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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and Online Updating of Dynamic Models for Demand Response of an Industrial Air Separation Unit

Demand-response operation of air separation units requires frequent changes in production rate(s), and scheduling calculations must explicitly consider process dynamics to ensure feasibility of the solutions. To this end, scale-bridging models (SBMs) approximate the scheduling-relevant dynamics of a process and its controller in a low-order representation. In contrast to previous works that have employed nonlinear SBMs, this paper proposes linear SBMs, developed using time-series analysis, to facilitate online scheduling computations. Using a year-long industrial dataset, we nd that compact linear SBMs are suitable approximations over typical scheduling horizons, but that their accuracies are unpredictable over time. We introduce a strategy for online updating of the SBMs, based on Kalman ltering schemes for online parameter estimation. The approach greatly improves the accuracy of SBM predictions and will enable the use of linear SBM-based demand-response scheduling in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temporal flow variations interact with spatial physical heterogeneity to impact solute transport in managed river corridors

The interactions between surface water and groundwater in river corridors lead to temporal fluctuations in subsurface water fluxes which have a critical role on solute transport dynamics. Here, we develop a framework to analyze the relative impacts of different temporal frequencies of the flow field in a spatially heterogeneous aquifer on solute transport. Our analysis indicates that the advection-dispersion equation behaves as a low-pass filter by wiping out the effect of high-frequency velocity fluctuations on the first two spatial moments of the solute plume, namely its center of mass and spreading. The concepts discussed in the theoretical analysis are then applied to understand solute transport dynamics at the 300 Area of the Hanford site (USA) adjacent to the Columbia River. We examine the temporal behavior of the solute plume's spatial moments for different temporal frequencies utilizing geostatistical parameters estimated in the 300 Area. Due to the proximity to the Columbia river, groundwater fluxes at the Hanford site are highly dynamic resulting in a large range of characteristic temporal frequencies. Nonetheless, similar to the theoretical analysis, our results show that the effect of high-frequency fluctuations is filtered, with most of the solute transport dynamics being controlled by fluctuations characterized by a large characteristic period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feasibility of DEIM for retrieving the initial field via dimensionality reduction

When parameter estimation is solved in a high-dimensional space, the dimensionality reduction strategy becomes the primary consideration for alleviating the tremendous computational cost. Here, the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) is explored to retrieve the initial condition (IC) by combining the polynomial chaos (PC) based ensemble Kalman filter (i.e. PC-EnKF), where a non-intrusive PC expansion is considered as a surrogate model in place of the forward model in the prediction step of the ensemble Kalman filter, resulting in fewer forward model integrations but with a comparable accuracy as Monte Carlo-based approaches. The DEIM acts as a hyper-reduction tool to provide the low-dimensional input for the high-dimensional initial field, which can be reconstructed using the information on the sparse interpolation grid points that is adaptively obtained through PC-EnKF data assimilation method. Thus an innovative framework to reconstruct the IC is developed. The detailed procedure at each assimilation iteration includes: the determination of the spatial interpolation points, the estimation of the initial values on the interpolation locations using the optimal observations, and the reconstruction of IC in the full space. The current study uses the reconstruction field of initial conditions of the Navier-Stokes equations as an example to illustrate the efficacy of our method. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed algorithm achieves a satisfactory reconstruction for the initial field. The proposed method helps to extend the applicable area of DEIM in solving inverse problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A dynamic kinetic model captures cell-free metabolism for improved butanol production

Cell-free systems are useful tools for prototyping metabolic pathways and optimizing the production of various bioproducts. Mechanistically-based kinetic models are uniquely suited to analyze dynamic experimental data collected from cell-free systems and provide vital qualitative insight. However, to date, dynamic kinetic models have not been applied with rigorous biological constraints or trained on adequate experimental data to the degree that they would give high confidence in predictions and broadly demonstrate the potential for widespread use of such kinetic models. In this work, we construct a large-scale dynamic model of cell-free metabolism with the goal of understanding and optimizing butanol production in a cell-free system. Using a combination of parameterization methods, the resultant model captures experimental metabolite measurements across two experimental conditions for nine metabolites at timepoints between 0 and 24 hours. Here, we present analysis of the model predictions, provide recommendations for butanol optimization, and identify the aldehyde/alcohol dehydrogenase as the primary bottleneck in butanol production. Sensitivity analysis further reveals the extent to which various parameters are constrained, and our approach for probing valid parameter ranges can be applied to other modeling efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating proteome allocation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae phenotypes with resource balance analysis

Saccharomyces cerevisiae is an important model organism and a workhorse in bioproduction. Here, we reconstructed a compact and tractable genome-scale resource balance analysis (RBA) model (i.e., named scRBA) to analyze metabolic fluxes and proteome allocation in a computationally efficient manner. Resource capacity models such as scRBA provide the quantitative means to identify bottlenecks in biosynthetic pathways due to enzyme, compartment size, and/or ribosome availability limitations. ATP maintenance rate and in vivo apparent turnover numbers (k app ) were regressed from metabolic flux and protein concentration data to capture observed physiological growth yield and proteome efficiency and allocation, respectively. Estimated parameter values were found to vary with oxygen and nutrient availability. Altogether, this work (i) provides condition-specific model parameters to recapitulate phenotypes corresponding to different extracellular environments, (ii) alludes to the enhancing effect of substrate channeling and post-translational activation on in vivo enzyme efficiency in glycolysis and electron transport chain, and (iii) reveals that the Crabtree effect is underpinned by specific limitations in mitochondrial proteome capacity and secondarily ribosome availability rather than overall proteome capacity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining Computational Modeling with Reaction Kinetics Experiments for Elucidating the In Situ Nature of the Active Site in Catalysis

Microkinetic modeling based on density functional theory (DFT) derived energetics is important for addressing fundamental questions in catalysis. The quantitative fidelity of microkinetic models (MKMs), however, is often insufficient to conclusively infer the mechanistic details of a specific catalytic system. Here, this can be attributed to a number of factors such as an incorrect model of the active site for which DFT calculations are performed, deficiencies in the hypothesized reaction mechanism, inadequate consideration of the surface environment under reaction conditions, and intrinsic errors in the DFT exchange-correlation functional. Despite these limitations, we aim at developing a rigorous understanding of the reaction mechanism and of the nature of the active site for heterogeneous catalytic chemistries under reaction conditions. By achieving parity between experimental and modeling outcomes through robust parameter estimation and by ensuring coverage-consistency between DFT calculations and MKM predictions, it is possible to systematically refine the mechanistic model and, thereby, our understanding of the catalytic active site in situ.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Optimization of a Rotating Packed Bed Contactor with a Tetraamine-Appended Metal−Organic Framework for CO 2 Capture

A potential contactor technology for sorbent-based CO 2 capture is the rotating packed bed that contains separate sections for continuous adsorption and desorption. A heat exchanger can be embedded to remove heat in the adsorption section and add heat in the desorption section. In this work, we develop a two-dimensional (2D) model of a rotating packed bed for use in CO 2 capture applications. Mass and energy balances for the model are developed based on a Ljungström-type air preheater, which accounts for the counter-current axial flow of gas phases in separate sections of the bed and the rotation of a solid sorbent, which cycles between adsorption and desorption sections. The sorbent used for this analysis is the tetraamine-appended metal−organic framework Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3−4− 3), chosen for its stability and affinity for CO 2 at low partial pressures, such as those from a natural gas power plant source. An optimization problem is solved that considers the trade-off between maximizing the productivity of the bed and minimizing energy consumption. Maximum productivity and minimum energy are found to be 8.53 kg/h/m 3 and 3.84 MJ/kg, respectively, when these objectives are optimized independently. It is observed that the flue gas pressure and bed rotational speed are the desired operating variables to vary for model-based design of experiments to reduce uncertainty in parameter estimation, as these two variables yielded the most information content based on the Fisher information matrix.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrically Powered High-Salinity Brine Separation Using Dimethyl Ether

Dewatering highly saline aqueous streams, from mining and geothermal leachates to industrial wastewater, is essential for effective resource recovery and safe disposal. Membraneless water extraction (MWE) uses a low-polarity solvent to separate water from concentrated aqueous solutions. In this study, we design a new MWE that uses dimethyl ether (DME) to selectively extract water from high-salinity brines, leveraging the volatility of DME to achieve rapid solvent recovery. By separating water and dissolved salts at a liquid–liquid interface, MWE minimizes the deleterious effects of scaling on vulnerable membrane and heat exchanger surfaces, reducing the need for extensive pretreatment and expensive materials. We begin by developing a computational framework for a multistage counterflow liquid–liquid contactor, which extracts water into DME, coupled with a multistage solvent regenerator that uses vapor compression to efficiently separate the desalinated water from the DME extractant. Excess Gibbs free energy and equation of state frameworks are used to model fluid phase equilibria in water–DME–sodium chloride (NaCl) mixtures, with interaction parameters estimated from experimental data. Incorporating equilibrium calculations into a system-scale computational model, we examine the performance of MWE using DME for the first time. Our analysis demonstrates that MWE can concentrate seawater desalination brine (>1.0 mol NaCl kg –1 ) to zero-liquid discharge salinities, with an energy consumption of under 50 kW h per m 3 of water extracted with a solvent recovery ratio greater than 99.9%. We highlight the importance of staging the vapor compression process to simultaneously minimize energy consumption while enabling brine concentration and product water solvent contamination. Finally, the thermodynamic framework developed here allows for the robust evaluation of new MWE solvents and systems for critical brine concentration and fractional precipitation applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

NEXTorch: A Design and Bayesian Optimization Toolkit for Chemical Sciences and Engineering

Automation and optimization of chemical systems require well-informed decisions on what experiments to run to reduce time, materials, and/or computations. Data-driven active learning algorithms have emerged as valuable tools to solve such tasks. Bayesian optimization, a sequential global optimization approach, is a popular active-learning framework. Past studies have demonstrated its efficiency in solving chemistry and engineering problems. Here we introduce NEXTorch, a library in Python/PyTorch, to facilitate laboratory or computational design using Bayesian optimization. NEXTorch offers fast predictive modeling, flexible optimization loops, visualization capabilities, easy interfacing with legacy software, and multiple types of parameters and data type conversions. It provides GPU acceleration, parallelization, and state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization algorithms and supports both automated an d human-in-the-loop optimization. The comprehensive online documentation introduces Bayesian optimization theory and several examples from catalyst synthesis, reaction condition optimization, parameter estimation, and reactor geometry optimization. NEXTorch is open-source and available on GitHub

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Multiple Filter Based Neural Network Approach to the Extrapolation of Adsorption Energies on Metal Surfaces for Catalysis Applications

Computational catalyst discovery involves the development of microkinetic reactor models based on estimated parameters determined from density functional theory (DFT). For complex surface chemistries, the number of reaction intermediates can be very large, and the cost of calculating the adsorption energies by DFT for all surface intermediates even for one active site model can become prohibitive. In this paper, we have identified appropriate descriptors and machine learning models that can be used to predict a significant part of these adsorption energies given data on the rest of them. Furthermore, our investigations also included the case when the species data used to train the predictive model are of different size relative to the species the model tries to predict—this is an extrapolation in the data space which is typically difficult with regular machine learning models. Due to the relative size of the available data sets, we have attempted to extrapolate from the larger species to the smaller ones in the current work. Here, we have developed a neural network based predictive model that combines an established additive atomic contribution based model with the concepts of a convolutional neural network that, when extrapolating, achieves a statistically significant improvement over the previous models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatic Generation of Chemical Mechanisms for Electrochemical Systems: Solid Electrolyte Interphase Formation in Lithium Batteries

Electrolytes in many lithium ion batteries decompose at the low potentials near the anode. The decomposition products form a layer termed the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). The composition and growth of the SEI layer significantly affect both the capacity fade and safety of lithium ion batteries. However, SEI formation and growth kinetics are not well understood. In this work, we present an extension of the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) software to automatically generate mechanisms for SEI formation. We extend RMG’s solvation correction framework to account for kinetic solvent effects and demonstrate the accuracy of our technique. We calculate thermochemical parameters for 252 species and rate coefficients for 69 reactions, most with associated solvation corrections. This and additional quantum chemistry data are used to extend RMG’s thermodynamic group additivity and solute parameter estimation schemes to handle lithiated species and add 14 new reaction families to RMG. RMG is additionally extended to simulate electrocatalytic systems. Lastly, we demonstrate RMG on the decomposition of acetonitrile and ethylene carbonate near a battery anode. Furthermore, while this framework does not yet resolve individual ions, as appropriate thermochemistry estimators are not available, and thus, cannot yet resolve more complex electrochemical pathways, RMG is able to generate reasonable pathways for SEI formation that match literature pathways and products. In particular, RMG identifies a new important reaction pathway that is not present in literature.

Chemical reactions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical Characterization of Degradation Modes of High-Voltage Li x Ni 0.33 Mn 0.33 Co 0.33 O 2 Electrodes

While deeply charged high-voltage cathodes can improve battery energy density, understanding and preventing any accelerated cell degradation is crucial to practical success. Here, to analyze the degradation of LiNi x Mn y Co 1–x–y O 2 (NMC) type material charged to 4.3 and 4.5 V, a physics-based model is applied to cycling data to obtain parameter estimates indicative of degradation modes, which are validated by simple electrochemical measurements and further interpreted by materials characterization. Growth rates of interfacial impedance and active material loss are greater at 4.5 V, as might be expected. However, when charged to 4.5 V, degradation rates are initially lower at a cycling C-rate of 1.0 C than at 0.5 C. Once degradation mode changes are quantified, simulations evaluate the contribution of individual degradation mode to performance losses and provide estimates of the energy-power correlation (Ragone plots) of cells after cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic Insights for Plasma-Catalytic CO 2 Reduction over TiO 2 in a Dielectric Barrier Discharge Reactor

Reaction kinetics experiments coupled with phenomenological kinetic modeling and parameter estimation are used to elicit insights into the mechanism and active sites for the plasma-catalytic dissociation of CO 2 on TiO 2 . Experimental and model insights showed that gas-phase reactions contribute at least two-thirds of the overall product formation at explored conditions; weak temperature dependence, strong sensitivity to specific energy input (SEI), apparent first order in CO 2 , and positive influence of cofed argon (Ar) and oxygen (O 2 ) for the gas-phase contributions all suggest that expected plasma reaction steps such as electron-impact and high-energy collisions are the dominant modes for CO 2 dissociation. The Arrhenius-like expression for gas contributions resulted in a preexponential of 4.40 × 10 –3 s –1 , an E SEI,g of 7.90 × 10 –4 mol/kJ, and an E a,g of 1.00 × 10 –3 J/mol. For surface contributions, the small apparent barrier of 16.3 kJ/mol, relatively weaker dependence on SEI, first-order dependence on CO 2 , and insensitivity to cofed Ar and O 2 all point to CO 2 dissociation on TiO 2 surface facets without vacancies and aided by plasma (leading to vibrationally excited CO 2 and/or a reactive surface with significant surface charge accumulation). The Arrhenius-like expression resulted in a preexponential of 7.81 × 10 –2 s –1 , an E SEI,s of 1.90 × 10 –3 mol/kJ, and an E a,s of 1.63 × 10 4 J/mol. The derived kinetic model further enabled a systematic evaluation of the effect of inputs (plasma power, flow rate, CO 2 inlet concentration, and temperature) to identify process trends and optimal operating conditions.

catalyst↗