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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated System Planning: Emerging Software Requirements in the Power Industry

Power system planning software remains fragmented across organizational boundaries, with specialized tools for capacity expansion, production cost modeling, power flow, and dynamic analysis operating on incompatible data models and assumptions. This article argues that the fragmentation is not merely a technical problem but a predictable consequence of Conway's law: software architectures mirror the departmental structures within which they are developed. Regulatory milestones like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 888 formalized these divisions, but the roots trace back to the distinct engineering disciplines-mechanical, chemical, and electrical-that staffed generation and transmission planning departments in vertically integrated utilities. As the industry moves toward integrated system planning (ISP) that coordinates generation, transmission, and distribution investment decisions, the software ecosystem must evolve accordingly. We identify five categories of software requirements to enable this transition: coherent data inputs decoupled from individual applications, unified and extensible data schemas, modular component representations that support multiple abstraction levels, lifecycle management of planning datasets, and well-defined application programming interface (API) contracts that separate data exchange from algorithmic control. We examine how these requirements interact with three common workflow patterns-serial gate clearing, sequential multiapplication, and convergence oriented-and discuss the interface design principles each demands. We then outline a vision for platform-based planning architectures where specialized analytical services compose through standardized interfaces and where artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) tools augment decision support within a disciplined software infrastructure. The practices proposed here offer a path from today's siloed tool collections toward collaborative planning ecosystems capable of handling the complexity of modern power system transformation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geostrophic to magnetically-damped turbulence in liquid metal rotating magnetoconvection

Understanding planetary core convection dynamics requires the study of convective flows in which the Coriolis and Lorentz forces attain a leading-order, so-called magnetostrophic balance. Experimental investigations of rotating magnetoconvection (RMC) in the magnetostrophic regime are therefore essential to broadly characterize the properties of local-scale planetary core flow. Toward this end, we present here the first thermovelocimetric measurements of magnetostrophic, liquid metal convection, which are made using liquid gallium as the working fluid, at moderate rotation rates (Ekman numbers 10 -4 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 -5 ) and in the presence of dynamically strong magnetic fields (Elsasser number Λ = 1). Complementary rotating convection (RC) experiments are performed at the same rotation rates to serve as reference cases. Our RMC velocity measurements adequately follow a geostrophic turbulent scaling for cases in which local-scale convective inertial forces exceed the Lorentz forces in the fluid bulk. In cases where Lorentz forces exceed local-scale inertia (local or convective interaction parameter N ℓ or N C ≳ 3), the root-mean-square RMC velocities are magnetically damped, yielding values below the geostrophic turbulent RC scaling prediction. An enhancement in heat transfer is observed, which we attribute to the increased coherence of vertically aligned magnetostrophic convective flow. Finally, our results and comparisons to dynamo simulations suggest that the system is in the strong-field regime, where convection-scale flows are magnetically damped with N C ≳ 3).

Convective turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of three DWM-based wake models at above-rated wind speeds

In this study we investigate three mid-fidelity wind turbine wake models based on the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model principle, and compare their performance with a reference dataset, produced with large-eddy simulations using the actuator line model. The models are compared with respect to flow field, power, and loads on a row of four 5MW reference turbines experiencing above-rated wind conditions. In general, the DWM models show fairly good agreement with large-eddy simulation for the time-averaged flow fields, blade forces and power, with increasing differences along the turbine row. Also when comparing fatigue loads of blade root moments, the differences between the models increase further into the row, with deviations up to 25 % of the reference case. However, while the development in blade root moment fatigue along the turbine row is predominantly driven by the energy content at the frequency corresponding to the turbine's rotational period (1 P ) for the DWM models, the large-eddy simulation results suggest that the key drivers for the blade root and tower loads are the increase in meandering and energy at higher frequencies (> 1 P ) deeper into the turbine row. For the tower loads, the DWM models highly underestimate the fatigue for the waked turbines. From these results, we suggest priorities for future model developments so that robust model implementations can be used in wind farm design and operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking seasonal variability in plant traits from spaceborne PRISMA and NEON AOP across forest types and ecoregions

Plant traits serve as critical indicators of how plants adapt to environmental changes and influence ecosystem functions. While airborne hyperspectral remote sensing effectively maps plant traits through detailed reflectance properties, it is limited by cost and scale, making large-scale and temporal studies challenging. The recently launched spaceborne hyperspectral imager, PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), offers frequent, large scale and high-fidelity observations on a spatial resolution of 30 m and a revisit time of around 29 days, making it suitable for large-scale seasonal trait mapping. However, their potential remains largely unexplored. This study developed a multi-stage framework by leveraging the PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) hyperspectral data to investigate the seasonal dynamics of four key plant traits — chlorophyll content, carotenoid content, equivalent water thickness, and nitrogen content — across eleven NEON sites representing diverse forest types and ecoregions in the contiguous U.S. Our results demonstrated that PRISMA hyperspectral data can reliably track seasonal variability in plant traits, achieving overall R 2 values ranging from 0.78 to 0.88 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values ranging from 5.4% to 8.4% for the four traits. Seasonal patterns revealed bell-shaped trajectories for chlorophyll and carotenoids, while equivalent water thickness decreased steadily across most sites, driven by structural changes during leaf maturation and senescence. Nitrogen content exhibited less pronounced seasonal variation but followed expected nutrient resorption patterns. Analysis of environmental drivers showed that seasonal variability is primarily controlled by solar radiation and day length in northern sites, vapor pressure in semi-arid regions, and temperature in mid-southeastern sites. Spatial variability, meanwhile, was primarily driven by soil properties, particularly during the peak growing season. However, the influence of soil variables slightly declines toward the end of the season at several sites, as climatic factors become more prominent. This study highlights the capability of PRISMA, and potentially other similar spaceborne hyperspectral data for large-scale, time-series plant trait mapping and provides valuable insights into the interactions between plant traits and environmental factors. In conclusion, these findings contribute to advancing our understanding of plant functional ecology and improving predictions of ecosystem responses to environmental changes.

Environmental drivers↗
DOE OSTI2022

Programmable soft valves for digital and analog control

In soft devices, complex actuation sequences and precise force control typically require hard electronic valves and microcontrollers. Existing designs for entirely soft pneumatic control systems are capable of either digital or analog operation, but not both, and are limited by speed of actuation, range of pressure, time required for fabrication, or loss of power through pull-down resistors. Using the nonlinear mechanics intrinsic to structures composed of soft materials—in this case, by leveraging membrane inversion and tube kinking—two modular soft components are developed: a piston actuator and a bistable pneumatic switch. These two components combine to create valves capable of analog pressure regulation, simplified digital logic, controlled oscillation, nonvolatile memory storage, linear actuation, and interfacing with human users in both digital and analog formats. Three demonstrations showcase the capabilities of systems constructed from these valves: 1) a wearable glove capable of analog control of a soft artificial robotic hand based on input from a human user’s fingers, 2) a human-controlled cushion matrix designed for use in medical care, and 3) an untethered robot which travels a distance dynamically programmed at the time of operation to retrieve an object. This work illustrates pathways for complementary digital and analog control of soft robots using a unified valve design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computing the viscous effect in early-time drop impact dynamics

The impact of a liquid drop on a solid surface involves many intertwined physical effects, and is influenced by drop velocity, surface tension, ambient pressure and liquid viscosity, among others. Experiments by Kolinski et al. ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 112, no. 13, 2014 b , p. 134501) show that the liquid–air interface begins to deviate away from the solid surface even before contact. They found that the lift-off of the interface starts at a critical time that scales with the square root of the kinematic viscosity of the liquid. To understand this, we study the approach of a liquid drop towards a solid surface in the presence of an intervening gas layer. We take a numerical approach to solve the Navier–Stokes equations for the liquid, coupled to the compressible lubrication equations for the gas, in two dimensions. With this approach, we recover the experimentally captured early time effect of liquid viscosity on the drop impact, but our results show that lift-off time and liquid kinematic viscosity have a more complex dependence than the square-root scaling relationship. We also predict the effect of interfacial tension at the liquid–gas interface on the drop impact, showing that it mediates the lift-off behaviour.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part I: Model Description and Thermal Properties

We present the GFDL‐CM4X (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 4X) coupled climate model hierarchy. The primary application for CM4X is to investigate ocean and sea ice physics as part of a realistic coupled Earth climate model. CM4X utilizes an updated MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) ocean physics package relative to CM4.0, and there are two members of the hierarchy: one that uses a horizontal grid spacing of 0.25° (referred to as CM4X‐p25) and the other that uses a grid 0.125° (CM4X‐p125). CM4X also refines its atmospheric grid from the nominally 100 km (cubed sphere C96) of CM4.0–50 km (C192). Finally, CM4X simplifies the land model to allow for a more focused study of the role of ocean changes to global mean climate. CM4X‐p125 reaches a global ocean area mean heat flux imbalance of -0.02 W m -2 within $\mathcal{O}$ (150) years in a pre‐industrial simulation, and retains that thermally equilibrated state over the subsequent centuries. This 1850 thermal equilibrium is characterized by roughly 400 ZJ less ocean heat than present‐day, which corresponds to estimates for anthropogenic ocean heat uptake between 1870 and present‐day. CM4X‐p25 approaches its thermal equilibrium only after more than 1000 years, at which time its ocean has roughly 1100 ZJ more heat than its early 21st century ocean initial state. Furthermore, the root‐mean‐square sea surface temperature bias for historical simulations is roughly 20% smaller in CM4X‐p125 relative to CM4X‐p25 (and CM4.0). We offer the mesoscale dominance hypothesis for why CM4X‐p125 shows such favorable thermal equilibration properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of hydration energies of adsorbates at Pt(111) and liquid water interfaces using machine learning

Aqueous phase heterogeneous catalysis is important to various industrial processes, including biomass conversion, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and electrocatalysis. Accurate calculation of solvation thermodynamic properties is essential for modeling the performance of catalysts for these processes. Explicit solvation methods employing multiscale modeling, e.g., involving density functional theory and molecular dynamics have emerged for this purpose. Although accurate, these methods are computationally intensive. This study introduces machine learning (ML) models to predict solvation thermodynamics for adsorbates on a Pt(111) surface, aiming to enhance computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. In particular, ML models are developed using a combination of molecular descriptors and fingerprints and trained on previously published water–adsorbate interaction energies, energies of solvation, and free energies of solvation of adsorbates bound to Pt(111). These models achieve root mean square error values of 0.09 eV for interaction energies, 0.04 eV for energies of solvation, and 0.06 eV for free energies of solvation, demonstrating accuracy within the standard error of multiscale modeling. Feature importance analysis reveals that hydrogen bonding, van der Waals interactions, and solvent density, together with the properties of the adsorbate, are critical factors influencing solvation thermodynamics. Furthermore, these findings suggest that ML models can provide rapid and reliable predictions of solvation properties. This approach not only reduces computational costs but also offers insights into the solvation characteristics of adsorbates at Pt(111)–water interfaces.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison between explicit and implicit discretization strategies for a dissipative thermal environment

We investigate strategies for simulating open quantum systems coupled to dissipative baths by comparing explicit wave function-based discretization [via multi-layer multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH)] and the implicit density matrix-based master equation method [via tree tensor network hierarchical equations of motion (TTN-HEOM)]. For dissipative baths characterized by exponentially decaying bath correlation functions, the implicit discretization approach of HEOM—rooted in bath correlation function decompositions—proves significantly more efficient than explicit discretization of the bath into discrete harmonic modes. Explicit methods, like ML-MCTDH, require extensive mode discretization to approximate continuum baths, leading to computational bottlenecks. Case studies for two-level systems and a Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex model highlight TTN-HEOM’s superiority in capturing dissipative dynamics with relaxations with a minimal number of auxiliary modes, while the explicit methods are as exact as the HEOM in pure dephasing regimes. This comparison is enabled by the TENSO package, which has both ML-MCTDH and TTN-HEOM implemented using the same computational structure and propagation strategy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct observations of shock-induced melting in a porous solid using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

Here in this work we provide direct evidence of shock-induced melting and associated kinetics in a porous solid (aluminum powder) using time-resolved x-ray diffraction. Unambiguous evidence of melting in 50% porous aluminum (Al) powder samples, shocked to peak pressures between ~13 - 19 GPa, was provided by the broadening of the Debye-Scherrer ring corresponding to the (111) peak. Shocked Al powder did not melt completely in any of our experiments within the durations of measurement. Incomplete (partial) melting of the powder, even after several hundreds of nanoseconds of shock loading, provides insights into thermal transport with Al powder particles under high-pressure dynamic loading. Such insights are quite valuable for developing well-constrained melting models and thermodynamic equations of state for porous Al and other porous solids relevant to planetary and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hardware Fuzzing with An Emulator

Bugs in digital logic have led to some significant security vulnerabilities. Hardware bugs are particularly troublesome since they cannot be easily patched. Additionally, if the bug is in the root of trust, all trust built upon it can be vulnerable. Traditional testing either require a deep knowledge of the system, creative attack vectors and lots of human interaction. This is not scalable as there are very few engineers that can wear the hat of a designer, a verification engineer, and a cybersecurity expert. Hardware fuzzing is a relatively new research area in dynamic hardware testing. It has proven to be an effective method for discovering bugs, unexpected behaviors, and security vulnerabilities in software. While hardware fuzzing is new to the hardware domain, it has a strong track record in software testing. Fuzzing is a testing technique that randomly mutates the input data to uncover bugs or vulnerabilities in the design. It is especially good at finding corner cases that test engineers can not envision. Another advantage over other dynamic testing techniques is that, if done well, deep knowledge of the design is not required. Additionally, fuzzing scales well. If the system is set up correctly, it can run unsupervised for weeks if necessary. In this work, we propose using hardware fuzzing to improve the input vector generation for an information flow tracking tool. To get reasonable throughput of test vectors, an emulator is targeted as the execution platform. Efficient emulator execution has some specific requirements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atomic resolution convergent beam electron diffraction analysis using convolutional neural networks

Two types of convolutional neural network (CNN) models, a discrete classification network and a continuous regression network, were trained to determine local sample thickness from convergent beam diffraction (CBED) patterns of SrTiO 3 collected in a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) at atomic column resolution. Acquisition of atomic resolution CBED patterns for this purpose requires careful balancing of CBED feature size in pixels, acquisition speed, and detector dynamic range. The training datasets were derived from multislice simulations, which must be convolved with incoherent source broadening. Sample thicknesses were also determined using quantitative high-angle annular dark-field (HAADF) STEM images acquired simultaneously. The regression CNN performed well on sample thinner than 35 nm, with 70% of the CNN results within 1 nm of HAADF thickness, and 1.0 nm overall root mean square error between the two measurements. The classification CNN was trained for a thicknesses up to 100 nm and yielded 66% of CNN results within one classification increment of 2 nm of HAADF thickness. Our approach depends on methods from computer vision including transfer learning and image augmentation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Moisture Buffers the Impact of Precipitation Variability on Ecosystem Productivity

Water availability governs ecosystem productivity, yet estimates of vegetation sensitivity to water can differ greatly depending on whether the sensitivity is examined spatially or temporally. In particular, the spatial sensitivity is often reported to be much stronger than temporal sensitivities, leading to highly uncertain projections of ecosystem responses to future climate change when using space-for-time substitution. The large difference between spatial and temporal sensitivities remains unexplained. Prior research, however, primarily relied on precipitation as the water availability proxy, whereas vegetation responds to soil moisture. Here, we combined satellite estimates of vegetation productivity with soil moisture data across water-limited ecosystems of the continental United States (CONUS) to identify a convergent sensitivity of productivity to water availability. Using precipitation, we show that temporal sensitivity is 66% lower than spatial sensitivity overall. Our analysis identified the cause of the difference to be primarily driven by the seasonal variability of water availability, rooting depth, and soil properties. When using soil moisture instead of precipitation, we observed widespread convergence in the spatial and temporal sensitivities—that is, the two sensitivities became much more similar in magnitude across all water-limited ecosystems within CONUS. These results show that overlooking soil hydrology can inflate perceived discrepancies between spatial and temporal vegetation sensitivities, leading to biased projections of ecosystem dynamics under future hydro-climatic change.

Wang, Huiqi [University of California, Berkeley, C↗