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NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

2014 Space Human Factors Engineering Standing Review Panel

The 2014 Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) participated in a WebEx/teleconference with members of the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) Element, representatives from the Human Research Program (HRP), the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI), and NASA Headquarters on November 17, 2014 (list of participants is in Section XI of this report). The SRP reviewed the updated research plans for the Risk of Incompatible Vehicle/Habitat Design (HAB Risk) and the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies (Train Risk). The SRP also received a status update on the Risk of Inadequate Critical Task Design (Task Risk), the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI Risk), and the Risk of Inadequate Human-Computer Interaction (HCI Risk).

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2014

2014 Bone and Muscle Risks Standing Review Panel

The 2014 Bone and Muscle Risks Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 17 - 18, 2014. The SRP reviewed the updated research plans for the Risk of Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength and Endurance (Muscle Risk) and the Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity (Aerobic Risk). The SRP also received a status update on the Risk of Bone Fracture (Bone Risk), the Risk of Early Onset Osteoporosis Due To Spaceflight (Osteo Risk), the Risk of Intervertebral Disc Damage (IVD Risk), and the Risk of Renal Stone Formation (Renal Risk).

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2015

2014 Behavioral Health and Performance Standing Review Panel

The 2014 Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 17 - 18, 2014. The SRP reviewed the updated research plan for the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Fatigue Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, Extended Wakefulness, and Work Overload (Sleep Risk) and also received a status update on the Risk of Adverse Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders (BMed Risk) and the Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (Team Risk).

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Status of 3D Ice Shape Measurement Effort

(1) Main goal of the Airframe Icing Technical Challenge is to achieve acceptance of experimental and computational icing simulation tools -SupercooledLarge Droplet Icing (SLD) conditions -3D airframe components including swept wings; (2) It is necessary to develop suitable means of recording and archiving fully 3D descriptions of experimental ice accretion geometry; (3) Past research has shown that commercial laser scanners have the potential to be adapted to this task; and (4) A research plan has been developed to implement and validate the use of this technology for experimental ice accretions.

Lee, Sam↗
NASA NTRS2016

Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

Mindock, J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

2015 Advanced Environmental Health/Advanced Food Technology Standing Review Panel

The 2015 Advanced Environmental Health/Advanced Food Technology (AEH/AFT) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 14 - 15, 2015. The SRP met with representatives from the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) Element and members of the Human Research Program (HRP) to review the updated research plans for the Risk of Adverse Health Effects Due to Host-Microorganism Interactions (MicroHost Risk) and the Risk of Performance Decrement and Crew Illness due to an Inadequate Food System (Food Risk). During the meeting, the SRP also met with the vehicle engineers to discuss possible food storage options. The SRP would like to commend Dr. Oubre and Dr. Douglas for their detailed presentations, as well the frank, refreshing, and comprehensive engineering presentation. This gave much needed perspective to the food storage issues and reassured the committee about NASA's approach to the problem. In terms of critiques, the SRP remains unconvinced about the rationale for probiotic use other than for specific applications supported by the literature. It is not clear what gap or problem is being addressed by the use of probiotics, and the rationale for their use needs to be clearly rooted in the available literature. The SRP thinks that if low-Earth orbit is associated with immune system impairment, then there may additional risks linked with the use of probiotics. It is not clear to the SRP how NASA will determine if probiotics are having their intended beneficial effect. A similar concern is raised as to what gaps or problems are being addressed by "functional foods". Mixed infections, rather than single species infections, which can augment severity of disease, also represent a significant concern. Overall, the SRP considers this to be a strong program that is well-organized, well-coordinated and generates valuable data.

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2015

2015 Space Human Factors Engineering Standing Review Panel

The 2015 Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 2 - 3, 2015. The SRP reviewed the updated research plans for the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI Risk), the Risk of Inadequate Human-Computer Interaction (HCI Risk), and the Risk of Inadequate Mission, Process and Task Design (MPTask Risk). The SRP also received a status update on the Risk of Incompatible Vehicle/Habitat Design (Hab Risk) and the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies (Train Risk). The SRP is pleased with the progress and responsiveness of the SHFE team. The presentations were much improved this year. The SRP is also pleased with the human-centered design approach. Below are some of the more extensive comments from the SRP. We have also made comments in each section concerning gaps/tasks in each. The comments below reflect more significant changes that impact more than just one particular section.

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2015

2015 Dust Risk Standing Review Panel

The 2015 Dust Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) participated in a WebEx/teleconference with members of the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) Element, representatives from the Human Research Program (HRP), NASA Headquarters, and the NASA Research Education and Support Services on November 12, 2015. The SRP reviewed the updated Evidence Report for The Risk of Adverse Health and Performance Effects of Celestial Dust Exposure, as well as the Research Plan for this Risk.

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Research Program: Long Duration, Exploration-Class Mission Training Design

This is a presentation to the International Training Control Board that oversees astronaut training for ISS. The presentation explains the structure of HRP, the training-related work happening under the different program elements, and discusses in detail the research plan for the Training Risk under SHFHSHFE. The group includes the crew training leads for all the space agencies involved in ISS: Japan, Europe, Russia, Canada, and the US.

crew training↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating the Subjective Straight Ahead Before and After Spaceflight

Introduction. This joint European Space Agency/NASA pre- and post-flight study investigates the influence of exposure to microgravity on the subjective straight ahead (SSA) in crewmembers returning from long-duration expeditions to the International Space Station (ISS). The SSA is a measure of the internal representation of body orientation and to be influenced by stimulation of sensory systems involved in postural control. The use of a vibrotactile sensory aid to correct the representation of body tilted relative to gravity is also tested as a countermeasure. This study addresses the sensorimotor research gap to "determine the changes in sensorimotor function over the course of a mission and during recovery after landing." Research Plans. The ISS study will involve eight crewmembers who will participate in three pre-flight sessions (between 120 and 60 days before launch) and then three post-flight sessions on R plus 0/1 day, R plus 4 days, and R plus 8 days. Sixteen control subjects were also tested during three sessions to evaluate the effects of repeated testing and to establish normative values. The experimental protocol includes measurements of gaze and arm movements during the following tasks: (1) Near & Far Fixation: The subject is asked to look at actual targets in the true straight-ahead direction or to imagine these targets in the dark. Targets are located at near distance (arm's length) and far distance (beyond 2 meters). This task is successively performed with the subject's body aligned with the gravitational vertical, and with the subject's body tilted in pitch relative to the gravitational vertical using a tilt chair. Measures are then compared with and without a vibrotactile sensory aid that indicates how far one has tilted relative to the vertical; (2) Eye and Arm Movements: The subject is asked to look and point in the SSA direction in darkness and then make horizontal and vertical eye or arm movements, relative to Earth coordinates (allocentric) and to the subject's head/body reference (egocentric). This task is successively performed with the subject's body aligned with the gravitational vertical, and with subject's body tilted in roll using a tilt chair; (3) Linear Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex: The subject is asked to fixate actual visual targets at near and far distances in the true straight-ahead direction, and to evaluate the distance of these targets. The subject is asked to continue fixating the same imagined targets in darkness while he/she is passively accelerated up and down on a spring-loaded vertical linear accelerator. Results. In the control subject population, the perceived tilt angles, translations, and distances were remarkably close to the actual values. The pointing tasks indicated that the orientation of arm saccades was influenced by both the gravitational vertical and the body idiotropic vector. Repeating the testing did not reveal any significant changes. Preliminary results obtained in three crewmembers before and after flight will also be presented. Applications. A change in an individual's egocentric reference might have negative consequences on evaluating the direction of an approaching object or on the accuracy of reaching movements or locomotion. Consequently, investigating how microgravity affects the target location will have theoretical, operational, and even clinical implications for future space exploration missions. The use of vibrotactile feedback as a sensorimotor countermeasure is applicable to balance therapy applications for patients with vestibular loss and the elderly to mitigate risks due to loss of spatial orientation.

Campbell, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Radiation Impact on Pharmaceutical Stability: Retrospective Data Review

Historical studies performed by the JSC Pharmacotherapeutics Discipline suggest that exposure to spaceflight conditions may compromise the safety and efficacy of some medications. Follow-on studies have revealed that affected medications demonstrate reductions in active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) concentrations and altered release characteristics. It was hypothesized that the changes in API potency and release were from the medication's exposure to the harsh environmental conditions of spaceflight. Subsequent review of the spaceflight environmental control records from the time of these studies indicated that temperature and humidity levels aboard all spacecraft remained within United States Pharmacopeia (USP) recommended ranges to maintain optimal pharmaceutical stability. Therefore, space radiation was presumed to be the source of observed drug degradation. The Pharmacotherapeutics Discipline conducted a ground analog radiation experiment in 2006 at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven to validate this theory and to characterize the effects of high-energy radioactive particles on pharmaceutical stability. These data were never published. Recently, the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element finalized a research plan (RP) aimed at providing a safe and effective medication formulary for exploration spaceflight. As ExMC begins to design new flight and ground analog radiation studies, further analysis of the 2006 NSRL study data is essential for the characterization of the impact of radiation on medication potency and efficacy in the exploration spaceflight environment.

Daniels, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗
NASA NTRS2017

Future Exploration Missions' Tasks Associated with the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) funds research efforts aimed at mitigating various human health and performance risks, including the Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI). As such, within HRP, the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance (HFBP) Element tasked an evaluation of future HARI needs in order to scope and focus the HARI risk research plan. The objective was to provide a systematic understanding of the critical factors associated with effective HARI that will be necessary to achieve the future mission goals for near- and deep-space exploration. Future mission goals are specified by NASA Design Reference Missions (DRMs) that are pertinent to the HRP. The outcome of this evaluation is a set of NASA-relevant HARI tasks, factors, and interactions required for exploration-class missions.

space operations↗
NASA NTRS2013

Solar System Escape Architecture for Revolutionary Science

Our most distance spacecraft, Voyager 1 and Voyager 2, recently reached the boundary of the solar system known as the Heliopause. Beyond this boundary lies interstellar space, and, at tremendous distance, the stars. The Voyager spacecraft have shown us that the Heliopause is a dynamic, rapidly changing environment, varying greatly as the fields and effects emanating from the sun are met by a host of forces pushing in from our nearby galactic neighborhood. This is the region we aim to explore. Specifically we aim to develop a mission architecture and spacecraft concept capable of reaching the Heliopause (approximately100 AU (Astronomical Units)) region in multiple directions of interest, with a variety of scientific instrument suites, within a reasonable timeframe (about 15 years.) This report details our Phase 1 work including science goal definition, trajectory planning, technology research, mission planning, instrument selection, spacecraft design, and more. We present an architecture employing a 250-meter by 250-meter solar sail with a 175 kilogram spacecraft. This spacecraft could carry a variety of instrument suites depending on the destination, time, and other factors. The spin-stabilized spacecraft would powered by a small radioisotope power system (about 20 watts), makes use of an optical communication system, and carries 3 extensible booms for instrument accommodation as visible in the sketch and rendering below. We conclude that it would be reasonable to implement the architecture described herein in the 2020-2030 timeframe based on likely near-term technological and material advances. We are confident that cruise times of around 15 years could be achieved to science-rich destinations. This report details the approach we used to come to these conclusions and identifies some of the steps along the way. We utilized a variety of methodologies involving our full capability at JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) - from small point studies to large collaborative engineering processes. This paper also describes potential industry partnerships and costing information, and includes the methods used to account for our project’s significant deviation from any prior mission in the NASA costing tool database. Outreach and public engagement is an important part of NASA activities. We engaged in several different forms of this outreach and describe them in this report. We conclude with some open questions and a summary of activities we hope to engage in with Phase 2 funding. The entire team would like to thank the NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) program for the opportunity to investigate this fascinating and challenging concept. The Voyager program gives us tantalizing clues as to the nature and behavior of the Heliopause – the boundary between the sun’s influence and the interstellar medium. This information comes from forty-year old instruments designed to study the outer planets. A targeted Heliopause investigation would give insight into the formation of the solar system, the role of the sun in the local interstellar neighborhood, and contribute to human exploration planning by helping to predict periods of low galactic cosmic ray (GCR) penetration into the inner solar system.

Spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS2019

Advanced Colloids Experiment (Temperature Controlled) - ACE-T10

Increment 59-60 Science Symposium presentation of Advanced Colloids Experiment (ACE-T10) (by GRC (Glenn Research Center) to the RPO-JSC (Research Planning Office-Johnson Space Center), via WebEx. The purpose of this event is for Principal Investigators to present their science objectives, testing approach, and measurement methods to agency scientists, managers, and other investigators.

Confocal Microscopy↗
NASA NTRS2019

Advanced Colloids Experiment (Temperature Controlled) – ACE-T10

Increment 59-60 Science Symposium presentation of Advanced Colloids Experiment (ACE-T10) (by GRC (Glenn Research Center) to the RPO-JSC (Research Planning Office-Johnson Space Center), via WebEx. The purpose of this event is for Principal Investigators to present their science objectives, testing approach, and measurement methods to agency scientists, managers, and other investigators.

Meyer, William V.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Creepy (not KREEPy) Gold-Indium Intermetallic Compounds on Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry Samples

A series of Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) sessions to measure hydrogen (H) in Martian meteorite minerals was completed using the Cameca 6f SIMS and NanoSIMS 50L at Arizona State University (ASU). During these sessions, a “creeping” phenomenon has occurred, where the edges of samples pressed in indium are covered by a metal alloy. We summarize these observations herein, present a collection of preliminary data, and discuss explanations and concerns for future SIMS work. We conclude the report with a research plan for further study.

Dudley, J. M.↗