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NASA NTRS2012

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A comparative study of turbulence decay using Navier-Stokes and a discrete particle simulation

A comparative study of the two dimensional temporal decay of an initial turbulent state of flow is presented using a direct Navier-Stokes simulation and a particle method, ranging from the near continuum to more rarefied regimes. Various topics related to matching the initial conditions between the two simulations are considered. The determination of the initial velocity distribution function in the particle method was found to play an important role in the comparison. This distribution was first developed by matching the initial Navier-Stokes state of stress, but was found to be inadequate beyond the near continuum regime. An alternative approach of using the Lees two-sided Maxwellian to match the initial strain-rate is discussed. Results of the comparison of the temporal decay of mean kinetic energy are presented for a range of Knudsen numbers. As expected, good agreement was observed for the near continuum regime, but the differences found for the more rarefied conditions were unexpectedly small.

Goswami, A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Chaotic behavior and fluid dynamics

It is shown that while fluids are very complicated systems having many degrees of freedom, the basic mechanism underlying the observed chaotic behavior of fluid turbulence may not require the consideration of many degrees of freedom. Simple dynamical systems display erratic and chaotic behavior reminiscent of turbulence, the key to which is the 'sensitivity to initial conditions' introduced by Ruelle (1978). Simple models which are sensitive to initial data and have permitted workers to study chaotic behavior are described, with attention to the Lorenz equations, Landau's idea of a continuous transition to turbulence via an infinite cascade of bifurcations, and one-dimensional maps.

Yorke, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Chemical zoning and homogenization of olivines in ordinary chondrites and implications for thermal histories of chondrules

The extent and degree of homogenization of chemical zoning of olivines in type 3 ordinary chondrites is studied in order to obtain some constraints on cooling histories of chondrites. Based on Mg-Fe and CaO zoning, olivines in type 3 chondrites are classified into four types. A single chondrule usually contains olivines with the same type of zoning. Microporphyritic olivines show all four zoning types. Barred olivines usually show almost homogenized chemical zoning. The cooling rates or burial depths needed to homogenize the chemical zoning are calculated by solving the diffusion equation, using the zoning profiles as an initial condition. Mg-Fe zoning of olivine may be altered during initial cooling, whereas CaO zoning is hardly changed. Barred olivines may be homogenized during initial cooling because their size is relatively small. To simulated microporphyritic olivine chondrules, cooling from just below the liquidus at moderately high rates is preferable to cooling from above the liquidus at low rates. For postaccumulation metamorphism of type 3 chondrites to keep Mg-Fe zoning unaltered, the maximum metamorphic temperature must be less than about 400 C if cooling rates based on Fe-Ni data are assumed. Calculated cooling rates for both Fa and CaO homogenization are consistent with those by Fe-Ni data for type 4 chondrites. A hot ejecta blanket several tens of meters thick on the surface of a parent body is sufficient to homogenize Mg-Fe zoning if the temperature of the blanket is 600-700 C. Burial depths for petrologic types of ordinary chondrites in a parent body heated by Al-26 are broadly consistent with those previously proposed.

Miyamoto, Masamichi↗

NASA NTRS1987

Effect of a localized minimum in equatorial field strength on resistive tearing instability in the geomagnetotail

A two-dimensional, resistive-MHD computer code is used to investigate the spontaneous reconnection of magnetotaillike configurations. The initial conditions adopted in the simulations are of two types: (1) in which the equatorial normal magnetic field component B(ze) declines monotonically down the tail, and (2) in which B(ze) exhibits a deep minimum in the near-earth plasma sheet. To represent the case where the earthward convection stops before the X line forms, zero-flow boundary conditions are imposed at the edges of the computational box. The initial configurations are in equilibrium and table within ideal MHD. The dynamic evolution of the system starts after the resistivity is turned on. The main results of these simulations basically support the neutral-line model of substorms and confirm Birn's (1980) computer studies. Spontaneous formation of an X-type neutral point and a single O-type plasmoid with strong tailward flow on the tailward side of the X point is found. The time interval from the turning on of the resistivity to the formation of a plasmoid is much shorter in the case where there is an initial deep minimum. A simple analytic calculation is also carried out to demonstrate why the configuration with a deep minimum is more susceptible to the development of the neutral point.

Hau, L.-N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Euler/Navier-Stokes zonal scheme with applications to separated and isolated-vortex flows

An Euler/Navier-Stokes zonal scheme with boundary-layer compatibility conditions is developed to economically compute separated and vortex flows. The scheme is based on dividing the flow region into zones, where different levels of mathematical approximations of the governing equations are used in each zone. The scheme is applied to two specific problems: the two dimensional flow over a blunt leading-edge plate and the quasi-axisymmetric flow of an isolated vortex core. In the first problem, the computational domain is divided into inner and outer zones where the Navier-Stokes and Euler equations are used, respectively. On the downstream boundary of the computational domain, boundary-layer compatibility conditions are used. In the second problem, boundary-layer-like equations for slender, compressible, vortex flows are developed. A compatibility condition has been used to ensure consistency of the boundary and initial conditions. The outer boundary conditions of the flow are derived from Euler equations for a stream surface.

Kandil, Osama A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prediction skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains flash drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) models

Rapid-onset droughts, known as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. Here, we investigate the prediction skill of the extreme 2012 flash drought over the U.S. Great Plains at subseasonal lead times (3 weeks or more in advance) in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). An additional comprehensive set of subseasonal hindcasts with NASA’s GEOS model, a SubX model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. The results show that the prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While skillful predictions are restricted to within the first two forecast weeks in most models, skill is considerably better (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization once dry soil conditions are established, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Evidence is provided that the importance of soil moisture initialization applies more generally to central U.S. summer flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Anthony M DeAngelis↗

NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required to represent the ejected foam. The exponents were evaluated by least squares method from experimental data. The equation is used and it can represent multiple factors in other problems as well; for example, evaluation of fatigue life, creep life, fracture toughness, and structural fracture, as well as optimization functions. The software is rather simplistic. Required inputs are initial value, final value, and an exponent for each factor. The number of factors is open-ended. The value is updated as each factor is evaluated. If a factor goes to zero, the previous value is used in the evaluation.

Abumeri, Galib H.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A method for calculating unsteady turbulent boundary layers in two- and three-dimensional flows.

The governing equations for an unsteady turbulent boundary layer on a swept infinite cylinder, composed of a continuity equation, a pair of momentum equations and a pair of rate equations for the shear stress, based on the turbulent kinetic-energy equation, are solved numerically. These rate equations for the shear-stress express a balance between the convection, production, dissipation and diffusion of the turbulent shear stress components. Due to the physical model of turbulence employed, this system of equations is hyperbolic. An explicit, second-order accurate, conditionally stable difference scheme for this system, together with appropriate boundary and initial conditions, is formulated and developed into a computer program. Calculations for oscillating free stream flows with no pressure gradient show significant unsteady effects on the turbulent boundary layer.

Singleton, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Long range orbital error estimation for applications satellites

A method of optimum orbital averaging was employed to study the long range accuracy potential of polar orbiting applications satellites. This approach involved the determination of the boundary conditions of one set of differential equations of motion by adjusting the initial conditions in a least square sense with the use of data generated by another set of differential equations of motion.

Bonavito, N. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A physical approach to the numerical treatment of boundaries in gas dynamics

Two types of boundaries are considered: rigid walls, and artificial (open) boundaries which were arbitrarily drawn somewhere across a wider flow field. A set of partial differential equations (typically, the Euler equations) has an infinite number of solutions, each one defined by a set of initial and boundary conditions. The initial conditions remaining the same, any change in the boundary conditions will produce a new solution. To pose the problem well, a necessary and sufficient number of boundary conditions are prescribed.

Moretti, G.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of photopole data reduction models

An analysis of the total impulse obtained from a buried explosive charge can be calculated from displacement versus time points taken from successive film frames of high speed motion pictures of the explosive event. The indicator of that motion is a pole and baseplate (photopole), which is placed on or within the soil overburden. Here, researchers are concerned with the precision of the impulse calculation and ways to improve that precision. Also examined here is the effect of each initial condition on the curve fitting process. It is shown that the zero initial velocity criteria should not be applied due to the linear acceleration versus time character of the cubic power series. The applicability of the new method to photopole data records whose early time motions are obscured is illustrated.

Cheek, James B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The galactic globular cluster system

We explore correlations between various properties of Galactic globular clusters, using a database on 143 objects. Our goal is identify correlations and trends which can be used to test and constrain theoretical models of cluster formation and evolution. We use a set of 13 cluster parameters, 9 of which are independently measured. Several arguments suggest that the number of clusters still missing in the obscured regions of the Galaxy is of the order of 10, and thus the selection effects are probably not severe for our sample. Known clusters follow a power-law density distribution with a slope approximately -3.5 to -4, and an apparent core with a core radius approximately 1 kpc. Clusters show a large dynamical range in many of their properties, more so for the core parameters (which are presumably more affected by dynamical evolution) than for the half-light parameters. There are no good correlations with luminosity, although more luminous clusters tend to be more concentrated. When data are binned in luminosity, several trends emerge: more luminous clusters tend to have smaller and denser cores. We interpret this as a differential survival effect, with more massive clusters surviving longer and reaching more evolved dynamical states. Cluster core parameters and concentrations also correlate with the position in the Galaxy, with clusters closer to the Galactic center or plane being more concentrated and having smaller and denser cores. These trends are more pronounced for the fainter (less massive) clusters. This is in agreement with a picture where tidal shocks form disk or bulge passages accelerate dynamical evolution of clusters. Cluster metallicities do not correlate with any other parameter, including luminosity and velocity dispersion; the only detectable trend is with the position in the Galaxy, probably reflecting Zinn's disk-halo dichotomy. This suggests that globular clusters were not self-enriched systems. Velocity dispersions show excellent correlations with luminosity and surface brightness. Their origin is not well understood, but they may well reflect initial conditions of cluster formation, and perhaps even be used to probe the initial density perturbation spectrum on a approximately 10(exp 6) solar mass scale. Core radii and concentrations play a role of a 'second parameter' in these correlations. While a global manifold of cluster properties has a high statistical dimensionality (D greater than 4), a subset of structural, photometric, and dynamical parameters forms a statistically three-dimensional family, as expected from objects following King models; we propose to call this set of quantities the King Manifold. Some of the observed correlations may be usable as distance indicator relations for globular clusters.

Djorgovski, S.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Solute partitioning under continuous cooling conditions as a cooling rate indicator

A model of solute partitioning in a finite body under conditions of continuous cooling is developed for the determination of cooling rates from concentration profile data, and applied to the partitioning of zirconium between ilmenite and ulvospinel in the Apollo 15 Elbow Crater rocks. Partitioning in a layered composite solid is described numerically in terms of concentration profiles and diffusion coefficients which are functions of time and temperature, respectively; a program based on the model can be used to calculate concentration profiles for various assumed cooling rates given the diffusion coefficients in the two phases and the equilibrium partitioning ratio over a range of temperatures. In the case of the Elbow Rock gabbros, the cooling rates are calculated from measured concentration ratios 10 microns from the interphase boundaries under the assumptions of uniform and equilibrium initial conditions at various starting temperatures. It is shown that the specimens could not have had uniform concentrations profiles at the previously suggested initial temperature of 1350 K. It is concluded that even under conditions where the initial temperature, grain sizes and solute diffusion coefficients are not well characterized, the model can be used to estimate the cooling rate of a grain assemblage to within an order of magnitude.

Onorato, P. I. K.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Validity of disk galaxy simulations

Several n-body calculations have simulated disk galaxies by means of a large number of self-gravitating particles moving on a plane, and have indicated many features in agreement with observation, but also some major disagreements. Some gaps remain in the arguments that results of these simulations represent physically valid consequences of a model in which a disk galaxy is composed entirely of stars. A new formulation of the n-body calculation was designed in polar coordinates, and results obtained with it are used to complete the arguments that the disagreement with observation represents a deficiency in the physical model. The physical process of formation of barlike or two-armed spiral structures from a variety of initial conditions is described; the mechanism is not an m = 2 instability in an initially axisymmetric configuration.

Miller, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The analysis and simulation of compressible turbulence

Compressible turbulent flows at low turbulent Mach numbers are considered. Contrary to the general belief that such flows are almost incompressible, (i.e., the divergence of the velocity field remains small for all times), it is shown that even if the divergence of the initial velocity field is negligibly small, it can grow rapidly on a non-dimensional time scale which is the inverse of the fluctuating Mach number. An asymptotic theory which enables one to obtain a description of the flow in terms of its divergence-free and vorticity-free components has been developed to solve the initial-value problem. As a result, the various types of low Mach number turbulent regimes have been classified with respect to the initial conditions. Formulae are derived that accurately predict the level of compressibility after the initial transients have disappeared. These results are verified by extensive direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence.

Erlebacher, Gordon↗