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DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

DOE OSTI2026

Maximizing machine learning interatomic potential transferability for the discovery of the novel stellated octadecagon Bi18-Pt24 cage structure

Achieving true transferability remains the central challenge for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (ML-IAPs) in modeling complex bimetallic nanoclusters across their vast potential energy surfaces. We systematically investigate data selection strategies to optimize the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) potential for the Bi-Pt nanoclusters by comparing three innovative sampling methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)/k-means (structural diversity), t-distributedStochasticNeighborEmbedding (t-SNE)/k-means (force-space diversity), and hierarchical clustering. Quantitatively, the PCA/k-means strategy proved most effective for global accuracy, yielding the lowest force errors and achieving energy root mean square errors (RMSE) values competitive with Density Functional Theory (DFT), demonstrating excellent accuracy (19.16meV/atom). Structural validation on 34 unique DFT-optimized isomers further confirmed the potential’s high fidelity, with the best model PCA/k-means reproducing structures with an average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.10 Å. However, the t-SNE methods, by maximizing diversity in the force space, demonstrated superior extrapolative power, leading to the more precise prediction of a novel stellated octadecagon Bi18⁢Pt24 cage structure, demonstrating the potential for exploring previously unseen morphologies. Our results establish a clear methodology for strategic data sampling that successfully maximizes ML-IAP transferability, providing an accurate and computationally efficient tool that accelerates the theoretical discovery of complex bimetallic architectures.

Vangheluwe, Raphaël [Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tachyon: Intelligent Multi-Scale Modeling of Distributed Resilient Infrastructure and Workflows for Data Intensive HEP Analyses

The DOE High Energy Physics (HEP) program in Neutrino and Collider science drives data-intensive science and simulation on extreme-scale platforms. Modeling and optimizing the complex distributed components from experimental to leadership computing facilities are essential for HEP workflows to achieve required response times and resilience under various conditions. Tachyon proposes a framework for scalable modeling, simulation, and validation of key performance characteristics for the distributed infrastructure between FNAL and ALCF, along with associated HEP workflows.

Carothers, Chris [Rensselaer Poly.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tachyon: Intelligent Multi-Scale Modeling of Distributed Resilient Infrastructure and Workflows for Data Intensive HEP Analyses

Carothers, Chris [Rensselaer Poly.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stokes-dependent droplet collection efficiency on a NACA 0012 airfoil from droplet-informed simulations with statistical overloading

Accurate modelling of ice accretion on aircraft wings requires analysing droplet impingement on the surface to optimize the design of ice-protection systems. We perform Euler–Lagrange simulations of a droplet-laden flow impinging on a NACA 0012 airfoil. Our study includes water droplets with eight discrete sizes ranging from 1 to 160 microns. We vary the free-stream velocity of the incoming airflow in the range 60 ≤ U ≤ 240 m s −1 and the chord length of the airfoil in the range 0.5 ≤ c ≤ 2 m. Due to the dilute nature of supercooled clouds, one-way coupling is used in the simulations. The effects of droplet breakup and collision are also neglected. To reduce the computational cost, we employ statistical overloading of droplets, allowing us to simulate millions of impinging droplets in a time span on the order of milliseconds. Our results show that the droplet collection efficiency, which measures the likelihood of droplet impingement on the airfoil surface, increases with droplet size and free-stream velocity but decreases with airfoil size. We demonstrate that collection efficiency, impingement velocity and impingement angle are primarily dictated by a single non-dimensional parameter, the droplet Stokes number. We also identify a critical stagnation-streamline Stokes number below which impingements do not occur and use it to estimate the minimum droplet size for impingement. In addition, we observe droplet behaviour to become Stokes number independent at large values of the Stokes number. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

DOE OSTI2024

Binary Quantum Control Optimization with Uncertain Hamiltonians

Optimizing the controls of quantum systems plays a crucial role in advancing quantum technologies. The time-varying noises in quantum systems and the widespread use of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles raise the need for high-quality quantum controls under uncertainties. In this paper, we consider a stochastic discrete optimization formulation of a discretized binary optimal quantum control problem involving Hamiltonians with predictable uncertainties. We propose a sample-based reformulation that optimizes both risk-neutral and risk-averse measurements of control policies, and solve these with two gradient-based algorithms using sum-up-rounding approaches. Furthermore, we discuss the differentiability of the objective function and prove upper bounds of the gaps between the optimal solutions to binary control problems and their continuous relaxations. We conduct numerical simulations on various sized problem instances based on two applications of quantum pulse optimization; we evaluate different strategies to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in quantum systems. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the controls of our stochastic optimization model achieve significantly higher quality and robustness compared with the controls of a deterministic model.

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)↗

DOE OSTI2025

An iterative CMB lensing estimator minimizing instrumental noise bias

Noise maps from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments are generally statistically anisotropic, due to scanning strategies, atmospheric conditions, or instrumental effects. Any mismodeling of this complex noise can bias the reconstruction of the lensing potential and the measurement of the lensing power spectrum from the observed CMB maps. We introduce a new CMB lensing estimator based on the maximum (MAP) reconstruction that is minimally sensitive to these instrumental noise biases. By modifying the likelihood to rely exclusively on correlations between CMB map splits with independent noise realizations, we minimize autocorrelations that contribute to biases. In the regime of many independent splits, this maximum closely approximates the optimal MAP reconstruction of the lensing potential. In simulations, we demonstrate that this method is able to determine lensing observables that are immune to any noise mismodeling with a negligible cost in signal-to-noise ratio. Our estimator enables unbiased and nearly optimal lensing reconstruction for next-generation CMB surveys.

Legrand, Louis [University of Cambridge (United Ki↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging prior mean models for faster Bayesian optimization of particle accelerators

Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major advantages of Bayesian algorithms is the ability to incorporate prior information about beam physics and historical behavior into the model used to make control decisions. In this work, we examine incorporating prior accelerator physics information into Bayesian optimization algorithms by utilizing fast executing, neural network models trained on simulated or historical datasets as prior mean functions in Gaussian process models. We show that in ideal cases, this technique substantially increases convergence speed to optimal solutions in high-dimensional tuning parameter spaces. Additionally, we demonstrate that even in non-ideal cases, where prior models of beam dynamics do not exactly match experimental conditions, the use of this technique can still enhance convergence speed. Finally, we demonstrate how these methods can be used to improve optimization in practical applications, such as transferring information gained from beam dynamics simulations to online control of the LCLS injector, and transferring knowledge gained from experimental measurements across different operating modes, such as accelerating different ion species at the ATLAS heavy ion accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Steady-State Heat Transfer Analyses

Steady-state heat transfer simulations of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design were performed to support comprehensive performance and safety metric studies concerning this design. The LEU Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium (HEU) core performance level at 85 MW. Full cycle Mode 1 full flow Case 1 (inlet temperature), Case 2 (flux-to-flow), and Case 3 (inlet pressure) safety limit analyses were performed to assess the margins to critical heat flux. Under the prescribed conditions, this LEU design meets the safety limit and limiting control setting requirements outlined in HFIR’s documented safety analysis; however, the safety margins are less than those for the 85 MW HEU core, and several assumptions were made where fuel fabrication and qualification data are currently lacking for the silicide fuel design. Effects of changes to pertinent fuel fabrication assumptions and uncertainty factors on thermal safety margins were also evaluated, showing that the margins are sensitive to many of these parameters. Power and pressure perturbations were also performed, indicating that significant steady-state thermal margins could be gained by increasing the coolant inlet pressure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

WEC-Sim Modeling of Laminar Scientific's Patented Seesaw Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

Laminar Scientific's patented seesaw wave energy converter was modeled in WEC-Sim to predict performance. The device operates by utilizing ocean surface waves to rotate a truss in pitch about a pivot. The pivot is located at the top of two pylons, which are embedded in the seafloor. The seesaw has a float on either end, and the buoyancy forces from each float cause the system to rise or fall with passing waves. Device performance relies upon seesaw length and ocean wavelength creating an antiphase effect. The seesaw truss has an adjustable length intended to achieve this effect. The operation method enforces a narrow band of wavelengths which induce the largest rotational motion from the device. The hydrodynamic analysis of the device was performed using Capytaine, and the results confirmed that the device operates best in a narrow frequency band. Four float-to-float spacing cases and three pylon radii were examined. The hydrodynamic results indicate a match between the model and the physical expectations for the device, and that varying the pylon radii by 0.1-m increments for three instances creates minimal changes in hydrodynamic properties. Power matrices for three float spacing cases of the device were simulated with Joint North Sea Wave Project spectra waves and optimal power take-off damping in WEC-Sim. The maximum average power production for the 15-m spacing case was 14.1 kW with a 5.0-s peak wave period and 4-m significant wave heights. Plots of capture-width ratios indicated that the device performance was linear and confirmed that the device is optimal in a narrow frequency band. The maximum percentage of the available wave power produced by the 15-m device was approximately 16%. Simulations of the device in regular waves were used to produce plots of average power compared to a ratio of float spacing to wavelength. These plots indicate that the power production is maximized at a ratio of 0.5, and further confirm that the device has a narrow frequency response. The device was simulated at an example field location, where the device produced an annual average power rating of 1.6 kW given an average omnidirectional wave climate of 10.3 kW m-1 and an optimal, linearized power take-off model. While the maximum predicted device performance is reliant upon a narrow band of wave frequencies, the conducted analysis provides an opportunity to improve device design prior to prototyping and testing. Modifying the design to respond to a broader frequency range would improve device performance.

numerical modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

A high fidelity and user-friendly equation-oriented optimization model for carbon capture using a novel water-lean solvent

Research Triangle Institute (RTI) International and SLB have developed a novel water-lean solvent technology for carbon capture, demonstrating low specific reboiler duty (SRD) values at capture rates exceeding 90%. At the Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) pilot plant, the technology achieved an SRD of 2.55 GJ/t-CO2 at 95% capture, utilizing an intercooler and a 5°C temperature approach in the lean/rich solvent cross exchanger. To meet varying carbon capture targets for Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) studies and to enable real-time optimization and advanced process control, an efficient optimization model is required. This model needs to minimize energy demand for a given capture rate and determine optimal operating parameters in response to fluctuating flue gas conditions. While an existing Aspen Plus simulation model, developed by RTI and SLB, accurately matches TCM plant data, its sequential modular (SM) strategy is too slow for real-time applications due to recycle streams and tight heat integration inherent in solvent-based carbon capture processes. Although an equation-oriented (EO) modeling strategy is more suitable for optimizing these processes, its adoption has been limited by several factors: feature limitations in Aspen Plus EO mode (e.g., lack of balance block support), a less user-friendly interface for variable identification and loop solving, complex troubleshooting of convergence issues, and the necessity for accurate initial values.

carbon capture↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework for Performance Evaluation and Design Optimization of PCM Embedded Heat Exchangers for the Built Environment

This research sheds light on the performance evaluation and design optimization of PCM-HXs for the built environment, addressing several barriers to practical issues to PCM-HX commercialization such as modeling aspects (i.e., modeling expertise and computational / time investment, etc.), manufacturing aspects (i.e., at-scale manufacturing, cost assessments, etc.) and experimental performance assessment (i.e., reliable experimental data, assessment of multiple PCM-working fluid combinations, etc.). We present a novel, comprehensive, and experimentally-validated design optimization framework for PCM-HXs capable of simulating any PCM-HX geometry with reasonable accuracy and significant computational time savings when compared to traditional CFD-based design practices. The framework was validated for a wide range of PCM-HX configurations, including a design optimization for a domestic hot water heater application where TES partially replaces electrical heating input. The resulting PCM-HXs were found to deliver 34-68% of the total daily hot water supply with only 5-10% package volume increase from the water heater, thus within U.S. DOE targets for TES systems. To identify the most promising HXs for PCM applications, first-order geometry and cost analyses were conducted based on off-the-shelf HX products. As part of this work, 9 PCM-HX prototypes were manufactured using additive and conventional manufacturing methods. Detailed economy-of-scale assessments were conducted for the most promising PCM-HXs and were found to have a good outlook for the next 5-10 years. The PCM-HX design optimization framework was validated through comprehensive in-house experimental testing using newly-developed PCM-to-fluid test facilities. In total,10 total in-house component-level experiments were conducted using these prototypes, including 9 with water and 1 with refrigerant (R410A) as the working fluid. It was found that the framework can successfully predict experimental thermal-hydraulic performance within ±10-20% the first time without manual design changes, eliminating the need for time-consuming and expensive prototyping efforts as part of the design process. As part of this work, a publicly-available PCM web tool was released which includes a PCM property database (531 PCMs) and PCM-HX modeling tool to assist the design community on common PCM-HX use-cases, e.g., single/multiple flow path(s) fluid-to-PCM and air-to-fluid-to-PCM configurations (https://ceeeweb.umd.edu/pcmapp/). This work will accelerate the design and time to market for next generation PCM-HXs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

AI-Driven Detector Design for the EIC (Final Technical Report)

We developed an optimization workflow based on DNN-based fast-simulation and reconstruction algorithms. We used these methods to advance the design of calorimeter systems for the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). This DNN-driven optimization provides a blueprint for integrating gradient-based methods into detector-design workflows. All software pipelines and methods have been released publicly and incorporated into the EIC collaboration’s physics studies, broadening their impact. Three journal articles detailing the methods developed here serve as a reference for the design and optimal use of next generation high-granularity calorimeter systems in nuclear and particle physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum simulation of boson-related Hamiltonians: techniques, effective Hamiltonian construction, and error analysis

Elementary quantum mechanics proposes that a closed physical system consistently evolves in a reversible manner. However, control and readout necessitate the coupling of the quantum system to the external environment, subjecting it to relaxation and decoherence. Consequently, system-environment interactions are indispensable for simulating physically significant theories. A broad spectrum of physical systems in condensed-matter and high-energy physics, vibrational spectroscopy, and circuit and cavity QED necessitates the incorporation of bosonic degrees of freedom, such as phonons, photons, and gluons, into optimized fermion algorithms for near-future quantum simulations. In particular, when a quantum system is surrounded by an external environment, its basic physics can usually be simplified to a spin or fermionic system interacting with bosonic modes. Nevertheless, troublesome factors such as the magnitude of the bosonic degrees of freedom typically complicate the direct quantum simulation of these interacting models, necessitating the consideration of a comprehensive plan. This strategy should specifically include a suitable fermion/boson-to-qubit mapping scheme to encode sufficiently large yet manageable bosonic modes, and a method for truncating and/or downfolding the Hamiltonian to the defined subspace for performing an approximate but highly accurate simulation, guided by rigorous error analysis. In this pedagogical tutorial review, we aim to provide such an exhaustive strategy, focusing on encoding and simulating certain bosonic-related model Hamiltonians, inclusive of their static properties and time evolutions. Specifically, we emphasize two aspects: (1) the discussion of recently developed quantum algorithms for these interacting models and the construction of effective Hamiltonians, and (2) a detailed analysis regarding a tightened error bound for truncating the bosonic modes for a class of fermion-boson interacting Hamiltonians.

bosonic Hamiltonian↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Optimal Experimental Design of Infinite-Dimensional Bayesian Nonlinear Inverse Problems

Abstract. We consider robust optimal experimental design (ROED) for nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). An optimal design is one that maximizes some utility quantifying the quality of the solution of an inverse problem. However, the optimal design is dependent on elements of the inverse problem such as the simulation model, the prior, or the measurement error model. ROED aims to produce an optimal design that is aware of the additional uncertainties encoded in the inverse problem and remains optimal even after variations in them. We follow a worst-case scenario approach to develop a new framework for robust optimal design of nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. The proposed framework (a) is scalable and designed for infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems constrained by PDEs; (b) develops efficient approximations of the utility, namely the expected information gain; (c) employs eigenvalue sensitivity techniques to develop analytical forms and efficient evaluation methods of the gradient of the utility with respect to the uncertainties against which we wish to be robust; and (d) employs a probabilistic optimization paradigm that properly defines and efficiently solves the resulting combinatorial max-min optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated for optimal sensor placement problem in an inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE.

Chowdhary, Abhijit↗