mm size meteors respectively. The NASA All Sky Fireball Network consists of fifteen meteor video cameras in the United States, with plans to expand to eighteen cameras by the end of 2015. The camera design and All-Sky Guided and Real-time Detection (ASGARD) meteor detection software [1, 2] were adopted from the University of Western Ontario's Southern Ontario Meteor Network (SOMN). After seven years of operation, the network has detected over 12,000 multi-station meteors, including meteors from at least 53 different meteor showers. The network is used for speed distribution determination, characterization of meteor showers and sporadic sources, and for informing the public on bright meteor events. The NASA Wide Field Meteor Network was established in December of 2012 with two cameras and expanded to eight cameras in December of 2014. The two camera configuration saw 5470 meteors over two years of operation with two cameras, and has detected 3423 meteors in the first five months of operation (Dec 12, 2014 - May 12, 2015) with eight cameras. We expect to see over 10,000 meteors per year with the expanded system. The cameras have a 20 degree field of view and an approximate limiting meteor magnitude of +5. The network's primary goal is determining the nightly shower and sporadic meteor fluxes. Both camera networks function almost fully autonomously with little human interaction required for upkeep and analysis. The cameras send their data to a central server for storage and automatic analysis. Every morning the servers automatically generates an e-mail and web page containing an analysis of the previous night's events. The current status of the networks will be described, alongside with preliminary results. In addition, future projects, CCD photometry and broadband meteor color camera system, will be discussed.

Kingery, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Is Ice-Rafted Sediment in a North Pole Marine Record Evidence for Perennial Sea-ice Cover?

Ice-rafted sediments of Eurasian and North American origin are found consistently in the upper part (13 Ma BP to present) of the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) ocean core from the Lomonosov Ridge, near the North Pole (approximately 88 degrees N). Based on modern sea-ice drift trajectories and speeds, this has been taken as evidence of the presence of a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from the middle Miocene onwards. However, other high latitude land and marine records indicate a long-term trend towards cooling broken by periods of extensive warming suggestive of a seasonally ice-free Arctic between the Miocene and the present. We use a coupled sea-ice slab-ocean model including sediment transport tracers to map the spatial distribution of ice-rafted deposits in the Arctic Ocean. We use 6 hourly wind forcing and surface heat fluxes for two different climates: one with a perennial sea-ice cover similar to that of the present day and one with seasonally ice-free conditions, similar to that simulated in future projections. Model results confirm that in the present-day climate, sea ice takes more than 1 year to transport sediment from all its peripheral seas to the North Pole. However, in a warmer climate, sea-ice speeds are significantly faster (for the same wind forcing) and can deposit sediments of Laptev, East Siberian and perhaps also Beaufort Sea origin at the North Pole. This is primarily because of the fact that sea-ice interactions are much weaker with a thinner ice cover and there is less resistance to drift. We conclude that the presence of ice-rafted sediment of Eurasian and North American origin at the North Pole does not imply a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, reconciling the ACEX ocean core data with other land and marine records.

Palaeoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2015

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

Ecosystems↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2015

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

West Africa↗
NASA NTRS2016

Update on the activities of the GGOS Bureau of Networks and Observations

The recently reorganized GGOS Bureau of Networks and Observations has many elements that are associated with building and sustaining the infrastructure that supports the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) through the development and maintenance of the International Terrestrial and Celestial Reference Frames, improved gravity field models and their incorporation into the reference frame, the production of precision orbits for missions of interest to GGOS, and many other applications. The affiliated Service Networks (IVS, ILRS, IGS, IDS, and now the IGFS and the PSMSL) continue to grow geographically and to improve core and co-location site performance with newer technologies. Efforts are underway to expand GGOS participation and outreach. Several groups are undertaking initiatives and seeking partnerships to update existing sites and expand the networks in geographic areas void of coverage. New satellites are being launched by the Space Agencies in disciplines relevant to GGOS. Working groups now constitute an integral part of the Bureau, providing key service to GGOS. Their activities include: projecting future network capability and examining trade-off options for station deployment and technology upgrades, developing metadata collection and online availability strategies; improving coordination and information exchange with the missions for better ground-based network response and space-segment adequacy for the realization of GGOS goals; and standardizing site-tie measurement, archiving, and analysis procedures. This poster will present the progress in the Bureau's activities and its efforts to expand the networks and make them more effective in supporting GGOS.

Networks↗
NASA NTRS2015

Triple-Pulsed Two-Micron Integrated Path Differential Absorption Lidar: A New Active Remote Sensing Capability with Path to Space

The two-micron wavelength is suitable for monitoring atmospheric water vapor and carbon dioxide, the two most dominant greenhouse gases. Recent advances in 2-micron laser technology paved the way for constructing state-of-the-art lidar transmitters for active remote sensing applications. In this paper, a new triple-pulsed 2-micron integrated path differential absorption lidar is presented. This lidar is capable of measuring either two species or single specie with two different weighting functions, simultaneously and independently. Development of this instrument is conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. Instrument scaling for projected future space missions will be discussed.

Singh, Upendra N.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

This cost-benefit analysis assesses the benefits of the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results report a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Production cost savings of 35 to 58 percent were reported over the composite manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. A case study compared these three alternatives for manufacturing a cylinder of specified geometry, with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity, with cost analyses performed by the analogy and parametric methods. Furthermore, a scalability study was conducted for three tank diameters to assess the highest potential payoff of the ANNST process for manufacture of large-diameter cryogenic tanks. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was subsequently used with a group of selected subject matter experts to assess the value of the various benefits achieved by the ANNST method for potential stakeholders. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Stoner, Mary Cecilia↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mission Analysis and Aircraft Sizing of a Hybrid-Electric Regional Aircraft

The purpose of this study was to explore advanced airframe and propulsion technologies for a small regional transport aircraft concept (approximately 50 passengers), with the goal of creating a conceptual design that delivers significant cost and performance advantages over current aircraft in that class. In turn, this could encourage airlines to open up new markets, reestablish service at smaller airports, and increase mobility and connectivity for all passengers. To meet these study goals, hybrid-electric propulsion was analyzed as the primary enabling technology. The advanced regional aircraft is analyzed with four levels of electrification, 0 percent electric with 100 percent conventional, 25 percent electric with 75 percent conventional, 50 percent electric with 50 percent conventional, and 75 percent electric with 25 percent conventional for comparison purposes. Engine models were developed to represent projected future turboprop engine performance with advanced technology and estimates of the engine weights and flowpath dimensions were developed. A low-order multi-disciplinary optimization (MDO) environment was created that could capture the unique features of parallel hybrid-electric aircraft. It is determined that at the size and range of the advanced turboprop: The battery specific energy must be 750 watt-hours per kilogram or greater for the total energy to be less than for a conventional aircraft. A hybrid vehicle would likely not be economically feasible with a battery specific energy of 500 or 750 watt-hours per kilogram based on the higher gross weight, operating empty weight, and energy costs compared to a conventional turboprop. The battery specific energy would need to reach 1000 watt-hours per kilogram by 2030 to make the electrification of its propulsion an economically feasible option. A shorter range and/or an altered propulsion-airframe integration could provide more favorable results.

Antcliff, Kevin R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Developing a Fault Management Guidebook for Nasa's Deep Space Robotic Missions

NASA designs and builds systems that achieve incredibly ambitious goals, as evidenced by the Curiosity rover traversing on Mars, the highly complex International Space Station orbiting our Earth, and the compelling plans for capturing, retrieving and redirecting an asteroid into a lunar orbit to create a nearby a target to be investigated by astronauts. In order to accomplish these feats, the missions must be imbued with sufficient knowledge and capability not only to realize the goals, but also to identify and respond to off-nominal conditions. Fault Management (FM) is the discipline of establishing how a system will respond to preserve its ability to function even in the presence of faults. In 2012, NASA released a draft FM Handbook in an attempt to coalesce the field by establishing a unified terminology and a common process for designing FM mechanisms. However, FM approaches are very diverse across NASA, especially between the different mission types such as Earth orbiters, launch vehicles, deep space robotic vehicles and human spaceflight missions, and the authors were challenged to capture and represent all of these views. The authors recognized that a necessary precursor step is for each sub-community to codify its FM policies, practices and approaches in individual, focused guidebooks. Then, the sub-communities can look across NASA to better understand the different ways off-nominal conditions are addressed, and to seek commonality or at least an understanding of the multitude of FM approaches. This paper describes the development of the "Deep Space Robotic Fault Management Guidebook," which is intended to be the first of NASA's FM guidebooks. Its purpose is to be a field-guide for FM practitioners working on deep space robotic missions, as well as a planning tool for project managers. Publication of this Deep Space Robotic FM Guidebook is expected in early 2015. The guidebook will be posted on NASA's Engineering Network on the FM Community of Practice website so that it will be available to all NASA projects. Future plans for subsequent guidebooks for the other NASA sub-communities are proposed.

Fesq, Lorraine M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

Low Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and high levels of uncertainty make it challenging to develop cost estimates of new technologies in the R&D phase. It is however essential for NASA to understand the costs and benefits associated with novel concepts, in order to prioritize research investments and evaluate the potential for technology transfer and commercialization. This paper proposes a framework to perform a cost-benefit analysis of a technology in the R&D phase. This framework was developed and used to assess the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. Following the definition of a case study for a cryogenic tank cylinder of specified geometry, data was gathered through interviews with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity. This data served as the basis to produce process flowcharts and timelines, mass estimates, and rough order-of-magnitude cost and schedule estimates. The scalability of the results was subsequently investigated to understand the variability of the results based on tank size. Lastly, once costs and benefits were identified, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assess the relative value of these achieved benefits for potential stakeholders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results predict a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Compared to the composite manufacturing technique, these results predict cost savings of 35 to 58 percent; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and improved quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Ivanco, Marie L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Design Considerations for a Stopped-Rotor Cyclocopter for Venus Exploration

This paper considers the use of a cycloidal blade system as a means of providing lift and propulsive thrust as well as combined with a stopped rotor system, to create a stopped-rotor cyclocopter vehicle, during a mission to Venus. This stopped-rotor cyclocopter will be capable of flying at all atmospheric levels of Venus as well as landing on the surface for scientific investigation. Three reference conceptual designs with different stopped-rotor cyclocopter yaw angles are tested in RotCFD as well as a model of a hovering cyclorotor for comparison with past work in the literature and innovative study for future projects.

Husseyin, S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, longterm experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW x m(exp −1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with less than 1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

MODIS↗