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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Model-Free Vehicle Path-Tracking via Fast-Converging Prescribed-Time Newton-Based Extremum-Seeking Control

Model-free control (MFC) offers a simple and effective approach to automated vehicle path-tracking without requiring an explicit plant model for control law design. However, gain tuning in MFC is typically carried out through trial-and-error, which can be time-consuming and may lead to suboptimal performance. To address this limitation, extremum-seeking-based adaptive MFC has shown promise by enabling real-time adaptation of control gains, without relying on a predefined vehicle model. Nonetheless, existing ESC approaches often suffer from slow convergence. This paper integrates MFC, employing longitudinal and lateral ultra-local models of a rear-wheel-drive vehicle, with a novel prescribed-time (PT) Newton-based extremum-seeking control (ESC) strategy that ensures rapid convergence of control gains within the prescribed time. Unlike conventional gradient-based ESC methods, the PT Newton-based ESC leverages artificial delays and time-periodic gains, not only to guarantee convergence within the specified time, but also to compensate for feedback delays. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves gain adaptation speed and tracking accuracy. This work advances adaptive model-free vehicle control by offering a high-performance, delay-resilient alternative to existing ESCMFC frameworks.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A three-dimensional laser ray-tracing methodology for radiation-hydrodynamics simulations

We report on a methodology for performing laser ray-tracing in three spatial dimensions for radiation-hydrodynamics simulation codes. Our method, which is an extension of that developed in Haines et al., Comput. Fluids 201, 104478 (2020), utilizes an automatically generated separate mesh for the laser ray-tracing from the radiation-hydrodynamics mesh. This enables the laser mesh to be tailored to minimize ray noise with significantly fewer rays than would be required when the ray-tracing is performed on the radiation-hydrodynamics mesh, primarily by allowing the use of high-aspect-ratio cells that are not suitable for hydrodynamics solvers. For a planar target, we show that our method provides a ≈ 100× reduction in computational expense to achieve a fixed level of ray noise relative to ray-tracing directly on the radiation-hydrodynamics mesh. The relatively low ray requirement also enables efficient computation of cross-beam energy transfer. Each cell in the logically cubic laser mesh is a non-convex dodecahedron with triangular sides, and numerical integration of the ray trajectories and inverse bremsstrahlung is performed by mapping each cell to the unit cube. We will describe our methodology in detail as well as its implementation in the xRAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code, discuss performance, and present the results from applying the methodology to test problems with analytic solutions for laser ray-tracing through a quadratic density gradient with an analytic solution as well as for a laser-driven heat front. In 3D radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of laser-driven experiments performed on the National Ignition Facility, laser ray-tracing with our methodology uses less than 1% of total computational time while introducing acceptably low levels of ray noise.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spin Decoherence in VOPc@graphene Nanoribbon Complexes

Carbon nanoribbons or nanographene qubit arrays can facilitate quantum-to-quantum transduction between light, charge, and spin, making them an excellent testbed for fundamental science in quantum coherent systems and for the construction of higher-level qubit circuits. Here, in this work, we study spin decoherence due to coupling with a surrounding nuclear spin bath of an electronic molecular spin of a vanadyl phthalocyanine (VOPc) molecule integrated onto an armchair-edged graphene nanoribbon (GNR). Density functional theory (DFT) is used to obtain ground-state atomic configurations. Decay of spin coherence in Hahn echo experiments is then simulated using the cluster correlation expansion method with a spin Hamiltonian involving hyperfine and electric field gradient tensors calculated from DFT. We find that the decoherence time T 2 is anisotropic with respect to magnetic field orientation and determined only by the hydrogen nuclear spins on both VOPc and GNR. Large electron spin echo envelope modulation (ESEEM) due to nitrogen and vanadium nuclear spins is present at specific field ranges and can be completely suppressed by tuning the magnetic field. The relation between these field ranges and the hyperfine interactions is analyzed. The effects of interactions with the nuclear quadrupole moments are also studied, validating the applicability and limitations of the spin Hamiltonian when they are disregarded.

Hamiltonians↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energetic and structural control of polyspecificity in a multidrug transporter

Multidrug efflux pumps are dynamic molecular machines that drive antibiotic resistance by harnessing ion gradients to export chemically diverse substrates. Despite their clinical importance, the molecular principles underlying multidrug promiscuity and energy efficiency remain poorly understood. Using multiparametric deep mutational scanning across eight substrates and two energy conditions, we deconvolute the contributions of substrate recognition, energetic coupling, and protein stability, providing an integrated, high-resolution view of multidrug transport. We find that substrate specificity arises from a distributed network of residues extending beyond the binding site, with mutations that reshape binding, coupling, conformational flexibility, and membrane interactions. Further, we apply a pH-based selection scheme to measure the effect of mutation on pH-dependent transport efficiency. By integrating these data, we reveal a fundamental relationship between efficiency and promiscuity: Highly efficient variants exhibit broad substrate profiles, while inefficient variants are narrower. In conclusion, these findings establish a direct link between energy coupling and polyspecificity, uncovering the biochemical logic underlying multidrug transport.

Biological Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pellet triggering of edge localized modes in low collisionality pedestals at DIII-D

Edge localized modes (ELMs) are triggered using deuterium pellets injected into plasmas with ITER-relevant low collisionality pedestals, and the resulting peak ELM energy fluence is reduced by approximately 25%–50% relative to natural ELMs destabilized at similar pedestal pressures. Cryogenically frozen deuterium pellets are injected from the low-field side of the DIII-D tokamak at frequencies lower than the natural ELM frequency, and heat flux is measured by infrared cameras. Ideal MHD pedestal stability calculations show that without pellet injection, these low collisionality pedestals were limited by their current density (peeling-limited) rather than their pressure gradient (ballooning-limited). ELM triggering success correlates strongly with pellet mass, consistent with the theory that a large pressure perturbation is required to trigger an ELM in low collisionality discharges that are far from the ballooning stability boundary. For sufficiently large pellets, both instantaneous and time-integrated ELM energy deposition measured by infrared cameras is reduced with respect to naturally occurring ELMs at the inner strike point, which is the position where it is largest for natural ELMs. Energy fluence at the outer strike point is less effected. Cameras observing both heat flux and D-alpha emission often find significant toroidally asymmetric striations in the outboard far scrape-off layer resulting from ELMs that are triggered by pellets. Toroidal asymmetries at the inner strike point are similar between natural and pellet-triggered ELMs, indicating that the reduction in peak heat flux and total fluence at that location is robust for the conditions reported here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computationally Efficient Control Co-Design Optimization Framework with Mixed-Fidelity Fluid and Structure Analysis: OpenTurbineCoDe (OTCD) - ARPA-E ATLANTIS Phase I Project (Final Technical Report)

The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Aerodynamic Turbines Lighter and Afloat with Nautical Technologies and Integrated Servo-control (ATLANTIS) Program is to develop new technologies for floating offshore wind turbines, or wind farms, using the discipline of control co-design (CCD.) In this context, our goal is to develop a computationally efficient optimization framework for design of floating offshore wind turbines. Our specific aim is to utilize high-fidelity structural, aerodynamic, aero-structural tools, and to derive control-oriented reduced- or low-order models directly from the high-fidelity tools. We proposed a mixed-fidelity modeling approach which means that we are also using low- and mid-fidelity tools when necessary. This research is conducted by a multidisciplinary team consisting of Rutgers University, University of Michigan, Brigham Young University, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The computational framework, called OpenTurbineCoDe, is designed to integrate, where possible, traditional structural, aerodynamic, aeroelastic models (e.g., OpenFAST) and advanced control algorithms with higher fidelity simulation tools including Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) solvers, and three-dimensional structural finite element solvers. All the high-fidelity tools used in this research provide numerically exact gradients to facilitate both efficient optimization and local linearization for control implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Development and Analysis of a High-Fidelity Neutron Transport Sensor: The Quadrupole Detector Concept for Measurement of the Neutron Flux Gradient

Accurate reconstruction of the neutron flux distribution within a reactor core is essential for safe and efficient reactor operation. Traditional power shape synthesis in Light Water Reactors relies on hundreds of in-core detectors. However, this approach becomes impractical for Advanced Reactors and Microreactors due to limited space and harsh environments. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven methodology that combines high-fidelity modeling with real-time ex-core sensor measurements, enabling the reconstruction of core power distribution while minimizing the reliance on intrusive in-core instrumentation. This project began in FY24 and achieved two initial milestones: (1) the definition of a three-year development plan for a Digital Twin framework and (2) the development of high-fidelity neutronics models of the Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) using both MCNP6 and OpenMC. The PUR-1 reactor, a zero-power facility, was selected due to its suitability for neutronics-focused modeling and the availability of experimental data for validation. Both models were benchmarked using neutron flux measurements obtained from irradiated gold foils, which were strategically placed within the core during a dedicated campaign in July 2024. This report marks the continuation and completion of those foundational tasks. The OpenMC model has been refined (improved geometric accuracy, expanded cross-section libraries, and refined sampling) and validated using additional experimental data. An updated sensor design—based on quadrupole configuration—was designed to measure both ex-core flux and its spatial gradient. These measurements will serve as inputs to a neural network-based reconstruction algorithm. Finally, the methodology was demonstrated on a two-dimensional test case representative of the heterogeneous material composition of the PUR-1 reactor core. A neural network implementation of the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral equation was employed to solve the boundary value problem using peripheral sensor measurements. The preliminary results confirm the strong potential of the proposed approach for accurate and minimally invasive neutron flux reconstruction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance Evaluation of an Additively Manufactured ultra-High Operating Temperature SiC Solar-Thermal Air Receiver (HOTSSTAR) Test Module

Increasing operating temperatures of solar receivers is paramount to the efficiency of concentrated solar thermal and solar power systems. GE Aerospace Research in collaboration with Heliogen Inc and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is engaged in the development of ultra-High Operating Temperature SiC-matrix Solar Thermal Air Receiver (HOTSSTAR) enabled by additive manufacturing. HOTSSTAR goal is to demonstrate SiC receiver with air exit temperatures up to 1100oC. We discuss fabrication and on-sun test results of a prototype 50kWth test module. The receiver architecture is based on a radial airflow design and consists of a series of radial SiC receiver sectors organized around central absorber. These components were fabricated using binder-jet printed SiC followed by melt-infiltration reaction bonding process. To enhance the thermo-mechanical reliability of SiC test articles in thermal gradient/ shock environment of the application, the components were laminated with GE’s MI SiC CMC. A dedicated test facility was constructed at SNL Solar Tower to evaluate the operational performance of HOTSSTAR module under solar fluxes >200 W/cm2. We report on our final 50kW test module fabrication, integration at the test facility at Sandia, and discuss on-sun test results. We compare the performance of HOTSSTAR module relative to our model predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A time-parallel multiple-shooting method for large-scale quantum optimal control

Quantum optimal control plays a crucial role in quantum computing by providing the interface between compiler and hardware. Solving the optimal control problem is particularly challenging for multi-qubit gates, due to the exponential growth in computational complexity with the system's dimensionality and the deterioration of optimization convergence. To ameliorate the computational complexity of time-integration, this paper introduces a multiple-shooting approach in which the time domain is divided into multiple windows and the intermediate states at window boundaries are treated as additional optimization variables. Further, this enables parallel computation of state evolution across time-windows, significantly accelerating objective function and gradient evaluations. Since the initial state matrix in each window is only guaranteed to be unitary upon convergence of the optimization algorithm, the conventional gate trace infidelity is replaced by a generalized infidelity that is convex for non-unitary state matrices. Continuity of the state across window boundaries is enforced by equality constraints. A quadratic penalty optimization method is used to solve the constrained optimal control problem, and an efficient adjoint technique is employed to calculate the gradients in each iteration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical experiments on quantum Fourier transform gates in systems with 2, 3, and 4 qubits, noting a speedup of 80x for evaluating the gradient in the 4-qubit case, highlighting the method's potential for optimizing control pulses in multi-qubit quantum systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta Biome: a multiscale model integrating agent-based and metabolic networks to reveal spatial regulation in gut mucosal microbial communities

ABSTRACT Mucosal microbial communities (MMCs) are complex ecosystems near the mucosal layers of the gut essential for maintaining health and modulating disease states. Despite advances in high-throughput omics technologies, current methodologies struggle to capture the dynamic metabolic interactions and spatiotemporal variations within MMCs. In this work, we presentMetaBiome, a multiscale model integrating agent-based modeling (ABM), finite volume methods, and constraint-based models to explore the metabolic interactions within these communities. Integrating ABM allows for the detailed representation of individual microbial agents each governed by rules that dictate cell growth, division, and interactions with their surroundings. Through a layered approach—encompassing microenvironmental conditions, agent information, and metabolic pathways—we simulated different communities to showcase the potential of the model. Using ourin-silicoplatform, we explored the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of MMCs in the proximal small intestine and the cecum, simulating the physiological conditions of the two gut regions. Our findings revealed how specific microbes adapt their metabolic processes based on substrate availability and local environmental conditions, shedding light on spatial metabolite regulation and informing targeted therapies for localized gut diseases.MetaBiome provides a detailed representation of microbial agents and their interactions, surpassing the limitations of traditional grid-based systems. This work marks a significant advancement in microbial ecology, as it offers new insights into predicting and analyzing microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Our study presents a novel multiscale model that combines agent-based modeling, finite volume methods, and genome-scale metabolic models to simulate the complex dynamics of mucosal microbial communities in the gut. This integrated approach allows us to capture spatial and temporal variations in microbial interactions and metabolism that are difficult to study experimentally. Key findings from our model include the following: (i) prediction of metabolic cross-feeding and spatial organization in multi-species communities, (ii) insights into how oxygen gradients and nutrient availability shape community composition in different gut regions, and (iii) identification of spatiallyregulated metabolic pathways and enzymes inE. coli. We believe this work represents a significant advance in computational modeling of microbial communities and provides new insights into the spatial regulation of gut microbiome metabolism. The multiscale modeling approach we have developed could be broadly applicable for studying other complex microbial ecosystems.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Data Science Model for Detecting Intelligent Malware

This study focused on developing a robust artificial intelligence (AI) model capable of detecting and characterizing advanced malware in Internet of Things (IoT) devices using network data. By analyzing network traffic with various machine learning (ML) models, our AI model can identify and characterize malicious activities to significantly improve malware detection accuracy and reliability as compared to traditional methods. The developed AI/ML model was trained using network data from IoT devices, leveraging classifiers such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, and others to optimize detection performance. This project demonstrates a scalable framework for real-time malware detection and characterization in IoT networks, capable of identifying infected devices and facilitating the necessary steps to remove or isolate them, thereby preventing further infections. Although digital twin (DT) integration is not yet implemented in the current model, it represents a promising future enhancement. By creating a virtual replica of physical IoT devices, DT technology would allow for real-time monitoring and analysis without directly accessing operational technology, thus reducing the risk of compromising or reducing the performance of actual devices. This integration would further enhance the security of IoT ecosystems, combining AI technology to better flag and detect indications of malware-infected devices within a nuclear system environment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Federated Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection System for Synchrophasor Network Using Heterogeneous Data Sets: Preprint

Synchrophasor technology is widely deployed in the energy management system to monitor the grid health at micro level and perform necessary corrective actions in real time; however, integrated phasor devices and data aggregators are exposed to several cybersecurity threats. This paper proposes a federated ML(FML)-based ADS to detect several data integrity attacks in the synchrophasor network. The proposed approach integrates the horizontal FML technique and consists of substation-based local models and a control center-based global model. The proposed methodology includes training local models using heterogeneous data sets that include network and grid information and updating the global model through multiple iterations by sharing model gradients. Finally, the trained global model is applied to identify cyberattacks, normal operation, and physical events. To validate the proof of concept, we used synthetic data sets generated by Mississippi State University and Oak Ridge National Laboratory for training and testing the classification models using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's high performance computing resources. Our experimental results, computed through several performance measures, reveal that the proposed approach shows consistent performance during the binary, three-class, and multiclass classifications while ensuring privacy of synchrophasor data.

anomaly detection system↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Pro‐Angiogenic Immunoprotective Membrane for Cell Therapies

Abstract Immunoisolation strategies that rely on porous membranes play an important role in cell transplantation therapies to protect cells from the host's immune system. These membranes must possess immunoprotective properties while facilitating the transport of nutrients and cell products to maintain the functional integrity of encapsulated cells. An easy and scalable process is described to fabricate a dual function porous polymeric membrane that shields cells against immune cell attack and promotes vascularization to address the nutritional and oxygen requirements of transplanted cells. The fabrication process results in a membrane cross‐section with a gradient of nanopores to micropores that support cell immunoisolation and interfacial vascularization requirements, respectively. The membranes demonstrate excellent cell compatibility and effectively prevent T cell transmigration without compromising glucose diffusion and oxygen permeability. In a murine subcutaneous implantation model, membranes are stable for 60 days and exhibit significantly reduced fibrous capsules, with enhanced vascularization near the membrane. These porous polymeric membranes can potentially be used as pro‐angiogenic immunoprotective membranes for cell transplantation applications where maximizing cell viability and function is of critical importance.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive assessment of deep reinforcement learning approaches for economic dispatch in nuclear-driven microgrids

As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the effect of meso/submesoscale current–wave interactions on wave energy resource characterization at northeast U.S. coast

Wave energy is a promising renewable resource, but accurate assessment is difficult in regions with strong currents due to wave–current interactions (WCI). Here, this study develops a two-way coupled WCI model within the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework at 2 km resolution to improve wave energy characterization along the northeastern U.S. coast, including the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine. The model integrates WaveWatchIII (WWIII) and the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to enhance wave hindcasting by accounting for Doppler-shift, refraction, and nonlinear energy exchanges. Validation against buoy and satellite observations confirms model accuracy. Analysis shows that Doppler-shifting can alter wave power density by over 20%, while strong current gradients and shear distort wave crests via focusing/defocusing and stretching/squeezing, modifying wave direction and frequency. These processes together can induce wave power fluctuations of up to 40% on synoptic scales. Applying a 2.5 MW Ocean Energy Converter power matrix shows that WCI may change harvested energy by up to 100% in shallow-waters and 60% in deep-waters. These results underscore the importance of incorporating nonlinear WCI for reliable wave climate predictions and resource assessments in energetic coastal regions.

doppler-shift↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tokamak ITG-KBM transition benchmarking with the mixed variables/pullback transformation electromagnetic gyrokinetic scheme

Electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulation of high temperature plasma is required to predict confinement in magnetic fusion devices and has posed challenges for existing codes. In this paper, we demonstrate successful global gyrokinetic simulation of the ion temperature gradient-driven mode-kinetic ballooning mode transition in a toroidal fusion plasma test case using the mixed variables/pullback transformation (MV/PT) scheme with the particle-in-cell codes XGC and ORB5, and compare to results from a conventional continuum code from the literature. Furthermore, the MV/PT scheme combines explicit time integration with mitigation of the well-known electromagnetic gyrokinetic “cancelation problem.” We calculate eigenmodes in the electrostatic and parallel vector potentials, and find good agreement in growth rate, real frequency, and the normalized plasma pressure of mode transition.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electric polarization in inhomogeneous crystals

In this work, we derive the charge density up to second order in spatial gradient in inhomogeneous crystals using the semiclassical coarse graining procedure based on the wave packet method. It can be recast as divergence of polarization, whose first-order contribution consists of three parts, a perturbative correction to the original Berry connection expression, a topological part that can be written as an integral of the Chern-Simons 3-form, and a previously-unknown, quadrupolelike contribution. The topological part can be related to the quantized fractional charge carried by a vortex in two-dimensional systems. We then generalize our results to the multiband case and show that the quadrupolelike contribution plays an important role, as it makes the total polarization gauge-independent. Finally, we verify our theory in several model systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗