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At least 343 records · Page 19

Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model

Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California"

This package contains the data, simulation setups, notebooks and figures used in “Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California” (Xu et al., 2025). In this study, we selected Elkhorn Slough, a tidal estuary, in California, to investigate the impact of wetland restoration and sea level rise on coastal hydrology using the process-based coastal hydrologic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), informed by site-specific data. We designed a novel modeling workflow for incorporating wetland restoration features into land cover and soil properties for the model parameterization. The validation results demonstrate a strong agreement between modeled and observed data. We studied the characteristics of coastal watershed hydrology, then focused on the surface water dynamics at two wetland sites within Elkhorn Slough, a reference site and a restored site. Our simulation results indicate that the restored site successfully maintains surface elevation, resulting in reduced surface inundation. We also examined the impact of wetland restoration under expected sea level rise over the next few decades. The low-lying Yampah Marsh, the reference site, is likely to be inundated due to future sea level rise when highest tides arrive; while a higher percentage of Hester Marsh, the restored site, would retain marsh vegetation in coming decades, regardless of tidal conditions. Our study provides important information for examining the outcome of restoration practices that include surface elevation in tidal wetlands under climate changes.Several files can be found from this data package.1. README.md: This file describes the title, journal, co-authors, abstract, repository structure and model version.2. Simulation_Setups.zip: The file contains the model configuration files (XML format) for ATS. 3. Notebooks.zip: The file contains the Jupyter notebooks for generating the pre- and post-restoration meshes and the meshes of future scenarios. 4. Figures.zip: The file contains the figures used in the manuscript.5. Data.zip: The file contains the data used to drive the model simulations, including watershed and wetlands boundaries, mesh files and references to additional datasets (e.g., meteorological forcing, tidal dataset, DEMs, land cover, soil properties). Also, it contains water level observations at the restored wetland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Photosynthesis Simulation Performance in ESMs with Machine Learning-Assisted Solvers

When simulating vegetation dynamics, photosynthesis accounts for a large fraction of the computational cost in most Earth System Models (ESMs). This is largely since photosynthesis is represented as a system of nonlinear equations, and the solution requires the use of an initial guess followed by many iterations of the numerical solver to obtain a solution. We use machine learning (ML) to replicate the response surface of the model’s numerical solver to improve the choice of initial guess, therefore requiring fewer iterations to obtain a final solution. We implemented this test on the leaf-level calculations as well as at the canopy scale, and for both we observed fewer iterations of the photosynthesis solver when a ML-based initial guess was implemented. The model tested here is the Energy Exascale Earth System Model - Land Model (ELM). The ML-based algorithms used here are trained on simulations from the model itself and used only to improve the initial guess for the solver; therefore, the model maintains its own set of physics to obtain the final solution. This work shows novel ways to utilize ML-based methods to improve the performance of numerical solvers in ESMs.

Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Determining Spatially Varying Profit-Maximizing Management Practices for Miscanthus and Switchgrass Production in the Rainfed United States

The compiled datasets include county-level variables used for simulating miscanthus and switchgrass production in 2287 counties across the rainfed US including 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season degree days (GDD), 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season cumulative precipitation, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, regional dummies (only for miscanthus), the regional-level random effect of the yield response function, N price, land cash rent, the first year fixed cost (only for switchgrass), and separate datasets for simulating an alternative model assuming a constant N rate. The GAMS codes are used to run the simulation to obtain the main results including the age-varying profit-maximizing N rate, biomass yields, and annual profits for miscanthus and switchgrass production across counties in the rainfed US. The STATA codes are used to merge and analyze simulation results and create summary statistics tables and key figures.

Age↗

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the tropics and central United States: intercomparison of general circulation models

Diurnal precipitation is a fundamental mode of variability that climate models have difficulty in accurately simulating. Here, in this work, the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) in participating climate models from the Global Energy and Water Exchanges' DCP project is evaluated over the tropics and central United States. Common model biases such as excessive precipitation over the tropics, too frequent light-to-moderate rain, and the failure to capture propagating convection in the central United States still exist. Over the central United States, the issues of too weak rainfall intensity in climate runs is well improved in their hindcast runs with initial conditions from numerical weather prediction analyses. But the improvement is minimal over the central Amazon. Incorporating the role of the large-scale environment in convective triggering processes helps resolve the phase-locking issue in many models where precipitation often incorrectly peaks near noon due to maximum insolation over land. Allowing air parcels to be lifted above the boundary layer improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation which is often associated with the propagation of mesoscale systems. Including convective memory in cumulus parameterizations acts to suppress light-to-moderate rain and promote intense rainfall; however, it also weakens the diurnal variability. Simply increasing model resolution (with cumulus parameterizations still used) cannot fully resolve the biases of low-resolution climate models in DCP. The hierarchy modeling framework from this study is useful for identifying the missing physics in models and testing new development of model convective processes over different convective regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in a Coupled Modeling System and Evaluation of "Gray Zone" Simulations of a Wind-Wave Event Off the US California Coast Using Observations

A three-dimensional (3D) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization was added to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model and the first coupled atmosphere/wave "gray zone" simulations were carried out using the 3D PBL parameterization. A case study of a significant wind-wave event from 4-8 November 2020 off the US west coast was examined, with a focus on the impacts of the event within an approximate 280x280 km central California coastal region covering the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Morro Bay wind energy lease area. Simulations with both one-dimensional (1D; Yonsei University) and 3D PBL parameterizations were examined in this nest with ..delta..x=400 m. Two-way coupling was active, with near-surface winds feeding back to the wave model and bulk wave statistics feeding back to the atmospheric model. Both simulations compared favorably with buoy observations in capturing the timing and magnitude of wind speed, temperature, dewpoint, and significant wave height, as the front associated with the maritime weather system moved southward across coastal California. However, wind speed errors over land were larger. Time series of the vertical profile of winds below z=250 m from the simulations compared favorably with observations from the US Dept. of Energy Morro Bay Doppler lidar buoy. Differences between the coupled 1D and 3D PBL simulations were minor. The most notable difference was that the simulation using the 3D PBL parameterization had approximately 10 % weaker winds at the peak of the event causing 10 % lower significant wave heights. This difference was shown to be mostly due to differences in the vertical mixing treatment between the parameterizations, in particular the nonlocal downward mixing of higher momentum air in the 1D Yonsei University parameterization in convective conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that the 3D PBL parameterization can be used in a coupled atmosphere/wave modeling framework with similar behaviors as traditional PBL parameterizations that do not provide horizontal turbulent variances and fluxes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial heterogeneity effects on land surface modeling of water and energy partitioning

Abstract. Understanding the influence of land surface heterogeneity on surface water and energy fluxes is crucial for modeling earth system variability and change. This study investigates the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on land surface modeling, including atmospheric forcing (ATM), soil properties (SOIL), land use and land cover (LULC), and topography (TOPO). Our analysis focused on their impacts on the partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff (R), partitioning of net radiation into sensible heat and latent heat, and corresponding water and energy fluxes. An initial set of 16 experiments were performed over the continental US (CONUS) using the E3SM land model (ELMv1) with different combinations of heterogeneous and homogeneous datasets. The Sobol' total and first-order sensitivity indices were utilized to quantify the relative importance of the four heterogeneity sources. Sobol' total sensitivity index measures the total heterogeneity effects induced by a given heterogeneity source, consisting of the contribution from its own heterogeneity (i.e., the first-order index) and its interactions with other heterogeneity sources. ATM and LULC are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning, mainly contributed by their own heterogeneity and slightly contributed by their interactions with other heterogeneity sources. Their heterogeneity effects are complementary, both spatially and temporally. The overall impacts of SOIL and TOPO are negligible, except TOPO dominates the spatial variability of R/P across the transitional climate zone between the arid western and humid eastern CONUS. Accounting for more heterogeneity sources improves the simulated spatial variability of water and energy fluxes when compared with ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. An additional set of 13 experiments identified the most critical components within each heterogeneity source, which are precipitation, temperature, and longwave radiation for ATM, soil texture, and soil color for SOIL and maximum fractional saturated area parameter for TOPO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping and Characterizing the Visual Impacts of the Existing US Wind Turbine Fleet

Visual impacts of wind turbines have been a persistent concern for wind energy development in the United States (US) for decades and remain a major source of project delays and cancellations. Assessments of visual impacts are frequently performed at a local scale for individual projects, but a comprehensive understanding of broader geographic patterns in visual impacts across the US is lacking. This paper presents a visual impact assessment of the existing land-based wind turbine fleet of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment combines geographic information systems and 3D simulation methods to account for key factors driving the visual magnitude of impacts from the installed turbines. The results indicate that, despite the deployment of approximately 70,000 turbines and over 144 gigawatts of land-based wind in the CONUS, the visual impacts are very small when measured as a proportion of land area, population, and sensitive visual resources. Nonetheless, visual impacts are not evenly distributed: people experience a concentrated share in a small number of natural settings, primarily including plains, prairies, and deserts. Finally, we find that although increased density of wind development consistently leads to visual impacts across a greater proportion of land, it does not always lead to impacts to a greater share of the population. These findings suggest that visual impacts from wind energy are generally well-mitigated across the CONUS to date but also highlight the need for a deeper understanding of landscape sensitivity and individual perceptions of wind turbines in the most heavily impacted natural settings.

3D simulation↗

Sputter deposition of high electrical resistivity Au-Ta alloy coatings on rotating substrates

Sputter deposition of gold-tantalum alloy coatings is a key process for manufacturing hohlraums for magnetically-assisted inertial confinement fusion implosions. In this report we describe direct current magnetron sputter deposition of ~ 10 - μ~ 10 - μm-thick films of Au-80 at.% Ta onto rotating sphero-cylindrical hohlraum and planar Si witness substrates. Emphasis is given to how film microstructure and properties are affected by main deposition parameters, including argon working gas pressure, substrate bias, and the source composition (a single alloyed target compared to co-sputtering from two elemental targets). Experimental findings are correlated with distributions of landing energies and incident angles of depositing species calculated by Monte Carlo simulations of ballistic collisions and gas phase atomic transport. Deposition conditions characterized by low energetics of depositing species favor the formation of a β-Ta-like phase. Implications of these results to hohlraum fabrication are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting distribution of malaria vector larval habitats in Ethiopia by integrating distributed hydrologic modeling with remotely sensed data

Abstract Larval source management has gained renewed interest as a malaria control strategy in Africa but the widespread and transient nature of larval breeding sites poses a challenge to its implementation. To address this problem, we propose combining an integrated high resolution (50 m) distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed data to simulate potential malaria vector aquatic habitats. The novelty of our approach lies in its consideration of irrigation practices and its ability to resolve complex ponding processes that contribute to potential larval habitats. The simulation was performed for the year of 2018 using ParFlow-Common Land Model (CLM) in a sugarcane plantation in the Oromia region, Ethiopia to examine the effects of rainfall and irrigation. The model was calibrated using field observations of larval habitats to successfully predict ponding at all surveyed locations from the validation dataset. Results show that without irrigation, at least half of the area inside the farms had a 40% probability of potential larval habitat occurrence. With irrigation, the probability increased to 56%. Irrigation dampened the seasonality of the potential larval habitats such that the peak larval habitat occurrence window during the rainy season was extended into the dry season. Furthermore, the stability of the habitats was prolonged, with a significant shift from semi-permanent to permanent habitats. Our study provides a hydrological perspective on the impact of environmental modification on malaria vector ecology, which can potentially inform malaria control strategies through better water management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sputter-deposited low-stress boron carbide films

Significant challenges have been faced in the manufacturing of low-stress B 4 C films. Here, we demonstrate a set of process parameters for direct-current magnetron sputter deposition of smooth, high-purity, amorphous B 4 C films with near-zero total residual stress and with thicknesses up to 10 μm. Films are characterized by a combination of high-energy ion scattering, x-ray diffraction, electron microscopy, and stress measurements based on substrate curvature. In order to facilitate the process transfer to other sputtering geometries, the favorable deposition conditions are correlated with distributions of landing energies and incident angles of depositing species estimated by Monte Carlo simulations of ballistic collisions and gas phase atomic transport. Based on such simulations, a decrease in compressive stress with increasing Ar working gas pressure is attributed to the corresponding broadening of the angular distribution of depositing species and associated atomic shadowing effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Causal Inference Model Based on Random Forests to Identify the Effect of Soil Moisture on Precipitation

Soil moisture influences precipitation mainly through its impact on land–atmosphere interactions. Understanding and correctly modeling soil moisture–precipitation (SM–P) coupling is crucial for improving weather forecasting and subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions, especially when predicting the persistence and magnitude of drought. However, the sign and spatial structure of SM–P feedback are still being debated in the climate research community, mainly due to the difficulty in establishing causal relationships and the high degree of nonlinearity in land–atmosphere processes. To this end, we developed a causal inference model based on the Granger causality analysis and a nonlinear machine learning model. This model includes three steps: nonlinear anomaly decomposition, nonlinear Granger causality analysis, and evaluation of the quality of SM–P feedback, which eliminates the nonlinear response of interannual and seasonal variability and the memory effects of climatic factors and isolates the causal relationship of local SM–P feedback. We applied this model by using National Climate Assessment–Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) datasets over the United States. Here, the results highlight the importance of nonlinear atmosphere responses in land–atmosphere interactions. In addition, the strong feedback over the southwestern United States and the Great Plains both highlight the impacts of topographic factors rather than only the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, the SM–P index defined by our framework is used to benchmark Earth system models (ESMs), which provides a new metric for efficiently identifying potential model biases in modeling local land–atmosphere interactions and may help the development of ESMs in improving simulations of water cycle variability and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. We generated this data package in support of the manuscript and research reproducibility. The background of this study is that the streambed itself has not been explicitly represented in watershed models, although the streambed characteristics are significantly different from those of its surrounding soil. We aim to answer the following questions: 1) How do streambed properties including hydraulic conductivity, thickness and resolution impact the groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes across the streambed? 2) Is an explicit representation of streambed important in watershed modeling?; 3) Is a high-resolution streambed needed for watershed simulations?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alquimia v1.0: a generic interface to biogeochemical codes – a tool for interoperable development, prototyping and benchmarking for multiphysics simulators

Alquimia v1.0 is a generic interface to geochemical solvers that facilitates development of multiphysics simulators by enabling code coupling, prototyping and benchmarking. The interface enforces the function arguments and their types for setting up, solving, serving up output data and carrying out other common auxiliary tasks while providing a set of structures for data transfer between the multiphysics code driving the simulation and the geochemical solver. Alquimia relies on a single-cell approach that permits operator splitting coupling and parallel computation. We describe the implementation in Alquimia of two widely used open-source codes that perform geochemical calculations: PFLOTRAN and CrunchFlow. We then exemplify its use for the implementation and simulation of reactive transport in porous media by two open-source flow and transport simulators: Amanzi and ParFlow. We also demonstrate its use for the simulation of coupled processes in novel multiphysics applications including the effect of multiphase flow on reaction rates at the pore scale with OpenFOAM, the role of complex biogeochemical processes in land surface models such as the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and the impact of surface–subsurface hydrological interactions on hydrogeochemical export from watersheds with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS). These applications make it apparent that the availability of a well-defined yet flexible interface has the potential to improve the software development workflow, freeing up resources to focus on advances in process models and mechanistic understanding of coupled problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗