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NASA NTRS1971

Bias and spread in EVT performance tests.

Performance tests (error probability measurements) of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high reliability requirements frequently utilize classical extreme value theory (EVT) to avoid the excessive test times encountered with bit error rate (BER) tests. If the underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian, the EVT error estimates have either excessive bias or excessive variance if an insufficient number of test samples is used. EVT is examined to explain the cause of this bias and spread. Experimental verification is made by testing a known Gaussian source, and procedures that minimize these effects are described. It seems apparent that even under the best of conditions the EVT test results are not particularly better than those of BER tests.

Smith, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1973

The redshift-magnitude relation for quasi-stellar objects.

It is shown that the best-fitting slope of the redshift-magnitude relation for the most luminous quasi-stellar object in each redshift range is 4.3 plus or minus 0.4. However, the steepness of this slope is due primarily to the lowest redshift range including 3C 273, without which it is 2.1 plus or minus 0.6. The slopes of the second and third brightest QSOs are 3.1 plus or minus 0.6 and 3.2 plus or minus 0.6, respectively, markedly less than the slope of 5 which is expected for a Friedmann universe with q(0) = +1. Although the departure of the slope from 5 mag per decade is statistically significant at about 95% confidence, due to the heterogeneity and incompleteness of the sample there may be a systematic selectional bias not accounted for either in this analysis or in that of Bahcall and Hills. Consequently, no definite pronouncement can be made until a complete sample of adequate size is examined.

Burbidge, G. R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The most luminous, merger-free AGNs show only marginal correlation with bar presence

The role of large-scale bars in the fuelling of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is still debated, even as evidence mounts that black hole growth in the absence of galaxy mergers cumulatively dominates and may substantially influence disc (i.e. merger-free) galaxy evolution. We investigate whether large-scale galactic bars are a good candidate for merger-free AGN fuelling. Specifically, we combine slit spectroscopy and Hubble Space Telescope imagery to characterize star formation rates (SFRs) and stellar masses of the unambiguously disc-dominated host galaxies of a sample of luminous, Type-1 AGN with 0.02 < z < 0.24. After carefully correcting for AGN signal, we find no clear difference in SFRs between AGN hosts and a stellar mass-matched sample of galaxies lacking an AGN (0.013 < z < 0.19), although this could be due to small sample size (nAGN = 34). We correct for SFR and stellar mass to minimize selection biases, and compare the bar fraction in the two samples. We find that AGNs are marginally (~1.7σ) more likely to host a bar than inactive galaxies, with AGN hosts having a bar fraction, $f_{\mathrm{bar}}=0.59^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$ and inactive galaxies having a bar fraction, $f_{\mathrm{bar}}=0.44^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$. However, we find no further differences between SFR- and mass-matched AGNs and inactive samples. While bars could potentially trigger AGN activity, they appear to have no further, unique effect on a galaxy’s stellar mass or SFR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2021

In Situ Mg/Ca Measurements on Foraminifera: Comparison Between Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry and Wavelength-Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy by Electron Probe Microanalyzer

We present a comparison of two different techniques: Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and wavelength-dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy by electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) for obtaining Mg/Ca ratios in individual foraminifera shells. The goal is to assess the use of EPMA as an alternative technique for Mg/Ca analyses of single foraminiferal calcite shells. Foraminifera obtained from sediments (benthic, Uvigerina spp.) and from plankton tows (planktonic, Orbulina universa) were analyzed. All specimens were prepared in epoxy mounts and exposed in cross-section such that multiple high-resolution analyses could be completed on the shells using both techniques. We examined our data using statistical methods designed for the assessment and comparison of measurement techniques. In the case of Uvigerina, the mean difference for ratios obtained using EPMA and LA-ICP-MS is very small (−0.046 mmol mol−1) and scale independent. The Limits of Agreement (LoA, the standard deviation of the bias plus the mean bias) is [−0.315, 0.223] mmol mol−1. For samples with ratios lower than 13 mmol mol−1, we found a mean EPMA–LA-ICP-MS bias of −2.44 mmol mol−1 and a corresponding LoA of [−3.85, −1.04] mmol mol−1. For ratios higher than 13 mmol mol−1, there appears to be a scale dependent bias, meaning that the EPMA measured ratios become progressively larger than those of LA-ICP-MS as the Mg/Ca ratio increases, so the mean bias and LoA metrics are not meaningful. Results indicate that it is possible to use EPMA to collect Mg/Ca data, if the ratios are lower than ∼13 mmol mol−1.

EPMA↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assembly bias and local Primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI DR1 quasars

The analysis of the large-scale clustering of quasars (QSO) observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) represents a promising avenue for constraining local Primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), parameterized by f NL . The signal to be constrained is the scale-dependent bias induced in the 2-point clustering of the considered tracer sample. The resulting constraints on f NL , however, are fully degenerate with the local PNG bias parameter b ϕ , dependent on the assembly bias parameter p. Using IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations, we select a QSO sample reflecting the selection criteria and properties of DESI QSOs, and provide a robust prior for p, and thus for b ϕ , building on the findings of Fondi et al. 2024. We find a distribution with mean p̅ ≃ 1.4 with weak redshift dependence, stable to selection noise and consistent with the expected recent merger history typical of quasar-hosting halos. By comparing with the CAMELS simulations we demonstrate that this prior is robust to astrophysical assumptions and cosmic variance. Finally, applying this prior to the DESI DR1 dataset, we derive updated constraints on local PNG, obtaining f NL = -3.3±9.2.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

NASA NTRS2002

SHEEP: The Search for the High Energy Extragalactic Population

We present the SHEEP survey for serendipitously-detected hard X-ray sources in ASCA GIS images. In a survey area of approx. 40 sq deg, 69 sources were detected in the 5-10 keV band to a limiting flux of approx. 10(exp -13) erg/sq cm/s. The number counts agree with those obtained by the similar BeppoSAX HELLAS survey, and both are in close agreement with ASCA and BeppoSAX 2-10 keV surveys. Spectral analysis of the SHEEP sample reveals that the 2-10 and 5-10 keV surveys do not sample the same populations, however, as we find considerably harder spectra, with an average Gamma approx. 1.0 assuming no absorption. The implication is that the agreement in the number counts is coincidental, with the 5-10 keV surveys gaining approximately as many hard sources as they lose soft ones, when compared to the 2-10 keV surveys. This is hard to reconcile with standard AGN "population synthesis" models for the X-ray background, which posit the existence of a large population of absorbed sources. We find no evidence of the population hardening at faint fluxes, with the exception that the few very brightest objects are anomalously soft. 53 of the SHEEP sources have been covered by ROSAT in the pointed phase. Of these 32 were detected. An additional 3 were detected in the RASS. As expected the sources detected with ROSAT are systematically softer than those detected with ASCA alone, and of the sample as a whole. Although they represent a biased subsample, the ROSAT positions allow relatively secure catalog identifications to be made. We find associations with a wide variety of AGN and a few clusters and groups. At least two X-ray sources identified with high-z QSOs present very hard X-ray spectra indicative of absorption, despite the presence of broad optical lines. A possible explanation for this is that we are seeing relatively dust-free "warm absorbers" in high luminosity/redshift objects. Our analysis defines a new, hard X-ray selected sample of objects - mostly active galactic nuclei - which is less prone to bias due to obscuration than previous optical or soft X-ray samples. They are therefore more representative of the population of AGN in the universe in general, and the SHEEP survey should produce bright examples of the sources that make up the hard X-ray background, the majority of which has recently been resolved by Chandra. This should help elucidate the nature of the new populations.

Nandra, K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Precision redshift-space galaxy power spectra using Zel'dovich control variates

Numerical simulations in cosmology require trade-offs between volume, resolution and run-time that limit the volume of the Universe that can be simulated, leading to sample variance in predictions of ensemble-average quantities such as the power spectrum or correlation function(s). Sample variance is particularly acute at large scales, which is also where analytic techniques can be highly reliable. This provides an opportunity to combine analytic and numerical techniques in a principled way to improve the dynamic range and reliability of predictions for clustering statistics. In this paper we extend the technique of Zel'dovich control variates, previously demonstrated for 2-point functions in real space, to reduce the sample variance in measurements of 2-point statistics of biased tracers in redshift space. We demonstrate that with this technique, we can reduce the sample variance of these statistics down to their shot-noise limit out to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 . This allows a better matching with perturbative models and improved predictions for the clustering of e.g. quasars, galaxies and neutral Hydrogen measured in spectroscopic redshift surveys at very modest computational expense. We discuss the implementation of ZCV, give some examples and provide forecasts for the efficacy of the method under various conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Implications of Whole-Disc DSCOVR EPIC Spectral Observations for Estimating Earth's Spectral Reflectivity Based on Low-Earth-Orbiting and Geostationary Observations

Earth's reflectivity is among the key parameters of climate research. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft provides spectral reflectance of the entire sunlit Earth in the near backscattering direction every 65 to 110 min. Unlike EPIC, sensors onboard the Earth Orbiting Satellites (EOS) sample reflectance over swaths at a specific local solar time (LST) or over a fixed area. Such intrinsic sampling limits result in an apparent Earth's reflectivity. We generated spectral reflectance over sampling areas using EPIC data. The difference between the EPIC and EOS estimates is an uncertainty in Earth's reflectivity. We developed an Earth Reflector Type Index (ERTI) to discriminate between major Earth atmosphere components: clouds, cloud-free ocean, bare and vegetated land. Temporal variations in Earth's reflectivity are mostly determined by clouds. The sampling area of EOS sensors may not be sufficient to represent cloud variability, resulting in biased estimates. Taking EPIC reflectivity as a reference, low-earth-orbiting-measurements at the sensor-specific LST tend to overestimate EPIC values by 0.8% to 8%. Biases in geostationary orbiting approximations due to a limited sampling area are between −0.7% and 12%. Analyses of ERTI-based Earth component reflectivity indicate that the disagreement between EPIC and EOS estimates depends on the sampling area, observation time and vary between −10% and 23%.

DSCOVR↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Exploration of Dipole Field Effects on Weak Hysteresis in 3D/2D Perovskites

This research delves into the effects of 2D layers on the functionality of 3D perovskite using lock-in amplifier-based in situ surface photovoltage (SPV) and its phase spectroscopy, with an emphasis on elucidating the connection between the tuning of dipole moments and the photocurrent hysteresis. Conventionally, the SPV of a perovskite/hole transport layer is observed to diminish as positive bias escalates. However, this trend is reversed in the case of 3D perovskite samples, where an augmentation in SPV is noted under positive bias. Notably, 3D/2D perovskite structures initially show a decrease, then an increase in SPV as bias intensifies, a phenomenon more pronounced with larger dipole moments in 2D. However, there is no linear relationship between the dipole moment and the hysteresis factor. Furthermore, using in situ light-chopping-frequency-modulated SPV and Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy, it is revealed that the dipole fields of 2D layers can hinder ion migration. This leads to efficient hole transfer and minimal photocurrent hysteresis in 3D/2D perovskites, providing strong evidence for the underlying cause of hysteresis. Additionally, these findings suggest intricate interplays among the external electric field, interface dipole moments, and surface photovoltaics, offering significant insights into perovskite optoelectronics.

3D/2D perovskite↗

NASA NTRS1993

Removing Malmquist bias from linear regressions

Malmquist bias is present in all astronomical surveys where sources are observed above an apparent brightness threshold. Those sources which can be detected at progressively larger distances are progressively more limited to the intrinsically luminous portion of the true distribution. This bias does not distort any of the measurements, but distorts the sample composition. We have developed the first treatment to correct for Malmquist bias in linear regressions of astronomical data. A demonstration of the corrected linear regression that is computed in four steps is presented.

Verter, Frances↗

NASA NTRS2000

Inception of Snapover and Gas Induced Glow Discharges

Ground based experiments of the snapover phenomenon were conducted in the large vertical simulation chamber at the Glenn Research Center (GRC) Plasma Interaction Facility (PIF). Two Penning sources provided both argon and xenon plasmas for the experiments. The sources were used to simulate a variety of ionospheric densities pertaining to a spacecraft in a Low Earth Orbital (LEO) environment. Secondary electron emission is believed responsible for dielectric surface charging, and all subsequent snapover phenomena observed. Voltage sweeps of conductor potentials versus collected current were recorded in order to examine the specific charging history of each sample. The average time constant for sample charging was estimated between 25 and 50 seconds for all samples. It appears that current drops off by approximately a factor of 3 over the charging time of the sample. All samples charged in the forward and reverse bias directions, demonstrated hysteresis. Current jumps were only observed in the forward or positive swept voltage direction. There is large dispersion in tile critical snapover potential when repeating sweeps on any one sample. The current ratio for the first snapover region jumps between 2 and 4.6 times, with a standard deviation less than 1.6. Two of the samples showed even larger current ratios. It is believed the second large snapover region is due to sample outgassing. Under certain preset conditions, namely at the higher neutral gas background pressures, a perceptible blue-green glow was observed around the conductor. The glow is believed to be a result of secondary electrons undergoing collisions with an expelled tenuous cloud of gas, that is outgassed from the sample. Spectroscopic measurements of the glow discharge were made in an attempt to identify specific lines contributing to the observed glow.

Galofaro, J. T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-redshift millennium and astrid galaxies in effective field theory at the field level

Effective field theory (EFT) modeling is expected to be a useful tool in the era of future higher-redshift galaxy surveys such as DESI-II and Spec-S5 due to its robust description of various large-scale structure tracers. However, large values of EFT bias parameters of higher-redshift galaxies could jeopardize the convergence of the perturbative expansion. Here, in this paper we measure the bias parameters and other EFT coefficients from samples of two types of star-forming galaxies in the state-of-the-art MilleniumTNG and astrid hydrodynamical simulations. Our measurements are based on the field-level EFT forward model that allows for precision EFT parameter measurements by virtue of cosmic variance cancellation. Specifically, we consider approximately representative samples of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) and Lyman-𝛼 emitters (LAEs) that are consistent with the observed (angular) clustering and number density of these galaxies at 𝑧 = 3. Reproducing the linear biases and number densities observed from existing LAE and LBG data, we find quadratic bias parameters that are roughly consistent with those predicted from the halo model coupled with a simple halo occupation distribution model. We also find nonperturbative velocity contributions (fingers of God) of a similar size for LBGs to the familiar case of luminous red galaxies. However, these contributions are quite small for LAEs despite their large satellite fraction values of up to ∼ 30%. Our results indicate that the effective momentum reach 𝑘 max at 𝑧 = 3 for LAEs (LBGs) will be in the range 0.3−0.6⁢ℎ Mpc −1 (0.2−0.8⁢ℎ Mpc −1 ), suggesting that EFT will perform well for high-redshift galaxy clustering. This work provides the first step toward obtaining realistic simulation-based priors on EFT parameters for LAEs and LBGs.

Sullivan, James M. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technol↗

DOE OSTI2024

Redshift evolution and covariances for joint lensing and clustering studies with DESI Y1

ABSTRACT Galaxy–galaxy lensing (GGL) and clustering measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) data set promise to yield unprecedented combined-probe tests of cosmology and the galaxy–halo connection. In such analyses, it is essential to identify and characterize all relevant statistical and systematic errors. We forecast the covariances of DESI Y1 GGL + clustering measurements and the systematic bias due to redshift evolution in the lens samples. Focusing on the projected clustering and GGL correlations, we compute a Gaussian analytical covariance, using a suite of N-body and lognormal simulations to characterize the effect of the survey footprint. Using the DESI one percent survey data, we measure the evolution of galaxy bias parameters for the DESI luminous red galaxy (LRG) and bright galaxy survey (BGS) samples. We find mild evolution in the LRGs in $0.4 < z < 0.8$, subdominant to the expected statistical errors. For BGS, we find less evolution for brighter absolute magnitude cuts, at the cost of reduced sample size. We find that for a redshift bin width $\Delta z = 0.1$, evolution effects on DESI Y1 GGL is negligible across all scales, all fiducial selection cuts, all fiducial redshift bins. Galaxy clustering is more sensitive to evolution due to the bias squared scaling. Nevertheless the redshift evolution effect is insignificant for clustering above the 1-halo scale of $0.1h^{-1}$ Mpc. For studies that wish to reliably access smaller scales, additional treatment of redshift evolution is likely needed. This study serves as a reference for GGL and clustering studies using the DESI Y1 sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Star counts from the Hubble Space Telescope Snapshot Survey. I - Galactic models

We report a photometric study of stars from 450 fields at high Galactic latitudes that were observed in the Hubble Space Telescope Snapshot Survey to an average limiting apparent magnitude of V = 21.4. There are 166 fields that contain quasars selected in radio, X-ray, and color-excess surveys. This sample of 273 stars is free of selection bias with respect to the density of stars. To within the Poisson errors, the total counts and magnitude distribution of this unbiased sample are in agreement with the Bahcall-Soneira model (Bahcall, 1986). The angular distribution of the faint stars favors, at the 2 sigma level, a somewhat steeper disk luminosity function and a smaller spheroid main-sequence normalization than given by the model. The sample does not have enough statistical power to distinguish between the two-component Bahcall-Soneira model and the three-component model first proposed by Gilmore and Reid (1983), which contains a thick disk. The statistical power of the survey would increase about 15-fold if colors were obtained for the stars: the data probe the main sequences of the disk, thick disk, and spheroid. Models with and without a thick disk could then be distinguished at the 6 sigma level. The HST Snapshot Survey includes an additional 284 fields, 279 of which are centered on quasars that were selected by objective-prism surveys. These 279 fields are expected to show and do exhibit bias against bright stars, making them unsuitable for testing Galactic models.

Gould, A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active learning strategy for high fidelity short-term data-driven building energy forecasting

The quality of a data-driven model is heavily dependent on the quality of data. Data from building operation often have data bias problems, which means that the data sample is collected in a way that some members of the intended data population are less likely to be included than others. Data-driven energy forecasting models built on such data hence are biased and could lead to large forecasting errors. Active learning—an effective method to defying data bias—is rarely studied or applied in the area of data-driven building energy forecasting modeling. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explores the application of active learning in data-driven building energy forecasting. The developed strategy in this paper efficiently generate informative training data within a time budget and uses block design to passively consider weather disturbances. The developed active learning strategy is applied and evaluated in both virtual and real-building testbeds against traditional data-driven methods. Via these virtual and real-building evaluation cases, we have demonstrated that the data bias problem typically exists in building operation data is resolved by applying the developed active learning strategy. Furthermore, building energy forecasting models trained from data generated from the active learning strategy have shown improved performances in both model accuracy and model extendibility perspectives. The effectiveness of the block design module is also validated to effectively consider the impact of weather conditions on active learning design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement bias in self-heating x-ray free electron laser experiments from diffraction studies of phase transformation in titanium

X-ray self-heating is a common by-product of X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) techniques that can affect targets, optics, and other irradiated materials. Diagnosis of heating and induced changes in samples may be performed using the x-ray beam itself as a probe. However, the relationship between conditions created by and inferred from x-ray irradiation is unclear and may be highly dependent on the material system under consideration. Here, we report on a simple case study of a titanium foil irradiated, heated, and probed by a MHz XFEL pulse train at 18.1 keV delivered by the European XFEL using measured x-ray diffraction to determine temperature and finite element analysis to interpret the experimental data. We find a complex relationship between apparent temperatures and sample temperature distributions that must be accounted for to adequately interpret the data, including beam averaging effects, multivalued temperatures due to sample phase transitions, and jumps and gaps in the observable temperature near phase transformations. The results have implications for studies employing x-ray probing of systems with large temperature gradients, particularly where these gradients are produced by the beam itself. Finally, this study shows the potential complexity of studying nonlinear sample behavior, such as phase transformations, where biasing effects of temperature gradients can become paramount, precluding clear observation of true transformation conditions.

Crystallography↗

DOE OSTI2024

Formation and interior evolution of Mars

The formation and earliest evolution of Mars involved core formation followed by magma ocean solidification and primordial crust formation. Here, in this study, we review the formation and early interior evolution of Mars as understood through meteorite studies. Martian meteorites exhibit ages that span the entire history of the Solar System, but most derive from compositionally distinct sources that formed early in the history of Mars. Geochemical and isotopic studies of Martian meteorites have provided critical information on Mars’ building blocks, bulk composition, and its differentiation into a core, mantle and crust. Radiogenic isotope systems provide vital insights into the petrogenesis of Martian meteorite source regions and into the nature and timescales of primordial differentiation on Mars. Application of short-lived isotope chronometers to Martian meteorites indicates that the Martian core formed early within <10 million years (Ma), while magma ocean differentiation and crust formation occurred soon thereafter, within the first tens of Ma of Solar System history. Bulk silicate Mars is variably depleted in moderately volatile elements relative to chondrites, but to a lesser extent than the Earth. The nature and evolution of more volatile elements and volatile species on Mars (e.g., H 2 O, C, S, halogens) remains an active area of investigation, but overall suggest that Mars is more enriched in volatile elements than the Moon but less than the Earth. While geochemical exploration of Mars coupled with new discoveries of Martian meteorites has provided a wealth of information, the compositional and lithologic diversity on Mars significantly exceeds that seen in the suites of Martian meteorites currently studied. This implies that our current perspective on the planet's evolution is very likely biased, highlighting the need for future sample return missions to Mars.

Kruijer, Thomas S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terahertz-field activation of polar skyrons

Unraveling collective modes arising from coupled degrees of freedom is crucial for understanding complex interactions in solids and developing new functionalities. Unique collective behaviors emerge when two degrees of freedom, ordered on distinct length scales, interact. Polar skyrmions, three-dimensional electric polarization textures in ferroelectric superlattices, disrupt the lattice continuity at the nanometer scale with nontrivial topology, leading to previously unexplored collective modes. Here, using terahertz-field excitation and femtosecond x-ray diffraction, we discover subterahertz collective modes, dubbed “skyrons”, which appear as swirling patterns of atomic displacements functioning as atomic-scale gearsets. The key to activating skyrons is the use of the THz field that couples primarily to skyrmion domain walls. Momentum-resolved time-domain measurements of diffuse scattering reveal an avoided crossing in the dispersion relation of skyrons. Atomistic simulations and dynamical phase-field modeling provide microscopic insights into the three-dimensional crystallographic and polarization dynamics. The amplitude and dispersion of skyrons are demonstrated to be controlled by sample temperature and electric-field bias. The discovery of skyrons and their coupling with terahertz fields opens avenues for ultrafast control of topological polar structures.

ferroelectrics↗