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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Differentially Private Map Matching (DPMM) v1.0

Human mobility trajectories provide valuable information for developing mobility applications, as they contain diverse and rich information about the users. User mobility data is valuable for various applications such as intelligent transportation systems (ITS), commercial business models, and disease-spread models. However, such spatio-temporal traces may pose a threat to user privacy. GPS trajectories in their raw form are not suitable for transportation studies, as they require matching locations with nearest road links — a process called map-matching. This software implements a differential privacy (DP)-based map-matching algorithm, called DPMM, that generates link-level location trajectories in a privacy-preserving manner to protect users' origin destinations (OD) and travel paths. OD privacy is achieved by injecting Planar Laplace noise to the user OD GPS points. Travel-path privacy is provided with randomized travel path construction using exponential DP mechanism. The injected noise level is selected adaptively, by considering the link density of the location and the functional category of the localized links. For path privacy, our mechanism samples waypoints and selects candidate paths between waypoints. DPMM provides privacy effectively with respect to link density instead of other trajectory samples in the database compared to other privacy mechanisms. Compared to the different baseline models our DP-based privacy model offers closer query responses to the raw data in terms of individual and aggregate trajectory-level statistics with an average at absolute deviation from the baseline for individual statistics on ϵ = 1.0. Beyond individual trajectory statistics, the DPMM outperforms the other benchmark DP-based mechanisms on different aggregate statistics with up to 8x improvement in utility.

Peisert, Sean [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2023

Label Assist: Personalized Travel Models for Longitudinal Data Collection

Understanding travel behavior is crucial to transportation decarbonization. OpenPATH is an open-source mobility platform which collects and analyzes human travel behavior at the individual level. The mobile application passively senses trips and prompts users to label them. However, users find the labeling process burdensome; less than half the trips are typically labeled, making much of the data unusable in aggregate analyses of mobility patterns. Prior work has addressed the response fatigue challenge through automated mode inference using sensor data, but sensors cannot capture all aspects of travel behavior. We explore an alternative approach in which we leverage prior user input to predict travel choices in novel trips. We first explore trip clustering methods and develop a novel two-step pipeline using DBSCAN and SVMs to extract realistic geospatial clusters. We then propose two strategies to predict trip labels: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating labels for similar trips, and (ii) random forest classification. The random forest approach is able to achieve - $70-80% accuracy (purpose: 72%, mode: 79%, replaced mode: 81%). These novel approaches to trip classification allow us to increase the rate of user labeling by suggesting predicted labels to be verified by the user. Unlabeled trips can also contribute to aggregate analyses, using label predictions and their associated confidences as a substitute. While there exist other travel survey apps with the ability to infer travel choices, to our knowledge, this is the first paper to describe such a supervised system and rigorously evaluate it.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical resilience to disorder: The dilute Hubbard model on the Lieb lattice

In itinerant systems, electron-electron interactions may lead to the formation of local magnetic moments and their effective exchange coupling, which in turn gives rise to long-range magnetic order. Therefore, when moment formation is weakened, such as in the single-band Hubbard model on a square lattice with the on-site repulsion being randomly switched off on a fraction $\textit{x}$ of sites, magnetic order is suppressed beyond some critical $x_c$, which was found to lie below the classical percolation threshold $x^{\text{(perc,sq)}}_c$. Here we study dilute magnetism in flat band systems, namely, in the Hubbard model on a “Lieb” lattice. Interestingly, we show that magnetic order persists to x almost twice as large as the classical percolation threshold for the lattice, thus emphasizing the central role of electron itinerancy to the magnetic response. Further, the analysis of the orbital-resolved order parameters reveals that the contribution of the fourfold coordinated $\textit{“d”}$ sites to magnetism is dramatically affected by dilution, while the localized $\textit{“p”}$ states of the flat band provide the dominant contribution to long-range correlations. We also examine the transport properties, which suggest the existence of an insulator-to-metal transition in the same range of the critical magnetic dilution.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty analysis for VERA problem 2 using the cell-code Condor v2.8.05

Condor is a cell-level neutronic calculation code that applies multi-group collision probabilities with heterogeneous response coupling method within generic geometry configurations. Under the Condor's code continuous development, the incorporation of up-to-date methodologies and state-of-the-art practices in reactor analysis represents a driving force. In this work, the capabilities of Condor v2.8.05 to develop an uncertainty analysis for realistic PWR-kind fuel assemblies are studied. The Total Monte Carlo approach is applied to quantify the impact of fabrication tolerances in the code's results for reactivity and power distributions, by means of randomly sampled input values using the VERA problem 2 as basis. The VERA problem 2 proposes a series of Westinghouse 2D 17 x 17-type fuel lattices, to be calculated reflected at beginning-of-life without Xe. The configurations correspond to a modern PWR. Selected neutronic parameters from Condor runs are thus analyzed in terms of the observed spread as well as the obtained distributions for the randomly perturbed cases, showing the capability of the code to handle the required input data, as well as its ability to provide valuable insights regarding uncertainty quantification.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive machine learning approaches for the microstructural behavior of multiphase zirconium alloys

Abstract Zirconium alloys are widely used in harsh environments characterized by high temperatures, corrosivity, and radiation exposure. These alloys, which have a hexagonal closed packed (h.c.p.) structure thermo-mechanically degrade, when exposed to severe operating environments due to hydride formation. These hydrides have a different crystalline structure, than the matrix, which results in a multiphase alloy. To accurately model these materials at the relevant physical scale, it is necessary to fully characterize them based on a microstructural fingerprint, which is defined here as a combination of features that include hydride geometry, parent and hydride texture and crystalline structure of these multiphase alloys. Hence, this investigation will develop a reduced order modeling approach, where this microstructural fingerprint is used to predict critical fracture stress levels that are physically consistent with microstructural deformation and fracture modes. Machine Learning (ML) methodologies based on Gaussian Process Regression, random forests, and multilayer perceptrons (MLP) were used to predict material fracture critical stress states. MLPs, or neural networks, had the highest accuracy on held-out test sets across three predetermined strain levels of interest. Hydride orientation, grain orientation or texture, and hydride volume fraction had the greatest effect on critical fracture stress levels and had partial dependencies that were highly significant, and in comparison hydride length and hydride spacing have less effects on fracture stresses. Furthermore, these models were also used accurately predicted material response to nominal applied strains as a function of the microstructural fingerprint.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quasi-Random Multimetallic Nanoparticle Arrays

Here, this paper describes a nanofabrication procedure that can generate multiscale substrates with quasi-random microregions of nanoparticle arrays having different periodicities and metals. We combine cycles of large-area nanoparticle array fabrication with solvent-assisted wrinkle lithography to mask and etch quasi-random areas of prefabricated nanoparticles to control the fill factors of the arrays. The approach is highly flexible, and parameters, including nanoparticle size and material, array geometry, and fill factor, can be tailored independently. Multimetallic nanoparticle arrays can support surface lattice resonances at fill factors as low as 20% and can function as nanoscale cavities for lasing action with as few as 10% of the nanoparticles in an array. We demonstrated that multimetallic nanoparticle substrates that combine two or three arrays with different periodicities can exhibit lasing responses over visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Our work showcases the robust optical responses of multimetallic and periodic devices for broadband light manipulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Twinning-mediated anomalous alignment of rutile films revealed by synchrotron X-ray nanodiffraction

Nanotwin structures in materials engender fascinating exotic properties. However, twinning usually alter the crystal orientation, resulting in random orientation and limited performances. Here, we report a well-aligned rutile TiO 2 nanotwin film with superior preferential orientation than its isostructural substrate. By means of the synchrotron X-ray Laue nanodiffraction technique, the crystal orientation, twin boundaries, and deviatoric stresses of the film were quantitatively imaged at unprecedented spatial resolution to unravel the underlying mechanism of this anomalous alignment. Massive {101}-type rutile nanotwins were observed, and a crystallographic relationship of the heteroepitaxy was proposed. The rapid twinning and twin-controlled heteroepitaxy are responsible for the texture improvement. This work would open up opportunities for rational design of better twin-based functional materials, and implies the powerful capabilities of X-ray nanodiffraction technique for multidisciplinary applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic and Macroscopic Characterization of Grain Boundary Energy and Strength in Silicon Carbide via Machine-Learning Techniques

Predicting the properties of grain boundaries poses a challenge because of the complex relationships between structural and chemical attributes both at the atomic and continuum scales. Grain boundary systems are typically characterized by parameters used to classify local atomic arrangements in order to extract features such as grain boundary energy or grain boundary strength. The present work utilizes a combination of high-throughput atomistic simulations, macroscopic and microscopic descriptors, and machine-learning techniques to characterize the energy and strength of silicon carbide grain boundaries. Additionally, a diverse data set of symmetric tilt and twist grain boundaries are described using macroscopic metrics such as misorientation, the alignment of critical low-index planes, and the Schmid factor, but also in terms of microscopic metrics, by quantifying the local atomic structure and chemistry at the interface. These descriptors are used to create random-forest regression models, allowing for their relative importance to the grain boundary energy and decohesion stress to be better understood. Results show that while the energetics of the grain boundary were best described using the microscopic descriptors, the ability of the macroscopic descriptors to reasonably predict grain boundaries with low energy suggests a link between the crystallographic orientation and the resultant atomic structure that forms at the grain boundary within this regime. For grain boundary strength, neither microscopic nor macroscopic descriptors were able to fully capture the response individually. However, when both descriptor sets were utilized, the decohesion stress of the grain boundary could be accurately predicted. These results highlight the importance of considering both macroscopic and microscopic factors when constructing constitutive models for grain boundary systems, which has significant implications for both understanding the fundamental mechanisms at work and the ability to bridge length scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Prediction of the Experimental Transition Temperature of Fe(II) Spin-Crossover Complexes

Spin-crossover (SCO) complexes are materials that exhibit changes in the spin state in response to external stimuli, with potential applications in molecular electronics. It is challenging to know a priori how to design ligands to achieve the delicate balance of entropic and enthalpic contributions needed to tailor a transition temperature close to room temperature. Here, we leverage the SCO complexes from the previously curated SCO-95 data set [Vennelakanti et al. J. Chem. Phys. 159, 024120 (2023)] to train three machine learning (ML) models for transition temperature (T 1/2 ) prediction using graph-based revised autocorrelations as features. We perform feature selection using random forest-ranked recursive feature addition (RF-RFA) to identify the features essential to model transferability. Of the ML models considered, the full feature set RF and recursive feature addition RF models perform best, achieving moderate correlation to experimental T 1/2 values. We then compare ML T 1/2 predictions to those from three previously identified best-performing density functional approximations (DFAs) which accurately predict SCO behavior across SCO-95, finding that the ML models predict T 1/2 more accurately than the best-performing DFAs. In addition, we study ML model predictions for a set of 18 SCO complexes for which only estimated T 1/2 values are available. Upon excluding outliers from this set, the RF-RFA RF model shows a strong correlation to estimated T 1/2 values with a Pearson’s r of 0.82. In contrast, DFA-predicted T 1/2 values have large errors and show no correlation to estimated T 1/2 values over the same set of complexes. Overall, our study demonstrates slightly superior performance of ML models in comparison with some of the best-performing DFAs, and we expect ML models to improve further as larger data sets of SCO complexes are curated and become available for model training.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental Flow Requirements from FERC Licenses Across the US

Environmental flow requirements included in Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licenses are important for balancing natural properties and benefits of river ecosystems (e.g., healthy species, recreation, water supply, flood control) supporting hydropower production. In some cases, environmental flow requirements may limit operational flexibility given current operational schemes and make a hydropower plant less able to provide power to the electric grid on demand. Hydropower plants may gain some flexibility as hydropower scheduling time periods are made to be more responsive to the short-term needs of an energy grid increasingly reliant on intermittent renewables. However, many flow requirements focus on the daily, monthly, or seasonal flow fluctuations which matches the time scale of most paradigms linking flow alterations to the health of river ecosystems. This dataset seeks to provide a greater understanding of how flexibility in environmental requirements can be leveraged to create positive outcomes for both the power system and the environment. It contains information on environmental flow requirements from the Protection, Mitigation, and Enhancement section of 50 randomly selected FERC licenses: 25 issued from 1998-2013 that were also included in the ORNL Mitigation Database (Schramm et al. 2015) and 25 issued from 2014-present. The information on environmental flow requirements was extracted from the PM&E section of 50 randomly selected FERC licenses: 25 issued from 1998-2013 that were also included in the ORNL Mitigation Database (Schramm et al. 2015) and 25 issued from 2014-present. The flow requirements were then categorized into flow augmentation categories based on whether the license stated a specific water management purpose for the given requirement called augmentation categories (i.e., fisheries or habitat, recreation or boating, industry, and general or unspecified; Table B). Requirements were also grouped into flow type categories (e.g., minimum flow rate, maximum flow rate, ramping rate). Additional information related to flow requirements such as the augmentation time-period and whether the flow rate was continuous (i.e., condition must be present at all-times) or instantaneous (i.e., condition present at a point in time) was also extracted from the licenses. Some licenses had specific flow requirements based on whether the project was in a wet, dry, or normal water year. If that information was presented in the license, it was also included in the data set. The location within the project was noted, hereafter, zone, in the dataset for flow requirements relating to specific areas of hydropower projects (Dam, Powerhouse, Bypass Reach). Maximum discharge capacities of hydropower facilities were also extracted from both the Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) data set and the National Inventory of Dams (NID) databases. Each facility was coded with project identification codes from the EHA dataset to facilitate cross-referencing between datasets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rotational Dynamics and Transition Mechanisms of Surface-Adsorbed Proteins

Assembly of biomolecules at solid-water interfaces requires molecules to traverse complex orientation-dependent energy landscapes through processes that are poorly understood, largely due to the dearth of in-situ single molecule measurements and statistical analyses of the rotational dynamics that define directional selection. Emerging capabilities in high-speed atomic force microscopy and machine learning have allowed us to directly determine the orientational energy landscape and observe and quantify the rotational dynamics for protein nanorods on the surface of muscovite mica under a variety of conditions. Comparisons with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations show that the transition rates between adjacent orientation-specific energetic minima can largely be understood through traditional models of in-plane Brownian rotation across a biased energy landscape, with resulting transition rates that are exponential in the energy-barriers between states. However, transitions between more distant angular states are decoupled from barrier height, with jump-size distributions showing a power-law decay that is characteristic of a non-classical Levy-flight random walk, indicating that large jumps are enabled by alternative modes of motion via activated states. The findings provide new insights into the dynamics of biomolecules at solid-liquid interfaces that lead to self-assembly, epitaxial matching and other orientationally anisotropic outcomes and define a general procedure for exploring such dynamics with implications for hybrid biomolecular-inorganic materials design.

Orientational energy landscapes, Rotational dynami↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determination of single crystal thermal expansion in Uranium-6wt%Niobium shape memory alloy using in-situ diffraction and modeling of textured polycrystalline samples

In-situ neutron diffraction and ex-situ dilatometry experiments were performed on a chemically banded, quenched uranium-6wt% niobium shape memory alloy to study the impact of deformation-(detwinning-) induced texture on the evolution of thermally induced strains (and associated stresses). Thermal heating and cooling cycles between 5K and 473K were performed in-situ with neutron diffraction, and the lattice strain evolution is reported for the observed monoclinic α" phase. Comparisons between the measured diffraction strains and macroscopic dilatometry experiments reveal relationships between micro- and macro-level thermal expansion. Softening of the texture during heating suggests that twin boundary motion can accommodate the large internal thermal strains which are approximately 2% greater than that typically observed during the 175K heating interval used to age more randomly oriented polycrystalline material. Assuming weak constraint of neighboring grains in randomly textured polycrystals, the single crystal thermal expansion tensor is extracted from measurements of lattice strains over the range 5K to 473K. Predictions of polycrystalline thermal expansion, based upon this single crystal thermal expansion tensor, are shown to compare favorably with bulk thermal expansion observations of the as quenched microstructure. However, such a lower-bound estimate is insufficient to explain all aspects of the behavior of the textured material, where the matrix is not isotropic. In conclusion, it is hypothesized that relaxation processes which occur within the quenched microstructure during heating are responsible for the distinct thermal expansion behavior observed during the initial heating cycle compared to cooling and subsequent cycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A bioinspired approach for adaptive solid-solid phase change material coatings with optimized surface features for passive thermal regulation

The necessity to reduce global energy consumption calls for innovative strategies in building thermal management. Passive thermal regulation, particularly through bio-inspired designs, offers a promising avenue by mimicking nature's efficient control of optical properties. This research introduces a novel, climate-responsive coating that integrates optimized bio-inspired surface features with a solid-solid phase change material (SS-PCM) to dynamically manage solar absorptivity without adding additional thickness, enabling both heating and cooling as needed. Drawing on the photonic architectures of the Saharan silver ant and Morpho Didius butterfly, we employed a modeling and multi-objective optimization framework to tailor these surface features. Simulations reveal that surface texture, rather than the intrinsic phase transition of the SS PCM, dominates optical control. Relative to a flat SS PCM coating, optimized isotropic random roughness and broader range features yielded the highest passive heating power increase of about 144 % and 319 % respectively suitable for cold climates. Saharan ant-inspired features enhanced passive cooling for hot climates, achieving a 21.8 % improvement. For moderate climates, Butterfly-wing-inspired surface features provided a balanced enhancement of 19 % for heating and 7 % for cooling. Across all cases, the optimized surface features reduced combined heating and cooling energy demand more effectively than the baseline coating, while preserving material thickness. These findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive, optimized bio-inspired surface features can unlock the full potential of SS PCM coatings, providing a versatile pathway to significant energy savings in buildings and other applications. The methodology establishes a framework for designing next-generation adaptive envelopes that leverage natural photonic principles for high-impact, low-cost thermal regulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Unified probabilistic energy flow analysis for electricity–gas coupled systems with integrated demand response

Under a multi-energy environment, the conventional demand response programmes in smart-grid will be evolving to the concept of integrated demand response (IDR). In order to examine such an effect, this study presents a new methodological framework to conduct the probabilistic energy flow (PEF) analysis of integrated energy systems, while considering the potential effects of IDR. For this aim, a new price-elasticity-based IDR model is developed. As distinct from existing works, this study explicitly focuses on the stochastic characteristics of IDR programme and a novel Z-number-based technique is introduced to handle the relevant uncertainties that involved. The proposed Z-number model can not only capture the inherent randomness in demand-side performance but also account for the potential impact of information availability/reliability on the representation of IDR. Since the presence of Z-numbers makes the authors model include different types of uncertain representations, the fuzzy expectation technique and centroid method are jointly used to make them manageable under the same framework. A comprehensive algorithm based on the cumulant method and an optimisation scheme is employed to solve this PEF problem with consideration of IDR. The proposed framework is illustrated through numerical studies and simulation results confirm its effectiveness in actual implementations.

Zeng, Bo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗