Observational Analysis of Extratropical Cyclone Interactions with Northeast Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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Marine weather and related parameters such as wind, ocean wave height and period, air temperature, sea surface temperature, visibility, and potential for icing are critical to the design, operation, and safety of crewed space vehicles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Constellation Program requires detailed assessment of marine weather related parameters that may be encountered during launch, abort, landing, and crew rescue operations for the crewed Axes/Orion space vehicles. This information is required for both space vehicle design and operational purposes. The space vehicles must be designed such that they cam withstand the environment they are likely to encounter. The crewed Axes/Orion space vehicles will launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida for both International Space Station (ISS) missions with 51.6deg inclination orbits and lunar missions with approximately 280 inclination orbits. Since both missions will fly ever the Atlantic Ocean on ascent to orbit and will fly over the Pacific Ocean on descent from orbit, an unlikely but possible emergency abort could require parachuting the Orion capsule and crew into the ocean. This situation could potentially put the crew in an isolated and hazardous environment for severn hours while they await rescue. Therefore, abort, landing, and crew rescue elements of the Constellation Program must address weather related parameters on a global scale. This paper describes buoy measurement data, sea surface temperature satellite data, and sea state computer model data that are being utilized by the Constellation Program to address these design and operational issues.
Marine weather and related parameters such as wind, ocean wave height and period, air temperature, sea surface temperature, visibility, and potential for icing are critical to the design, operation, and safety of crewed space vehicles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Constellation Program requires detailed assessment of marine weather related parameters that may be encountered during launch, abort, landing, and crew rescue operations for the crewed Ares/Orion space vehicles. This information is required for both space vehicle design and operational purposes. The space vehicles must be designed such that they can withstand the environment they are likely to encounter. The crewed Ares/Orion space vehicles will launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida for both International Space Station (ISS) missions with 51.6 o inclination orbits and lunar missions with approximately 28 inclination orbits. Since both missions will fly over the Atlantic Ocean on ascent to orbit and will fly over the Pacific Ocean on descent from orbit, an unlikely but possible emergency abort could require parachuting the Orion capsule and crew into the ocean. This situation could potentially put the crew in an isolated and hazardous environment for several hours while they await rescue. Therefore, abort, landing, and crew rescue elements of the Constellation Program must address weather related parameters on a global scale. This paper describes buoy measurement data, sea surface temperature satellite data, and sea state computer model data that are being utilized by the Constellation Program to address these design and operational issues.
Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.
The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.
The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration established the framework for the Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) to enable the Earth science data products to be produced by personnel directly associated with the instrument science team and knowledgeable of the science algorithms. One of the first instantiations implemented for NASA was the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) SIPS. The AMSR-E SIPS is a decentralized, geographically distributed ground data processing system composed of two primary components located in California and Alabama. Initial science data processing is conducted at Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in Santa Rosa, California. RSS ingests antenna temperature orbit data sets from JAXA and converts them to calibrated, resampled, geolocated brightness temperatures. The brightness temperatures are sent to the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, Alabama, which generates the geophysical science data products (e.g., water vapor, sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, etc.) suitable for climate research and applications usage. These science products are subsequently sent to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center in Boulder, Colorado for archival and dissemination to the at-large science community. This paper describes the organization, coordination, and production techniques employed by the AMSR-E SIPS in implementing, automating and operating the distributed data processing system.
A new model has been developed in the Data Assimilation Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It is intended for data assimilation and general circulation modeling, including representations of radiatively active trace gases such as stratospheric ozone. The model is based on the flux-form semi-Lagrangian' dynamical core, developed by Lin and Rood. In collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the physical parametrization package from the Community Climate model, Version 3, has been included. This paper will discuss the climatology of a multi-year integration of the model, with observed boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, sea ice, and incoming solar radiation). The standard model version has a resolution of 2.5 degrees longitude, 2 degrees latitude and has 55 levels between the surface and 80km. The mean climate and interannual variability of this model will be discussed, with emphasis on the middle atmosphere. The sensitivity to horizontal resolution will be examined, as will the impact of increasing and decreasing the vertical resolution. Changes which differ significantly from the interannual variations of the control run will be highlighted. Impacts of using long-term mean boundary conditions or values which vary from year to year will be discussed. Changes in the tropospheric circulation induced by lowering the upper boundary of the model will be discussed. The emphasis of the paper is on the climatology of the middle atmosphere and its impacts on the troposphere, with particular attention given to the climatologically important region near the tropopause.
Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.
The production of a satellite based turbulent surface flux product relies critically upon the near-surface input parameters. Development of retrieval algorithms for the necessary near-surface variables of wind speed, specific humidity, air temperature, and sea surface temperature has proceeded relatively independent of each another until recently. The use of a neural network approach using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in conjunction with a first guess sea surface temperature has led to successful retrieval of all parameters simultaneously. However, SSM/I frequencies lack inherent sensitivity to the sea surface temperature (SST). Recent studies have found improved air temperature and humidity retrievals can be obtained via inclusion of microwave sounding channels weighted in the lower troposphere. The inclusion of SSM/I-like frequencies as well as SST-sensitive microwave channels on AMSR-E along with AMSU-A sounding data onboard the AQUA platform provides an unique opportunity. That is the ability to provide near-simultaneous (in space and time) measurements allowing the retrieval of all the near-surface variables, including SST. This study shows results of a new algorithm designed to take advantage of the unique sampling ability of AQUA based sensors. Results from a neural network based methodology will be shown as compared to in-situ based observations of near-surface variables. Implications for creation of an AQUA based turbulent surface product are also discussed.
A set of hemispheric atmospheric analysis and prediction models was designed and tested. All programs were executed on either a 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere. Parameters for objective analysis included sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and twelve levels (from 1,000 to 100 millibars) of temperatures, heights, and winds. Stratospheric extensions (up to 10 millibars) were also provided. Four versions of a complex atmospheric prediction model, based on primitive equations, were programmed and tested. These models were executed on either the 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 grid, using either five or ten computational layers. The coarse-mesh (63 x 63) models were tested using real data for the period 21-23 April 1976. The fine-mesh (187 x 187) models were debugged, but insufficient computer resources precluded production tests. Preliminary test results for the 63 x 63 models are provided. Problem areas and proposed solutions are discussed.
As part of the SEASAT program, two sets of analysis programs were developed. One set of programs produce 63 x 63 horizontal mesh analyses on a polar stereographic grid. The other set produces 187 x 187 third mesh analyses. The parameters analyzed include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and twelve levels of upper air temperature, height and wind analyses. Both sets use operational data provided by a weather bureau. The analysis output is used to initialize the primitive equation forecast models also included.
As part of the SEASAT program of NASA, two sets of analysis programs were developed for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One set of programs produce 63 x 63 horizontal mesh analyses on a polar stereographic grid. The other set produces 187 x 187 third mesh analyses. The parameters analyzed include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and twelve levels of upper air temperature, height and wind analyses. The analysis output is used to initialize the primitive equation forecast models.