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At least 343 records · Page 19

Impact of Assimilating Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on the Analysis of Polar Lows and Mediterranean Sea Tropical-Like Cyclone in a Global Modeling and Data Assimilation Framework

Polar lows, and mesoscale convective cyclones bearing resemblance to tropical cyclones but originating outside of the tropics, are storms that are challenging to represent accurately in global analyses and models because of their small size, rapid growth at subsynoptic scales, occurrence in data poor oceanic regions, and difficulties in objectively validating them in analysis. Building on previous positive results obtained with respect to the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a global model, a set of observing system experiments (OSEs) performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) are investigated, focusing on three case studies—a polar low in the Sea of Okhotsk, a polar low in the Southern Ocean, and a Mediterranean Sea tropical-like cyclone that occurred during the boreal fall season of 2014. Experiments assimilating adaptively thinned cloud-cleared hyperspectral infrared radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite, with higher density in the vicinity of each storm and its pre-cyclogenesis environment, and lower density elsewhere, demonstrate a positive impact on the analyzed representation of each storm. The adaptive thinning experiments improve the storm intensity and structure, including vertical alignment, depth, symmetry, strength, and compactness of warm core compared to the reference experiments. The results suggest that jet-level processes associated with extremely strong horizontal velocity gradients as represented in the model analysis can be useful to locate dynamically active regions of the extratropical atmosphere where denser data coverage is likely to improve the analyzed representation of polar lows and other similar marine mesoscale convective cyclones.

global modeling↗

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Abstract Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier—fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME): Ocean and Sea-Ice Processes

The primary goal of this project was to understand the role of the ocean and sea-ice components in the evolution of the climate in both a high-resolution fully-coupled 1850 preindustrial control and present day transient climate simulations run using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), formerly known as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). Two distinct approaches to the initialization of the present day transients were tested: in the first, an ensemble of three transients used atmospheric reanalysis forced 0.1-degree ocean/sea-ice states, while a fourth transient was branched off the preindustrial control. Biases from the control were inherited by its successor transient, in particular, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at high latitudes were too warm and too much northward meridional heat transport occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere and Atlantic meridional heat transport increased in the transients initialized from the ocean/sea-ice simulation over a 40-50 year period to largely resemble the transient branched off the control simulation. Excessive absorbed solar radiation (ASR) is considered to be responsible for the SST biases as well as the formation of mode waters in lighter density classes than in reality both in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre. These mode waters ventilate the thermocline waters to the north of their formation sites explaining the excessive Atlantic meridional heat transport and some of the warming in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean after multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology

This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2xCO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7‐‐3.1°C (depending on version), and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.

General Circulation Model↗

Investigation of microwave backscatter from the air-sea interface

Monitoring the ocean surface winds and mean ocean surface level is essential for improving our knowledge of the climate. Two instruments that may provide us with this information are satellite-based scatterometers and altimeters. However, these instruments measure the backscatter characteristics of the ocean surface from which other physical parameters, such as the wind speed or ocean surface height, are derived. To improve the algorithms or models that relate the electromagnetic backscatter to the desired physical parameters, the University of Massachusetts (UMass) Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory (MIRSL) designed and fabricated three airborne scatterometers: a C-band scatterometer (CSCAT), Ku-band scatterometer (KUSCAT) and C/Ku-band scatterometer (EMBR). One or more of these instruments participated in the Electromagnetic Bias experiment (EM Bias), Shelf Edge Exchange Processes experiment (SEEP), Surface Wave Dynamics Experiment (SWADE), Southern Ocean Wave Experiment (SOWEX), Hurricane Tina research flights, Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and Ladir In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). This document describes the three scatterometers, summarizes our measurement campaigns and major contributions to the scientific and engineering communities, lists the publications that resulted, and presents the degrees earned under the support of this NASA grant.

Mcintosh, Robert E.↗

Understanding the Transport of Patagonian Dust and Its Influence on Marine Biological Activity in the South Atlantic Ocean

Modeling and remote sensing techniques were applied to examine the horizontal and vertical transport pathways of Patagonian dust and quantify the effect of soluble-iron- laden mineral dust deposition on marine primary productivity in the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) surface waters. The global chemistry transport model GEOS-Chem, implemented with an iron dissolution scheme, was applied to evaluate the atmospheric transport and deposition of mineral dust and bioavailable iron during two dust outbreaks originating in the source regions of Patagonia. In addition to this "rapidly released" iron, offline calculations were also carried out to estimate the amount of bioavailable iron leached during the residence time of dust in the ocean mixed layer. Model simulations showed that the horizontal and vertical transport pathways of Patagonian dust plumes were largely influenced by the synoptic meteorological patterns of high and low pressure systems. Model-predicted horizontal and vertical transport pathways of Patagonian dust over the SAO were in reasonable agreement with remotely-sensed data. Comparison between remotely-sensed and offline calculated ocean surface chlorophyll-a concentrations indicated that, for the two dust outbreaks examined in this study, the deposition of bioavailable iron in the SAO through atmospheric pathways was insignificant. As the two dust transport episodes examined here represent typical outflows of mineral dust from South American sources, our study suggests that the atmospheric deposition of mineral dust is unlikely to induce large scale marine primary productivity and carbon sequestration in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean.

Johnson, Matthew↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-28148-DND

Currently, ocean carbon biomass is estimated from ocean color measurements primarily through particulate backscatter coefficients (bbp). Small non-algal particles contribute significantly to bbp due to the fact that small particles scatter more isotropically while bigger particles scatter mostly in the forward direction. CALIPSO’s ocean subsurface cross polarization measurements (Figure 1) are not sensitive to small particles far less than 2 microns in size since these particles rarely cause depolarization. Thus, cross polarization backscatter is contributed mostly by larger, depolarizing phytoplankton particles. This is why CALIPSO’s cross polarization has much larger contrasts comparing with MODIS reflectance (CALIPSO cross polarization is very weak in Gyres and much stronger in high latitudes, See Figure 1). CALIPSO cross-polarization measurements in the Southern Oceans also suggest that water cloud droplet number concentration covaries with phytoplankton carbon biomass (Figure 2), but it has less correlation with particulate organic carbon (POC) (Figure 2) and chlorophyll concentration. The study also agrees with water cloud droplet size retrieved from Parasol’s polarization measurements.

Yongxiang Hu↗

Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current

A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.

Fu, L.-L.↗

Observations of the polar regions from satellites using active and passive microwave techniques

Observations of the ocean ice, ice sheets, ice edges, and ocean waves in the Antarctic, performed by the Seasat and Nimbus-7 satellites are described. Specific features of the Seasat altimeter, the SAR, the Seasat-A Scatterometer System, and the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are discussed, together with the advantages and limitations of each instrument as applied to the study of ice dynamics. The Nimbus-7 SMMR algorithm for calculating sea-ice concentrations is presented. In addition, the Seasat altimeter-derived data on wind speed and wave heights in the Southern Ocean, and on the ice sheets of the Antarctica and Greenland were evaluated.

Swift, C. T.↗

Novel fisheries investigations by Harald Dannevig: some parallels with Johan Hjort on the other side of the world

Abstract Harald Dannevig was Australia’s first Director of fisheries research and Director of Australia’s first ocean-going research vessel. Dannevig’s initial contributions concerned hatchery technology, freshwater fisheries, and impacts of estuarine prawn trawling. Later, he revealed the growth and migration of sea mullet, the spawning of pelagic eggs in the coastal ocean, and he was the first to demonstrate the effect of onshore winds on recruitment to estuarine fisheries. Using plans of the first Norwegian research trawler Michael Sars, he advised on the construction and commissioning of Endeavour. He organized 99 research voyages over 6 years to determine suitable trawling grounds over ∼7000 km, discovering 263 new species, including 96 new fish species and ∼5000 catalogued specimens. Harald Dannevig’s significant achievements in Australia were soon forgotten after his death with the loss of Endeavour in the Southern Ocean at the beginning of World War I. Both Johan Hjort and Dannevig were numerate, loved natural history, and were keenly observant on the deck. As these two scientists did not correspond, their innovative and parallel thinking stems from the shared university environment with G.O. Sars, and the rapport between Sars and Harald’s father Gunder Dannevig, concerning the fish hatchery and stocking of larval cod.

Suthers, Iain M.↗

Barotropic tides in MPAS-Ocean (E3SM V2): impact of ice shelf cavities

Abstract. Oceanic tides are seldom represented in Earth system models (ESMs) owing to the need for high horizontal resolution to accurately represent the associated barotropic waves close to coasts. This paper presents results of tides implemented in the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Ocean or MPAS-Ocean, which is the ocean component within the U.S. Department of Energy developed Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). MPAS-Ocean circumvents the limitation of low resolution using unstructured global meshing. We are at this stage simulating the largest semidiurnal (M2, S2, N2) and diurnal (K1, O1) tidal constituents in a single-layer version of MPAS-O. First, we show that the tidal constituents calculated using MPAS-Ocean closely agree with the results of the global tidal prediction model TPXO8 when suitably tuned topographic wave drag and bottom drag coefficients are employed. Thereafter, we present the sensitivity of global tidal evolution due to the presence of Antarctic ice shelf cavities. The effect of ice shelves on the amplitude and phase of tidal constituents are presented. Lower values of complex errors (with respect to TPXO8 results) for the M2 tidal constituents are observed when the ice shelf is added in the simulations, with particularly strong improvement in the Southern Ocean. Our work points towards future research with varying Antarctic ice shelf geometries and sea ice coupling that might lead to better comparison and prediction of tides and thus better prediction of sea-level rise and also the future climate variability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The dependence of the oceans MOC on mesoscale eddy diffusivities: A model study

The dependence of the depth and strength of the ocean's global meridional overturning cells (MOC) on the specification of mesoscale eddy diffusivity (K) is explored in two ocean models. The GISS and MIT ocean models are driven by the same prescribed forcing fields, configured in similar ways, spun up to equilibrium for a range of K 's and the resulting MOCs mapped and documented. Scaling laws implicit in modern theories of the MOC are used to rationalize the results. In all calculations the K used in the computation of eddy-induced circulation and that used in the representation of eddy stirring along neutral surfaces, is set to the same value but is changed across experiments. We are able to connect changes in the strength and depth of the Atlantic MOC, the southern ocean upwelling MOC, and the deep cell emanating from Antarctica, to changes in K.

Global ocean↗

A numerical framework for simulating the atmospheric variability of supermicron marine biogenic ice nucleating particles

Abstract. We present a framework for estimating concentrations of episodically elevated high-temperature marine ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the sea surface microlayer and their subsequent emission into the atmospheric boundary layer. These episodic INPs have been observed in multiple ship-based and coastal field campaigns, but the processes controlling their ocean concentrations and transfer to the atmosphere are not yet fully understood. We use a combination of empirical constraints and simulation outputs from an Earth system model to explore different hypotheses for explaining the variability of INP concentrations, and the occurrence of episodic INPs, in the marine atmosphere. In our calculations, we examine the following two proposed oceanic sources of high-temperature INPs: heterotrophic bacteria and marine biopolymer aggregates (MBPAs). Furthermore, we assume that the emission of these INPs is determined by the production of supermicron sea spray aerosol formed from jet drops, with an entrainment probability that is described by Poisson statistics. The concentration of jet drops is derived from the number concentration of supermicron sea spray aerosol calculated from model runs. We then derive the resulting number concentrations of marine high-temperature INPs (at 253 K) in the atmospheric boundary layer and compare their variability to atmospheric observations of INP variability. Specifically, we compare against concentrations of episodically occurring high-temperature INPs observed during field campaigns in the Southern Ocean, the Equatorial Pacific, and the North Atlantic. In this case study, we evaluate our framework at 253 K because reliable observational data at this temperature are available across three different ocean regions, but suitable data are sparse at higher temperatures. We find that heterotrophic bacteria and MBPAs acting as INPs provide only a partial explanation for the observed high INP concentrations. We note, however, that there are still substantial knowledge gaps, particularly concerning the identity of the oceanic INPs contributing most frequently to episodic high-temperature INPs, their specific ice nucleation activity, and the enrichment of their concentrations during the sea–air transfer process. Therefore, targeted measurements investigating the composition of these marine INPs and drivers for their emissions are needed, ideally in combination with modeling studies focused on the potential cloud impacts of these high-temperature INPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Scale and Activity of Symmetric Instability Estimated from a Global Submesoscale-Permitting Ocean Model

Abstract Symmetric instability (SI) extracts kinetic energy from fronts in the surface mixed layer (SML), potentially affecting the SML structure and dynamics. Here, a global submesoscale-permitting ocean model named MITgcm LLC4320 simulation is used to examine the Stone linear prediction of the maximum SI scale to estimate grid spacings needed to begin resolving SI. Furthermore, potential effects of SI on the usable wind work are estimated roughly: this estimate of SI “activity” is useful for assessing if these modes should be resolved or parameterized. The maximum SI scale varies by latitude with median values from 568 to 23 m. Strong seasonality is observed in the SI scale and activity. The median scale in winter is 188 m globally, 2.5 times of that of summer (75 m). SI is more active in winter: 15% of the time compared with 6% in summer. The strongest SI activity is found in the western Pacific, western Atlantic, and Southern Oceans. The required grid spacings for a global model to begin resolving SI eddies in the SML are 24 m (50% of regions resolved) and 7.9 m (90%) in winter, decreasing to 9.4 m (50%) and 3.6 m (90%) in summer. It is also estimated that SI may reduce usable wind work by an upper bound of 0.83 mW m −2 globally, or 5% of the global magnitude. The sensitivity of these estimates to empirical thresholds is provided in the text.

Dong, Jihai↗

A Comparison between the TOPEX/POSEIDON Data and a Global Ocean General Circulation Model during 1992-1993

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric sea level observation during 1992-1993 was used to validate the simulation made by a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the daily wind stress and heat flux derived from the National Meteorological Center operational analysis. The OGCM is a version of the modular ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 2 deg longitude and 1 deg latitude and 22 levels in the vertical. The model simulation is compared to the observation at spatial scales of the order of 500 km and larger. Only the temporal variations are examined. The variability is composed primarily of the annual cycle and intraseasonal fluctuations (periods shorter than 100 days). The basic features of the annual cycle are simulated well by the model. Major discrepancies are found in the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as the eastern North Pacific and most of the interior of the North Atlantic. The culprit is suspected to be the inadequate heat forcing and mixing parameterizations of the model. Significant intraseasonal variability is found in the central North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The simulation is highly correlated with the observation at periods from 20 to 100 days. The spatial scales are larger than 1000 km in many places. These variabilities are apparently the barotropic response of the ocean to wind forcing. The results of the study provide a basis for future assimilation of the data into the OGCM for improved description of the large-scale ocean variabilities.

Chao, Yi↗

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Lau, K. M.↗

Decadal Trends in Abundance, Size and Condition of Antarctic Toothfish in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, 1972-2010

We report analyses of a dataset spanning 38 years of near-annual fishing for Antarctic toothfish Dissostichus mawsoni, using a vertical setline through the fast ice of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, 1972-2010. This constitutes one of the longest biological time series in the Southern Ocean, and certainly the longest for any fish. Fish total length, condition and catch per unit effort (CPUE) were derived from the more than 5500 fish caught. Contrary to expectation, length-frequency was dominated by fish in the upper half of the industrial catch. The discrepancy may be due to biases in the sampling capabilities of vertical (this study) versus benthic (horizontal) fishing gear (industry long lines), related to the fact that only large Antarctic toothfish (more than 100 cm TL) are neutrally buoyant and occur in the water column. Fish length and condition increased from the early 1970s to the early 1990s and then decreased, related to sea ice cover, with lags of 8 months to 5 years, and may ultimately be related to the fishery (which targets large fish) and changes in the Southern Annular Mode through effects on toothfish main prey, Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarcticum. CPUE was constant through 2001 and then decreased dramatically, likely related to the industrial fishery, which began in 1996 and which concentrates effort over the Ross Sea slope, where tagged McMurdo fish have been found. Due to limited prey choices and, therefore, close coupling among mesopredators of the Ross Sea, Antarctic toothfish included, the fishery may be altering the trophic structure of the Ross Sea.

Ainley, David G.↗