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At least 343 records · Page 19

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyclic Oxidation and Hot Corrosion of NiCrY-Coated Disk Superalloys

Powder metallurgy disk superalloys have been designed for higher engine operating temperatures through improvement of their strength and creep resistance. Yet, increasing disk application temperatures to 704 degrees Centigrade and higher could enhance oxidation and activate hot corrosion in harmful environments. Protective coatings could be necessary to mitigate such attack. Cylindrical coated specimens of disk superalloys LSHR and ME3 were subjected to thermal cycling to produce cyclic oxidation in air at a maximum temperature of 760 degrees Centigrade. The effects of substrate roughness and coating thickness on coating integrity after cyclic oxidation were considered. Selected coated samples that had cyclic oxidation were then subjected to accelerated hot corrosion tests. This cyclic oxidation did not impair the coating's resistance to subsequent hot corrosion pitting attack.

protective coating↗

Space in 21st Century Conflict: Calibrating Risks, Tailoring Strategies (Workshop Summary)

U.S. strategic thinking on outer space security has been slow to evolve since the 1990s and the DoD finds itself struggling to develop an adaptive and cohesive strategy for the domain. Russia and China, however, have been thinking about space in a holistic and integrated way for some time. Both countries recognize that U.S. conventional strength relies heavily on technologies and systems enabled by space-based assets. Thus, holding those assets at risk represents an opportunity to asymmetrically counter America’s ability to project power. China and Russia been developing a suite of anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities to accomplish this, to include direct-ascent weapons, space-based weapons, jammers, and cyber capabilities; both countries have also incorporated these systems into their respective tactical and strategic planning. This represents a serious threat to U.S. power projection and assurance of our regional allies and partners. Assuring the U.S.’s ability to operate in space is paramount for supporting regional security missions in both Europe and East Asia. Assuring DoD operations and capabilities in outer space, however, remains a challenge for the defense community. One solution offered by strategists is to enhance U.S. resiliency in space to turn the domain from offense dominant to defense dominant. This, they argue, can be achieved by improving space situational awareness (SSA), protecting space assets with active and passive countermeasures, disaggregating assets and leveraging new commercial space capabilities, and integrating allied space capabilities. However, many barriers remain to accomplishing these objectives. For example, some think that the classified nature of many U.S. space activities is an obstacle to deepening cooperation with commercial partners and allies. Others acknowledge the lack of a working model for incorporating cheaper, diverse, and scalable commercial space systems. Identifying where space fits into broader U.S. deterrence strategies is a subject of contention. While discussions over the past few years have focused on the practicability of deterring attacks on space assets via cross-domain threats, this line of thinking has yielded few useful insights. Consequently, defense practitioners have more recently shifted to thinking of space as part of an integrated deterrence concept, one that envisions building resiliency and defenses into our space architecture while simultaneously holding an adversary’s space-based assets at risk to enhance deterrence more broadly. However, both approaches illuminate a larger problem in the discussion of the relationship between space and deterrence: there is a lack of consensus on what it is we are trying to deter, how space fits into broader deterrence and strategic constructs, and the role of space in extended deterrence and assurance of allies. For example, is the United States’ priority to discourage attacks in space, to ensure regional power projection and alliance support capabilities, to deter broader global conflict or all of the above? Answering such questions will be an important step toward integrating space into a comprehensive defense strategy.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The NREL Sensor Laboratory Detection of Hydrogen Emissions

The development of a functional hydrogen detection system is a multifaceted process that integrates hardware, deployments strategies, and analytics which can be supported by the NREL Sensor Laboratory: 1. Support of the design, validation and optimization of sensing prototypes; 2. Guide optimized sensing element development, including control electronics; 3. Laboratory testing to validate/optimize metrological performance (measurement range, detection limit, etc.); 4. Provide test sites for field deployments representative of real-world scenarios with controlled hydrogen releases; 5. Develop sensor placement and operation guidance; 6. Provide guidance on electronics to accommodate facility integration; 7. Electrical safety designs to allow for operation within restricted zones; 8. Integration into facility monitoring and control systems; 9. Guide incorporation of cyber security elements to protect facilities from malicious attacks; 10. Modeling and application of advanced analytics to detect and quantify emissions; 11. Higher Order dispersion models to guide sensor placement for reliable detection; 12. Advanced analytics for improved metrological performances, and to inform inverse modeling; 13. Market support and commercialization (national and international markets); 14. Commercial deployments in H2@SCALE markets (e.g., HUBs and other large-scale hydrogen markets); and 15. Leverage off international collaborations/partnerships (e.g., NREL is on the advisory board for the European initiative "pre-Normative Research on Hydrogen Releases Assessment"-NHyRA).

08 HYDROGEN↗

A mathematical model of a single main rotor helicopter for piloted simulation

A mathematical model, suitable for piloted simulation of the flying qualities of helicopters, is a nonlinear, total force and moment model of a single main rotor helicopter. The model has ten degrees of freedom: six rigid body, three rotor flapping, and the rotor rotational degrees of freedom. The rotor model assumes rigid blades with rotor forces and moments radially integrated and summed about the azimuth. The fuselage aerodynamic model uses a detailed representation over a nominal angle of attack and sideslip range of + or - 15 deg., as well as a simplified curve fit at large angles of attack or sideslip. Stabilizing surface aerodynamics are modeled with a lift curve slope between stall limits and a general curve fit for large angles of attack. A generalized stability and control augmentation system is described. Additional computer subroutines provide options for a simplified engine/governor model, atmospheric turbulence, and a linearized six degree of freedom dynamic model for stability and control analysis.

Talbot, P. D.↗

Application of an Unstructured Grid Navier-Stokes Solver to a Generic Helicopter Boby: Comparison of Unstructured Grid Results with Structured Grid Results and Experimental Results

An unstructured-grid Navier-Stokes solver was used to predict the surface pressure distribution, the off-body flow field, the surface flow pattern, and integrated lift and drag coefficients on the ROBIN configuration (a generic helicopter) without a rotor at four angles of attack. The results are compared to those predicted by two structured- grid Navier-Stokes solvers and to experimental surface pressure distributions. The surface pressure distributions from the unstructured-grid Navier-Stokes solver are in good agreement with the results from the structured-grid Navier-Stokes solvers. Agreement with the experimental pressure coefficients is good over the forward portion of the body. However, agreement is poor on the lower portion of the mid-section of the body. Comparison of the predicted surface flow patterns showed similar regions of separated flow. Predicted lift and drag coefficients were in fair agreement with each other.

Mineck, Raymond E.↗

Experimental Investigation of a Large-Scale Low-Boom Inlet Concept

A large-scale low-boom inlet concept was tested in the NASA Glenn Research Center 8- x 6- foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The purpose of this test was to assess inlet performance, stability and operability at various Mach numbers and angles of attack. During this effort, two models were tested: a dual stream inlet designed to mimic potential aircraft flight hardware integrating a high-flow bypass stream; and a single stream inlet designed to study a configuration with a zero-degree external cowl angle and to permit surface visualization of the vortex generator flow on the internal centerbody surface. During the course of the test, the low-boom inlet concept was demonstrated to have high recovery, excellent buzz margin, and high operability. This paper will provide an overview of the setup, show a brief comparison of the dual stream and single stream inlet results, and examine the dual stream inlet characteristics.

Hirt, Stefanie M.↗

Pterodactyl: An Uncoupled Range Control Approach to Fully Numerical Predictor-Corrector Entry Guidance

Entry, descent, and landing (EDL) has been identified as a core area of investment in NASA's Strategic Technology Investment Plan (NASA STIP). STIP lists the space technologies needed to help achieve NASA's science, technology, and exploration goals across the agency. Within the EDL core area, deployable hypersonic decelerators, also known as deployable entry vehicles (DEVs), have been identified as an area of investment, due to its potential to revolutionize payload delivery methods to Earth and other planets. These vehicles, which can deploy their heat shields or alter their shape before entry, exploit an increased and more effective drag ratio by using less mass than traditional blunt body vehicles with rigid aeroshells. DEVs like Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) and Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) have demonstrated the capability of transporting the equivalent science payloads of blunt body rigid aeroshells, while using a significantly smaller diameter when stowed within a launch vehicle. While DEVs' increased energy dissipation for less mass is an attractive feature, their ability to contract and expand would require advancements in the current state-of-the-art guidance and control (G&C) architectures used by traditional rigid vehicles. Pterodactyl, a project funded by NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), aims to provide feasible integrated G&C solutions for DEVs, complete with optimized vehicle designs and packaging analyses. Structural and aerodynamic analyses for the explored control systems suggested a need for a bank angle guidance algorithm, a heritage guidance approach that has been used in many entry precision targeting vehicles, as well as an additional need for the development of a non-bank angle guidance. For this reason, Pterodactyl will consider four different G&C configurations during its design phase: i) a reaction control system for bank (sigma) control, ii) a mass movement system for angle of attack (alpha) sideslip (beta) control, iii) flaps for alpha - beta control, and iv) flaps for sigma control. To increase the applicability of each proposed integrated G&C architecture, an 11 km/s lunar return demonstration mission is selected to stress the developed technology capability. The Lifting Nano-ADEPT (LNA) vehicle is chosen as the DEV to demonstrate the integrated solutions. This paper will detail the trajectory design for a lunar return mission, using the validated bank control guidance algorithm Fully Numerical Predictor-Corrector Entry Guidance (FNPEG) and a newly developed guidance algorithm: FNPEG Uncoupled Range Control (URC). FNPEG-URC diverges from traditional bank angle guidances by producing alpha and beta commands to thereby decouple downrange and crossrange control. This presentation will discuss the development and overall performance of FNPEG and FNPEG-URC for each of the four G&C configurations. Successful G&C configurations are defined as those that can deliver payloads to the intended descent and landing site while abiding by trajectory constraints in the face of dispersions.

Johnson, Breanna↗

The Expanded Capabilities Of The Cementitious Barriers Partnership Software Toolbox Version 2.0 - 14331

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Project is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Tank Waste Management. The CBP program has developed a set of integrated tools (based on state-of-the-art models and leaching test methods) that help improve understanding and predictions of the long-term structural, hydraulic and chemical performance of cementitious barriers used in nuclear applications. The CBP Software Toolbox – “Version 1.0” was released early in FY2013 and was used to support DOE-EM performance assessments in evaluating various degradation mechanisms that included sulfate attack, carbonation and constituent leaching. The sulfate attack analysis predicted the extent and damage that sulfate ingress will have on concrete vaults over extended time (i.e., > 1000 years) and the carbonation analysis provided concrete degradation predictions from rebar corrosion. The new release “Version 2.0” includes upgraded carbonation software and a new software module to evaluate degradation due to chloride attack. Also included in the newer version are a dual regime module allowing evaluation of contaminant release in two regimes – both fractured and un-fractured. The integrated software package has also been upgraded with new plotting capabilities and many other features that increase the “user-friendliness” of the package. Experimental work has been generated to provide data to calibrate the models to improve the credibility of the analysis and reduce the uncertainty. Tools selected for and developed under this program have been used to evaluate and predict the behavior of cementitious barriers used in near-surface engineered waste disposal systems for periods of performance up to or longer than 100 years for operating facilities and longer than 1000 years for waste disposal. The CBP Software Toolbox is and will continue to produce tangible benefits to the working DOE Performance Assessment (PA) community.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Flexible and Generic Functional Mock-up Unit Based Threat Injection Framework for Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings: A Case Study in Modelica

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have been considered as an important asset to support the power grid reliability by utilizing the demand flexibility offered by GEBs. GEBs are enabled by advances in sensors and controls, and the communication between building equipment, whole buildings, and the grid. The integration of different building technologies and network-based communication system makes GEBs vulnerable to passive threats such as equipment failure and active threats such as cyber-attacks. Modeling and simulation is an effective way to evaluate the impact of threats on the system performance. This paper proposes a generic and flexible threat injection framework for commonly-used building energy simulators such as EnergyPlus and Modelica to support threat modeling and evaluation. This framework leverages functional mock-up unit (FMU) to develop a general modeling interface for threat injection and simulation. A numerical case study using Modelica as a building energy simulator is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the framework for supporting single/multiple-order threat modeling and simulation of a GEB. Four threats and their combinations are injected on a Modelica-based threat-free building energy and control system, including operating supply fan at its full speed, remotely cycling the chiller on and off, blocking the chiller from receiving the chilled water supply temperature setpoints, and hijacking the global zone air temperature setpoint. Simulation results show that the cyber-attack that leads to short-term signal blocking has small effects on the system operation due to the "self-healing" feature of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) interactive control system. The threat that takes control of resetting the global zone air temperature setpoints has the most adverse impact on the system energy use, peak power demand, thermal comfort and the provision of demand flexibility. The combination of four threats have aggregative effects on the system but the effects are less than the additive effects of the individual threat.

Fu, Yanyang↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering Principles: What’s in it for me?

CIE is an emerging method to integrate cybersecurity considerations into the conception, design, development, and operation of any physical system that has digital connectivity, monitoring, or control. CIE complements—but does not replace—the application of cybersecurity standards or practices currently in place within an organization. Rather, it expands cybersecurity decisions into the engineering space, not by asking engineers to become cyber experts, but by calling on engineers to apply engineering tools and make engineering decisions that improve cybersecurity outcomes. CIE examines the engineering consequences that a sophisticated cyber attacker could achieve, and drives engineering changes that may provide deterministic mitigations to limit or eliminate those consequences. Engineers and technicians that design critical energy infrastructure installations can integrate the 12 principles of CIE into each phase of the engineering lifecycle, from concept to retirement. These principles are aimed at system or design engineers, operators, and technicians, rather than software engineers or operational cybersecurity practitioners, because the engineers who design, build, operate, and maintain the physical infrastructure are best positioned to leverage a system’s engineering design to diminish the severity of cyber attacks or digital technology failures. This approach creates new opportunities for engineering teams—and not just cybersecurity teams—to secure the system using the physics and mechanics of engineering controls—not just digital monitoring and controls.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Top-mounted inlet performance for a V/STOL fighter/attack aircraft configuration

Inlet flow-field and compressor-face performance data were obtained for a 0.095-scale model of vertical/short take-off landing (V/STOL) fighter/attack aircraft configuration with twin top-mounted inlets. Tests were conducted at Mach numbers from 0.6 to 2.0 and angles of attack and sideslip up to 27 deg. and 12 deg., respectively. Reynolds number was held constant at 9.8 x 10 to the 6th power per meter. The effects of inlet location, wing leading-edge extension (LEX) planform area, canopy-dorsal integration, variable incidence canards, and wing leading- and trailing-edge flap deflections were determined. The results show that at Mach numbers up to 0.9, distortion is relatively low (20% or less) at all angles of attack and sideslip. However, at Mach numbers of 1.2 and above, operation may be restricted because of either high distortion or low pressure recovery (80% or less), or both. These difficulties may be overcome with alterations to the LEX/canopy/body juncture.

Smeltzer, Donald B.↗

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗

Inviscid/Boundary-Layer Aeroheating Approach for Integrated Vehicle Design

A typical entry vehicle design depends on the synthesis of many essential subsystems, including thermal protection system (TPS), structures, payload, avionics, and propulsion, among others. The ability to incorporate aerothermodynamic considerations and TPS design into the early design phase is crucial, as both are closely coupled to the vehicle's aerodynamics, shape and mass. In the preliminary design stage, reasonably accurate results with rapid turn-representative entry envelope was explored. Initial results suggest that for Mach numbers ranging from 9-20, a few inviscid solutions could reasonably sup- port surface heating predictions at Mach numbers variation of +/-2, altitudes variation of +/-10 to 20 kft, and angle-of-attack variation of +/- 5. Agreement with Navier-Stokes solutions was generally found to be within 10-15% for Mach number and altitude, and 20% for angle of attack. A smaller angle-of-attack increment than the 5 deg around times for parametric studies and quickly evolving configurations are necessary to steer design decisions. This investigation considers the use of an unstructured 3D inviscid code in conjunction with an integral boundary-layer method; the former providing the flow field solution and the latter the surface heating. Sensitivity studies for Mach number, angle of attack, and altitude, examine the feasibility of using this approach to populate a representative entry flight envelope based on a limited set of inviscid solutions. Each inviscid solution is used to generate surface heating over the nearby trajectory space. A subset of a considered in this study is recommended. Results of the angle-of-attack sensitivity studies show that smaller increments may be needed for better heating predictions. The approach is well suited for application to conceptual multidisciplinary design and analysis studies where transient aeroheating environments are critical for vehicle TPS and thermal design. Concurrent prediction of aeroheating environments, coupled with the use of unstructured methods, is considered enabling for TPS material selection and design in conceptual studies where vehicle mission, shape, and entry strategies evolve rapidly.

Lee, Esther↗

Multiphysics Time-Integration for Turbulent Combustion at the Exascale

Turbulent reacting flow systems are often modeled with coupled time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). Solving such equations can easily tax the world's largest supercomputers. One pragmatic strategy for attacking such problems is to split the PDEs into components that can more easily be solved in isolation. This generic operator-splitting strategy leads to a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that need to be solved as part of an "outer-loop" time-stepping approach. In many combustion applications, the ODEs to be solved can be very stiff, exhibiting timescales that span many orders of magnitude. The SUNDIALS library provides a plethora of robust time integration algorithms for solving these ODEs on exascale-capable computing hardware, yet for many complex applications (such multicomponent fuels or emissions predictions), the chemical models remain too complex to solve using reasonable resources. The Quasi-Steady State Approximation (QSSA) can be an effective tool for reducing the size and stiffness of the simulations. In this talk, I will discuss the use of the SUDIALS library of ODE solvers together with automatic code generation tools to solve complex turbulent reacting flow problems using QSSA models.

chemistry↗

Pterodactyl: 6-DOF Integration of Guidance and Control Algorithms in Genesis

The NASA-funded Pterodactyl project seeks to advance the current state-of-the-art for entry vehicles by developing novel guidance and control technologies for Deployable Entry Vehicles. This paper builds upon the Pterodactyl architecture that employed eight individually articulating flaps with two options for guidance, bank angle modulation with the Fully Numerical Predictor Corrector Entry Guidance (FNPEG) technique and angle of attack and sideslip modulation with FNPEG uncoupled range control. These, with a linear quadratic regulator controller, have previously been presented in separate 3-DOF trajectory simulations, one for translational motion and another for rotational dynamics. This work will show results for integrated 6-DOF simulations, leveraging recent advancements in trajectory simulation tools, namely the Julia-based Genesis package. Results show similar performance for both schemes when compared to the previously presented 3-DOF results once the controllers were adequately tuned. Angle of attack and sideslip modulation necessitated a controller designed at high dynamic pressure conditions, and bank angle modulation necessitated a controller designed at lower dynamic pressure conditions. Notably, angle of attack and sideslip modulation could not achieve the parachute deploy point target Mach number of 2, when only tuning the controller gains, thus future work will be needed to tune guidance specific parameters to achieve acceptable range targeting and guidance command tracking.

DEV↗

ARCADE (Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment)

SAND2025-11780O ARCADE (Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment) software performs cybersecurity experiments on Defensive Cyber Security Architectures (DCSA) for Distributed Control Systems (DCSs). The application is integrated into a cohesive environment that performs cyber risk analyses and reduces costs. ARCADE can investigate the entire cyber-attack surface of a DCS from the physics of control, down to the firmware of individual components with automated efficiency. ARCADE has five major functional components: the Data Broker system, the virtualization environment, the cyber-attack simulator, the cyber-physical analysis system, and the physics simulator. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Valme, Romuald↗