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At least 343 records · Page 19

Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = −0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Soil MOisture↗

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of 2 the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a type of weather pattern known to be important for moving water vapor from the warm, moist tropics to the cool, dry polar regions; when they reach midlatitudes in the winter time, they are commonly associated with heavy precipitation. Recent studies that assess the impacts of global climate change on ARs tend to agree that there will be more ARs in a warmer climate, and that ARs will tend to be more extreme. However, it has been increasingly recognized by the AR research community that these results may depend on the method used to identify ARs and the choice of climate model. This study reports results from a controlled experiment, involving an international research community, that aims to show how different AR identification methods and climate models might impact our scientific understanding of ARs in the future. This experiment shows that there will likely be more ARs in the future, and that ARs will generally have a larger spatial footprint. This experiment also shows that uncertainty in these results are large, with the uncertainty from AR identification methods outweighing that of climate models. Future efforts to better understand the physics of ARs may help us reduce this uncertainty.

T A OBrien↗

NASA Common Research Model Test Envelope Extension With Active Sting Damping at NTF

The NASA Common Research Model (CRM) high Reynolds number transonic wind tunnel testing program was established to generate an experimental database for applied Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) validation studies. During transonic wind tunnel tests, the CRM encounters large sting vibrations when the angle of attack approaches the second pitching moment break, which can sometimes become divergent. CRM transonic test data analysis suggests that sting divergent oscillations are related to negative net sting damping episodes associated with flow separation instability. The National Transonic Facility (NTF) has been addressing remedies to extend polar testing up to and beyond the second pitching moment break point of the test articles using an active piezoceramic damper system for both ambient and cryogenic temperatures. This paper reviews CRM test results to gain understanding of sting dynamics with a simple model describing the mechanics of a sting-model system and presents the performance of the damper under cryogenic conditions.

Rivers, Melissa B.↗

Comparison of SAR and CYNSS surface water extent metrics over the Yucatan Lake wetland site

Wetlands have a major role in the carbon cycle, outgassing large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane through processes that are directly and strongly influenced by the duration and timing of inundation. Therefore, understanding the seasonal pattern of inundation can be a component for regional to global scale carbon models. Measurement of inundation extent also establishes a benchmark for the current status of wetland areas, useful in assessing the future impacts of climate change. The incorporation of frequent measurements of inundation extent into large-scale hydrological models would permit the evaluation of more detailed seasonal and longer-term floodplain dynamics and their associated management implications.The Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) constellation of satellites launched in 2016, and carries receivers capable of receiving data from L-band GNSS reflections. Delay Doppler maps (DDM) are generated on board and telemetered to the ground, along with a small number of raw data takes that can be used for special processing on the ground for evaluation purposes. It has been previously shown that these data can be sensitive to inundation.The NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, currently planned for launch in January 2023, has both an L-band and S-band SAR for earth imaging. The L-band SAR, which will image the Earth's land mass twice every 12 days, has a requirement for measuring wetland inundation extent at the 1 ha scale. One of the sites that will be used to validate this requirement is Yucatan Lake, Louisiana. This oxbow lake and surrounding area located adjacent to the Mississippi river experiences periodic and extensive flooding in the surrounding forest areas.In 2019, NASA's UAVSAR fully polarimetric airborne L-band SAR conducted a flight campaign to image a dozen sites in the SE USA at approximately 12-day intervals and both in the morning and evening, to simulate the type of data NISAR will obtain. One site imaged during this campaign was the Yucatan Lake area, spanning water stages from low to high flood conditions.It has been demonstrated previously that GNSS reflectometry such as that measured by CYGNSS may be used to characterize surface inundation. It has also been known for decades that L-band SAR may be used to characterize not only the presence of open water, but also the presence of subcanopy inundation in forested areas. In this paper we will present results comparing data from these two types of instruments.

Lavalle, Marco↗

Carbonate-sulfate volcanism on Venus?

Venusian canali, outflow channels, and associated volcanic deposits resemble fluvial landforms more than they resmeble volcanic features on Earth and Mars. Some canali have meandering habits and features indicative of channel migration that are very similar to meandering river channels and flood plains on Earth, venusian outflow channels closely resemble water-carved outflow channels on Mars and the Channeled Scabland in Washington, collapsed terrains at the sources of some venusian channels resemble chaotic terrains at the sources of martian outflow channels, venusian lava deltas are similar to bird's-foot deltas such as the Mississippi delta, and venusian valley networks indicate sapping. We have developed an alternative possibility that the lava had a water-like rheology and a melting point slightly greater than Venus' surface temperature, thus accounting for the unusual behavior of the lava. Unlike silicate lavas, some carbonatites (including carbonate-sulfate-rich liquids) have these properties; thus they can flow great distances while retaining a high fluidity, significant mechanical erosiveness, and substantial capacity to transport and deposit sediment. Venusian geochemistry and petrology are consistent with extensive eruptions of carbonatite lavas, which could have crustal and/or mantle origins. Venus' atmosphere (especially CO2, HCl, and HF abundances) and rocks may be in local chemical equilibrium, which suggests that the upper crust contains large amounts of calcite, anhydrite, and other salts. Chemical analyses indicate, according to some models, that Venusian rocks may contain 4-19% calcite and anhydrite. Mixtures of crustal salts could melt at temperatures a few tens to a few hundred Kelvins higher than Venus' surface temperature; hence, melting may be induced by modest endogenetic or impact heating. Salts may have many of the same geologic roles on Venus as water and ice have on Mars. A molten salt (carbonatite) 'aquifer' may exist beneath a few hundred meters to several kilometers of solidified salt-rich 'permafrost.' Many geologic features can be explained by carbonatite magmatism: (1) impact melting of crustal salts can explain crater outflows, (2) small, sustained eruptions from molten salt aquifers can explain sapping valleys, (3) large, sustained eruptions may explain canali and their flood plans, and (4) catastrophic outbursts amy have formed outflow channels and chaotic terrain. Landforms created by carbonate-rich lavas would be thermally stable on Venus' surface, though some minerals may weather to other solid substances.

Kargel, Jeffrey S.↗

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux from Space: With Application to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by all Mid-Atlantic Bight estuaries (1.2 Tg C/year), the DOC export (CB + DB) of 0.3 Tg C/year estimated here corresponds to 25% of the TOCexp. Spatial and temporal covariations of velocity and DOC concentration provide contributions to the flux, with larger spatial influence. Differences in the discharge of fresh water into the bays (74 billion m(exp3)/year for CB and 21 billion m9exp3)/year for DB) and their geomorphologies are major drivers of the differences in DOC fluxes for these two systems. Terrestrial DOC inputs are similar to the export of DOC at the bay mouths at annual and longer time scales but diverge significantly at shorter time scales (days to months). Future efforts will expand to the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine, and its major rivers and estuaries, in combination with coupled terrestrial-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical models that include effects of climate change, such as warming and CO2 increase.

Signorini, Sergio↗

Estimating Net Primary Productivity Using Satellite and Ancillary Data

The net primary productivity (C) or the annual rate of carbon accumulation per unit ground area by terrestrial plant communities is the difference of gross photosynthesis (A(sub g)) and respiration (R) per unit ground area. Available field observations show that R is a large and variable fraction of A(sub g), although it is generally recognized that there are considerable difficulties in determining these fluxes, and thus pose challenge in assessing the accuracy. Further uncertainties arise in extrapolating field measurements (which are acquired over a hectare or so area) to regional scale. Here, an approach is presented for determining these fluxes using satellite and ancillary data to be representative of regional scale and allow assessment of interannual variation. A, has been expressed as the product of radiation use efficiency for gross photosynthesis by an unstressed canopy and intercepted photosynthetically active radiation, which is then adjusted for stresses due to soil water shortage and temperature away from optimum. R has been calculated as the sum of growth and maintenance components (respectively, R(sub g) and R(sub m)).The R(sub m) has been determined from nitrogen content of plant tissue per unit ground area, while R(sub g) has been obtained as a fraction of the difference of A(sub g) and R(sub m). Results for five consecutive years (1986-1990) are presented for the Amazon-Tocontins, Mississippi, and Ob River basins.

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.↗

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the active phase, the SCS was a strong sink (E-P much less than 0) of atmospheric moisture, with the primary source of moisture coming from regions further west over Indo-China and the eastern Indian Ocean. Before onset and during the break, the SCS was a moisture source (E-P greater than ) to the overlying atmosphere. In particular, the SCS provided the bulk of moisture to the torrential rain over the YRV in mid-June 1998.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

TRIDENT Drill Validation at Mars and Lunar Analog Field Sites

Drilling on Earth is typically a human-intensive activity. Drilling on other planets is further complicated by the lack of prior local field surveys of their target area, hence blindly drilling into uncertain target rocks. Field conditions on the Moon or Mars are also different than for shallow drilling on Earth: lower temperatures and pressures, less power available, low masses (hence less weight-on-bit). Given the cost of transport from Earth, no drilling muds or working fluids are likely to be available to carry away cuttings. And impact-gardened regolith and dust vary mechanically and texturally from most terrestrial soils. The Regolith and Ice Drill for Exploration of New Terrains (TRIDENT) is a rotary-percussive 1m-class drill from Honeybee Robotics. It is low-power (rotary and percussive actuators are 200 W each) and lightweight (<20 kg) with the maximum weight on bit limited to 200 N. TRIDENT has been manifested for the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) and PRIME-1 lunar south pole missions in 2024, has previously been field tested at a hot, dry analog site in the Atacama Desert, and in lunar conditions in thermal vacuum chamber tests. TRIDENT was also part of the 2019 Icebreaker Mars Discovery proposal, as well as in the Mars Life Explorer concept. During ARADS tests, drill control and fault recovery automation software enabled hands-off operations of a rover-mounted TRIDENT drill. TRIDENT Drill Analog Site Validation: Past TRIDENT tests in thermal vacuum (TVAC) chambers targeted containers of manufactured lunar simulants with added volatiles. 2022 TRIDENT ambient testing at NASA Ames drilled into cemented lunar simulant materials. Low cuttings-permeability led to cuttings buildup, and drill choking and binding was observed. The Atacama analog site in ARADS had desiccated unconsolidated sediments that did not challenge the TRIDENT design. However, lunar polar regolith is expected to be diverse and heterogeneous with varying clast sizes, with abundant impactites and perhaps subsurface ice deposits. Neither the simulants nor Atacama testing had completely covered the TRIDENT-targeted field characteristics, motivating further analog tests prior to the planned lunar missions. To gain more insight into the behavior of the TRIDENT hardware in diverse impactites and subsurface ice, and to verify the software automation in that environment, in August 2023 TRIDENT was brought to Haughton Crater, a field analog site in the Canadian Arctic. In September 2023 the same drill was brought to the Bishop Tuff in southern California to verify whether drilling binding behaviors previously seen in lunar simulant testing would be observed in naturally occurring fine-grained massive layers. The ~22 Ma Haughton Crater impact structure is located at 75 ̊22’ N, 89 ̊41’ W, on northwestern Devon Island, Nunavut, Canada. Numerous deposits of pale-grey crater-fill polymictic impact-melt breccia are found within the crater with a typical thickness reaching ~125 m or greater and covering ~60 km -2 . An approximately 600m-thick permafrost layer is also present with ice typically found within 0.5-0.6m of the surface. The volcanic tableland north of Bishop, CA exposes densely welded tuff laid down during the eruption that created the Long Valley Caldera at approximately 0.76 Ma. Extensional faults and the Owens River gorge expose cross-sections across the plateau. The area is viewed as an analog site for Mars features believed to be of pyroclastic origin. Results: Haughton Crater.Drilling tests were conducted 8-13 August 2023 at a previously undisturbed area separated 5-10 m from past years’ Drill Hill test sites (75.4208, -089.7613). In six days, TRIDENT drilled 8 holes to nearly 1 m depth each, totaling 7.80 m. The active layer/ice boundary was at ~67 cm depth, with a total of approximately 2.4 m drilled into ice or ice-cemented impact breccia. During drilling, five drill fault states were observed and successfully recovered. Holes 23-1, 4 and 7 were drilled under manual control, using Honeybee’s Thorax user interface. Holes 23-5, 6, and 8 were drilled with the Ames IBexec automated drilling control software. TRIDENT was observed to have little difficulty in the thawed uncemented impact breccia above the active layer boundary, but required percussion to make slower headway in the ice-cemented breccia. In Hole 23-7 (Fig.1), drilling slowed down in a massive unit just above the active-layer boundary (perhaps a large rock extending into the ice-cementation?), with only 7cm progress made in 27 minutes of high auger torque and constant percussion, leading to a choking fault and then a binding fault. A similar pattern had been observed in TRIDENT Rio Tinto test data from 2017 [6] as well as in the 2022laboratory tests.Bishop Tuff.A team from NASA Ames and the US Geological Survey deployed the same TRIDENT drill to Bishop Sites 1B and 1C (37.4203, -118.4289; 37.4265, -118.4215) on 13-16 September 2023, on the Bishop Tuff plateau. A third drill site was used 17-18 September 2023(37.4598, -118.3667) in an abandoned pumice mine. Four holes (totaling 2.5m depth) were drilled into the fine-grained, meters-thick tuff units at Sites 1B and 1C, and a further two boreholes (totaling 1.98m depth) were made at the pumice site. Drill behavior in the tuff below 10 cm depth was similar to that seen at 65-74 cm depth in Haughton Hole 23-7 (Fig. 1) and that seen in the 2022 lab simulant drilling. Drill safety torque limits were exceeded multiple times resulting in drill stops downhole. These freezes then required external added torques (with a pipe wrench) to resume rotation, to unstick the drill for withdrawal. To prevent this choking and binding behavior we found that more-frequent cuttings removal was necessary, e.g., reducing the “drill bite” size from the nominal 10 cm to 2 cm per bite --bringing the auger up to the surface more frequently, as seen in Bishop Site 1C Hole 2 (Fig.2). This permitted slow progress without drill binding and without external interventions. Conversely, TRIDENT drilling in the more porous pumice target material showed no cuttings buildup issue, and single bites as large as 40 cm were demonstrated. Discussion: We observed that TRIDENT easily penetrated unconsolidated heterogeneous soils (both above the active layer boundary at Haughton and previously in the Atacama). Cemented or consolidated targets that were cuttings-permeable (icy impact breccia, pumice) required more energy applied and percussion. However, in non-cuttings-permeable targets (welded microporous tuff, cemented simulants, boulder) TRIDENT was observed to be prone to excessive cuttings accumulation leading to choking/binding faults and stalling. The wedge cutting bit, used by TRIDENT in field tests and in its flight versions, pulverizes the target rock and creates fine cuttings that ideally are transported up the auger spirals for removal. In porous, fractured or vesicular target materials (such as at the Bishop pumice site) a significant portion of the cuttings are pushed aside, but for non-fractured, microporous targets the cuttings remain in the borehole and accumulate. Rock powder is relatively incompressible as a working fluid at only 100-200N downward force (TRIDENT limits) and hence eventual drilling progress slows or stops. Our recommended strategy for improving TRIDENT cuttings removal in massive target units with low cuttings-permeability is to reduce TRIDENT bite sizes when encountering these units, from 10cm to as little as 1-2cm, to effectively bail the accumulating cuttings. This approach was demonstrated to reduce choking and allowed slow progress to continue in cuttings-impermeable microporous target units (viz. the Bishop tuff in our September 2023 tests or cemented simulants in 2022 ambient tests).

robotic drilling↗

Large-Scale Impact Cratering and Early Earth Evolution

The surface of the Moon attests to the importance of large-scale impact in its early crustal evolution. Previous models of the effects of a massive bombardment on terrestrial crustal evolution have relied on analogies with the Moon, with allowances for the presence of water and a thinner lithosphere. It is now apparent that strict lunar-terrestrial analogies are incorrect because of the "differential scaling" of crater dimensions and melt volumes with event size and planetary gravity. Impact melt volumes and "ancient cavity dimensions for specific impacts were modeled according to previous procedures. In the terrestrial case, the melt volume (V(sub m)) exceeds that of the transient cavity (V(sub tc)) at diameters > or = 400 km. This condition is reached on the Moon only with transient cavity diameters > or = 3000 km, equivalent to whole Moon melting. The melt volumes in these large impact events are minimum estimates, since, at these sizes, the higher temperature of the target rocks at depth will increase melt production. Using the modification-scaling relation of Croft, a transient cavity diameter of about 400 km in the terrestrial environment corresponds to an expected final impact "basin" diameter of about 900 km. Such a "basin" would be comparable in dimensions to the lunar basin Orientale. This 900-km "basin" on the early Earth, however, would not have had the appearance of Orientale. It would have been essentially a melt pool, and, morphologically, would have had more in common with the palimpsests structures on Callisto and Ganymede. With the terrestrial equivalents to the large multiring basins of the Moon being manifested as muted palimpsest-like structures filled with impact melt, it is unlikely they played a role in establishing the freeboard on the early Earth. The composition of the massive impact melt sheets (> 10 (exp 7) cu km) produced in "basin-forming" events on the early Earth would have most likely ranged from basaltic to more mafic for the largest impacts, where the melt volume would have reached well into the mantle. Any contribution from adiabatic melting or shock heating of the asthenosphere would have had similar mafic compositions. The depth of the melt sheets is unknown but would have been in the multilkilometer range. Bodies of basaltic melt > or = 300 m thick differentiate in the terrestrial environment, with the degree of differentiation being a function of the thickness of the body. We therefore expect that these thick, closed-system melt pools would have differentiated into an ultramafic-mafic base and felsic top. If only 10% of the impact melt produced in a single event creating a 400-km diameter transient cavity evolved into felsic differentiates, they would be comparable in volume to the Columbia River basalts. It has been estimated that at least 200 impact events of this size or larger occurred on the early Earth during a period of heavy bombardment. We speculate that these massive differentiated melt sheets may have had a role in the formation of the initial felsic component of the Earth's crust. Additional information is contained in the original.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

Use of Very High-Resolution Optical Data for Landslide Mapping and Susceptibility Analysis Along the Karnali Highway, Nepal

The Karnali highway is a vital transport link and the only primary roadway that connects the remote Karnali region to the lowlands in Mid-Western Nepal. Every year there are reports of landslides blocking the road, making this area largely inaccessible. However, little effort has focused on systematically identifying landslides and landslide-prone areas along this highway. In this study, landslides were mapped with an object-based approach from very high-resolution optical satellite imagery obtained by the DigitalGlobe constellation in 2012 and PlanetScope in 2018. Landslides ranging from 10 to 30,496 sq.m were detected within a 3 km buffer along the highway. Most of the landslides were located at lower elevations (between 500–1500 m) and on steep south-facing slopes. Landslides tended to cluster closer to the highway, near drainage channels and away from faults. Landslides were also most prevalent within the Kuncha Formation geologic class, and the forested and agricultural land cover classes. A susceptibility map was then created using a logistic regression methodology to highlight patterns in landslide activity. The landslide susceptibility map showed a good prediction rate with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90. A total of 33% of the study arealies in high/very high susceptibility zones. The map highlighted the lower elevated areas between Bangesimal and Manma towns with the Kuncha Formation geologic class as being the most hazardous. The banks of the Karnali River, its tributaries and areas near the highway were also highly susceptible to landslides. The results highlight the potential of very high-resolution optical imagery for documenting detailed spatial information on landslide occurrence, which enables susceptibility assessment in remote and data scarce regions such as the Karnali highway.

Pukar Amatya↗

Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Energy Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

This paper compares the annual and monthly components of the simulated energy budget from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) with reference products over the domains of the 12 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the continental United States (CONUS). The simulations are calculated from both operational and research versions of NLDAS-2. The reference radiation components are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Surface Radiation Budget product. The reference sensible and latent heat fluxes are obtained from a multitree ensemble method applied to gridded FLUXNET data from the Max Planck Institute, Germany. As these references are obtained from different data sources, they cannot fully close the energy budget, although the range of closure error is less than 15%formean annual results. The analysis here demonstrates the usefulness of basin-scale surface energy budget analysis for evaluating model skill and deficiencies. The operational (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, and VIC) and research (i.e., Noah-I and VIC4.0.5) NLDAS-2 land surface models exhibit similarities and differences in depicting basin-averaged energy components. For example, the energy components of the five models have similar seasonal cycles, but with different magnitudes. Generally, Noah and VIC overestimate (underestimate) sensible (latent) heat flux over several RFCs of the eastern CONUS. In contrast, Mosaic underestimates (overestimates) sensible (latent) heat flux over almost all 12 RFCs. The research Noah-I and VIC4.0.5 versions show moderate-to-large improvements (basin and model dependent) relative to their operational versions, which indicates likely pathways for future improvements in the operational NLDAS-2 system.

Energy↗

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

Intercomparison of surface meltwater routing models for the Greenland ice sheet and influence on subglacial effective pressures

Each summer, large volumes of surface meltwater drain off the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface through moulins to the bed, impacting subglacial hydrology and ice flow dynamics. Supraglacial surface routing delays may propagate to englacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, requiring accurate assessment to correctly estimate subglacial effective pressures. We compare hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models – the synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH), the bare-ice component of surface routing and lake filling (SRLF), and the rescaled width function (RWF) – for four internally drained catchments on the southwestern Greenland ice sheet surface. The routing models are forced identically using surface runoff from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale regional climate model (RCM). For each catchment, simulated moulin hydrographs are input to the SHAKTI subglacial hydrologic model to simulate diurnally varying subglacial effective-pressure variations in the vicinity of a single moulin. Overall, all three routing models produce more realistic moulin discharges than simply using RCM runoff outputs without surface routing but produce significant differences in peak moulin discharge and time to peak. In particular, the RWF yields later, smaller peak moulin discharges than the SUH or SRLF due to its representation of slow interfluve flow between supraglacial meltwater channels, and it can readily accommodate the seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks. Differences among the three routing models are reflected in a series of simple idealized subglacial hydrology simulations that yield different diurnal effective-pressure amplitudes; however, the supraglacial hydrologic system acts as short-term storage for surface meltwater, and the temporal mean effective pressure is relatively consistent across routing models.

Kang Yang↗

Assessing Eruption Column Height in Ancient Flood Basalt Eruptions

A buoyant plume model is used to explore the ability of flood basalt eruptions to inject climate-relevant gases into the stratosphere. An example from the 1986 Izu-Oshima basaltic fissure eruption validates the model's ability to reproduce the observed maximum plume heights of 12-16 km above sea level, sustained above fire-fountains. The model predicts maximum plume heights of 13-17 km for source widths of between 4-16 m when 32% (by mass) of the erupted magma is fragmented and involved in the buoyant plume (effective volatile content of 6 wt%). Assuming that the Miocene-age Roza eruption (part of the Columbia River Basalt Group) sustained fire-fountains of similar height to Izu-Oshima (1.6 km above the vent), we show that the Roza eruption could have sustained buoyant ash and gas plumes that extended into the stratosphere at approximately 45 deg N. Assuming 5 km long active fissure segments and 9000 Mt of SO2 released during explosive phases over a 10-15 year duration, the approximately 180 km of known Roza fissure length could have supported approximately 36 explosive events/phases, each with a duration of 3-4 days. Each 5 km fissure segment could have emitted 62 Mt of SO2 per day into the stratosphere while actively fountaining, the equivalent of about three 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions per day. Each fissure segment could have had one to several vents, which subsequently produced lava without significant fountaining for a longer period within the decades-long eruption. Sensitivity of plume rise height to ancient atmospheric conditions is explored. Although eruptions in the Deccan Traps (approximately 66 Ma) may have generated buoyant plumes that rose to altitudes in excess of 18 km, they may not have reached the stratosphere because the tropopause was substantially higher in the late Cretaceous. Our results indicate that some flood basalt eruptions, such as Roza, were capable of repeatedly injecting large masses of SO2 into the stratosphere. Thus sustained flood basalt eruptions could have influenced climate on time scales of decades to centuries but the location (i.e., latitude) of the province and relevant paleoclimate is important and must be considered.

climate↗

Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Large Transport Airplanes in Upset Conditions

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, research has been in progress to develop aerodynamic modeling methods for simulations that accurately predict the flight dynamics characteristics of large transport airplanes in upset conditions. The motivation for this research stems from the recognition that simulation is a vital tool for addressing loss-of-control accidents, including applications to pilot training, accident reconstruction, and advanced control system analysis. The ultimate goal of this effort is to contribute to the reduction of the fatal accident rate due to loss-of-control. Research activities have involved accident analyses, wind tunnel testing, and piloted simulation. Results have shown that significant improvements in simulation fidelity for upset conditions, compared to current training simulations, can be achieved using state-of-the-art wind tunnel testing and aerodynamic modeling methods. This paper provides a summary of research completed to date and includes discussion on key technical results, lessons learned, and future research needs.

Foster, John V.↗

Drag Prediction for the DLR-F6 Wing/Body and DPW Wing using CFL3D and OVERFLOW Overset Mesh

A series of overset grids was generated in response to the 3rd AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW-III) which preceded the 25th Applied Aerodynamics Conference in June 2006. DPW-III focused on accurate drag prediction for wing/body and wing-alone configurations. The grid series built for each configuration consists of a coarse, medium, fine, and extra-fine mesh. The medium mesh is first constructed using the current state of best practices for overset grid generation. The medium mesh is then coarsened and enhanced by applying a factor of 1.5 to each (I,J,K) dimension. The resulting set of parametrically equivalent grids increase in size by a factor of roughly 3.5 from one level to the next denser level. CFD simulations were performed on the overset grids using two different RANS flow solvers: CFL3D and OVERFLOW. The results were post-processed using Richardson extrapolation to approximate grid converged values of lift, drag, pitching moment, and angle-of-attack at the design condition. This technique appears to work well if the solution does not contain large regions of separated flow (similar to that seen n the DLR-F6 results) and appropriate grid densities are selected. The extra-fine grid data helped to establish asymptotic grid convergence for both the OVERFLOW FX2B wing/body results and the OVERFLOW DPW-W1/W2 wing-alone results. More CFL3D data is needed to establish grid convergence trends. The medium grid was utilized beyond the grid convergence study by running each configuration at several angles-of-attack so drag polars and lift/pitching moment curves could be evaluated. The alpha sweep results are used to compare data across configurations as well as across flow solvers. With the exception of the wing/body drag polar, the two codes compare well qualitatively showing consistent incremental trends and similar wing pressure comparisons.

Sclanfani, Anthony J.↗