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DOE OSTI2024

High–Performance NiCo 2 O 4 /Graphene Quantum Dots for Asymmetric and Symmetric Supercapacitors with Enhanced Energy Efficiency

For the sustainable growth of future generations, energy storage technologies like supercapacitors and batteries are becoming more and more common. However, reliable and high-performance materials’ design and development is the key for the widespread adoption of batteries and supercapacitors. Quantum dots with fascinating and unusual properties are expected to revolutionize future technologies. However, while the recent discovery of quantum dots honored with a Nobel prize in Chemistry, their benefits for the tenacious problem of energy are not realized yet. In this context, herein, chemical-composition tuning enabled exceptional performance of NiCo 2 O 4 (NCO)/graphene quantum dots (GQDs) is reported, which outperform the existing similar materials, in supercapacitors. A comprehensive study is performed on the synthesis, characterization, and electrochemical performance evaluation of highly functional NCO/GQDs in supercapacitors delivering enhanced energy efficiency. The high-performance, functional NCO/GQDs electrode materials are synthesized by the incorporation of GQDs into NCO. The effect of variable amount of GQDs on the energy performance characteristics of NCO/GQDs in supercapacitors is studied systematically. In-depth structural and chemical bonding analyses using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopic studies indicate that all the NCO/GQDs composites crystallize in the spinel cubic phase of NiCo 2 O 4 while graphene integration evident in all the NCO/GQDs. The scanning electron microscopy imaging analysis reveals homogeneously distributed spherical particles with a size distribution of 5–9 nm validating the formation of QDs. The high-resolution transmission electron microscopy analyses reveal that the NCOQDs are anchored on graphene sheets, which provide a high surface area of 42.27 m 2 g –1 and high mesoporosity for the composition of NCO/GQDs-10%. In addition to establishing reliable electrical connection to graphene sheets, the NCOQDs provide reliable 3D-conductive channels for rapid transport throughout the electrode as well as synergistic effects. Chemical-composition tuning, and optimization yields NCO/GQDs-10% to deliver the best specific capacitance of 3940 Fg –1 at 0.5 Ag –1 , where the electrodes retain ≈98% capacitance after 5000 cycles. The NCO/GQD-10%//AC asymmetric supercapacitor device demonstrates outstanding energy density and power density values of 118.04 Wh kg –1 and 798.76 W kg –1 , respectively. The NCO/GQDs-10%//NCO/GQDs-10% symmetric supercapacitor device delivers excellent energy and power density of 24.30 Wh kg –1 and 500 W kg –1 , respectively. These results demonstrate and conclude that NCO/GQDs are exceptional and prospective candidates for developing next-generation high-performance and sustainable energy storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of multisite raters for prospective visual reads of amyloid PET scans

Abstract INTRODUCTION In multicenter Alzheimer's disease studies, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads are typically performed centrally by a few experts. Incorporating a broader reader network enhances scalability and generalizability. METHODS Ten neuroimaging experts from eight Alzheimer's Disease Research Centers (ADRCs) visually read 180 amyloid PET scans (30 scans and 15 duplicate scans for each of four tracers, imaged across a wide variety of scanners), using preferred reading software without anatomical imaging or quantitation. Scans were classified as elevated or non‐elevated per tracer‐specific criteria. Inter‐ and intra‐rater agreement was assessed. RESULTS Inter‐rater agreement was substantial (Fleiss’κ = 0.78), with full consensus on 69% of scans. Inter‐rater reliability was substantial to perfect across tracers (Fleiss’κ = 0.70–0.87). Intra‐rater agreement was substantial to perfect (Cohen'sκ = 0.79‐1). Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation had lower reader agreement. DISCUSSION A multicenter expert network achieved substantial agreement classifying amyloid PET scans. These scans provide a standard for reader training and reliability assurance in future studies. Highlights Calibration methods ensure reliable amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads across multiple raters. Substantial agreement is possible across readers using their preferred tools. Agreement is also substantial regardless of the amyloid PET tracer used. Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation have lower reader agreement. The calibration set will become a training tool for amyloid PET visual read studies.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Characterization of Additive Manufacturing Components with Computed Tomography, 3D X-ray Microscopy, and Deep Learning

Additive manufacturing (AM) facilitates the creation of complex-geometry parts, driving advancements in lightweight aerospace components, high-efficiency engine cooling channels, and customized medical implants. However, ensuring the quality and reliability of AM parts remains challenging due to internal defects, surface irregularities, porosity, and residual trapped powder, which are often inaccessible to traditional inspection methods. Recent developments in X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and 3D X-ray microscopy (XRM), particularly systems equipped with resolution-at-a-distance (RaaD™) capabilities, enable high-resolution, non-destructive evaluation of AM components across multiple scales, from sub-micrometer to macroscopic levels. This paper explores modern XCT and XRM techniques for multiscale characterization of AM parts, focusing on their ability to detect and analyze defects such as porosity, cracks, inclusions, and surface roughness, while offering insights into defect formation mechanisms, material properties, and process-induced variations. The integration of deep learning (DL) frameworks, including Simurgh, DeepRecon, and DeepScout, enhances XCT/XRM workflows by reducing scan times, improving resolution recovery, and enabling accurate defect detection even with limited projection data. These DL-based methods overcome limitations of traditional reconstruction techniques, enabling faster, more reliable characterization of dense materials like Inconel 718 and novel alloys such as AlCe. Applications include process parameter optimization, high-throughput quality control, and multistage AM process evaluation, with DL-enhanced workflows accelerating analysis times from weeks to days. Correlative imaging approaches further validate XCT and XRM data against scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of physically sectioned samples, confirming the accuracy of DL-based reconstructions and enabling comprehensive defect analysis. While challenges remain in generalizing DL models to diverse materials and imaging conditions, improvements in resolution, noise reduction, and defect detection highlight the transformative potential of these methods. This multiscale and correlative approach enables precise identification and correlation of microstructural features with the overall performance of AM components. By integrating advanced XCT, XRM, and DL techniques, this paper demonstrates a significant leap forward in AM characterization, offering valuable insights into the relationships between processing parameters, microstructure, and part performance, and driving innovations that enhance the quality and reliability of AM products for demanding industrial applications.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identification of pressure points in modern power systems using transfer entropy

Power shortages disrupt daily life, economic activity, and essential services. In modern power systems, weather is an increasingly important driver of reliability: high temperatures raise demand and limit transmission capacity, and calm or cloudy periods reduce wind and solar supply. Using a data-driven analysis, this study identifies grid infrastructure whose operating patterns help predict power shortages. The results show that reliability risks often emerge from interacting stresses across generation, transmission, and demand, rather than from single bottlenecks. By clarifying how system stress propagates through the grid, this diagnostic perspective helps explain why shortages occur under specific conditions and can complement traditional planning and operational tools to support adaptive reliability strategies, targeted monitoring, and coordinated infrastructure investments.

power systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE-based Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for advanced open-source tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling

Tritium management is critical for the safety, sustainability, and economics of fusion energy systems, and advanced and reliable modeling tools help accelerate the development of tritium technologies. This paper presents the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8), an open-source, MOOSE-based application developed to provide state-of-the-art tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling capabilities. TMAP8 aims to expand the capabilities of previous versions (i.e., TMAP4 and TMAP7) by leveraging modern computational techniques, ensuring high software quality assurance standards (key to building trust), and enabling multispecies, multiscale, and multiphysics simulations for integrated tritium transport modeling in complex geometries. This paper outlines TMAP8’s scope and rigorous development practices, emphasizing its transparency, accessibility, modularity, and reliability. We present the current suite of verification and validation cases based on those from TMAP4, demonstrating TMAP8’s accuracy and reliability against analytical solutions and experimental data. Additionally, the paper showcases TMAP8’s integrated fuel cycle modeling capabilities, highlighting its applicability at various scales and levels. The TMAP8 code and documentation are openly available, promoting collaborative development and widespread adoption within the fusion community. Future work will soon expand TMAP8’s verification and validation suite to include those from TMAP7 and other recent experimental studies for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An integrated approach to examine fuel-cladding chemical interaction in HT9/U-10Zr metallic fast reactor fuels: Coupling machine learning with electron microscopy and local mechanical properties analysis

The metallic U-Zr nuclear fuel alloy has garnered renewed interest as a promising candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Recent studies and technology assessments have identified several areas requiring improvements, enhanced knowledge, and reliable data to strengthen the U-Zr fuel design basis for qualification and commercial applications. One of the most challenging phenomena impacting this fuel system’s performance is fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI). This work aimed to harvest FCCI data by examining selected HT9/U-10Zr (wt. %) fuel samples of prototypic full-length fuel pins through an integrated approach. This approach integrated scanning electron microscopy (SEM) microstructure characterization with localized mechanical properties examination to deepen understanding of FCCI phenomenon in HT9/U-10Zr fuel system. Particularly, this study focused on MFF fuel pins irradiated at Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), which aimed to qualify metallic fuel as a driver fuel for FFTF and to assess its viability for larger-scale fast reactors. Electron microscopy provided high confidence in detecting and distinguishing the different FCCI layers, while small-scale mechanical testing (SSMT) probed the mechanical properties of these layers. SEM examination of a MFF-2 pin 192167, with a time averaged inner cladding temperature (TICT) slightly over 500°C, revealed minimal cladding-side FCCI (cladding wastage). In contrast, significantly thicker cladding wastage comprising two distinct sublayers was observed in samples from the thermally hot MFF-3 pin 193045 and MFF-5 pin 195011 where the TICT ranged from 610-635°C. SSMT indicated complete embrittlement in the sublayer adjacent to the fuel and a tendency toward embrittlement in the other sublayer. Additionally, a new machine learning method was developed, validated, and used to quantify cladding wastage thickness. The machine learning method reliably predicted the wastage thickness across various fuel pins and sample cross-sections. Furthermore, the available cladding wastage data from HT9/U-10Zr fuel system demonstrated a strong temperature dependency. However, the dataset remains small, and ongoing research activities are essential to further understand the FCCI phenomenon and develop a reliable FCCI model for enhanced fuel performance simulation under various conditions.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Backup power or bill savings? How electricity tariffs impact residential solar-plus-storage usage in the United States

Adoption of paired solar-plus-storage systems has accelerated in recent years, driven by both the demand for backup power and a desire to manage utility bills. Tradeoffs between those two uses can arise through the reserve setting on the battery storage system, which serves to maintain a minimum state of charge in case of a power interruption. Our paper applies an economic framework to evaluate this tradeoff in terms of changes in bill savings and customer reliability value across reserve levels, considering how those tradeoffs depend on the underlying electricity rate structure and levels. The analysis is based on a representative set of load profiles, solar profiles, tariff designs, and stochastic power interruption events across ten different regions in the United States. We find that the opportunity cost of holding storage capacity in reserve, in terms of foregone bill reductions, outweighs any gains in reliability value from mitigated power interruptions in the majority of customer situations. Higher storage reserve levels increase total customer value only in specific circumstances, such as for customers with inferior reliability (10x average interruptions), with a very high value of lost load ($50/kWh), and with tariff or interconnection rules that disallow grid charging. However, even this result is dampened when considering tariff designs with higher price differentials that increase the opportunity cost of holding storage in reserve (e.g. import/export or time-of-use rates). Allowing grid charging in tariffs essentially eliminates the necessity to hold any storage in reserve in all sensitivity cases explored.

Electric resilience↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing and Exploring Untapped Micro-Hydro Hybrid Systems: a Multi-Objective Approach for Crystal Lake as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution

Increasing electricity demand and concerns about climate change and fossil fuel consumption have highlighted the importance of renewable energy resources and storage systems. This paper proposes a method for exploring untapped pumped hydro storage potentials to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation profiles. Hourly measured data from 2022 in Benzie County, Michigan, United States, were gathered for system sizing and a thorough, realistic analysis. By employing the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm, we formulated optimal sizing and energy-management strategies for three different scenarios. Unlike similar studies, the 3rd with triple objective functions (OFs) scenario aims to maximize both reliability and ecological OFs while minimizing the cost OF. It has shown promising results with multiple solutions, considering economic, environmental, and reliability factors. A case study conducted in Crystal Lake, Michigan, revealed that although Crystal Lake would function only as a micro-hydro power facility, it is a promising and huge storage unit with a substantial storage capacity of around 14.9734GWh. The system investigated is significant in the USA due to its rapid deployment capabilities, minimal construction requirements, and ease of integration with the distribution grid. The fuzzy logic method was employed to identify the best non-dominant solution among the other solutions. Furthermore, these outcomes include a notably low levelized cost of energy at 0.046147$/kWh, a robust index of reliability of 99.705%, and a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions amounting to 7.9142×10 3 tons/year, when considering the triple OFs. The paper’s methodology provides valuable insights for regions aiming to utilize renewable energy from untapped storage sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Quantum Mechanical, Molecular Mechanical, and Machine Learning Potential for Computing Aqueous-Phase Adsorption Free Energies on Metal Surfaces

Performing reliable computer simulations of elementary processes occurring at metal–water interfaces is pivotal for novel catalyst design in sustainable energy applications. Computational catalyst design hinges on the ability to reliably and efficiently compute the potential energy surface (PES) of the system. Here, due to the large system sizes needed for studying processes at liquid water–metal interfaces, these systems can currently not be described using density functional theory (DFT). In this work, we used a hybrid quantum mechanical, molecular mechanical, and machine learning potential for studying the adsorption behavior of phenol, atomic hydrogen, 2-butanol, and 2-butanone on the (0001) facet of Ru under reducing conditions when Ru is not oxidized. Specifically, we describe the adsorbate and the surrounding metal atoms at the DFT level of theory. Here, we also considered the electrostatic field effect of the water molecules on adsorbate–metal interactions. Next, for the water–water and water–adsorbate interactions, we used established classical force fields. Finally, for the water–Ru surface interaction, for which no reliable force fields have been published, we used Behler–Parrinello high-dimensional neural network potentials (HDNNPs). Employing this setup, we used our explicit solvation for metal surface (eSMS) approach to compute the aqueous-phase effect on the low-coverage adsorption of selected molecules and atoms on the (0001) facet of Ru. In agreement with previous experimental and computational studies of oxygenated molecules over transition metal facets, we found that liquid water destabilizes the tested adsorbates on Ru(0001). Interestingly, our findings indicate that adsorbates on Ru are less affected by the presence of an aqueous phase than on other transition metals (e.g., Pt), highlighting the necessity of experimental investigations of Ru-based catalytic systems in liquid water.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ab Initio Modeling of Aqueous Methanol Mixtures at DFT-SCAN Level Using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Abstract Methanol–water mixtures find use in many applications, particularly catalytic energy conversion processes. Their importance has motivated numerous computational studies, most of which employed molecular dynamics based on classical force fields. These enable simulations of large systems on long time scales but do not reliably describe reactive dynamics involving bond breaking and bond formation. In contrast, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) based on density functional theory (DFT) is generally more reliable for such applications but has a high computational cost, which discourages systematic studies of alcohol-water mixtures. To remedy this, we trained a machine learning interatomic potential capable of probing the properties of aqueous methanol mixtures at the DFT level using the SCAN functional. Our results show that SCAN qualitatively reproduces multiple key experimental features arising from the amphiphilic nature of methanol, including density, diffusion coefficients, X-ray structure factors, and Kirkwood–Buff integrals. We also find that structural correlations between water molecules are somewhat overestimated, leading to a stronger preferential association than that predicted by experiments. However, increasing the temperature by 30 K mitigates this effect and also recovers the correct mobilities of both methanol and water. These results indicate that SCAN provides an accurate description of methanol–water mixtures, making it a reliable choice for investigating the reactive dynamics in such systems.

Park, Sanghyun J. [Princeton University , , , ,]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-Sensing Composites via an Embedded 3D-Printed PVDF-MoS 2 Nanosensor for Structural Health Monitoring

Carbon fiber (CF)-reinforced epoxy composites are widely used in vehicle applications, where early damage detection is crucial for reliability and safety. To address this need, we developed a self-sensing epoxy/CF composite by embedding a PVDF-MoS 2 nanosensor via an embedded 3D printing method. By harnessing the intrinsic curing kinetics of epoxy, we tailored its rheological properties to optimize the embedded printing process, enabling precise and reliable support for sensor filaments without compromising the composite’s structural and functional integrity. Through comprehensive rheological and kinetic analysis, we established a quantitative relationship among curing temperature, conversion rate, and resulting yield modulus─defining a narrow processing window essential for successful sensor integration. Specifically, we identified that an epoxy yield modulus range of 180–294 Pa and a conversion rate below 10% are critical to support the PVDF-MoS 2 filament architecture. Here, this embedded 3D printing method produces complex and multimaterial PVDF-MoS 2 sensors within an epoxy matrix with minimal deformation and reduced postprocessing, which is scalable and adaptable for industrial applications. Under cyclic loading, the embedded sensors exhibited stable signals under constant loads and increased voltage signals in response to crack formation (17–35% higher) and catastrophic failure (1 order of magnitude higher), effectively capturing structural changes in real time. This study demonstrates the potential of PVDF-MoS 2 nanocomposite sensor materials for real-time structural health monitoring in epoxy–CF composite systems, enabling early detection of defects and stress anomalies, significantly reducing the risk of unexpected failures, and enhancing structural reliability.

PVDF-MoS2 sensor↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Functional protein mining with conformal guarantees

Molecular structure prediction and homology detection offer promising paths to discovering protein function and evolutionary relationships. However, current approaches lack statistical reliability assurances, limiting their practical utility for selecting proteins for further experimental and in-silico characterization. To address this challenge, we introduce a statistically principled approach to protein search leveraging principles from conformal prediction, offering a framework that ensures statistical guarantees with user-specified risk and provides calibrated probabilities (rather than raw ML scores) for any protein search model. Our method (1) lets users select many biologically-relevant loss metrics (i.e. false discovery rate) and assigns reliable functional probabilities for annotating genes of unknown function; (2) achieves state-of-the-art performance in enzyme classification without training new models; and (3) robustly and rapidly pre-filters proteins for computationally intensive structural alignment algorithms. Our framework enhances the reliability of protein homology detection and enables the discovery of uncharacterized proteins with likely desirable functional properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the interplay between distributed wind generators and solar photovoltaic systems

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind and solar energy generation across the continental United States, focusing on energy availability, reliability, variability, and cooperation. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyze the performance of wind turbines and photovoltaic systems, revealing distinct patterns in energy production and reliability. The classification of wind and solar zones based on energy availability and reliability provides valuable insights for renewable energy planning and grid integration strategies. Overall, this methodology contributes to understanding wind and solar interactions, which will lead to informing effective renewable energy deployment and grid integration efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reproducibility of fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo across diverse community codes: The case of water–methane dimer

Fixed-node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) is a widely trusted many-body method for solving the Schrödinger equation, known for its reliable predictions of material and molecular properties. Furthermore, its excellent scalability with system complexity and near-perfect utilization of computational power make FN-DMC ideally positioned to leverage new advances in computing to address increasingly complex scientific problems. Even though the method is widely used as a computational gold standard, reproducibility across the numerous FN-DMC code implementations has yet to be demonstrated. This difficulty stems from the diverse array of DMC algorithms and trial wave functions, compounded by the method’s inherent stochastic nature. Here, this study represents a community-wide effort to assess the reproducibility of the method, affirming that yes, FN-DMC is reproducible (when handled with care). Using the water–methane dimer as the canonical test case, we compare results from eleven different FN-DMC codes and show that the approximations to treat the non-locality of pseudopotentials are the primary source of the discrepancies between them. In particular, we demonstrate that, for the same choice of determinantal component in the trial wave function, reliable and reproducible predictions can be achieved by employing the T-move, the determinant locality approximation, or the determinant T-move schemes, while the older locality approximation leads to considerable variability in results. These findings demonstrate that, with appropriate choices of algorithmic details, fixed-node DMC is reproducible across diverse community codes—highlighting the maturity and robustness of the method as a tool for open and reliable computational science.

Della Pia, Flaviano [Univ. of Cambridge (United Ki↗

DOE OSTI2026

Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗