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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Wall-Modeled Lattice Boltzmann and Navier-Stokes Approaches for Separated Flows

Lattice Boltzmann (LB) and hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes/large eddy simulation (RANS/LES) methods within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are applied to NASA's Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) standard test cases for separated flows. A detailed comparison between the performance and accuracy of the two emerging numerical methodologies for turbulence resolving simulations, i.e. the LB and hybrid RANS/LES methods will be presented. This contribution addresses the RCA technical challenge to identify and down-select critical turbulence, transition, and numerical method technologies for 40% reduction in predictive error for standard turbulence separated flow test cases. Results for the 2D NASA wall-mounted hump and the axisymmetric transonic bump including time-averaged pressure coefficient, skin friction, and velocity pro les, as well as resolved and modeled Reynolds stresses for both numerical approaches will be presented and differences between LB and hybrid RANS/LES will be discussed.

Lattice Boltzmann↗
NASA NTRS2019

DSCOVR-EPIC MAIAC AOD - A Proxy for Understanding Aerosol Diurnal Patterns from Space

The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft was launched on 11 February 2015 and in June 2015 achieved its orbit at the first Lagrange point (L1), 1.5 million km from Earth toward the sun. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard DSCOVR views the entire sunlit Earth from sunrise to sunset, every 1-2 hours, at scattering angles between 168.5° and 175.5° with 10 narrowband filters in the range of 317-779 nm. NASA Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, originally developed for MODIS, has been applied to EPIC data with an Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) product at 440nm with a 10km spatial resolution. This high temporal resolution product is a unique dataset for investigating diurnal patterns in aerosols from space. Our work analyzed the capability of the satellite-borne data to capture the aerosol diurnal variation by associating it with AERONET AOD at 440nm data over the contiguous US. We validated the DSCOVR MAIAC AOD data over 100 AERONET stations during 2015-2018, and examined the contribution of the surface reflectance and relevant acquisition angles, derived by the MAIAC algorithm, to the predicted error. We used over 180,000 hourly DSCOVR-EPIC MAIAC AOD observations with collocated with AERONET AOD observations averaged over +-30 minutes from the satellite overpass time. The AERONET and DSCOVR AOD temporal patterns show that the diurnal variation is different across US AERONET sites, with higher diurnal variation in the DSCOVR dataset in general.

Sorek-Hamer, Meytar↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analysis of Airport Ground Delay Program Decisions Using Data Mining Techniques

Air traffic service providers have to make decisions regarding changes to air traffic flow in the event of major weather disturbances and traffic congestions to maintain safety of the system. The behavior of the air traffic management system will be more predictable if consistent decisions are made under similar traffic and weather conditions. Consistency of deciding on control action depends on the weather and traffic conditions as well as accuracy in predicting these conditions. Weather parameters (defined in terms of forecast and actual weather and traffic conditions) on different days can be used to categorize days into days with little decision consistency, days with moderate decision consistency and days with high decision consistency. Four years of traffic, weather and ground delay program decisions data at major airports in the United States are used in the analysis. This paper examines performance of different data mining methods in the three regions of decision consistency. Not surprisingly, data mining methods have the best performance in the region of most decision consistency and have the poorest performance in the region of little decision consistency. In applications where data mining methods have differing performance in differing regions, it would be more useful to characterize the region specific performance instead of characterizing performance by a single parameter. Finally, the results show no significant variation in the performance of different data mining methods for this particular problem. The fact that different mining methods show no significant variation also provides further confidence in the results of data mining methods. Work in this abstract discusses initial results. This paper describes the results in terms of both forecast and actual environmental conditions and discusses how prediction errors impact decision consistency.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS2006

Conflict Detection Using Variable Four-Dimensional Uncertainty Bounds to Control Missed Alerts

Decision-support tools for maintaining pairwise aircraft separation rely on conflict detection to alert the operator when the predicted trajectories of aircraft will result in a loss of separation. But aircraft frequently do not follow their predicted trajectories exactly. This can cause missed alerts and the failure of strategic separation procedures. We present a technique for modeling a bounded region of uncertainty around a four-dimensional predicted trajectory and an algorithm for detecting conflicts between trajectories modeled in this way that avoids missed alerts as long as the aircraft remain within the specified regions of uncertainty. In addition, we present an algorithm for detecting the intrusion of a trajectory modeled in this way into an area hazard modeled as a polygonal region. The size of the region of uncertainty can vary along the trajectory continually and independently in the along-path, cross-track, and vertical dimensions, providing an opportunity to reduce the likelihood of false alerts while protecting against typical prediction errors. The algorithm has been implemented in the Autonomous Operations Planner, a NASA Langley prototype decision support tool for airborne self-separation.

Karr, David A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Steps in Developing Rapid Aero Modeling Technology

The Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) approach is a method to efficiently and automatically obtain aerodynamic models during testing, significantly saving time and resources. Motivation for this technology results from demand for experimental efficiency and model fidelity that has increased with growing aircraft complexity and aerodynamic nonlinearities. These issues are typical in the responses presented by a class of vehicles categorized as Urban Air Mobility aircraft where many features from both airplane and rotorcraft are present. For UAM configurations, with typically many more factors than conventional aircraft, traditional test methods can lead to increased costs and missed interactions. RAM guides the test to obtain high-fidelity, statistically rigorous aircraft models, and the approach is applicable to computational, ground, or flight-test experiments. It combines concepts from Design of Experiment theory and Aircraft System Identification theory that allow the user the freedom to choose, in advance of the test, a specific level of fidelity typically, in terms of prediction error. RAM only collects data required to meet the user-specified fidelity and fidelity is only limited by the facility and test article capabilities. An initial wind tunnel test to support development of RAM was conducted to assess potential metrics, algorithms, and procedures. This paper presents results from initial tests for the development of RAM technology and highlights some of the unique features of RAM applied toa conventional configuration during a ground-based, static, wind-tunnel test.

Patrick C Murphy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Rapid Aero Modeling for Urban Air Mobility Aircraft in Wind-Tunnel Tests

Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) applied to wind tunnel testing, RAM-T, is an approach to efficiently and automatically obtain aerodynamic models during testing. The approach saves time and resources by responding to the demand for experimental efficiency and model fidelity. Motivation for this demand is more acute when investigating a class of vehicles categorized as Urban Air Mobility (UAM) aircraft where many features from both aircraft and rotorcraft are present. RAM-T provides a feedback loop around the test facility to guide the test toward high-fidelity, statistically rigorous aircraft models. The general RAM approach is applicable to computational or physical experiments. It combines concepts from design of experiment theory and aircraft system identification theory that allow the user the freedom to choose, in advance of the test, a specific level of fidelity in terms of prediction error. RAM only collects data required to meet the user-specified fidelity and fidelity is only limited by the facility and test article capabilities. This paper presents results from tests conducted for development of an automated RAM-T technology. The results highlight some of the unique features of RAM applied to eVTOL configurations.

Aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS2022

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management, operational intent, confli↗
NASA NTRS2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Are the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is the continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a methodology of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). This methodology is not particularly helpful in the space industry where there is a lack of failure data, but is more helpful in industries that see a lot of component repairs and improvements, such as in the aircraft or automotive industries. The previous paper demonstrated how the typical approach of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the future. It is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This paper uses simulation to solve for the model of the world, and the results compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as being exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes are removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing.

Smith, Curtis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Prediction Modeling Methodologies for Aeroacoustic Characterization of Hovering sUAS Rotors

This work compared artificial neural network and multivariate orthogonal function modeling methodologies for the prediction and characterization of isolated hovering sUAS rotor aerodynamics and aeroacoustics. Design of Experiments was used to create input feature spaces over 9 input features: the number of rotor blades, rotor size, rotor speed, the amount of blade twist, blade taper ratio, tip chord length, collective pitch, airfoil camber, and airfoil thickness. CAMRAD~II and AARON were executed at the points defined by the input feature space to predict aerodynamic and aeroacoustic quantities. These predicted aerodynamic and aeroacoustic data were then used to generate artificial neural networks and polynomial response surface models. The two prediction model methodologies were evaluated over test data previously unseen by the models, which showed good prediction capabilities for both model types, with slightly lower prediction error for the artificial neural networks. A characterization study was performed, which showed that input features correspondent to the spanwise sectional blade lift and drag were the most significant factors to the aerodynamic thrust and power, respectively. It was also shown that the aeroacoustic quantities were highly dependent on variations in rotor speed and size, which affect the Doppler factor for tonal noise and the spanwise Reynolds number for broadband noise.

Christopher S Thurman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Copula-based Method to Generate Consistent Surface Pressures Under Uncertainty

This paper establishes a method to create surface pressure databases that allow for uncertainty quantification. Aerodynamic databases are critical products for launch vehicles and other aeronautical systems, and surface pressure databases are one such database that constains large quantities of data. The focus of this work is the relationship between the integrated force and moment data base and the surface pressure database. In particular, the work attempts to provide a method that maintains consistency between these two databases when accounting for uncertainty. The integrated force and moment database and surface pressure databases are constructed from CFD data which is high-density but low-trust. However, the force and moment database will often also include data from high-trust but low-density sources such as from wind tunnel experiments. This means that the quantified uncertainty of the force and moment database is higher quality as it includes this high fidelity wind tunnel data. This motivates the idea to use the force and moment database uncertainty when constructing the surface pressure database uncertainty. The method utilizes the statistical idea of a copula in order to generate surface pressures that match with uncertain integrated force and moment distributions as well as being consistent with known CFD data. This statistical consistency is quantified by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy two-sample test. The predictive error of the method is also approximated using leave-one-out error estimation and the good overall performance of the method is presented using probability boxes in a simulated uncertainty scenario.

SLS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Is the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is a continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a discussion of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). The paper demonstrated how the typical method of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the real world. Instead of relying on textbook methods, it is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This work uses a simulation to solve for the model of the world, and is compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes were removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing, and comparisons will be shown showing which method is more accurate and under what conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Tools Set for Natural Gas Fuel Cell System Design

This study is focusing on leveraging the system design tools set for the next-generation solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) based natural gas fuel cell (NGFC) system. Conventionally, system design and optimization of NGFC systems rely heavily on traditional reduced order model (ROM) techniques and designers’ experience level. For overcoming the technical barriers of system design, multiple multi-physics models and machine learning (ML) tools have been utilized to automate the conceptual design process and enhance the reliability of solutions for the NGFC system. The proposed tools set includes a physics-informed ML tool for automated ROM construction that leverages advances in deep neural networks to significantly reduce ROM prediction error for the NGFC power island compared to traditional approaches. The constructed physics-informed ML ROM can be used in system design, and optimization tools set Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Process Systems Engineering (PSE) framework. The tools set also provides a user-friendly graphic user interface built within Jupyter Notebooks, and the complete tools set is open-source public available.

Wang, Dewei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Convolutional Neural Network Classifier for Data Starved Spectra - 20199

The Institute for Clean Energy Technology (ICET) at Mississippi State University is exploring the utility of machine learning in augmenting its mobile radiation surveying platforms, which are currently being developed as means to survey depleted uranium contaminated areas in support of remediation and decommissioning efforts. Mobile survey platforms provide a means to efficiently scan large areas of interest while reducing human exposure to radiation and other hazards. The survey platforms can also be used for scanning for any gamma emitting isotope in addition to depleted uranium. The spectral data that the platforms collect may be data starved with relatively low counts and poorly defined spectral features depending on the speed of the platforms and scintillation detector selection. Such data-starved spectra are difficult to use for isotope identification, requiring advanced knowledge of the possible radionuclides that could be present and environmental factors that could attenuate signals or introduce background noise. These factors in combination with the volume of survey data increases the time it takes to perform analysis of survey data when the source type is unknown. There are a number of algorithms in the field of machine learning that can be used to classify data that would be challenging and time-consuming for a human to identify. Supervised machine learning algorithms train models based on extensive amounts of human-labeled training data. Once sufficiently trained, these models can be used to quickly make high-fidelity predictions on new data. Convolutional neural networks are machine learning algorithms that excel in learning representations of 'shapes'. They do this by taking numerical input data and convolving them with spatial feature detectors referred to as filters. These filters are incrementally adjusted to reduce the prediction error on the data during the backpropagation step of training. Discussed in this paper is the development of a convolutional neural network classifier (CNNC) that can utilize spectral survey data for source discrimination and isotope identification. Bench-top laboratory experiments data using LaBr{sub 3}(Ce) scintillation detectors were used to train and evaluate the performance of the developed CNNC. The CNNC is capable of discriminating a variety of gamma emitting source types, differentiating different forms of uranium (depleted vs. natural), and estimating the amount of uranium for a known geometry. The discussed CNNC may be useful in scenarios where survey systems are deployed in situations where hazardous radioactive material maybe present, but the type is unknown. When used in remediation applications the CNNC can be used to screen-out false positives, helping reduce remediation costs. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Learning Approach to Wireless Outdoor Heatmap Construction using Deep Gaussian Process

We present a novel Bayesian learning approach to outdoor radio heatmap construction utilizing deep Gaussian process (GP). The proposed approach employs a two-layer hierarchy which consists of two cascaded Gaussian processes that are capable of modeling more complex input-output relations than standard single-layer Gaussian processes. Since deriving the exact model likelihood is challenging, a lower bound is optimized instead so that gradient descent-based methods can be performed to find out the optimal model parameters. Typically, inducing points are used in GPs to facilitate low-rank approximation of covariance (kernel) matrices for computation speedup. However, the inaccuracy induced by inducing points can accumulate when stacking multiple layers of GP which may hinder the performance of deep GP. Moreover, since inducing points need to be learned, having them at all layers of deep GP also incurs computational burden. To overcome the above challenges, in contrast to the canonical deep GP model, we use a modified architecture where a full standard GP resides in the first layer and inducing points are only introduced for the second layer. This modified architecture strikes a balance between model accuracy and training complexity. In the proposed model, the noise parameter of the first GP layer is also eliminated to improve the training efficiency as the noise parameter at the output of the second layer suffices to model the uncertainty in the output. The proposed approach is evaluated on real-world datasets, in the form of location-Received Signal Strength (RSS) pairs, collected from the Platform for Open Wireless Data-driven Experimental Research (POWDER) located at the campus of the University of Utah. Experiment results show that the proposed approach can achieve smaller prediction errors on various training and testing data configurations than DNN-based and GP-based methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2007

Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

McKinley, David P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗