Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “generalization error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Retrieving the Vertical Structure of the Effective Aerosol Complex Index of Refraction from a Combination of Aerosol in Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements During TARFOX

The largest uncertainty in estimates of the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate stems from uncertainties in the determination of their microphysical properties, including the aerosol complex index of refraction, which in turn determines their optical properties. A novel technique is used to estimate the aerosol complex index of refraction in distinct vertical layers from a combination of aerosol in situ size distribution and remote sensing measurements during the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX). In particular, aerosol backscatter measurements using the NASA Langley LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) instrument and in situ aerosol size distribution data are utilized to derive vertical profiles of the 'effective' aerosol complex index of refraction at 815 nm (i.e., the refractive index that would provide the same backscatter signal in a forward calculation on the basis of the measured in situ particle size distributions for homogeneous, spherical aerosols). A sensitivity study shows that this method yields small errors in the retrieved aerosol refractive indices, provided the errors in the lidar derived aerosol backscatter are less than 30% and random in nature. Absolute errors in the estimated aerosol refractive indices are generally less than 0.04 for the real part and can be as much as 0.042 for the imaginary part in the case of a 30% error in the lidar-derived aerosol backscatter. The measurements of aerosol optical depth from the NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) are successfully incorporated into the new technique and help constrain the retrieved aerosol refractive indices. An application of the technique to two TARFOX case studies yields the occurrence of vertical layers of distinct aerosol refractive indices. Values of the estimated complex aerosol refractive index range from 1.33 to 1.45 for the real part and 0.001 to 0.008 for the imaginary part. The methodology devised in this study provides, for the first time a complete set of vertically resolved aerosol size distribution and refractive index data, yielding the vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties required for the determination of aersol-induced radiative flux changes

Redemann, J.↗

Non-airborne conflicts: The causes and effects of runway transgressions

The 1210 ASRS runway transgression reports are studied and expanded to yield descriptive statistics. Additionally, a one of three subset was studied in detail for purposes of evaluating the causes, risks, and consequences behind trangression events. Occurrences are subdivided by enabling factor and flight phase designations. It is concluded that a larger risk of collision is associated with controller enabled departure transgressions over all other categories. The influence of this type is especially evident during the period following the air traffic controllers' strike of 1981. Causal analysis indicates that, coincidentally, controller enabled departure transgressions also, show the strongest correlations between causal factors. It shows that departure errors occur more often when visibility is reduced, and when multiple takeoff runways or intersection takeoffs are employed. In general, runway transgressions attributable to both pilot and controller errors arise from three problem areas: information transfer, awareness, and spatial judgement. Enhanced awareness by controllers will probably reduce controller enabled incidents.

Tarrel, Richard J.↗

Integrated Multi-satellite Evaluation for the Global Precipitation Measurement: Impact of Precipitation Types on Spaceborne Precipitation Estimation

An integrated multi-sensor assessment is proposed as a novel approach to advance satellite precipitation validation in order to provide users and algorithm developers with an assessment adequately coping with the varying performances of merged satellite precipitation estimates. Gridded precipitation rates retrieved from space sensors with quasi-global coverage feed numerous applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards caused by extreme events. Characterizing the error structure of satellite precipitation products is recognized as a major issue for the usefulness of these estimates. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission aims at unifying precipitation measurements from a constellation of low-earth orbiting (LEO) sensors with various capabilities to detect, classify and quantify precipitation. They are used in combination with geostationary observations to provide gridded precipitation accumulations. The GPM Core Obser­vatory satellite serves as a calibration reference for consistent precipitation retrieval algorithms across the constellation. The propagation of QPE uncertainty from LEO active/passive microwave (PMW) precipitation estimates to gridded QPE is addressed in this study, by focusing on the impact of precipitation typology on QPE from the Level-2 GPM Core Observatory Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to the Microwave Imager (GMI) to Level-3 IMERG precipitation over the Conterminous U.S. A high-resolution surface precipitation used as a consistent reference across scales is derived from the ground radar-based Multi-Radar/Multi­Sensor. While the error structure of the DPR, GMI and subsequent IMERG is complex because of the interaction of various error factors, systematic biases related to precipitation typology are consistently quantified across products. These biases display similar features across Level-2 and Level-3, highlighting the need to better resolve precipitation typology from space and the room for improvement in global­scale precipitation estimates. The integrated analysis and framework proposed herein applies more generally to precipitation estimates from sensors and error sources affecting low-earth orbiting satellites and derived gridded products.

Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstette↗

Integrated Multi-Satellite Evaluation for the Global Precipitation Measurement: Impact of Precipitation Types on Spaceborne Precipitation Estimation

Integrated multi-sensor assessment is proposed as a novel approach to advance satellite precipitation validation in order to provide users and algorithm developers with an assessment adequately coping with the varying performances of merged satellite precipitation estimates. Gridded precipitation rates retrieved from space sensors with quasi-global coverage feed numerous applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards caused by extreme events. Characterizing the error structure of satellite precipitation products is recognized as a major issue for the usefulness of these estimates. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission aims at unifying precipitation measurements from a constellation of low-earth orbiting (LEO) sensors with various capabilities to detect, classify and quantify precipitation. They are used in combination with geostationary observations to provide gridded precipitation accumulations. The GPM Core Observatory satellite serves as a calibration reference for consistent precipitation retrieval algorithms across the constellation. The propagation of QPE uncertainty from LEO active/passive microwave (PMW) precipitation estimates to gridded QPE is addressed in this study, by focusing on the impact of precipitation typology on QPE from the Level-2 GPM Core Observatory Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to the Microwave Imager (GMI) to Level-3 IMERG precipitation over the Conterminous U.S. A high-resolution surface precipitation used as a consistent reference across scales is derived from the ground radar-based Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor. While the error structure of the DPR, GMI and subsequent IMERG is complex because of the interaction of various error factors, systematic biases related to precipitation typology are consistently quantified across products. These biases display similar features across Level-2 and Level-3, highlighting the need to better resolve precipitation typology from space and the room for improvement in global-scale precipitation estimates. The integrated analysis and framework proposed herein applies more generally to precipitation estimates from sensors and error sources affecting low-earth orbiting satellites and derived gridded products.

Rainfall↗

Calibration of solar cells by the reference cell method - The spectral mismatch problem

The calibration of solar cells by means of solar simulators and calibrated reference cells has always been faced with the problem of errors due to source spectral irradiance mismatch and cell spectral response mismatch. A general expression is derived in this paper to enable calculation of mismatch error. The information required to make this calculation is the relative spectra responses of the test and reference cells, and the relative spectral irradiance of the simulator (over the spectral range defined by cell response). The spectral irradiance of the solar standard is assumed given. Experimental results are presented.

Seaman, C. H.↗

A Kalman filter for a two-dimensional shallow-water model

A two-dimensional Kalman filter is described for data assimilation for making weather forecasts. The filter is regarded as superior to the optimal interpolation method because the filter determines the forecast error covariance matrix exactly instead of using an approximation. A generalized time step is defined which includes expressions for one time step of the forecast model, the error covariance matrix, the gain matrix, and the evolution of the covariance matrix. Subsequent time steps are achieved by quantifying the forecast variables or employing a linear extrapolation from a current variable set, assuming the forecast dynamics are linear. Calculations for the evolution of the error covariance matrix are banded, i.e., are performed only with the elements significantly different from zero. Experimental results are provided from an application of the filter to a shallow-water simulation covering a 6000 x 6000 km grid.

Parrish, D. F.↗

Scientific impacts of wind direction errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (< 45°) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (< 7 m/s) conditions was made. Half of the winds over global oceans are below 7 m/s, in their long-term averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder highlatitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean’s function in modifying Earth’s climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Niño episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3–5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost.

Atlas, Robert↗

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Extending "Deep Blue" Aerosol Retrieval Coverage to Cases of Absorbing Aerosols Above Clouds: Sensitivity Analysis and First Case Studies

Cases of absorbing aerosols above clouds (AACs), such as smoke or mineral dust, are omitted from most routinely processed space-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) data products, including those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study presents a sensitivity analysis and preliminary algorithm to retrieve above-cloud AOD and liquid cloud optical depth (COD) for AAC cases from MODIS or similar sensors, for incorporation into a future version of the "Deep Blue" AOD data product. Detailed retrieval simulations suggest that these sensors should be able to determine AAC AOD with a typical level of uncertainty approximately 25-50 percent (with lower uncertainties for more strongly absorbing aerosol types) and COD with an uncertainty approximately10-20 percent, if an appropriate aerosol optical model is known beforehand. Errors are larger, particularly if the aerosols are only weakly absorbing, if the aerosol optical properties are not known, and the appropriate model to use must also be retrieved. Actual retrieval errors are also compared to uncertainty envelopes obtained through the optimal estimation (OE) technique; OE-based uncertainties are found to be generally reasonable for COD but larger than actual retrieval errors for AOD, due in part to difficulties in quantifying the degree of spectral correlation of forward model error. The algorithm is also applied to two MODIS scenes (one smoke and one dust) for which near-coincident NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sun photometer (AATS) data were available to use as a ground truth AOD data source, and found to be in good agreement, demonstrating the validity of the technique with real observations.

aerosols above clouds↗

Performance evaluation of integrated guidance and navigation systems

The method of linear covariance analysis is applied to the study of an aerospace vehicle integrated guidance-and-navigation system. This requires that the rms trajectory deviations of the vehicle be computed along with the rms errors of the navigation system. The technique is used to examine the performance of the shuttle orbiter vehicle's guidance-and-navigation system during the terminal phase of the landing. Essentially the same rms trajectory deviations were obtained from a single covariance run as from a 30-sample Monte-Carlo run set. Of particular interest in the study was the result that rms trajectory deviations for the integrated-system were generally significantly larger than the rms navigation errors.

Tao, Y. C.↗

Monte Carlo analysis of inaccuracies in estimated aircraft parameters caused by unmodeled flight instrumentation errors

An output error estimation algorithm was used to evaluate the effects of both static and dynamic instrumentation errors on the estimation of aircraft stability and control parameters. A Monte Carlo error analysis, using simulated cruise flight data, was performed for a high-performance military aircraft, a large commercial transport, and a small general aviation aircraft. The results indicate that unmodeled instrumentation errors can cause inaccuracies in the estimated parameters which are comparable to their nominal values. However, the corresponding perturbations to the estimated output response trajectories and characteristics equation pole locations appear to be relatively small. Control input errors and dynamic lags were found to be in the most significant of the error sources evaluated.

Hodge, W. F.↗

A theory of human error

Human error, a significant contributing factor in a very high proportion of civil transport, general aviation, and rotorcraft accidents is investigated. Correction of the sources of human error requires that one attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation operations is presented. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error.

Mcruer, D. T.↗

SEU System Analysis: Not Just the Sum of All Parts

Single event upset (SEU) analysis of complex systems is challenging. Currently, system SEU analysis is performed by component level partitioning and then either: the most dominant SEU cross-sections (SEUs) are used in system error rate calculations; or the partition SEUs are summed to eventually obtain a system error rate. In many cases, system error rates are overestimated because these methods generally overlook system level derating factors. The problem with overestimating is that it can cause overdesign and consequently negatively affect the following: cost, schedule, functionality, and validation/verification. The scope of this presentation is to discuss the risks involved with our current scheme of SEU analysis for complex systems; and to provide alternative methods for improvement.

Single Event Upset (SEU) Testing↗

A method of treating the non-grey error in total emittance measurements

In techniques for the rapid determination of total emittance, the sample is generally exposed to surroundings that are at a different temperature than the sample's surface. When the infrared spectral reflectance of the surface is spectrally selective, these techniques introduce an error into the total emittance values. Surfaces of aluminum overcoated with oxides of various thicknesses fall into this class. Because they are often used as temperature control coatings on satellites, their emittances must be accurately known. The magnitude of the error was calculated for Alzak and silicon oxide-coated aluminum and was shown to be dependent on the thickness of the oxide coating. The results demonstrate that, because the magnitude of the error is thickness-dependent, it is generally impossible or impractical to eliminate it by calibrating the measuring device.

Heaney, J. B.↗

Human factors of advanced technology (glass cockpit) transport aircraft

A three-year study of airline crews at two U.S. airlines who were flying an advanced technology aircraft, the Boeing 757 is discussed. The opinions and experiences of these pilots as they view the advanced, automated features of this aircraft, and contrast them with previous models they have flown are discussed. Training for advanced automation; (2) cockpit errors and error reduction; (3) management of cockpit workload; and (4) general attitudes toward cockpit automation are emphasized. The limitations of the air traffic control (ATC) system on the ability to utilize the advanced features of the new aircraft are discussed. In general the pilots are enthusiastic about flying an advanced technology aircraft, but they express mixed feelings about the impact of automation on workload, crew errors, and ability to manage the flight.

Wiener, Earl L.↗

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

Evaluation of Satellite Remote Sensing Albedo Retrievals over the Ablation Area of the Southwestern Greenland Ice Sheet

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo products have been validated over spatially uniform, snow-covered areas of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using the so-called single 'point-to-pixel' method. This study expands on this methodology by applying a 'multiple-point-to-pixel' method and examination of spatial autocorrelation (here using semivariogram analysis) by using in situ observations, high-resolution World- View-2 (WV-2) surface reflectances, and MODIS Collection V006 daily blue-sky albedo over a spatially heterogeneous surfaces in the lower ablation zone in southwest Greenland. Our results using 232 ground-based samples within two MODIS pixels, one being more spatial heterogeneous than the other, show little difference in accuracy among narrow and broad band albedos (except for Band 2). Within the more homogenous pixel area, in situ and MODIS albedos were very close (error varied from −4% to +7%) and within the range of ASD standard errors. The semivariogram analysis revealed that the minimum observational footprint needed for a spatially representative sample is 30 m. In contrast, over the more spatially heterogeneous surface pixel, a minimum footprint size was not quantifiable due to spatial autocorrelation, and far exceeds the effective resolution of the MODIS retrievals. Over the high spatial heterogeneity surface pixel, MODIS is lower than ground measurements by 4-7%, partly due to a known in situ undersampling of darker surfaces that often are impassable by foot (e.g., meltwater features and shadowing effects over crevasses). Despite the sampling issue, our analysis errors are very close to the stated general accuracy of the MODIS product of 5%. Thus, our study suggests that the MODIS albedo product performs well in a very heterogeneous, low-albedo, area of the ice sheet ablation zone. Furthermore, we demonstrate that single 'point-to-pixel' methods alone are insufficient in characterizing and validating the variation of surface albedo displayed in the lower ablation area. This is true because the distribution of in situ data deviations from MODIS albedo show a substantial range, with the average values for the 10th and 90th percentiles being −0.30 and 0.43 across all bands. Thus, if only single point is taken for ground validation, and is randomly selected from either distribution tails, the error would appear to be considerable. Given the need for multiple in-situ points, concurrent albedo measurements derived from existing AWSs, (low-flying vehicles (airborne or unmanned) and high-resolution imagery (WV-2)) are needed to resolve high sub-pixel variability in the ablation zone, and thus, further improve our characterization of Greenland's surface albedo.

Ablation zone↗

Altimetry, Orbits and Tides

The nature of the orbit error and its effect on the sea surface heights calculated with satellite altimetry are explained. The elementary concepts of celestial mechanics required to follow a general discussion of the problem are included. Consideration of errors in the orbits of satellites with precisely repeating ground tracks (SEASAT, TOPEX, ERS-1, POSEIDON, amongst past and future altimeter satellites) are detailed. The theoretical conclusions are illustrated with the numerical results of computer simulations. The nature of the errors in this type of orbits is such that this error can be filtered out by using height differences along repeating (overlapping) passes. This makes them particularly valuable for the study and monitoring of changes in the sea surface, such as tides. Elements of tidal theory, showing how these principles can be combined with those pertinent to the orbit error to make direct maps of the tides using altimetry are presented.

Colombo, O. L.↗