Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “model performance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Profiles of Micrometeorological Variables in a Tropical Premontane Rainforest Using Multi-Layered CLM (CLM-ML)

This study updates the multi-layered Community Land Model (CLM-ml) for hillslopes and compares predictions from against observations collected in tropical montane rainforest, Costa Rica. Modifications are made in order to capture a wider array of vertical leaf area distributions, predict CO 2 profiles, account for soil respiration, and adjust wind forcings for difficult topographic settings. Test results indicate that the modified multi-layer CLM model can successfully replicate the shape of various micrometeorological profiles (humidity, CO 2 , temperature, and wind speed) under the canopy. In the single-layer models (CLM4.5 and CLM5), excessive day-to-night differences in leaf temperature and leaf wetness were originally noted, but CLM-ml significantly improved these issues, decreasing the amplitudes of diurnal cycles by 67% and 47%. Sub-canopy considerations, such as canopy shapes and turbulent transfer parameters, also played a significant role in model performance. More importantly, unlike single layer models, the results that CLM-ml produces can be compared to variables measured within the canopy to provide far more detailed diagnostic information. Further observations and model developments, aimed at reflecting surface heterogeneity, will be necessary to adequately capture the complexity and the features of the tropical montane rainforest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of modular analytical wake models to the Lillgrund wind plant

Efficient and accurate wake models are required for wind plant performance modeling and the suite of engineering processes that support wind plant layout, control, and monitoring. Although many analytical and engineering wake models with low computational costs have been proposed, their ability to represent the power production of large wind plants in a wide range of atmospheric conditions is not completely understood. The following validation study reviews the underlying theory for analytical wake models, outlines quality control procedures for observational data, and compares model results with observational data from the Lillgrund Wind Plant. Lillgrund makes a valuable case study for wake modeling because of its regular arrangement and the relatively close spacing of constituent wind turbines, which lead to regular and significant wake interactions within the wind plant and the development of deep array flow conditions. Formulations for the velocity deficit, wake-added turbulence, and wake superposition methods are considered in a modular sense, yielding many possible configurations to represent wind turbine wakes, of which seven are examined in detail. Velocity deficit models that account for flow conditions in the near wake are better able to reproduce power production for wind turbines in the transitional region of the wind plant, where wind turbines experience as many as five wakes from upstream turbines. Finally, in the deep array, where power production reaches asymptotic values and wake statistics become quasi-periodic, wake superposition schemes become the largest driver in error reduction; using the linear or maximum wake superposition methods can reduce the relative root mean square error by as much as 40% in the deep array.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Code Description for "Brief Communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy ground surface temperature sensors"

Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on permafrost in the Arctic. We train a random forest machine learning model to predict snow depth from variability in ground surface temperature. To our knowledge, this is the first time that small ground surface temperature sensors have been used to estimate snow depth. The model performs well at sites where the model was trained and at pan-arctic evaluation sites (RMSE <= 0.15 m). Small temperature sensors are cheap and easy-to-deploy, so this technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring to an extent previously infeasible. The model is flexible and can be applied to datasets retroactively to retrieve snow depth estimates at additional sites. This code package includes a *.joblib file of the trained random forest model and a *.ipynb file showing how to clean input data, train the random forest model, and apply the model.

Bachand, Claire↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 2021 Blind PVPMC Modeling Intercomparison

This document provides the instructions for participating in the 2021 blind photovoltaic (PV) modeling intercomparison organized by the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC). It describes the system configurations, metadata, and other information necessary for the modeling exercise. The practical details of the validation datasets are also described. The datasets were published online in open access in April 2023, after completing the analysis of the results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

An extended focused assessment with sonography in trauma ultrasound tissue-mimicking phantom for developing automated diagnostic technologies

Medical imaging-based triage is critical for ensuring medical treatment is timely and prioritized. However, without proper image collection and interpretation, triage decisions can be hard to make. While automation approaches can enhance these triage applications, tissue phantoms must be developed to train and mature these novel technologies. Here, we have developed a tissue phantom modeling the ultrasound views imaged during the enhanced focused assessment with sonography in trauma exam (eFAST). The tissue phantom utilized synthetic clear ballistic gel with carveouts in the abdomen and rib cage corresponding to the various eFAST scan points. Various approaches were taken to simulate proper physiology without injuries present or to mimic pneumothorax, hemothorax, or abdominal hemorrhage at multiple locations in the torso. Multiple ultrasound imaging systems were used to acquire ultrasound scans with or without injury present and were used to train deep learning image classification predictive models. Performance of the artificial intelligent (AI) models trained in this study achieved over 97% accuracy for each eFAST scan site. We used a previously trained AI model for pneumothorax which achieved 74% accuracy in blind predictions for images collected with the novel eFAST tissue phantom. Grad-CAM heat map overlays for the predictions identified that the AI models were tracking the area of interest for each scan point in the tissue phantom. Overall, the eFAST tissue phantom ultrasound scans resembled human images and were successful in training AI models. Tissue phantoms are critical first steps in troubleshooting and developing medical imaging automation technologies for this application that can accelerate the widespread use of ultrasound imaging for emergency triage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

De-Risking Large-Scale PV Systems Through Data Analytics

Large-scale photovoltaic system performance analysis is being conducted within the US Department of Energy's-sponsored PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative. This collaboration with commercial PV system owners collects and evaluates PV field performance data, and provides reports on aggregated results. Drawing on over 2200 sites across the US and over 24,000 separate PV inverters we have collected in excess of 8.3 gigawatts (GW) of performance data, representing 6-7% of the entire US installed PV capacity. A mixture of utility-scale and large commercial systems are represented, averaging 4.1 megawatts (MW) in size and 5 years in age. Initial results show average system degradation rates at -0.75% / year, which is slightly higher than historically reported module-level values of -0.5%/year. We also found that the availability of systems averaged 97.7%, which is lower than the typical 99% uptime assumed by many project economic forecasts. Given these results, we compared monthly performance with expected production values, based on satellite weather data and a simple PVWatts performance model. We found that systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation over 90% of the time, with a fleet average vs expected monthly value of 0.994. We also evaluated the impact of extreme weather events on system performance, and found a range of short-term and longer-term performance effects ranging from grid outage, system downtime, module damage and accelerated long-term degradation rate.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel Bonding and its Impact on Axial Gas Communication Behavior in Light-Water Reactor Fuel Rods

Axial gas communication concerns the flow along the axial axis of nuclear fuel rods during ramp and loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. During power ramps, the higher linear heat generation rate may cause fuel-to-clad gap closure that may prevent transport of released fission gases to the plenum. Upon reduction in power the gas then can communicate to the plenum. This phenomenon has been experimentally observed by short power dips during ramp experiments completed at the Risø reactor. At higher burnups it is observed that the UO2 fuel and Zircaloy cladding forms a chemical bond. This bond results in complete closure of the gap. When these high burnup rods are subjected to a LOCA, the bond has implications on both the mechanical response (i.e., ballooning) of the cladding and subsequent fuel relocation and axial gas communication. In the LOCA scenario, gas communication is of interest in two different regimes: 1) pre-rupture communication from the plenum towards the lower pressure ballooning area and 2) the post-rupture depressurization of the plenum to the external system pressure. In both regimes the presence of a fuel-to-cladding bond will impact the rate of depressurization. In this work we present a fuel-to-clad bonding model that is coupled to an existing axial gas communication model framework in the BISON fuel performance code. The effect of considering the bond on fuel performance modeling predictions is presented through comparisons to existing experimental data. Experiments considered include several rods from the Halden IFA-650 test series. An evaluation on a full-length rod that explores the combined effect of plenum size and bonding status on axial gas communication behavior is also presented.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Summary of Analytical Results from Samples Supporting Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) Batch 3 and Modeling Results for Cs Loading on CST

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is currently operating the Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) process to remove 137 Cs from tank waste supernate using an ion exchange process. As part of that process, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) receives and analyzes samples in support of the qualification of each batch to be processed. SRNL recently received supernate samples retrieved from Tank 10H as well as in-tank batch contact samples for characterization in support of qualifying Batch 3 for processing through the TCCR unit. Some results from analysis of those samples have been previously reported. This report documents the remaining analyses of the in-tank batch contact samples as well as the results of ZAM (Zheng, Anthony, Miller) isotherm modeling performed for comparison to the measured results. Results of the additional analyses include analysis of the loading of other radionuclides besides 137 Cs on the crystalline silicotitanate (CST) contained within the in-tank batch contact test samples. Results from those analyses revealed the next highest contributor to the activity on the CST was 90 Sr with an average loading of 2.76E+08 dpm/g CST compared to 3.56E+10 dpm/g CST for the 137Cs. Isotopes of plutonium were also detected on the samples. ZAM modeling was performed using the measured composition of the Tank 10H Batch 3 qualification samples. The modeling predicted a maximum Cs loading approximately 2.2x higher than the measured result. This is a slightly lower ratio (expected/measured) compared to what was observed for the prior TCCR in-tank batch contact testing performed for Batches 1A and 2 where the ZAM results were 2.7-2.8x higher than the measured values.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Patch-Based Convolutional Neural Networks for Multiple Microstructural Features Detection in FIB-SEM Micrographs of Irradiated Nuclear Fuel

Focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM) tomography has increasingly been utilized for acquiring three-dimensional (3D) microstructure features at the sub-micron scale in irradiated nuclear materials. This technique involves sequential ion beam slicing followed by electron beam imaging and compositional mapping using energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). Despite its growing use, several challenges persist. These include the time-intensive nature of data collection of EDS data, difficulties in distinguishing between various microstructures, and issues with image alignment. These challenges currently limit the broader application of FIB-SEM tomography in the field. To overcome these limitations, we propose using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automate microstructure identification in SEM images. Our study introduces a new framework for identifying microstructures in irradiated U-10Zr (wt. %) metallic fuel with limited annotated data. The framework includes the creation of a reliable annotated dataset with paired SEM and ground truth data from EDS maps, the applications of CNNs for microstructure identification, and the validation of model performance. Specifically, we employed the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to align SEM images with corresponding EDS maps and focused ion beam (FIB) tomography SEM data. We evaluate several models, including Patch-based U-Net, Attention U-Net, and Residual U-Net, finding that patch-based U-Net exhibits superior segmentation performance and consistency. This approach reduces reliance on EDS detectors and aids in accelerating nuclear material analysis process, highlighting the potential of advanced deep learning techniques to improve microstructural understanding in nuclear material. This is the first framework to integrate SAM and Patch-based CNN models for semantic segmentation of irradiated nuclear materials, with potential applicability to other tomography datasets.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data, scripts, and figures associated with a manuscript studying impact of climate and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery.

This data package is associated with the publication “Impact of Topography and Climate on Post-fire Vegetation Recovery Across Different Burn Severity and Land Cover Types through Machine Learning” submitted to Remote Sensing of Environment (Zahura et al. 2023). In this research, a machine learning algorithm, random forest (RF), was utilized to examine the impact of climate and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery. We used enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to examine varying burn severity and land cover types. The data package includes the input files for RF model training, outputs from model predictions and analysis, and python scripts to run the model, analyze the results to understand model performance and interpretability, and plot manuscript figures. This data package contains three folders (Data, Scripts, and Figures), a file-level metadata (FLMD) csv, and a data dictionary (dd) csv. Please see Postfire_recovery_flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary (Postfire_recovery_dd.csv) describes the csv column headers. The “Data” folder provides all the inputs and outputs to train the RF model, evaluate performance, and interpret predictions. The “Scripts” folder contains python scripts and jupyter notebooks for model training and result analysis. The “Figures” folder includes the figures used in the manuscript in “.png” and “.jpg” format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPIDARman: System-Level Physics-Informed Detection of Anomalies in Reactor Collected Data Considering Human Errors

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), anomalies arising from sensors or human errors (HEs) can undermine the performance and reliability of plant operations. Anomaly detection models can be employed to detect sensor errors and HEs. Additionally, physics-informed machine learning models can utilize the known physics of the system, as described by mathematical equations, to ensure that sensor values are consistent with physical laws. Hence, we propose SPIDARman: System-level Physics-Informed Detection of Anomalies in Reactor Collected Data Considering Human Errors, a holistic physics-informed anomaly detection approach based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to detect anomalies in both automatically collected sensor data and manually collected surveillance data. Here we test our approach on data collected from a flow loop testbed, showcasing its potential to detect anomalies. Results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than the baseline GAN-based models in detecting sensor and surveillance anomalies, suggesting the potential of physics-informed anomaly detection GAN models in NPPs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status Report on Fast Flux Test Facility Mechanistic Fuel Failure Experiment Analysis with BISON for Post Irradiation Examination Support

The renewed interest in metallic U-Zr nuclear fuel alloy has led to a drive for deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving the phenomena observed under irradiation conditions. The Department of Energy Advanced Fuel Campaign has developed infrastructure to support metallic fuel development, including Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) of legacy Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Mechanistic Fuel Failure (MFF) experiments. The PIE performed on legacy FFTF MFF experiments gives insight on metallic fuel performance and can address the lack of knowledge and scarcity of reliable data identified in several studies over recent years. Unfortunately, PIE efforts can cost significant time and resources which can impede the progress of metallic U-Zr fuel development. Metallic U-Zr fuel performance modeling can be used to inform PIE efforts on regions of interest for relevant investigations and can help understand phenomena observed in PIE. This report demonstrates the current progress of FFTF MFF fuel performance simulations using the BISON fuel performance code and discusses the support provided by simulation to PIE efforts. Progress in temperature, profilometry, fission gas release, plenum pressure, and zirconium redistribution simulation results have been demonstrated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models: Preprint

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to inter-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of said approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating two different clipping correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons will be performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The models can improve accuracy up to 3% in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

clipping↗
DOE OSTI2022

HERA M&S Exercise Problem Description Report

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Framework for Irradiation Experiments (FIDES) program includes the High burnup Experiments for Reactivity initiated Accident (HERA) Joint Experimental Program (JEEP). The HERA project is focused on studying Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel behavior during Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) conditions. The HERA experiment plan includes analytical integral experiments using test specimens tailored to investigate specific conditions of relevance as well as prototypic integral experiments focused on irradiated fuel from prototypic origin. Modeling & simulation (M&S) is a key component of any experiment program, and the HERA JEEP is coordinating a M&S exercise. The purpose of this document is to provide problem descriptions to support the HERA M&S exercise based on fuel performance modeling. The HERA M&S exercise is expected to evolve into multiple efforts in outyears. This document may be revised and expanded to incorporate those evolutions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗