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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

Building a better framework for evaluating human well-being impacts in global change analysis: The example of energy security

Human well-being can be greatly impacted by the global environmental and socio-economic change captured in Integrated Models of Global Change (IMGCs). Though most IMGCs address some aspects of well-being, their underlying modeling approach and ‘philosophy’ differ widely, and some key elements – like energy security – are omitted. In this report, we describe a project in which we set out to a create a framework through which the well-being dimensions of the household are connected to key drivers of socio-economic and environmental change – and how the needed metrics, data and modeling methods can be brought to bear. We focus on the well-being dimensions of energy, and lay out the necessary elements to capturing household energy security – using household energy burden as the relevant metric. We begin by showing the conceptual linkage of energy burden to environmental drivers like temperature change, using a simple and straightforward conceptual framework. We then go further to use the example of GCAM-USA to show how some key analytical features of the model can provide insight into how energy security across different groups can change along alternative pathways to sustainability. We compare our preliminary assessment of household energy burden to existing data and suggest further steps to improve and refine this analysis in future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 6: Universal Access to Safe and Comfortable Home Temperatures

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and cooling technologies as means to increase access to safe and comfortable home temperatures. Lack of cooling access and use can have severe health impacts on building occupants during heat waves. Specifically, NREL developed and used a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We compared a baseline scenario with seven upgrade scenarios. Five scenarios cooled the entire household and featured cooling systems at varying efficiency levels with various improvements to the envelope, roof, and shading, and two scenarios cooled a single room in a household with no prior cooling using either a room air-conditioning or a heat pump system. For each scenario, we evaluated impacts on utility bills, payback periods, and changes in energy burdens, as well as ability to achieve safe and comfortable temperatures. We also examined the effects of building types (multifamily vs. single-family) on indoor air temperatures. Based on the results of modeling, analysis, and community guidance, we identified six short-term and two long-term strategies for improving access to building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for Los Angeles' low-income households during heat waves. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

air conditioning↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Information Searching in the Residential Solar PV Market

This paper examines the consumer information search behavior of households in San Diego County with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. We focus on whether solar PV households financing the technology through third-party ownership (TPO) versus host-ownership (HO), which is equivalent to leasing or buying goods in other markets, have heterogeneous preferences as reflected by information search. Conditional on adoption, we find that TPO households tend to seek more information on home modifications required for solar installation whereas HO households seek more information on the financial returns of solar investments. These preferences may be correlated with the consumption of other goods and services, and thus, if used to inform marketing strategies, our results could help reduce solar PV customer acquisition costs and accelerate technology diffusion. They also have indirect implications for marketing goods and services in other contexts where consumers exhibit similar preferences.

California↗

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Socioeconomic Effects of Pension Spending: Evidence from Spain

The purpose of this study is to provide broader understanding of the significant role that the pension system has in the Spanish economy by estimating the sectoral production, employment and income sustained by pensioners' consumption. Based on input-output tables by the World Input-Output Database and consumption data from the Household Budget Survey by the Spanish Statistical Office, a demoeconomic model is applied to quantify the direct impacts, indirect impacts from interindustry links and induced impacts from income-consumption connections over a nine-year period (2006–2014). Then, the factors driving the evolution of total output, employment and value added during such period have been examined by using structural decomposition analysis. The growing participation of consumption by pensioner households in final demand had proven crucial during the 2008 crisis to alleviate the negative trend in production and employment derived from the collapse in consumption suffered by the rest of households. Determining the underlying factors driving changes in both employment and income during the 2008 crisis can be of interest in political decision-making on the sustainability of the Spanish pension system. The results of estimating both the employment and income supported by pensioners' consumption reveal the significant stabilizing effect of the public spending on pensions, particularly during the 2008 crisis. The current Spanish approach of attaining the pension system sustainability by merely reducing social protection costs ignores the adverse consequences of a lower pensioners' demand. This paper addresses an alternative view in which pension spending is not considered a burden on economic growth but rather a means of improving the level of production and employment.

employment↗

2011 Atlanta, Georgia, Regional Travel Survey

The 2011 Regional Travel Survey collected trip data from households across 20 counties in and around Atlanta, Georgia, to improve regional travel demand forecasts. The survey was conducted by PTV NuStats, GeoStats, and PG Americas Inc. on behalf of the Atlanta Regional Commission. The goal was to collect trip data from a minimum of 10,000 households with a subsample of 1,000 households providing global positioning system (GPS) data. The GPS add-on consisted of two sample groups. The first sample group was provided with GPS devices to install in their personal vehicles (797 vehicles) to collect the speed and location of a vehicle during an assigned study period. The second sample group (1,653 participants) was provided with a wearable GPS device to collect the speed and location of an individual during an assigned study period. People participating in the wearable add-on part of the study were chosen because their travel diaries reported use of public transit in day-to-day travel. Each GPS participant was grouped into either the spring phase (March to May 2011) or the fall phase (July to September 2011), and data were recorded for a maximum of seven days for vehicle units and three days for wearable units.

1Hz data↗

2014 Madison County, Indiana, Heartland in Motion Transportation Study

The 2014 Heartland in Motion Transportation Study collected household demographics and travel information from Madison County, Indiana, residents and evaluated preferred travel options between the county and Indianapolis, Indiana. Resource Systems Group administered the study for the Madison County Council of Governments. Prior to conducting the main survey in February to March 2014, a pilot study was conducted in December 2013 to evaluate the methods, approach, and response rates. The main study data collection occurred while public schools were in session, prior to spring break, and included a household travel survey and stated preference experiments. Households were asked to provide details of their trips for one weekday.

1Hz data↗

2002 Champaign-Urbana Urbanized Area Transportation Study

This travel survey, conducted by Champaign County Regional Planning Commission, collected daily weekday travel data from 395 urbanized-area households—accounting for every individual 12 years old or older—in the Champaign-Urbana-Savoy region. The information gathered from the survey was used to forecast future transportation demand and update the Champaign Urbana Urbanized Area Transportation Study Long Range Transportation Plan 2035. Of the 395 households recruited for the study, 362 completed their travel logs. The household travel survey was completed during the summer and fall of 2002, and it was the first large-scale attempt at collecting single-weekday travel data in Champaign, Urbana, and Savoy.

1Hz data↗

1998 North Front Range (NFR) MPO

The North Front Range Travel Survey was a comprehensive study of travel behavior throughout the north front range of Colorado. The primary purpose of the survey was to provide a picture of travel patterns and characteristics of travelers in the Denver region. The survey was part of four primary surveys under the Regional Travel Behavior Inventory—a collaborative effort among the Denver Regional Council of Governments in partnership with the Regional Transportation District, the Colorado Department of Transportation, and the Regional Air Quality Council. The survey, conducted from October to January, provided demographic and household-based trip information for household members age 16 and older from 13,348 households. A 24-hour travel diary was provided to respondents to record their travel.

1Hz data↗

1996 Bay Area Travel Study Wave 2

The 1996 Bay Area Travel Study, conducted by the Metropolitan Transportation Commssion, collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel data for 3,618 households in California's nine-county Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties. The goal of the study was to collect information on activities for all people in each household, regardless of age or relationship. Respondents were asked to record all activities, including trips, over a two-day period. The data gathered during the survey will be used for the area's long-term transportation and air quality planning needs. The survey collected both weekday and weekend multi-day data and was the first activity-based survey conducted in the Bay Area. It also included separate sub-projects. A stated preference congestion pricing survey was administered to 150 of the respondents with a follow-up survey conducted with 110 participants. A follow-up survey was also completed by over half of the 3,618 respondent households to update contact and demographic information. These participants were then used as a panel sample for the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (NuStats Research and Consulting 1999).

1Hz data↗

Activating Opportunity Zones for Rapid Solar+Storage Deployment in Low Income Communities (Final Report)

Millions of Texans choose their own power provider, giving them the option to have low-cost and even renewable energy delivered through their retail electric plan. However, Texans with less disposable income often pay more for electricity and have limited access to green energy and emergency backup power even though the costs of solar and wind power are at record lows and continue to decline. The Powered for Good initiative aimed to help deliver clean, affordable, 100% renewable electricity to low-income households in Texas’s Competitive Retail Areas, where households can choose their electricity provider. Objectives: The primary goal of this project was to develop and validate one or more affordable solar+storage products (i.e., priced less than of $0.14/kWh) that Retail Electricity Providers (REP) can offer to LI households. The team achieved three objectives: 1. Investigate how to best reduce electricity costs and increase availability of emergency power for LI customers; 2. Build momentum for, and facilitate an approach to, a Texas-based pilot deployment of such solar+storage products, with a goal of greatly expanding this approach to a large segment of the LI population in Texas; 3. Provide the structural framework, finance model, and roadmap to potentially increase investment of solar+storage projects in LI communities across U.S. states when modified to meet their state-specific laws and regulations. The team evaluated the market of viable solutions for low-income Texans through interviews and focus groups with professionals and residents with lived experience. The team then piloted a low-cost retail electric product. Following the pilot, the team developed educational materials, including fact sheets, a Go Green Save Green interactive guide, and an Electricity Bill Analysis Tool. The team is now working to increase power resilience and reduce energy insecurity with micro solar and storage in partnership with local entities in the Harris County area. Key Findings: Informed by Powered for Good research, including the experiences on Texas residents and electricity system experts, the Powered for Good team developed a pilot that was implemented by Energy Well Texas, a new company formed in late 2020. The pilot featured a combination of a 100% clean residential energy offering delivered through the electrical grid plus a selection of batteries, lights and a solar panel that provided participants with varying levels of backup power. For the 8 customers who submitted previous bills, the Energy Well Texas pilot reduced energy bills by about 30%. In Houston, residents earning less than 30% of Area median Income (AMI) spend an average 13% of their income on energy or about $1,555 per year. Repeating the pilot results for these residents could yield $466 in savings per customer or about 4% of their income. While this will not end energy poverty, it is a big step toward that goal. The Powered for Good and Energy Well Texas teams are currently planning their post-pilot phase of service offerings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Short-term apartment-level load forecasting using a modified neural network with selected auto-regressive features

Residential electricity load profiles and their diversity have become increasingly important to realize the benefits of Smart or Transactive Energy Networks (TENs). An important element of TENs will be practical, accurate, and implementable residential load forecasting techniques. While there have been many approaches to short-term load forecasting, few have included forecasting for individual households, partly because the high volatility and idiosyncrasies present in individual household load data can pose significant challenges. In this study, we develop a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory-based neural network with Selected Autoregressive Features (termed a CLSAF model) to improve short-term household electricity load forecasting accuracy by employing three strategies: autoregressive features selection, exogenous features selection, and a “default” state to avoid overfitting at times of high load volatility. We include aggregations of apartments to floor and building level, because utilities may favor transactive approaches that rely on aggregator models, e.g., a cluster of consumers as opposed to an individual. We demonstrate that the CLSAF model, by virtue of its enhanced feature representation and modest computational resources, can accomplish load forecasting in a multi-family residential building across three spatial granularities (individual apartment/household, floor, and building levels), with an accuracy improvement of up to 25% compared to a persistence model. We propose a data screening technique to characterize time-series electricity-load data. This technique is suitable for integration into a TEN ecosystem and allows one to estimate confidence levels of the load forecasts to optimize computational resources and the risks associated with uncertain forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Thermoelectric heating and cooling–integrated dishwasher with thermal energy storage

Household dishwashers must address several performance goals: maximize washing and drying performance, while minimizing cycle duration, energy consumption, and water consumption. This study develops and examines a novel thermoelectric heating and cooling (TEHC) system with thermal energy storage applied to a household dishwasher (DW), aiming to improve the energy and drying performance of a commercially-available dishwasher while maintaining its washing performance, water consumption, and cycle duration. Experimental testing conducted on the novel TEHC-DW system demonstrates an 8.7% reduction in total energy consumption, lowering the per-cycle usage to 0.952 kWh, and a 40% reduction in energy consumption for internal water heating. The novel TEHC-DW system also demonstrates better drying performance, shortening the drying time by 42% to reach the same remaining moisture content as a commercially-available system. In addition, a resistance-capacitance network model is developed that predicts total drying time, total energy consumption, and the highest temperature reached in the tub (53.4 °C). The model accuracy is validated with experimental data (within ±1 K), and the model functions as a design tool via a parametric study to evaluate the next-generation design and the effect of the number of thermoelectric modules and thermoelectric driving force (i.e., current). Overall, this study demonstrates the potential for TEHC technology to improve energy efficiency and drying performance in household dishwashers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The role of building characteristics, demographics, and urban heat islands in shaping residential energy use

This study assesses the effects of residential building structure, socio-demographics, and ambient temperature conditions of a neighborhood to overall energy expenditures of a household. Using annual utility billing data, existing tax-lot records, temperature data, and U.S. Census demographic data, we ask two research questions: (1) What role do differences in neighborhood ambient heat, structural conditions and behavior play in helping to explain residential energy use? And (2) In what ways do energy expenditures spatially cluster in relation to urban heat islands? Using linear regression, spatial regression, and spatial clustering techniques, we evaluated the role of physical location of these households in relation to ambient temperatures. Significant positive relationships among energy expenditures and building size, average household size, White population, and population over 65 were observed; Significant negative relationships among energy expenditures and building density, renter population and population with a bachelor’s degree or higher were also observed. Negative relationships among morning and afternoon measures of heat, suggest that some areas spend less on energy use as a result of the neighborhood scale thermal environment. Spatial analysis of ambient temperature and energy expenditures show that energy use throughout the city is spatially clustered, with more affluent areas using more energy, regardless of whether heat islands are present. The results help to frame the role that increasing ambient temperatures in cities play in the spatial disparity in energy demand.

Residential Buildings, Energy Expenditure, Socio-d↗