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Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗

Advanced Materials and Component Development for Lithium-ion Cells for NASA Missions

Human missions to Near Earth Objects, such as asteroids, planets, moons, libration points, and orbiting structures, will require safe, high specific energy, high energy density batteries to provide new or extended capabilities than are possible with today s state-of-the-art aerospace batteries. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced High Energy and Ultra High Energy lithium-ion cells to address these needs. In order to meet the performance goals, advanced, high-performing materials are required to provide improved performance at the component-level that contributes to performance at the integrated cell level. This paper will provide an update on the performance of experimental materials through the completion of two years of development. The progress of materials development, remaining challenges, and an outlook for the future of these materials in near term cell products will be discussed.

Reid, Concha M.↗

Deep Space navigation for the BioSentinel spacecraft science orbit

BioSentinel is an astrobiology small spacecraft mission. The payload consists of two parts, the first has optical and microfluidics sensors, and the second is a Linear Energy Transfer spectrometer that has the objective to measure deep space radiation from events such as coronal mass ejections. The goal of the mission is to observe potential DNA damage due to the radiation in heliocentric space on the living organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae, which is a budding yeast. Two types of this living organism are included in the payload. The first is a natural type that is more radiation tolerant, while the second is a mutant strain that has a deficiency in a gene that allows DNA repair once damage occurs. The impact caused by the radiation on the DNA is compared to an identical sample aboard the International Space Station, as well as another identical sample at a laboratory on the ground. The BioSentinel mission consists of a 6U CubeSat currently ,as of January 2024, active in heliocentric orbit. The spacecraft was launched aboard the first SLS flight as part of the Artemis-I campaign in November 2022. After successful deployment from the launch vehicle, it performed a lunar flyby with an altitude of 406 km. The delta-V imparted by the flyby provided the necessary energy to achieve a heliocentric orbit, in an Earth-trailing pattern. The navigation analysis consisted of a Kalman-filter that utilized data from the Deep Space Network and the ESA Estrack network. All those antennas were needed since the Artemis-1 campaign included the deployment of several other cubesats, therefore the scheduling process required more antenna assets than usual due to simultaneous demands from various missions. The processed tracking data was later also refined with a smoother in order to obtain a more accurate solution. The type of tracking data included TCP, Sequential Range, Doppler and Range formats. The solar radiation pressure coefficient, as well as the delta-V from the deployment and the flyby were modeled to obtain suitable solutions that could decrease the position and velocity uncertainties at several steps along the mission concept of operations. The final product each time resulted in updated ephemeris files that were used by the mission and the antenna networks as the mission progressed. Once in the final science orbit, the utilized antennas are only from the DSN network and the data format is bounded to just TCP. Regular orbit determination is performed, every two weeks. The spacecraft is in a nominal well-known orbit, performing regular operations. This paper includes an analysis of the final science orbit, the techniques and procedures utilized to perform orbit determination and a description of the overall navigation campaign produced during the mission and, more specifically, during the final science operations in Deep Space.

BioSentinel↗

Decommissioning of the V1 Nuclear Power Plant Jaslovske Bohunice - 20270

The paper focuses on introducing the approach and method applied for decommissioning of the V1 nuclear power plant (further the 'V1 NPP') located in Jaslovske Bohunice in the Slovak Republic, to the conference participants. The Paper outlines activities and steps necessary to comply with the requirements contained in the decision of the Slovak government from 1999 regarding the early shutdown of the V1 NPP. The company responsible for the V1 NPP decommissioning is Jadrova a vyradovacia spolocnost, a.s., (further JAVYS) with the State as a sole shareholder. On the basis of the V1 NPP Decommissioning Conceptual Plan, out of four assessed options, JAVYS selected the immediate decommissioning option (the 'IDO') for the V1 NPP. On the basis of multi-criteria analysis, the IDO specified the approach of immediate and continuous dismantling of equipment followed by demolition of buildings and preparation of the site for its further potential use. The IDO also included the summary of technical, environmental, legislative information as well as the determination of assumed costs for decommissioning of the V1 NPP. Prior to commencement of the V1 NPP decommissioning, within the process of termination of operation, activities connected with de-fuelling, monitoring, processing of historical waste and, not to forget, the process of obtaining the license for the V1 NPP decommissioning were executed. JAVYS decided to divide the decommissioning process into two stages. In 2011, JAVYS obtained a license for the first stage of the V1 NPP decommissioning. Within this stage, dismantling of inactive equipment, demolitions of inactive buildings, monitoring of systems and preparatory works for the upcoming stage of decommissioning were implemented. In 2015, in line with the license for the 2. stage of the V1 NPP decommissioning, the activities of decontamination and dismantling of contaminated and active equipment as well as demolitions of remaining buildings began. In this stage radioactive waste (RAW) produced during the decommissioning is to be processed. After decontamination, the material fulfilling the free release criteria is to be released into the environment, the site is to be cleared from the scope of the Atomic Act and released from the surveillance of the national regulators. Future application of certain methods and techniques for decontamination and dismantling in similar environments might bring an added value to the operators. Paper includes a description of best practices for Nuclear Power Plant VVER type reactors decommissioning. Schedule comparison is given to show how the critical path of certain projects is being managed. Application of the International Standard for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) methodology provides a uniform method which enables comparison of cost estimates to other nuclear facilities under decommissioning. The cost estimate for the V1 NPP decommissioning has been continuously updated based on more advanced and detailed information on the decommissioning activities and projects. Monitoring of progress of the V1 NPP decommissioning is performed via four key-performance indicators. The Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology is used for evaluating time and cost aspect of decommissioning activities while waste conditioning index is calculated by comparing the actually produced waste to planned values of waste for a respective monitored period. Radiological safety index is assessed by comparison of the personnel records on the individual yearly doses received by each respective employee to the boundary value. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA's Space Launch System Begins Integration, Stacking in Preparation for Artemis I Launch

The Artemis era of human lunar exploration is nearing take-off as NASA’s new super heavy-lift launch vehicle, the Space Launch System (SLS), begins stack-ing and integration operations in mid-2020 at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. With a planned upgrade path to progressively more powerful vehicles and availability in crew and cargo configurations, SLS provides a unique and flexible launch solution to send crew, large-scale infrastructure and robotic probes to deep space. The SLS Block 1 vehicle, the initial variant to fly, is optimized for lunar missions with a proven propulsion system consisting of four liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX)-fed RS-25 engines and twin five-segment solid rocket boosters (SRBs). The Block 1 vehicle can also be outfitted with an industry-standard 5 m-class payload fairing (the “cargo” configuration) and will launch at least 27 metric tons (t) of mass to trans-lunar injection (TLI). SLS is the backbone of NASA’s Artemis program, which will return the agency’s human spaceflight program to the Moon for the first time since 1972. For the Artemis I mission, SLS will send an uncrewed Orion spacecraft to TLI, where it will enter a distant retrograde lunar orbit and fly 38,000 nmi past the Moon – farther than any spacecraft built for humans has ever traveled. The SLS Block 1 vehicle for Artemis I completed manufacturing in 2019. Several elements, including the upper stage, have been delivered to the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) program at KSC and are being prepped for integration and stack-ing. The five-segment solid rocket boosters – the largest and most powerful ever built for flight – are also complete. The booster motor segments for the Artemis I flight are scheduled to ship from prime contractor Northrop Grumman’s Utah facilities and begin stacking and integration at KSC in June 2020. The SLS core stage is the largest rocket stage NASA has ever built in terms of volume and height, and includes the avionics and the tanks that feed cryogenic propellant to the four RS-25s (formerly Space Shuttle Main Engines [SSMEs]). They have been modified with an updated controller and nozzle insulation to protect them from the hotter launch environment. The SLS core stage is currently being test-ed at NASA’s Stennis Space Center (SSC) in a series of “green run” tests to verify it meets design and performance requirements. Following the green run test series, which is scheduled to culminate with a full-duration hot-fire of the four RS-25 engines, the core stage will ship to KSC and be stacked between the sol-id rocket boosters in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Integration of the vehicle will continue with the upper stage, known as the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS) and the Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter (LVSA) on the core stage. Another adapter, the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA), connects SLS to Orion and provides housing for 13 6U CubeSat payloads manifested on Artemis I. The CubeSats will be released in deep space after Orion separates from the vehicle, and the flight marks the first ride share opportunity for independent small-sats to deep space. The second major SLS variant to come online, Block 1B, replaces the single-engine ICPS with a four-engine LH2/LOX Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). This more powerful upper stage, along with other vehicle up-grades, will enable the Block 1B vehicle to launch 38-42 t to TLI, depending on crew or cargo configuration. The final evolution of the vehicle, Block 2, will onramp evolved solid rocket boosters to increase mass to TLI to 43-46 t, de-pending on crew or cargo configuration. The Block 1B/Block 2 vehicles can be outfitted with an 8.4 m-diameter payload fairing in 19.1 m or 27.4 m lengths, to provide unprecedented volume for payloads. With the initial Block 1 vehicle completely manufactured and the core stage in final testing before shipping to KSC, the SLS Program and its industry partners have made significant progress manufacturing subsequent vehicles. For the second Block 1 vehicle, the solid rocket motor segments are complete, as are the RS-25 engines with controllers. All five major components of the Artemis II core stage – the forward skirt, LOX and LH2 tanks, intertank and engine section – are manufactured and technicians are installing subsystems at NASA’s rocket factory, Michoud Assembly Facility. The RL-10 engine for the Artemis II ICPS is complete and panels have been machined for its LH2 tank. In addition, panels are machined for the vehicle’s two adapters, with welding scheduled to begin in summer 2020. Flight hard-ware is also in production for the third SLS vehicle, with several booster motor segments cast. The pace of development on the EUS has increased, with the goal to complete Critical Design Review (CDR) in December 2020. Several EUS test rings have been machined at Michoud. The EUS is designed to exe-cute a variety of missions – human spaceflight, deployment of deep-space infra-structure, or high-C3 missions to the outer solar system – with crew and cargo configurations available beginning in the mid-2020s. The near-term goal for the nation’s powerful new space exploration asset, however, is to launch the Arte-mis program, and send the first woman and the next man to the lunar surface. At the Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, the SLS program will update the community on the progress of the initial Block 1 vehicle in final green run test-ing, integration and stacking. In addition, this paper will provide an update to the community on the manufacturing status of subsequent Block 1 and Block 1B vehicles.

Steve Creech↗

Validating Connected, Automated, and Electric Vehicle Models and Simulation - Research Performance Progress Report

The objective of this project is to test connected and automated vehicles with both electrified and internal combustion engine powertrains to support updates and validation of modeling and simulation tools. This includes the development of the components and network architecture to execute and collect empirical data for multiple scenarios and traffic interactions. Specific program objectives include: • Translate Lab algorithms into vehicle and infrastructure controls • Conduct physical testing at realistic scale • Evaluate system performance • Improve models using empirical data • Improve control algorithms from lessons learned • Identify system and algorithm assumptions which need refinement It is important to note that the objective of this project was not to demonstrate the efficacy of the selected algorithms to improve energy efficiency but rather to validate and improve modeling and simulation tools using empirical data. While it is a desirable outcome to concurrently demonstrate improved energy efficiency through use of these algorithms, and in most cases that was the outcome, the success of this project was not predicated on the performance of the algorithm towards improving energy efficiency across all scenarios and test matrices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ORNL Infrastructure: Status Update on BEA Research Reactor Cask Planning Activities Completed During FY 2025

This report documents Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) FY 2025 progress toward establishing readiness to use the Battelle Energy Alliance (BEA) Research Reactor (BRR) shipping cask in support of the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF). The BRR cask will provide a new shared infrastructure capability for transporting irradiated fuels and materials between ORNL and Idaho National Laboratory (INL), thereby supporting NSUF’s mission of enabling user access to advanced nuclear research facilities. In FY 2025, ORNL advanced the regulatory, contractual, safety review, and planning activities necessary to qualify its facilities and staff for BRR cask handling. Although loaded shipments were delayed due to fabrication lead times for Orano Federal Services LLC’s internal basket hardware, the program progressed to the point where an empty cask dry run is scheduled for October 2025. This dry run represents a critical step in demonstrating ORNL’s ability to receive, handle, and return the BRR cask.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The PDF4LHC21 combination of global PDF fits for the LHC Run III

A precise knowledge of the quark and gluon structure of the proton, encoded by the parton distribution functions (PDFs), is of paramount importance for the interpretation of high-energy processes at present and future lepton–hadron and hadron–hadron colliders. Motivated by recent progress in the PDF determinations carried out by the CT, MSHT, and NNPDF groups, we present an updated combination of global PDF fits: PDF4LHC21. It is based on the Monte Carlo combination of the CT18, MSHT20, and NNPDF3.1 sets followed by either its Hessian reduction or its replica compression. Extensive benchmark studies are carried out in order to disentangle the origin of the differences between the three global PDF sets. In particular, dedicated fits based on almost identical theory settings and input datasets are performed by the three groups, highlighting the role played by the respective fitting methodologies. We compare the new PDF4LHC21 combination with its predecessor, PDF4LHC15, demonstrating their good overall consistency and a modest reduction of PDF uncertainties for key LHC processes such as electroweak gauge boson production and Higgs boson production in gluon fusion. We study the phenomenological implications of PDF4LHC21 for a representative selection of inclusive, fiducial, and differential cross sections at the LHC. The PDF4LHC21 combination is made available via the LHAPDF library and provides a robust, user-friendly, and efficient method to estimate the PDF uncertainties associated to theoretical calculations for the upcoming Run III of the LHC and beyond.

quantum chromodynamics↗

September 2021 Operational Highlights

Bulleted highlights including progress report for NSRC's Rocky Flats Digitization Lab, the Online Vault bulk upload, patching and system updates, and information about publishing NSRC-produced The Vault .

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Ares I First Stage Progress

Building on the legacy of the Space Shuttle and other NASA space exploration initiatives, the propulsion for the Ares I First Stage will be a Shuttle derived reusable solid rocket motor. Significant progress has been made to date by the Ares First Stage Team. This brief status provides an update on the design and development of the Ares First Stage propulsion system.

Brasfield, Fred↗

Solar cell efficiency tables (Version 61)

Abstract Consolidated tables showing an extensive listing of the highest independently confirmed efficiencies for solar cells and modules are presented. Guidelines for inclusion of results into these tables are outlined, and new entries since July 2022 are reviewed. Graphs showing progress with each cell technology over the 30‐year history of the tables are also included plus an updated list of designated test centres.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental study of ERTS-1 imagery: Lake Champlain and Vermont

Environmental concerns of the State of Vermont currently being stressed include water quality in Lake Champlain and a state-wide land use and capability plan. Significant results obtained from ERTS-1 relate directly to the above concerns. Industrial water pollution and turbidity in Lake Champlain have been identified and mapped and the ERTS pollution data will be used in the developing court suit which Vermont has initiated against the polluters. ERTS imagery has also provided a foundation for updating and revising land use inventories. Major classes of land use have been identified and mapped, and substantial progress has been made toward the mapping of such land use divisions as crop and forest type, and wetlands.

Lind, A. O.↗

Universal single level implicit algorithm for gasdynamics

A single level effectively explicit implicit algorithm for gasdynamics is presented. The method meets all the requirements for unconditionally stable global iteration over flows with mixed supersonic and supersonic zones including blunt body flow and boundary layer flows with strong interaction and streamwise separation. For hyperbolic (supersonic flow) regions the method is automatically equivalent to contemporary space marching methods. For elliptic (subsonic flow) regions, rapid convergence is facilitated by alternating direction solution sweeps which bring both sets of eigenvectors and the influence of both boundaries of a coordinate line equally into play. Point by point updating of the data with local iteration on the solution procedure at each spatial step as the sweeps progress not only renders the method single level in storage but, also, improves nonlinear accuracy to accelerate convergence by an order of magnitude over related two level linearized implicit methods. The method derives robust stability from the combination of an eigenvector split upwind difference method (CSCM) with diagonally dominant ADI(DDADI) approximate factorization and computed characteristic boundary approximations.

Lombard, C. K.↗

Hybrid Image-Plane/Stereo Manipulation

Hybrid Image-Plane/Stereo (HIPS) manipulation is a method of processing image data, and of controlling a robotic manipulator arm in response to the data, that enables the manipulator arm to place an end-effector (an instrument or tool) precisely with respect to a target (see figure). Unlike other stereoscopic machine-vision-based methods of controlling robots, this method is robust in the face of calibration errors and changes in calibration during operation. In this method, a stereoscopic pair of cameras on the robot first acquires images of the manipulator at a set of predefined poses. The image data are processed to obtain image-plane coordinates of known visible features of the end-effector. Next, there is computed an initial calibration in the form of a mapping between (1) the image-plane coordinates and (2) the nominal three-dimensional coordinates of the noted end-effector features in a reference frame fixed to the main robot body at the base of the manipulator. The nominal three-dimensional coordinates are obtained by use of the nominal forward kinematics of the manipulator arm that is, calculated by use of the currently measured manipulator joint angles and previously measured lengths of manipulator arm segments under the assumption that the arm segments are rigid, that the arm lengths are constant, and that there is no backlash. It is understood from the outset that these nominal three-dimensional coordinates are likely to contain possibly significant calibration errors, but the effects of the errors are progressively reduced, as described next. As the end-effector is moved toward the target, the calibration is updated repeatedly by use of data from newly acquired images of the end-effector and of the corresponding nominal coordinates in the manipulator reference frame. By use of the updated calibration, the coordinates of the target are computed in manipulator-reference-frame coordinates and then used to the necessary manipulator joint angles to position and orient the end-effector at the target with respect to the same kinematic model from the calibration step. As the end-effector/target distance decreases, the computed coordinates of the end-effector and target become more nearly affected by the same errors, so that the differences between their coordinates become increasingly precise. When the end-effector reaches the target, the remaining effective position error is the distance that corresponds to more than about one pixel in the stereoscopic images of the target.

Baumgartner, Eric↗

Development and Use of Engineering Standards for Computational Fluid Dynamics for Complex Aerospace Systems

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are increasingly relied on for predictive performance, reliability and safety of engineering systems. Analysts, designers, decision makers, and project managers, who must depend on simulation, need practical techniques and methods for assessing simulation credibility. The AIAA Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (AIAA G-077-1998 (2002)), originally published in 1998, was the first engineering standards document available to the engineering community for verification and validation (V&V) of simulations. Much progress has been made in these areas since 1998. The AIAA Committee on Standards for CFD is currently updating this Guide to incorporate in it the important developments that have taken place in V&V concepts, methods, and practices, particularly with regard to the broader context of predictive capability and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods and approaches. This paper will provide an overview of the changes and extensions currently underway to update the AIAA Guide. Specifically, a framework for predictive capability will be described for incorporating a wide range of error and uncertainty sources identified during the modeling, verification, and validation processes, with the goal of estimating the total prediction uncertainty of the simulation. The Guide's goal is to provide a foundation for understanding and addressing major issues and concepts in predictive CFD. However, this Guide will not recommend specific approaches in these areas as the field is rapidly evolving. It is hoped that the guidelines provided in this paper, and explained in more detail in the Guide, will aid in the research, development, and use of CFD in engineering decision-making.

Lee, Hyung B.↗

Progress on Ares First Stage Propulsion

The mission of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is not simply to maintain its current position with the International Space Station and other space exploration endeavors, but to build a permanent outpost on the Moon and then travel on to explore ever more distant terrains. The Constellation Program will oversee the development of the crew capsule, launch vehicles, and other systems needed to achieve this mission. From this initiative will come two new launch vehicles: the Ares I and Ares V. The Ares I will be a human-rated vehicle, which will be used for crew transport; the Ares V, a cargo transport vehicle, will be the largest launch vehicle ever built. The Ares Projects team at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama is assigned with developing these two new vehicles. The Ares I vehicle will have an in-line, two-stage rocket configuration. The first stage will provide the thrust or propulsion component for the Ares rocket systems through the first two minutes of the mission. The First Stage Team is tasked with developing the propulsion system necessary to liftoff from the Earth and loft the entire Ares vehicle stack toward low-Earth orbit. Building on the legacy of the Space Shuttle and other NASA space exploration initiatives, the propulsion for the Ares I First Stage will be a Shuttle-derived reusable solid rocket motor. Progress to date by the First Stage Team has been robust and on schedule. This paper provides an update on the design and development of the Ares First Stage Propulsion system.

Priskos, Alex S.↗