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T-wave alternans and QT dispersion were compared as predictors of the outcome of electrophysiologic study and arrhythmia-free survival in patients undergoing electrophysiologic evaluation. T-wave alternans was a highly significant predictor of these 2 outcome variables, whereas QT dispersion was not.
Muscle strength has been shown to predict bone mineral density (BMD) in women. We examined this relationship in 50 healthy men who ranged in age from 28 to 51 years (average 38.3 years). BMD of the lumbar spine, proximal femur, whole body, and tibia were measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (Hologic QDR 1000W). Dynamic strength using one repetition maximum was assessed for the biceps, quadriceps, and back extensors and for the hip abductors, adductors, and flexors. Isometric grip strength was measured by dynamometry. Daily walking mileage was assessed by 9 week stepmeter records and kinematic analysis of video filming. Subjects were designated as exercisers and nonexercisers. Exercisers participated in recreational exercise at least two times each week. The results demonstrated that BMD at all sites correlated with back and biceps strength (p < 0.01 to p = 0.0001). Body weight correlated with tibia and whole-body BMD (p < 0.001); age negatively correlated with Ward's triangle BMD (p < 0.01). In stepwise multiple regressions, back strength was the only independent predictor of spine and femoral neck density (R2 = 0.27). Further, back strength was the most robust predictor of BMD at the trochanter, Ward's triangle, whole body, and tibia, although biceps strength, age, body weight, and leg strength contributed significantly to BMD at these skeletal sites, accounting for 35-52% of the variance in BMD. Exercisers and nonexercisers were similar for walking (3.97 versus 3.94 miles/day), age (37.8 versus 38.5) years, and weight (80.0 versus 77.7 kg). However, BMD and muscle strength were significantly greater in exercises than in nonexercisers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).
To determine whether measurement of hip and spine bone mass by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) predicts fractures in women and to compare the predictive value of DEXA with that of single-photon absorptiometry (SPA) of appendicular sites, we prospectively studied 8134 nonblack women age 65 years and older who had both DEXA and SPA measurements of bone mass. A total of 208 nonspine fractures, including 37 wrist fractures, occurred during the follow-up period, which averaged 0.7 years. The risk of fracture was inversely related to bone density at all measurement sites. After adjusting for age, the relative risks per decrease of 1 standard deviation in bone density for the occurrence of any fracture was 1.40 for measurement at the proximal femur (95% confidence interval 1.20-1.63) and 1.35 (1.15-1.58) for measurement at the spine. Results were similar for all regions of the proximal femur as well as SPA measurements at the calcaneus, distal radius, and proximal radius. None of these measurements was a significantly better predictor of fractures than the others. Furthermore, measurement of the distal radius was not a better predictor of wrist fracture (relative risk 1.64: 95% CI 1.13-2.37) than other sites, such as the lumbar spine (RR 1.56; CI 1.07-2.26), the femoral neck (RR 1.65; CI 1.12-2.41), or the calcaneus (RR 1.83; CI 1.26-2.64). We conclude that the inverse relationship between bone mass and risk of fracture in older women is similar for absorptiometric measurements made at the hip, spine, and appendicular sites.
Patients with familial dysautonomia (FD) have an increased risk of sudden death, but sensitive and specific predictors of sudden death in FD are lacking. Methods. We recorded 10-min resting high-fidelity 12-lead ECGs in 14 FD patients and in 14 age/gender-matched healthy subjects and studied 25+ different heart rate variability (HRV) indices for their ability to predict sudden death in the FD patients. Indices studied included those from 4 "nonlinear" HRV techniques (detrended fluctuation analysis, approximate entropy, correlation dimension, and PoincarC analyses). The predictive value of PR, QRS, QTc and JTc intervals, QT dispersion (QTd), beat-to-beat QT and PR interval variability indices (QTVI and PRVI) and 12- lead high frequency QRS ECG (150-250 Hz) were also studied. FD patients and controls (C) differed (Pless than 0.0l) with respect to 20+ of the HRV indices (FD less than C) and with respect to QTVI and PRVI (FDBC) and HF QRS- related root mean squared voltages (FDBC) and reduced amplitude zone counts (FD less than C). They differed less with respect to PR intervals (FD less than C) and JTc intervals (FD greater than C) (P less than 0.05 for both) and did not differ at all with respect to QRS and QTc intervals and to QTd. Within 12 months after study, 2 of the 14 patients succumbed to sudden cardiac arrest. The best predictor of sudden death was the degree of diminution in HRV vagal-cardiac (parasympathetic) parameters such as RMSSD, the SDl of Poincare plots, and HF spectral power. Excluding the two FD patients who had resting tachycardia (HR greater than 100, which confounds traditional HRV analyses), the following criteria were independently 100% sensitive and 100% specific for predicting sudden death in the remaining 12 FD patients during spontaneous breathing: RMSSD less than 13 ms and/or PoincarC SD1 less than 9 ms. In FD patients without supine tachycardia, the degree of diminution in parasympathetic HRV parameters (by high-fidelity ECG) predicts incipient death.
We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We have devised improved generalized measures of active-region nonpotentiality that apply to active regions of any degree of magnetic complexity, rather than being limited to bipolar active regions as our initial measures were. From a set of approx.50 active-regions, we have found that measures of total nonpotentiality have a 75-80% success rate n predicting whether an active region will produce a CME in 2 days after the magnetogram. This makes measures of total nonpotentiality a better predictor than either active-region size, or active region twist (size-normalized nonpotentiality), which have a approx.65% success rates. We have also found that we can measure from the line-of-sight magnetograms an active region's total nonpotentiality and the size, which allows use to use MDI to evaluate these quantities for 4-5 consecutive days for each active region, and to investigate if there is some combination of size and total nonpotentiality that have a stronger predictive power than does total nonpotentiality. This work was funded by NASA through its LWS TR&T Program and its Solar and Heliospheric Physics SR&T Program, and by NSF through its Solar Terrestrial Research and SHINE programs.
Risk analysis and integrated verification and validation are two important elements in a plan for ensuring the safety of critical software systems. We describe an approach we are currently developing for integrating risk analysis, and metrics analysis, and propose a fault predictor that would integrate the results of these activities. Practical difficulties associated with our approach are also discussed, as are limitations of the proposed predictor. We conclude with a discussion of what as been learned to date, and with suggestions for future work.
We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)
The Aeroflightdynamics Directorate (AMRDEC) conducted a simulation to examine the performance of the Comanche Contact Analog world-referenced symbology displayed on the Comanche HIDSS when compared with a compressed symbology design similar to that specified by the former MIL-STD 1295. Six experimental test pilots flew one modified ADS-33 maneuver (hover turn, bob-up), an unusual attitude recovery, and two terrain flight tactical tasks in the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS). Analysis of the pilot objective performance data and subjective data showed the following results. Objective test results showed that 1295 symbology yielded more rapid maneuvering in the hover turn bob-up than Contact Analog symbology. The average margin of difference in the time to complete the maneuver was approximately two seconds, which was statistically significant. There were no significant differences measured between symbology sets with respect to altitude or position performance measures for all other maneuvers. The NOE target ID task data showed improved accuracy in determining heading to target when using Contact Analog over MIL-STD-1295. Subjective test results, including handling qualities ratings (HQRs) and NASA-TLX workload ratings, showed small but consistent advantages of 1295 symbology over Contact Analog for most parameters. For the bob-up maneuver, 1295 symbology handling qualities were rated Desired for lateral position error and time to complete whereas Contact Analog was rated adequate. The average HQRs for all other maneuvers were rated the same for both symbology sets. Pilot comments and the results of an online questionnaire more strongly favored 1295 over Contact Analog. Repeated comments from all six pilots led to a focus on design issues with six Contact Analog symbols. Those symbols were the heading tape, horizon line, radar altitude six-second predictor, the position of the torque symbol, the absence of a hover position cue, and the widespread positioning of the symbology to the outer edges of the display field-of-view. Pilots rated the present design of three of the six symbols as having safety-of-flight implications. Those symbols were the heading tape, horizon line, and six-second predictor. To summarize, test results showed no objective data that would warrant restricting experimental test pilots from flying constrained tasks. Small but consistent advantages were recorded for the MILSTD-1295 symbology design when executing ADS-33 constrained tasks. No general performance differences were recorded for the operational maneuvers (NOE, contour flight modes) except for the azimuth-to-target task, which favored the Contact Analog heading tape design. There were consistent and strong pilot comments supporting the MIL-STD-1295 design over Contact Analog in both this current simulation and in Comanche Sim I. Three Contact Analog symbols warrant modification and further evaluation to mitigate safety-of-flight implications noted by participating test pilots. A plan for symbology redesign and testing was developed. However, the Comanche program was cancelled by Department of Army in February 2004.
Treadmill exercise is commonly used for aerobic and anaerobic conditioning. During non-motorized treadmill exercise, the subject must provide the power necessary to drive the treadmill belt. The purpose of this study was to determine what factors affected the time to fatigue on a pair of non-motorized treadmills. Twenty subjects (10 males/10 females) attempted to complete five minutes of locomotion during separate trials at 3.22, 4.83, 6.44, 8.05, 9.66, and 11.27 km (raised dot) h(sup -1). Total exercise time (less than or equal to 5 min) was recorded. Exercise time was converted to the amount of 15 second intervals completed. Peak oxygen uptake (VO2) was measured using a graded exercise test on a standard treadmill, and anthropometric measures were collected from each subject before entering into the study. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine significant predictive factors in a multivariate analysis. Non-motorized treadmill speed and absolute peak VO2 were found to be significant predictors of exercise time, but there was no effect of anthropometric characteristics. Gender was found to be a predictor of treadmill time, but this was likely due to a higher peak VO2 in males than in females. These results were not affected by the type of treadmill tested in this study. Coaches and therapists should consider the cardiovascular fitness of an athlete or client when prescribing target speed since these factors are related to the total exercise time than can be achieved on a non-motorized treadmill.
This talk is about optimal linear prediction of processes with stationary dth increments, which serve as a class of models for random clock disturbances. The predictor is obtained by orthogonal projection on the affine space of estimators whose errors are invariant to additive polynomials of degree < d. The projection conditions give a system of linear equations thatcan be solved straightforwardly for the regression coefficients. If the data are equally spaced, then the predictor can be obtained by an extension of Levinson's algorithm.
Various 12-lead ECG criteria have been established to detect right ventricular hypertrophy as a marker of pulmonary hypertension (PH). While some criteria offer good specificity they lack sensitivity because of a low prevalence of positive findings in the PH population. We hypothesized that three-dimensional equivalent dipole (ED) model could serve as a better detection tool of PH. We enrolled: 1) 17 patients (12 female, 5 male, mean age 57 years, range 19-79 years) with echocardiographically detected PH (systolic pulmonary arterial pressure greater than 35 mmHg) and no significant left ventricular disease; and 2) 19 healthy controls (7 female, 12 male, mean age 44, range 31-53 years) with no known heart disease. In each subject we recorded a 5-minute high-resolution 12-lead conventional ECG and constructed principal signals using singular value decomposition. Assuming a standard thorax dimension of an adult person with homogenous and isotropic distribution of thorax conductance, we determined moving equivalent dipoles (ED), characterized by the 3D location in the thorax, dipolar strength and the spatial orientation, in time intervals of 5 ms. We used the sum of all ED vectors in the second half of the QRS complex to derive the amplitude of the right-sided ED vector (RV), if the orientation of ED was to the right side of the thorax, and in the first half the QRS to derive the amplitude of the left-sided vector (LV), if the orientation was leftward. Finally, the parameter RV/LV ratio was determined over an average of 256 complexes. The groups differed in age and gender to some extent. There was a non-significant trend toward higher RV in patients with PH (438 units 284) than in controls (280 plus or minus 140) (p = 0.066) but the overlap was such that RV alone was not a good predictor of PH. On the other hand, the RV/LV ratio was a better predictor of PH, with 11/17 (64.7%) of PH patients but only in 1/19 (5.3%) control subjects having RV/LV ratio greater than or equal to 0.70 (p less than 0.001). The use of ED for evaluating PH shows good specificity at a reasonable sensitivity. The results are limited due to the small study groups and differences in age and gender, but further investigations are warranted, including of ED's diagnostic accuracy for PH versus that of other proposed ECG and VCG criteria.
Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.
The purpose of the Mars Entry, Descent and Landing Systems Analysis (EDL-SA) study was to identify feasible technologies that will enable human exploration of Mars, specifically to deliver large payloads to the Martian surface. This paper focuses on the methods used to guide and control two of the contending technologies, a mid- lift-to-drag (L/D) rigid aeroshell and a hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator (HIAD), through the entry portion of the trajectory. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used to simulate and analyze the trajectories of the contending technologies and guidance and control algorithms. Three guidance algorithms are discussed in this paper: EDL theoretical guidance, Numerical Predictor-Corrector (NPC) guidance and Analytical Predictor-Corrector (APC) guidance. EDL-SA also considered two forms of control: bank angle control, similar to that used by Apollo and the Space Shuttle, and a center-of-gravity (CG) offset control. This paper presents the performance comparison of these guidance algorithms and summarizes the results as they impact the technology recommendations for future study.
This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.
A growing number of species require conservation or management efforts. Success of these activities requires knowledge of the species' occurrence pattern. Species-habitat models developed from GIS data sources are commonly used to predict species occurrence but commonly used data sources are often developed for purposes other than predicting species occurrence and are of inappropriate scale and the techniques used to extract predictor variables are often time consuming and cannot be repeated easily and thus cannot efficiently reflect changing conditions. We used digital orthophotographs and a grid cell classification scheme to develop an efficient technique to extract predictor variables. We combined our classification scheme with a priori hypothesis development using expert knowledge and a previously published habitat suitability index and used an objective model selection procedure to choose candidate models. We were able to classify a large area (57,000 ha) in a fraction of the time that would be required to map vegetation and were able to test models at varying scales using a windowing process. Interpretation of the selected models confirmed existing knowledge of factors important to Florida scrub-jay habitat occupancy. The potential uses and advantages of using a grid cell classification scheme in conjunction with expert knowledge or an habitat suitability index (HSI) and an objective model selection procedure are discussed.
The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.
In the past few years much of the global ATM research community has proposed advanced systems based on Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO). The concept of TBO uses four-dimensional aircraft trajectories as the base information for managing safety and capacity. Both the US and European advanced ATM programs call for the sharing of trajectory data across different decision support tools for successful operations. However, the actual integration of TBO systems presents many challenges. Trajectory predictors are built to meet the specific needs of a particular system and are not always compatible with others. Two case studies are presented which examine the challenges of introducing a new concept into two legacy systems in regards to their trajectory prediction software. The first case describes the issues with integrating a new decision support tool with a legacy operational system which overlap in domain space. These tools perform similar functions but are driven by different requirements. The difference in the resulting trajectories can lead to conflicting advisories. The second case looks at integrating this same new tool with a legacy system originally developed as an integrated system, but diverged many years ago. Both cases illustrate how the lack of common architecture concepts for the trajectory predictors added cost and complexity to the integration efforts.
Restoration of the industrial salt flats in the San Francisco Bay, California is an ongoing wetland rehabilitation project. Remote sensing maps of suspended sediment concentration, and other GIS predictor variables were used to model sediment deposition within these recently restored ponds. Suspended sediment concentrations were calibrated to reflectance values from Landsat TM 5 and ASTER using three statistical techniques -- linear regression, multivariate regression, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to map suspended sediment concentrations. Multivariate and ANN regressions using ASTER proved to be the most accurate methods, yielding r2 values of 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. Predictor variables such as sediment grain size and tidal frequency were used in the Marsh Sedimentation (MARSED) model for predicting deposition rates for three years. MARSED results for a fully restored pond show a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 66.8 mm (<1) between modeled and field observations. This model was further applied to a pond breached in November 2010 and indicated that the recently breached pond will reach equilibrium levels after 60 months of tidal inundation.