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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Full phase space resonant anomaly detection

Physics beyond the Standard Model that is resonant in one or more dimensions has been a longstanding focus of countless searches at colliders and beyond. Recently, many new strategies for have been developed, where sideband information can be used in conjunction with modern machine learning, in order to generate synthetic datasets representing the Standard Model background. Until now, this approach was only able to accommodate a relatively small number of dimensions, limiting the breadth of the search sensitivity. Using recent innovations in point cloud generative models, we show that this strategy can also be applied to the full phase space, using all relevant particles for the anomaly detection. As a proof of principle, we show that the signal from the R&D dataset from the LHC Olympics is findable with this method, opening up the door to future studies that explore the interplay between depth and breadth in the representation of the data for anomaly detection. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrative Circuit-Host Modeling of a Genetic Switch in Varying Environments

Synthetic biology is advancing into a new phase where real-world applications are emphasized. There is hence an urgent need for mathematical modeling that can quantitatively describe the behaviors of genetic devices in natural, fluctuating environments. We utilize an integrative circuit-host modeling framework to examine the dynamics of a genetic switch and its host cell in varying environments. For both steady-state and transient cases, we find increasing nutrient reduces the bistability region of the phase space and eventually drives the switch from bistability to monostability. In response, cellular growth and proteome partitioning experience the same transition. Antibiotic perturbations cause the similar circuit and host responses as nutrient variations. However, one difference is the trend of growth rate, which augments with nutrient but declines with antibiotic levels. The framework provides a mechanistic scheme to account for both the dynamic and static characteristics of the circuit-host system upon environmental perturbations, underscoring the intimacy of gene circuits and their hosts and elucidating the complexity of circuit behaviors arising from environmental variations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Earthquake Source Parameters with 3D Wavespeed Models in California and Nevada

Seismic tomography harnesses earthquake data to explore the inaccessible structure of the Earth. Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT), a method of seismic tomography, updates the tomographic model by optimizing the fit between observed earthquake data and synthetic waveforms. The synthetic data are calculated by solving the wave equation through a given 3D model. An important requirement to calculating synthetics is the source information (location, centroid time, depth, and moment tensor). Errors in source information affect the quality of the synthetics produced, which in turn can limit how structure can be inferred in the AWT workflow. Here, to test the effect of updating source information, we used MTTime (Chiang, 2020), a time-domain full-waveform moment tensor inversion code, to calculate the moment tensors and depths of 118 earthquakes that occurred in California and Nevada over a 20-yr period. We calculated 3D Green’s functions using a 3D seismic wavespeed model of California and Nevada (Doody et al., 2023b). We show that the inverted solutions provide better waveform fits than the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and increase usable, well-correlated data by up to 7%. Therefore, we argue that recalculating source parameters should be considered in AWT workflows, particularly for smaller magnitude events (⁠M w > 5.0).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explaining machine-learning models for gamma-ray detection and identification

As more complex predictive models are used for gamma-ray spectral analysis, methods are needed to probe and understand their predictions and behavior. Recent work has begun to bring the latest techniques from the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) into the applications of gamma-ray spectroscopy, including the introduction of gradient-based methods like saliency mapping and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM), and black box methods like Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). In addition, new sources of synthetic radiological data are becoming available, and these new data sets present opportunities to train models using more data than ever before. In this work, we use a neural network model trained on synthetic NaI(Tl) urban search data to compare some of these explanation methods and identify modifications that need to be applied to adapt the methods to gamma-ray spectral data. We find that the black box methods LIME and SHAP are especially accurate in their results, and recommend SHAP since it requires little hyperparameter tuning. We also propose and demonstrate a technique for generating counterfactual explanations using orthogonal projections of LIME and SHAP explanations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical cosmology: Simulating scalar fluctuations in expanding universes using synthetic mechanical lattices

Inspired by recent advances in observational astrophysics and continued explorations in the field of analog gravity, we discuss the prospect of simulating models of cosmology within the context of synthetic mechanical lattice experiments. We focus on the physics of expanding universe scenarios described by the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric. Specifically, quantizing scalar fluctuations in a background FLRW spacetime leads to a quadratic bosonic Hamiltonian with temporally varying pair production terms. Here we present a mapping that provides a one-to-one correspondence between these classes of cosmology models and feedback-coupled mechanical oscillators. As proof of principle, we then perform experiments on a synthetic mechanical lattice composed of such oscillators. We simulate two different FLRW expansion scenarios with universes dominated by vacuum energy and matter and discuss our experimental results. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Rhyno, Brendan (ORCID:0000000235266998)↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-fidelity model-driven deception platform for cyber-physical systems

Methods are described for protecting a cyber-physical system against a potential attacker of the system. The methods include a method of generating a plurality of examples for a training data set and training a system model using the training data set to generate a decoy configured to generate a synthetic output that mimics historical outputs generated by the system for a given historical system context. Also described is a method including receiving a system context of a cyber-physical system; receiving an inquiry into the system by a potential attacker; applying a system model to the system context and the inquiry; obtaining from the system model a synthetic output that mimics how a component of the system would respond to the inquiry given the system context; and providing the synthetic output to the potential attacker.

Edgar, Thomas W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Air Handling Units to Create a Diverse Fault Dataset for FDD Innovation: Lessons Learned and Recommendations

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault datasets for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling unit and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for the air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, two detailed AHU models, which included the single duct AHU and dual duct AHU developed in the Modelica language and HVACSIM+ were employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor faults, mechanical faults, and control sequence faults. The fault inclusive data were then validated by comparing fault effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. We report some lessons learnt during the efforts of validating the high volumes of the FDD data sets. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generation and evaluation of synthetic patient data

Background: Machine learning (ML) has made a significant impact in medicine and cancer research; however, its impact in these areas has been undeniably slower and more limited than in other application domains. A major reason for this has been the lack of availability of patient data to the broader ML research community, in large part due to patient privacy protection concerns. High-quality, realistic, synthetic datasets can be leveraged to accelerate methodological developments in medicine. By and large, medical data is high dimensional and often categorical. These characteristics pose multiple modeling challenges. Methods: In this paper, we evaluate three classes of synthetic data generation approaches; probabilistic models, classification-based imputation models, and generative adversarial neural networks. Metrics for evaluating the quality of the generated synthetic datasets are presented and discussed. Results: While the results and discussions are broadly applicable to medical data, for demonstration purposes we generate synthetic datasets for cancer based on the publicly available cancer registry data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Specifically, our cohort consists of breast, respiratory, and non-solid cancer cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2015, which includes over 360,000 individual cases. Conclusions: We discuss the trade-offs of the different methods and metrics, providing guidance on considerations for the generation and usage of medical synthetic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Annual Air Handling Unit Fault Dataset for FDD Tools: Lessons Learned and Considerations for FDD Developers

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault data for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling units and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for a single duct air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, a detailed AHU model was employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor and mechanical faults, which were then validated by comparing their effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2023

DSPS: Differentiable stellar population synthesis

ABSTRACT Models of stellar population synthesis (SPS) are the fundamental tool that relates the physical properties of a galaxy to its spectral energy distribution (SED). In this paper, we present DSPS: a python package for SPS. All of the functionality in DSPS is implemented natively in the JAX library for automatic differentiation, and so our predictions for galaxy photometry are fully differentiable, and directly inherit the performance benefits of JAX, including portability onto GPUs. DSPS also implements several novel features, such as i) a flexible empirical model for stellar metallicity that incorporates correlations with stellar age, ii) support for the Diffstar model that provides a physically-motivated connection between the star formation history of a galaxy (SFH) and the mass assembly of its underlying dark matter halo. We detail a set of theoretical techniques for using autodiff to calculate gradients of predictions for galaxy SEDs with respect to SPS parameters that control a range of physical effects, including SFH, stellar metallicity, nebular emission, and dust attenuation. When forward modelling the colours of a synthetic galaxy population, we find that DSPS can provide a factor of 5 speed-up over standard SPS codes on a CPU, and a factor of 300-400 on a modern GPU. When coupled with gradient-based techniques for optimization and inference, DSPS makes it practical to conduct expansive likelihood analyses of simulation-based models of the galaxy–halo connection that fully forward model galaxy spectra and photometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The use of digital thread for reconstruction of local fiber orientation in a compression molded pin bracket via deep learning

A deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) was used for microstructure reconstruction using artificial intelligence (MR-AI) by predicting local average fiber orientation distributions (FOD) in a 3D prepreg platelet molded composite (PPMC) pin bracket. To train the MR-AI model, surface strain fields from residual stresses simulated in PPMC plates were used as the input to the DCNN. A training dataset included PPMC plates with various degrees of global fiber alignment, based on the information obtained from high-fidelity flow simulation of a pin bracket. Further, the MR-AI model was then deployed to analyze FOD in the 3D pin bracket by conducting thermo-elastic residual stress analysis. Initially, the MR-AI model was established entirely on the synthetic simulation data. Then, a μCT scan of a physically molded pin bracket was used to create a finite element model that provided data for additional validation of the DCNN model. For the μCT scan finite element pin bracket the MR-AI model predicted the distribution of fiber orientation tensor components with MAE of 0.10 indicating a global prediction error of 10%. For the flow simulated pin bracket, the MR-AI model predicted the distribution of fiber orientation tensor components with a global prediction error of 11%. The MR-AI model showed the ability to predict regions of varying alignment in the base and flange of the pin bracket. The proposed MR-AI methodology allows for rapid prediction of FOD in geometrically complex parts and offers a promising path to detecting unique fiber orientation states in molded components.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics‐Informed Machine Learning Method for Large‐Scale Data Assimilation Problems

Abstract We develop a physics‐informed machine learning approach for large‐scale data assimilation and parameter estimation and apply it for estimating transmissivity and hydraulic head in the two‐dimensional steady‐state subsurface flow model of the Hanford Site given synthetic measurements of said variables. In our approach, we extend the physics‐informed conditional Karhunen‐Loéve expansion (PICKLE) method to modeling subsurface flow with unknown flux (Neumann) and varying head (time‐dependent Dirichlet) boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the PICKLE method is comparable in accuracy with the standard maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, but is significantly faster than MAP for large‐scale problems. Both methods use a mesh to discretize the computational domain. In MAP, the parameters and states are discretized on the mesh; therefore, the size of the MAP parameter estimation problem directly depends on the mesh size. In PICKLE, the mesh is used to evaluate the residuals of the governing equation, while the parameters and states are approximated by the truncated conditional Karhunen‐Loéve expansions with the number of parameters controlled by the smoothness of the parameter and state fields, and not by the mesh size. For a considered example, we demonstrate that the computational cost of PICKLE increases near linearly (as N 1.15 ) with the number of grid nodes N , while that of MAP increases much faster (as N 3.28 ). We also show that once trained for one set of Dirichlet boundary conditions (i.e., one river stage), the PICKLE method provides accurate estimates of the hydraulic head for any value of the Dirichlet boundary conditions (i.e., for any river stage).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate model of the projected velocity distribution of galaxies in dark matter haloes

ABSTRACT We present a per cent-level accurate model of the line-of-sight velocity distribution of galaxies around dark matter haloes as a function of projected radius and halo mass. The model is developed and tested using synthetic galaxy catalogues generated with the UniverseMachine run on the Multi-Dark Planck 2 N-body simulations. The model decomposes the galaxies around a cluster into three kinematically distinct classes: orbiting, infalling, and interloping galaxies. We demonstrate that: (1) we can statistically distinguish between these three types of galaxies using only projected line-of-sight velocity information; (2) the halo edge radius inferred from the line-of-sight velocity dispersion is an excellent proxy for the three-dimensional halo edge radius; and (3) we can accurately recover the full velocity dispersion profile for each of the three populations of galaxies. Importantly, the velocity dispersion profiles of the orbiting and infalling galaxies contain five independent parameters – three distinct radial scales and two velocity dispersion amplitudes – each of which is correlated with mass. Thus, the velocity dispersion profile of galaxy clusters has inherent redundancies that allow us to perform non-trivial systematics checks from a single data set. We discuss several potential applications of our new model for detecting the edge radius and constraining cosmology and astrophysics using upcoming spectroscopic surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demand Response Analysis for Different Residential Personas in a Comfort-Driven Behavioral Context

Low demand response (DR) participation and high program drop-out rates continue to impede DR goals that could save up to $13 billion in annual grid expansion and electricity demand costs. Yet, the literature lacks a thorough understanding of how different residential customer segments enrolled in DR programs respond to utility signals in view of occupant comfort considerations. The objective of this study is to gain a clear understanding of the effects of four different customer personas on residential DR. Given current data limitations, this work developed an array of hypothetical personas with varied priorities, activity levels, and comfort thresholds based on demographic variables that have been found in previous studies to influence energy consumption. A BEopt DR model for a reference residential single-family building located in Colorado was built to isolate the effect of differences in buildings or climate. The results provide useful evidence on how persona-comfort differences lead to significant deviations in DR goals (especially peak demand reduction), ranging from 0.1% to 20%. This work presents a novel framework representing comfort preferences in DR models. The data generated, albeit synthetic, and the results could inform DR program design considerations of how different people respond to different comfort priorities.

BEopt↗
DOE OSTI2024

Platform for Integrated Land use And Transportation Experiments and Simulation (PILATES) v1.0

PILATES allows for flexibly and at-scale coupling of multiple models to allow for multi-scale and multi-resolution simulation of regional-scale transport networks. In particular, it couples the MATSim-derived transportation modeling framework for Behavior, Energy, Autonomy and Mobility (BEAM) with other models operating at different time scales. Rather than tightly coupling supply and demand models using shared agents and memory within the same software process, PILATES orchestrates different model runs in a containerized framework. This structure requires passing information from the demand models to BEAM in the format of a synthetic population and agent plans, and from BEAM to the demand models in terms or origin/destination tables (also known as "skims"). This allows it to take advantage of the behavioral sophistication of existing activity-based models as well as the reinforcement learning structure of MATSim replanning and adopted by BEAM, in a way that requires minimal changes to existing models. It also takes advantage of the computational performance of BEAM, which allows for simulations with millions of agents to complete in reasonable time as well as allowing for detailed mechanistic simulation of the operation of on-demand modes.

Needell, Zachary↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rock Physics-Based Data Assimilation of Integrated Continuous Active-Source Seismic and Pressure Monitoring Data during Geological Carbon Storage

Summary There has been substantial controversy concerning the role of geological carbon storage (GCS) in sequestering anthropogenic carbon emissions to mitigate climate change and global warming. Arguments center on the inability to monitor a geological storage site precisely and continuously, especially highlighting the associated costs and spatiotemporal trade-offs when using conventional subsurface monitoring techniques (well logs, core samples, chemical tracers, and 4D seismics). Active surveillance of GCS sites is essential for managing and mitigating potential leaks but is also required by regulation. With the goal of enhancing the monitoring capability at GCS sites, we present a rock physics-based joint data assimilation model to study a popular GCS site at Cranfield, Mississippi, USA. Synthetic continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) data (in the form of Vp and Qp measurements) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are assimilated with an ensemble of reservoir realizations to monitor gas saturation and reservoir pressure changes over a period of 100 years. Synthetic seismic attributes are generated using rock physics models (RPMs) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are extracted from the ground truth. Two assimilation methods, ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS), are tested in an observation system simulation experiment (OSSE) environment to assess the prediction accuracy of the individual and composite observation systems. The joint monitoring system achieves more accurate estimates of gas saturation and pressure, across the time span from start of injection to end of forecast, as compared to a single type of monitoring tool and irrespective of data assimilation algorithm choice. These results indicate that jointly assimilated data from two types of sensors (in this case, crosswell seismic and downhole pressure) may lead to a more risk-reducing monitoring design. One would expect that more data, vis-à-vis inclusion of a new sensor type, will improve the accuracy of any GCS monitoring system. However, from a practical standpoint, one important question is whether such a gain in accuracy is worth the additional cost associated with the new sensor. This paper focuses on quantifying the gain in accuracy, such that a practitioner can answer this question.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ice Phase Classification Made Easy with Score-Based Denoising

Accurate identification of ice phases is essential for understanding various physicochemical phenomena. However, such classification for structures simulated with molecular dynamics is complicated by the complex symmetries of ice polymorphs and thermal fluctuations. For this purpose, both traditional order parameters and data-driven machine learning approaches have been employed, but they often rely on expert intuition, specific geometric information, or large training data sets. In this work, we present an unsupervised phase classification framework that combines a score-based denoiser model with a subsequent model-free classification method to accurately identify ice phases. Further, the denoiser model is trained on perturbed synthetic data of ideal reference structures, eliminating the need for large data sets and labeling efforts. The classification step utilizes the smooth overlap of atomic position (SOAP) descriptors as the atomic fingerprint, ensuring Euclidean symmetries and transferability to various structural systems. Our approach achieves a remarkable 100% accuracy in distinguishing ice phases of test trajectories using only seven ideal reference structures of ice phases as model inputs. This demonstrates the generalizability of the score-based denoiser model in facilitating phase identification for complex molecular systems. The proposed classification strategy can be broadly applied to investigate structural evolution and phase identification for a wide range of materials, offering new insights into the fundamental understanding of water and other complex systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗