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At least 343 records · Page 19

An experimental and kinetic modeling study of cyclopentane and dimethyl ether blends

Cyclopentane is a suitable naphthene, or cycloalkane, in a palette for multi-component gasoline surrogate fuels due to its presence in market fuels and its relevance to alkyl substituted cyclopentanes also present. However, the previous oxidation studies of cyclopentane have primarily focused on neat mixtures. Blending cyclopentane with dimethyl ether in this work therefore serves to inform our understanding of, and improve predictive models for, multi-component mixtures. Here, the auto-ignition of cyclopentane/dimethyl ether blends was studied in a high-pressure shock tube and in a rapid compression machine. A wide range of temperatures (650 – 1350 K) and elevated pressures of 20 and 40 bar were studied at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 in air for two blending ratios (30/70 and 70/30 mole% cyclopentane/di-methyl ether mixtures). A detailed kinetic model for cyclopentane was revised to capture the measured ignition delay times and apparent heat release rates in this study. Literature ignition delay time, jet-stirred reactor, and laminar burning velocity measurements of neat cyclopentane were used as additional validation. Improvements to the kinetic model were based on recent literature studies related to sub-models including cyclopentene and cyclopentadiene which allowed the removal of previous local rate-constant optimizations. Low temperature reactivity of cyclopentane was found to be controlled by the branching ratio between concerted elimination of HO͘ 2 and the strained formation of Q&#775OOH radicals in agreement with previous studies. In this study, the low branching ratio of Q&#775OOH formation increases the influence of a competing consumption pathway for cyclopentyl-peroxy (CPTO͘ 2 J) radicals. The sensitivity of the simulated ignition delay times to the formation of cyclopentyl hydroperoxide (CPTO 2 H), from CPTO͘ 2 J and HO͘ 2 , is discussed. The current model is used to analyze the influence of dimethyl ether on the reactivity of cyclopentane in the context of previous literature studies of dimethyl ether binary blends with ethanol and toluene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling hydrodynamic and biomass pyrolysis effects of recycled product gases in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor

Fast pyrolysis of biomass in a fluidized bed reactor is typically conducted in a nitrogen gas environment. Recycling product gas can improve the economics of operating such a system by reducing reliance on pure process streams, but much less is known about how recycling pyrolysis product gas may affect fluidization behavior and pyrolysis kinetics. Therefore, gas effects in a fluidized bed biomass pyrolysis reactor were investigated using engineering correlations, low-order models, and CFD simulations for N 2 , H 2 , CO, CO 2 , and CH 4 carrier gas mixtures. Here, our findings reveal viscosity of a gas mixture can be significantly underestimated depending on the model and correlation. Furthermore, fluidization characteristics such as U mf and gas-solid convective heat transfer can be greatly affected by the gas properties. By utilizing H 2 as the fluidizing gas (instead of N 2 ), while maintaining a constant fluidization ratio (U s /U mf ), the bio-oil yields can be increased ~5%. This is due to the lower density H 2 producing similar hydrodynamics as N 2 at higher gas flow rates. These higher flow rates result in shorter gas residence times, and as a result, less secondary reactions that convert bio-oil to light gases and char. Model results also suggest that bio-oil yield is not significantly affected by the type of carrier gas used, with bio-oil yield varying by ~2% across different gas mixtures while maintaining constant flow rate. In conclusion, this indicates that recycled pyrolytic gas can be used as the carrier gas for biomass pyrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Application of Linear Additive Conditions for Near-Infrared Diffuse Reflectance Absorption Spectroscopy

Determining the homogeneity of material mixing in real time during product processing is critical for quality control. According to the Kubelka–Munk (K-M) function of diffuse reflectance absorption spectrum, absorbance (A) is approximately linear with the content of the components when the sample scattering coefficient (S) is in a certain range. The S is determined by the particle size of powder samples. Therefore, this study determined particle size ranges that satisfy linear additivity in near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (NIRDRS). Thus, the proposed NIRDRS analysis technique can be used to determine the homogeneity of material mixes or analyze the percentages of the components in the mixture. In this study, vitamin B3 and vitamin C were used for preparing mixed samples with varying percentages. The experimental results revealed that linear additivity is satisfied when the powder particle size is in the range of less than 280, 280–450, and 450–900 μm. When the confidence level is 0.01, the actual mixed spectra are not significantly different from the “simulated mixed spectra” constructed by linear addition, with their relative deviations less than 1.08%. The absolute errors of the actual and analytic percentages were within 2.98% for each component in the mixtures. The above conclusions also hold for sorghum, which has a complex material composition. Statistical models cannot analyze the percentages of components in the mixture. In contrast, linear addition and direct calibration approach avoids the use of a large number of samples for statistical modeling and analyze the percentages of mixed samples. Meanwhile, it can be used to discriminate and analyze the material mixing uniformity by building a mechanistic model.

Feng, Zhiyue↗

Enhancing photoionization rate calculations in low-temperature plasmas using spectral methods

Photoionization plays a central role in the development of streamer discharges and other non-equilibrium plasma phenomena. It creates seed electrons, which are essential for positive streamer propagation, allowing the ionization front to move forward. Because of this, accurate modeling of photoionization is very important for predicting streamer behavior and plasma evolution. The photoionization process in air (N 2 – O 2 mixture) is often described by the Zheleznyak model (1982). This model is usually solved through Helmholtz-type equations that approximate the Zheleznyak photoionization model (Zheleznyak et al. 1982) as Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Conventional numerical methods, such as the Finite Difference Method (FDM) or Finite Volume Method (FVM), are widely used to solve these equations. Although they are prevalent, the computational cost of these methods due to their need for matrix operations and iterative solver is demanding. To address this challenge, this work develops a spectral solver based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) combined with Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) and Discrete Sine Transform (DST) to calculate the photoionization rate efficiently in an axisymmetric cylindrical domain. This method naturally satisfies the boundary conditions used in the model and converts the PDE into algebraic ones in spectral space. Thus, avoids the need for iterative matrix solvers. When compared with FDM results, it is demonstrated that the new solver not only maintains accuracy, but also reduces the computational cost, showing a performance increase of approximately 100 compared to FDM over a wide range of problem sizes. The method is parallelized using Message Passing Interface (MPI) and has been integrated into a fluid plasma model for streamer simulation. Here, this FFT-based approach provides a fast and reliable alternative for calculating photoionization in fluid models, helping large-scale plasma simulations run faster and efficiently, and allows higher-resolution simulation without extra computational cost.

Axisymmetric system↗

A fluctuating hydrodynamics model for nanoscale surfactant-laden interfaces

A multispecies diffuse interface model is formulated in a fluctuating hydrodynamics framework for the purpose of simulating surfactant interfaces at the nanoscale. The model generalizes previous work to ternary mixtures, employing a Cahn-Hilliard free energy density combined with incompressible, isothermal fluctuating hydrodynamics where dissipative fluxes include both deterministic and stochastic terms. The intermolecular parameters in the free energy are chosen such that one species acts as a partially miscible surfactant. From Laplace pressure measurements, we show that in this model the surface tension decreases linearly with surfactant concentration, leading to Marangoni convection for interfaces with concentration gradients. In the capillary wave spectrum for interfaces with and without surfactant, we find that for the former, the spectrum deviates significantly from classical capillary wave theory, presumably due to Gibbs elasticity. In non-equilibrium simulations of the Rayleigh-Plateau instability, deterministic simulations showed that the surfactant delays pinching of a fluid cylinder into droplets. However, stochastic simulations indicate that thermal fluctuations disrupt the surfactant's stabilizing effect. Similarly, the spreading of a patch of surfactant, driven by Marangoni convection, was found to be partially suppressed by thermal fluctuations.

Capillary waves↗

Combined Experimental/Numerical Study of the Soot Formation Process in a Gasoline Direct-Injection Spray in the Presence of Laser-Induced Plasma Ignition

Here, combustion issued from an eight-hole, direct-injection spray was experimentally studied in a constant-volume pre-burn combustion vessel using simultaneous high-speed diffused back-illumination extinction imaging (DBIEI) and OH* chemiluminescence. DBIEI has been employed to observe the liquid-phase of the spray and to quantitatively investigate the soot formation and oxidation taking place during combustion. The fuel-air mixture was ignited with a plasma induced by a single-shot Nd:YAG laser, permitting precise control of the ignition location in space and time. OH* chemiluminescence was used to track the high-temperature ignition and flame. The study showed that increasing the delay between the end of injection and ignition drastically reduces soot formation without necessarily compromising combustion efficiency. For long delays between the end of injection and ignition (1.9 ms) soot formation was eliminated in the main downstream charge of the fuel spray. However, poorly atomized and large droplets formed at the end of injection (dribble) eventually do form soot near the injector even when none is formed in the main charge. The quantitative soot measurements for these spray and ignition scenarios, resolved in time and space, represents a significant new achievement. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed to assess spray mixing and combustion. An analysis of the predicted fuel-air mixture in key regions, defined based upon experimental observations, was used to explain different flame propagation speeds and soot production tendencies when varying ignition timing. The mixture analysis indicates that soot production can be avoided if the flame propagates into regions where the equivalence ratio (Φ) is already below 2. Reactive RANS simulations have also been performed, but with a poor match against the experiment, as the flame speed and heat-release rate are largely over estimated. This modeling weakness appears related to a very high level of turbulent viscosity predicted for the high-momentum spray in the RANS simulations, which is an important consideration for modeling ignition and flame propagation in mixtures immediately created by the spray.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fractional vortices, Z 2 gauge theory, and the confinement-deconfinement transition

Here, in this Letter we discuss the classical three-dimensional XY model whose nearest-neighbor interaction is a mixture of cos (θ i -θ j ) (ferromagnetic) and cos 2 (θ i -θ j ) (nematic). This model is dual to a theory with integer and half-integer vortices. While both types of vortices interact with a noncompact U(1) gauge field, the half-integer vortices interact with an extra interaction mediated by a Z 2 gauge field. We shall discuss the confinement-deconfinement transition of the half-integer vortices, the Wilson and the 't Hooft loops, and their mutual statistics in path integral language. In addition, we shall present a quantum version of the classical model which exhibits these physics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Inverse-Velocity Transformation Wall Model for Reacting Turbulent Hypersonic Boundary Layers

The present study builds on prior work by taking advantage of the novel framework proposed by Griffin et al. (hereafter referred to as the GFM) as a baseline. The model is progressively extended to multicomponent reacting mixtures, accounting for differential diffusion and finite-rate chemistry in a similar fashion to Di Renzo & Urzay and Di Renzo et al. The accuracy of the present approach, as well the prior model of Di Renzo & Urzay, is assessed in an a priori sense for the first time in a turbulent reacting boundary layer, using the boundary-layer data of Williams et al. Five species are included in the present analysis, i.e., N s = 5, namely N 2 , O 2 , NO, N and O, a neutral mixture most representative of dissociation/recombination phenomena for temperatures below 6000 K. A schematic of a flow over a wedge representative of the described configuration is presented in Figure 1. The brief is organized as follows: In Section 2, the wall-model equations and the computational framework are presented. In Section 3, the a priori results of the proposed model are described and compared to the extended EWM. Finally, in Section 4, some conclusions are offered.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermosteam: BioSTEAM's Premier Thermodynamic Engine

Thermosteam is a thermodynamic engine capable of solving mass and energy balances, estimating mixture properties, solving thermodynamic phase equilibria, and modeling stoichiometric reactions. All chemical data in Thermosteam is imported from the chemicals library, an open-source compilation of data and functions for the estimation of pure component chemical and mixture properties. Thermosteam’s fast and flexible platform has enabled the evaluation of conceptual and emerging biochemical production processes. The Biorefinery Simulation and Techno-Economic Analysis Modules (BioSTEAM) — capable of modeling reactors, distillation columns, heat exchangers, and other unit operations — has adopted Thermosteam as its premier thermodynamic engine. Published biorefinery designs modeled in BioSTEAM implement thermodynamic property packages created with Thermosteam, including a cornstover biorefinery for the production of cellulosic ethanol, a lipid-cane biorefinery for the co-production of ethanol and biodiesel, and a wheatstraw biorefinery for the production of cellulosic ethanol.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design of Multi-Stage Solvent Extraction Process for Separation of Rare Earth Elements

Flowsheet design and stage determination for the separation of rare earth elements (REEs) using solvent extraction (SX) is a challenging task because of the chemical similarity of the REEs. Low separation factors between the elements and complex equilibrium chemistry provide unique challenges to designing an efficient flowsheet for the separation of elements. The multi-stage nature of the SX process adds further complexity, making the assessment of products for a proposed design and stage combination difficult. Therefore, to develop a SX flowsheet, it is essential to quantify the performance for various design and separation conditions. This paper attempts to address the challenge by utilizing an equilibrium and process modeling approach. Results from a bench-scale study performed on a 10 g/L rare earth salt mixture were used in studying the extraction/stripping behavior and developing equilibrium models. DEHPA with TBP as a phase modifier was used as an extractant, while hydrochloric acid was utilized as a stripping agent. The results obtained were used in developing extraction/stripping models, which were integrated into a process framework of a SX train in a Matlab/Simulink environment. The models were programmed as a function block routine and used for developing a flowsheet, which was simulated for differing separation and design conditions. To identify optimum stage combinations, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) routine was developed and implemented for each SX train. Recovery and purity of elements of interest were used as objective function criteria. The stage combination leading to the minimization of the objective function was used to identify the optimum stage combination for a series of SX trains to attempt a balance of purity and recovery. The models and optimization method were implemented to separate a feed mixture containing REEs, which indicated that 99.52 and 85.41 percent purity is achievable for Yttrium and Lanthanum separation using 8-12-3 and 10-3-5 stage combination for loading, scrubbing, and striping. The model also indicated difficult separability between neodymium, praseodymium, and cerium.

Srivastava, Vaibhav (ORCID:0000000212645987)↗

Generative Electrolyte Solvent and Formulation Discovery

Molecular mixtures and/or formulations are of great importance in fields ranging from materials science to pharmaceuticals to chemistry. In batteries, electrolytes are complex molecular mixtures consisting of multiple salts and solvents and additives at different concentrations that dictate battery capacity, safety, and cycle life, among others. Unfortunately, due to the complex composition and infinite design space as well as the conflicting property requirements, electrolyte design is the rate-determining step in the design of next generation battery chemistries. In this work, we develop a transformer-based generative AI model − ElectrolyteGPT − capable of generating solvents and electrolyte formulations to satisfy a wide range of desired property requirements. First, we curate an electrolyte-relevant database and develop a new line notation for formulations. Then, we show that ElectrolyteGPT can generate solvents and formulations conditioned on a wide range of important electrolyte properties such as ionic conductivity, oxidative stability, Coulombic efficiency, viscosity, and more. Finally, we experimentally synthesize the generated solvents and fabricate the electrolyte formulations and show that they can meet the desired property requirements and enable longterm cycling in energy-dense anode-free lithium metal batteries. Our work showcases the ability of generative models to address challenges in molecular mixture design for next generation batteries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Chemical mixture exposure patterns and obesity among U.S. adults in NHANES 2005–2012

The effect of chemical exposure on obesity has raised great concerns. Real-world chemical exposure always imposes mixture impacts, however their exposure patterns and the corresponding associations with obesity have not been fully evaluated. To discover obesity-related mixed chemical exposure patterns in the general U.S. population. Sparse Decompositional Regression (SDR), a model adapted from sparse representation learning technique, was developed to identify exposure patterns of chemical mixtures with exclusion (non-targeted model) and inclusion (targeted model) of health outcomes. We assessed the relationships between the identified chemical mixture patterns and obesity-related indexes. We also conducted a comprehensive evaluation of this SDR model by comparing to the existing models, including generalized linear regression model (GLM), principal component analysis (PCA), and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR). Eight core exposure patterns were identified using the non-targeted SDR model. Patterns of high levels of MEP, high levels of naphthalene metabolites (ΣOH-Nap), and a pattern of high exposure levels of MCOP, MCNP, and MCPP were positively associated with obesity. Patterns of high levels of BP3, and a pattern of higher mixed levels of MPB, PPB, and MEP were found to have negative associations. Associations were strengthened using the targeted SDR model. In the single chemical analysis by GLM, BP3, MBP, PPB, MCOP, and MCNP showed significant associations with obesity or body indexes. The SDR model exceeded the performance of PCA in pattern identification. Both SDR and BKMR identified a positive contribution of ΣOH-Nap and MCOP, as well as a negative contribution of BP3 and PPB to obesity. Our study identified five core exposure patterns of chemical mixtures significantly associated with obesity using the newly developed SDR model. The SDR model could open a new avenue for assessing health effects of environmental mixture contaminants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soot formation and precursor chemistry in Counterflow flames of aviation fuel surrogates

To meet market demands, the aviation sector is interested in utilizing drop-in Synthetic Aviation Turbine Fuels (SATF), either as neat fuels or in blends with conventional Jet A. SATF currently approved in standard specifications may have lower aromatic content with significant fractions of normal, branched, and cyclo-alkanes. Fundamental studies on soot formation from aviation fuels (Jet A, SATF) and their surrogate components are essential to understand how fuel composition influences soot and soot precursor formation. Here, this study reports new measurements of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and soot in counterflow diffusion flames (CDFs) of aviation fuel surrogates. Both intrusive and non-intrusive diagnostics are employed to determine the profiles of temperature, gas phase species, PAHs (up to C16), and soot volume fraction (SVF) in CDFs of iso-octane and surrogate mixtures. These measurements shed light on the transition of soot precursors to primary soot particles. In addition to serving as a common surrogate component in Jet A surrogate mixtures, iso-octane is a template species for larger, less volatile branched alkanes found in SATF mixtures. The newly developed Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) PAH and soot model successfully captures temperature, precursor species, and SVF profiles for the mixtures and conditions discussed in this work. Finally, a high-fidelity surrogate for Jet A is proposed that matches targeted physical and chemical properties well, while leveraging the wide range of candidate fuel molecules available in the LLNL detailed chemical model. The proposed surrogate formulation is validated against newly acquired measurements of the surrogate and literature measurements of Jet A. These new experiments and simulations provide critical insights into the PAH and soot formation from aviation fuels. Reaction pathways which require further investigation are highlighted, such that future work may bridge the remaining quantitative gaps in predicting soot formation from aviation fuel surrogates and surrogate components.

Aviation fuels↗

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗

Combustion of petroleum-based transportation fuels and their blends with biofuels: a new approach for developing surrogates and understanding the effects of blending

Accurate and versatile reaction mechanisms are necessary to simulate combustion of transportation fuels blended with biofuels for improving fuel efficiency, reducing fuel consumption and mitigating the formation and emissions of combustion products harmful to the atmosphere. This project involved a combined effort of simulation and experimentation of liquid fuel burning using a combustion configuration amenable to numerical modeling with a level of detail not previously achieved for blends of biofuels with gasoline certification and surrogate fuels. The configuration of an isolated droplet burning under conditions where gas transport arises solely from fuel evaporation was selected as the platform for experiments and numerical modeling. The spherical symmetry and one-dimensional gas transport that results enabled simulating the droplet burning process with an precedented level of detail. Processes associated with unsteady gas and liquid transport, formation of particulate and gaseous products, radiation, multicomponent phase equilibrium at the droplet surface and moving boundary effects from droplet evaporation, were incorporated in a single numerical framework. The numerical model was based on the open source code OPENSmoke++ (OS) adapted to incorporate the effects noted above. In addition to simulation, an experimental design was developed for the isolated droplet configuration to acquire the data needed for validating the numerical model. Several broad accomplishments of the project were the following: demonstrating generally excellent agreement between measured and simulated combustion parameters for the fuel blends examined that included mixtures of heptane and isobutanol as a model system, and surrogates comprised of up to seven miscible components mixed with ethanol or isobutanol as representative biofuel additives; using a new approach to validate reaction mechanisms of biofuel blends which incorporated fuel evaporation into the process along with developing an experimental design for acquiring data to compare with simulations; and showing that a wealth of information could be obtained on the combustion physics of biofuels from experiments requiring volumes on the order of only nanoliters at a time thus opening the way to evaluating biofuels synthesized by new processes early in development.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Development of simplified model for injection rate prediction of diesel injectors during transient and steady operation

Determining the injection rate of the diesel injector during the transient short injection operations is a critical matter to enhance the combustion process by improving air/fuel mixture formation. In this regard, numerous injection models have been suggested in the literature to predict the injection rate accurately. However, such algorithms have not precisely predicted the rate of injection (ROI) in transient short injection events. In addition, most of those models require many input parameters to characterize hydraulic and mechanical subsystems in the injector, which can make them inconvenient to tune for different injector specifications, in other words not suitable for universal usage. Therefore, our study aims to develop a simple injection model that can predict injection rate precisely in the short and long injection durations considering relatively fewer input parameters. The model traces the pressure variation inside the sac based on the bulk modulus theory to predict nozzle exit velocity, thus the injection rate of the injector. In the algorithm, the bulk modulus of fuel (E) and discharge coefficients of the nozzle hole and needle seat (C d,H and C d,N ) have been considered to vary rather than set constant during the injection process since such flow parameters would have a critical impact on the flow development at the transient stage, thus affecting the injection rate of diesel injectors. Here with this modelling strategy, the accuracy of the new model on ROI prediction was confirmed with acceptable model error for both short and long injection durations by validating against experimental results. To understand the effect of the new model scheme on ROI prediction, ROI results with the new model have been discussed by comparing it with the ROI results predicted with constant flow parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-precision monitoring of outgassing species in model extreme ultraviolet photoresists with a cavity ring-down spectrometer

Background Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photoresists play a pivotal role in advancing nanopatterning technologies by balancing image quality and sensitivity. The outgassing behavior of photoresist thin films under EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) exposure reveals chemical details relevant to their performance. Aim Here, we focus on utilizing an analytical technique not previously used in photolithography, the tabletop cavity ring-down spectrometer, to investigate outgassing dynamics in EUV photoresists, enabling precise chemical identification and deeper insights into resist processing. Approach The spectrometer’s enhanced laser path length (∼ 20 km) and broadband absorption capabilities in the C–H overtone region allow for sensitive and temporally resolved detection of mixtures of outgassed species. Using a model resist comprising a polymer matrix with a photoacid generator and quencher, we analyzed the influence of time delays between exposure and post-exposure bake (PEB) as well as storage under varying environmental conditions. Results Suppression of isobutylene outgassing and thickness loss was observed with extended delays between exposure and PEB, potentially linked to water absorption and acid deactivation. The technique proved highly effective in distinguishing subtle chemical differences between processing stages. Conclusions Delay times and their environmental conditions, particularly humidity, reduce outgassing and thickness loss of photoresists during PEB, suggesting decreased acid-driven deprotection. This can potentially impact sensitivity, defectivity, and roughness of resist patterns, necessitating precise monitoring and control.

Extreme ultraviolet photoresists↗

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗