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At least 343 records · Page 19

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Risk Analysis↗

High-power converters for space applications

Phase 1 was a concept definition effort to extend space-type dc/dc converter technology to the megawatt level with a weight of less than 0.1 kg/kW (220 lb./MW). Two system designs were evaluated in Phase 1. Each design operates from a 5 kV stacked fuel cell source and provides a voltage step-up to 100 kV at 10 A for charging capacitors (100 pps at a duty cycle of 17 min on, 17 min off). Both designs use an MCT-based, full-bridge inverter, gaseous hydrogen cooling, and crowbar fault protection. The GE-CRD system uses an advanced high-voltage transformer/rectifier filter is series with a resonant tank circuit, driven by an inverter operating at 20 to 50 kHz. Output voltage is controlled through frequency and phase shift control. Fast transient response and stability is ensured via optimal control. Super-resonant operation employing MCTs provides the advantages of lossless snubbing, no turn-on switching loss, use of medium-speed diodes, and intrinsic current limiting under load-fault conditions. Estimated weight of the GE-CRD system is 88 kg (1.5 cu ft.). Efficiency of 94.4 percent and total system loss is 55.711 kW operating at 1 MW load power. The Maxwell system is based on a resonance transformer approach using a cascade of five LC resonant sections at 100 kHz. The 5 kV bus is converted to a square wave, stepped-up to a 100 kV sine wave by the LC sections, rectified, and filtered. Output voltage is controlled with a special series regulator circuit. Estimated weight of the Maxwell system is 83.8 kg (4.0 cu ft.). Efficiency is 87.2 percent and total system loss is 146.411 kW operating at 1 MW load power.

Park, J. N.↗

Structural stability and artificial buckling modes in topology optimization

Abstract This paper demonstrates how a strain energy transition approach can be used to remove artificial buckling modes that often occur in stability constrained topology optimization problems. To simulate the structural response, a nonlinear large deformation hyperelastic simulation is performed, wherein the fundamental load path is traversed using Newton’s method and the critical buckling load levels are estimated by an eigenvalue analysis. The goal of the optimization is to minimize displacement, subject to constraints on the lowest critical buckling loads and maximum volume. The topology optimization problem is regularized via the Helmholtz PDE-filter and the method of moving asymptotes is used to update the design. The stability and sensitivity analyses are outlined in detail. The effectiveness of the energy transition scheme is demonstrated in numerical examples.

Dalklint, Anna (ORCID:0000000346195205)↗

Development of Advanced Methods of Structural and Trajectory Analysis for Transport Aircraft

In this report the author describes: (1) development of advanced methods of structural weight estimation, and (2) development of advanced methods of flight path optimization. A method of estimating the load-bearing fuselage weight and wing weight of transport aircraft based on fundamental structural principles has been developed. This method of weight estimation represents a compromise between the rapid assessment of component weight using empirical methods based on actual weights of existing aircraft and detailed, but time-consuming, analysis using the finite element method. The method was applied to eight existing subsonic transports for validation and correlation. Integration of the resulting computer program, PDCYL, has been made into the weights-calculating module of the AirCraft SYNThesis (ACSYNT) computer program. ACSYNT bas traditionally used only empirical weight estimation methods; PDCYL adds to ACSYNT a rapid, accurate means of assessing the fuselage and wing weights of unconventional aircraft. PDCYL also allows flexibility in the choice of structural concept, as well as a direct means of determining the impact of advanced materials on structural weight.

Ardema, Mark D.↗

Stress concentrations for straight-shank and countersunk holes in plates subjected to tension, bending, and pin loading

A three dimensional stress concentration analysis was conducted on straight shank and countersunk (rivet) holes in a large plate subjected to various loading conditions. Three dimensional finite element analysis were performed with 20 node isoparametric elements. The plate material was assumed to be linear elastic and isotropic, with a Poisson ratio of 0.3. Stress concentration along the bore of the hole were computed for several ratios of hole radius to plate thickness (0.1 to 2.5) and ratios of countersink depth to plate thickness (0.25 to 1). The countersink angles were varied from 80 to 100 degrees in some typical cases, but the angle was held constant at 100 degrees for most cases. For straight shank holes, three types of loading were considered: remote tension, remote bending, and wedge loading in the hole. Results for remote tension and wedge loading were used to estimate stress concentration for simulated rivet in pin loading. For countersunk holes only remote tension and bending were considered. Based on the finite element results, stress concentration equations were developed. Whenever possible, the present results were compared with other numerical solutions and experimental results from the literature.

Shivakumar, K. N.↗

Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings: The Potential for Cost Savings and CO 2 Reductions from Lighting and Cooling Measures

This report presents the estimated impact of lighting and cooling efficiency and demand flexibility measures in large office buildings in each state in the contiguous United States. It provides modeled results for three different metrics: bill savings, regional grid operational costs savings, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions. Lighting efficiency and demand flexibility are estimated to reduce load by up to 80 MWh/yr in a single large office building. These load reductions result in customer bill savings of up to $8,800/yr per building, with the highest savings in southern and midwestern states. Grid operating cost savings are estimated at up to $3,240/yr/building, with greatest benefit in southern and northeastern states. CO 2 emissions reduction potential is highest in the Dakotas, Nebraska, across the Midwest, in West Virginia, and in Mississippi (<48,200 kg/yr/building). Comparatively, cooling measures are found to have less load reduction potential (<28.5 MWh/yr/building), with the greatest potential in southern states including Texas, which ranks top of the list across several of the metrics studied. In numerous states, shifting cooling load to off-peak hours is found to increase costs and CO 2 emissions because precooling results in increased load during high-cost or high-CO 2 emissions periods. In general, focusing on cooling efficiency and load shedding has the potential for more savings. In all cases, the specific rate structure is a significant determinant in actual bill savings, which are up to $4,000/yr/building. To realize the full potential for bill savings through an energy measure, building operators must identify how the measure will change the building load pattern and the interaction of this load change with the applicable rate tariff. To realize CO 2 emissions reductions, industry and state coordination is needed to verify which fuel source is on the margin and then to create incentives for end users to reduce load during high-CO 2 emissions hours. Regular updates to data sets and analyses are critical. Regulators and policymakers are well positioned to facilitate the necessary coordination between the electric industry and building energy managers to develop appropriate price signals and incentives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Seasonal and Morphological Controls on Nitrate Retention in Arctic Deltas

Abstract Estimates of nitrate loading to the Arctic Ocean are limited by the lack of field observations within deltas partly due to logistical constraints. To overcome this limitation, we use a remote sensing framework to estimate retention of nitrate in Arctic deltas. We achieve this by coupling hydrological and biogeochemical process models at the network scale for five major Arctic deltas. Binary masks of delta channels were used to simulate flow direction and magnitude through networks. Models were parameterized using historical and seasonal observations. Simulated nitrate retention ranged from 2.9% to 15% of the incoming load. Retention rates were largest during winter but smallest during spring conditions when increased discharges export large nitrate masses to the coast. Under future climate scenarios, retention rates fall by ∼1%–10%. Arctic deltas have an important effect on the magnitude of nitrate entering Arctic seas and the inclusion of processing in deltas can improve flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Urban Aerial Taxi with Cryogenic Components under Design Environment for Novel Vertical Lift Vehicles (DELIVER)

Assessing the potential to bring 100 years of aeronautics knowledge to the entrepreneurs desktop to enable a design environment for emerging vertical lift vehicles is one goal for the NASAs Design Environment for Novel Vertical Lift Vehicles (DELIVER). As part of this effort, a system study was performed using a notional, urban aerial taxi system to better understand vehicle requirements along with the tools and methods capability to assess these vehicles and their subsystems using cryogenic cooled components. The baseline was a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft, with all-electric propulsion system assuming 15 year technology performance levels and its capability limited to a pilot with one or two people and cargo. Hydrocarbon-fueled hybrid concepts were developed to improve mission capabilities. The hybrid systems resulted in significant improvements in maximum range and number of on demand mobility (ODM) missions that could be completed before refuel or recharge. An important consideration was thermal management, including the choice for air-cooled or cryogenic cooling using liquid natural gas (LNG) fuel. Cryogenic cooling for critical components can have important implications on component performance and size. Thermal loads were also estimated, subsequent effort will be required to verify feasibility for cooling airflow and packaging. LNG cryogenic cooling of selected components further improved vehicle range and reduced thermal loads, but the same concerns for airflow and packaging still need to be addressed. The use of the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) tool for vehicle sizing and mission analysis appears to be capable of supporting analyses for present and future types of vehicles, missions, propulsion, and energy sources. Further efforts are required to develop verified models for these new types of propulsion and energy sources in the size and use envisioned for these emerging vehicle and mission classes.

systems analysis↗

Assessment of Urban Aerial Taxi with Cryogenic Components Under Design Environment for Novel Vertical Lift Vehicles (DELIVER)

Assessing the potential to bring 100 years of aeronautics knowledge to the entrepreneurs desktop to enable a design environment for emerging vertical lift vehicles is one goal for the NASA's Design Environment for Novel Vertical Lift Vehicles (DELIVER). As part of this effort, a system study was performed using a notional, urban aerial taxi system to better understand vehicle requirements along with the tools and methods capability to assess these vehicles and their subsystems using cryogenic cooled components. The baseline was a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft, with all-electric propulsion system assuming 15 year technology performance levels and its capability limited to a pilot with one or two people and cargo. Hydrocarbon-fueled hybrid concepts were developed to improve mission capabilities. The hybrid systems resulted in significant improvements in maximum range and number of on demand mobility (ODM) missions that could be completed before refuel or recharge. An important consideration was thermal management, including the choice for air-cooled or cryogenic cooling using liquid natural gas (LNG) fuel. Cryogenic cooling for critical components can have important implications on component performance and size. Thermal loads were also estimated, subsequent effort will be required to verify feasibility for cooling airflow and packaging. LNG cryogenic cooling of selected components further improved vehicle range and reduced thermal loads, but the same concerns for airflow and packaging still need to be addressed. The use of the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) tool for vehicle sizing and mission analysis appears to be capable of supporting analyses for present and future types of vehicles, missions, propulsion, and energy sources. Further efforts are required to develop verified models for these new types of propulsion and energy sources in the size and use envisioned for these emerging vehicle and mission classes.

thermal analysis↗

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable waste oxide loading (WOL) was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glass when no uncertainties were taken into account. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). The immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with waste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MT. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints, and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable waste oxide loading (WOL) was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glass when no uncertainties were taken into account. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). The immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with waste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MT. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Designing Power-Transmission Shafting

Consideration of stress and fatigue life gives better designs. Shafting-design procedure developed based on fatigue-strength considerations. Method accounts for effects of static and constant-amplitude fluctuating loads. Also provides shaft-diameter estimates for variable amplitude-loading duty cycles. Method lends itself to computer-aided design of both aerospace and industrial shafting.

Loewenthal, S. H.↗

Ash loading and insolation at Hanford, Washington during and after the eruption of Mount St. Helens

The effects of volcanic ash suspended in the atmosphere on the incident solar radiation was monitored at the Hanford Meteorological Station (HMS) subsequent to the major eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980. Passage of the ash plume over Hanford resulted in a very dramatic decrease of solar radiation intensity to zero. A reduction in visibility to less than 1 km was observed, as great quantities of ash fell out of the plume onto the ground. Ash loading in the atmosphere remained very high for several days following the eruption, primarily as a result of resuspension from the surface. Visibilities remained low (2 to 8 km) during this period. Estimates of atmospheric turbidity were made from the ratio of diffuse-to-direct solar radiation; these turbidities were used to estimate extinction along a horizontal path, a quantity which can be related to visibility. Comparisons of observed and estimated visibilities were very good, in spite of the rather coarse approximations used in the estimates. Atmospheric clarity and visibility improved to near pre-eruption conditions following a period of rain showers. The diffuse-to-direct ratio of solar radiation provided a useful index for estimating volcanic ash loading of the atmosphere.

Laulainen, N. S.↗

Distributed Load Shedding Application Architecture and Bi-Level Predictive Estimator Algorithm

Increasing penetrations of distributed renewables are decreasing the effectiveness of traditional decentralized under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes. As more distribution circuits begin to back-feed the transmission system, operation of traditional UFLS may exacerbate frequency instability. This paper presents the conceptual framework for a data-rich environment to coordinate UFLS across multiple distribution providers based on the laminar coordination framework in order to ensure optimal adaptive setting of UFLS relays. Communication and control are enabled through a distributed implementation of the IEC 61968-1 Common Information Model message bus structure. In addition to the proposed architecture, a novel adaptive UFLS scheme informed by a bi-level state estimator to create optimal relay setpoints is introduced. Initial simulation results are presented for the IEEE 14-bus test system on scenarios leading to mis-operation of traditional UFLS.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

Calibration of V-Notch and Compound Weirs for Subsurface Drainage Water Level Control Structures

Highlights Accurate discharge estimation is important when evaluating edge-of-field conservation practices. V-notch weir equations were developed for three sizes of subsurface drainage water level control structures. Compound weir equations were developed for subsurface drainage water level control structures. The compound weir equation accurately estimates discharge for flows within and overtopping the V-notch. Abstract.Numerous edge-of-field conservation practices use subsurface drainage water level control structures to monitor water levels and estimate discharge. In a control structure, procedures for calculating discharge when flow depth (head) exceeds the V-notch depth and overflows in the rectangular portion of the compound weir (CW) are ambiguous. In this study, we developed calibration equations for V-notch weirs in Agri Drain inline water level control structures of different sizes for flows within the V-notch and overtopping flow events. The discharge equation for overtopping events (Q CW , L s -1 ) was determined as: Q CW = a 1 (h b1 -h 1 b1 )+a 2 (W e -W v )h 1 b2 , where h and h 1 are heads above vertex/bottom and top of V-notch (cm), respectively, W is the effective crest width of rectangular weir (cm), W v is the top width of V-notch (cm), a 1 and b 1 are parameters for V-notch weir obtained by calibration, and a 2 and b 2 are calibration parameters for rectangular weir obtained from literature. Results were compared with a weir equation available in the literature (Q V+R ), which combines a V-notch equation with a head equal to V-depth and a rectangular weir equation for flow above V-depth. Discharge at overflow was estimated with high accuracy with Q CW, whereas Q V+R underestimated discharge (e.g., PBIAS of 0.67% vs. 17.82% for a 15.2 cm structure). An example using Q V+R resulted in a 14% lower annual estimation of nitrate-N load diverted to a saturated buffer than Q CW due to underestimation of drainage discharge during overflow events. Results suggest that the developed equation (Q CW ) accurately estimates discharge and will thus improve the estimated N load compared to Q V+R . Keywords: Compound weir, Flow monitoring, Subsurface drainage, V-notch weir, Water level control structure, Weir calibration.

Agriculture↗