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At least 343 records · Page 19

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗

Advancement of Certification Methods and Applications for Industrial Deployments of Components Derived from Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

One goal of the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies subprogram, within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) crosscutting technology development program, is to advance the qualification and certification of parts and components created via additive manufacturing (AM). AM offers a new paradigm for the design and optimization of new nuclear components, and for observing and tracking manufacturing performance and potential defects in a way that is not possible with traditional approaches. Tracking and evaluating these in situ data can lead to the estimation of local material properties and, with the use of engineering analysis tools, the estimation of component performance during operation. To achieve these objectives, a digital platform certification approach was developed and is summarized in this report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of the Distributed Ledger Technology for Energy Sector Industrial and Operational Applications Using the MITRE ATT&CK® ICS Matrix

In recent times, Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) has gained significant attention for its potential application in the energy sector. Utilizing blockchain and DLT has demonstrated the ability to enhance the resilience of the electric infrastructure, which will support a more flexible infrastructure and advance grid modernization. However, the deployment of these technologies increases the overall attack surface. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices have been developed to document an adversary’s tactics and techniques based on real-world observations. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices provide a common taxonomy for offense and defense and have become a valuable conceptual tool across multiple cybersecurity disciplines for conveying threat intelligence, performing testing through red teaming or adversary emulation, and enhancing network and system defenses against intrusions. The MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) matrix was created to provide knowledge about adversary behavior in the ICS technology domain. This study analyzes the relevance of various tactics and techniques across a seven-layer DLT engineering and cybersecurity stack, known as the DLT stack, designed by the Cybersecurity Taskforce under IEEE P2418.5 - Standard for Blockchain in Energy working group sponsored by Power and Energy Systems - Smart Buildings, Loads and Customer Systems (PES/SBLC) Technical Committee. Additionally, this paper identifies specific mitigation strategies tailored to the energy ICS environment

42 ENGINEERING↗

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

National Reactor Innovation Center NRC Early Site Permit Roadmap

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in Idaho Falls, Idaho, was authorized under the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (Public Law 115–248) to provide private sector technology developers with resources and infrastructure for testing, demonstration, and performance assessment to accelerate deployment of new advanced reactor technology concepts. NRIC’s mission is to enable clean, affordable, reliable energy by supporting U.S. government investments in nuclear energy research, development, demonstration, and commercialization of new nuclear energy systems. It intends to provide existing facilities and other undeveloped and previously developed sites at INL to advanced reactor vendors for prototype technology testing and deployment. Some of these demonstration projects may be subject to DOE authorization, while other projects may require approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to construction and operation. NRIC and INL are considering whether to pursue one or more ESPs to help facilitate new reactor deployment at the INL Site. An ESP would allow early investment in licensing infrastructure in advance of a reactor design being ready to deploy. Through the ESPs, NRIC would help reduce the cost and time required to deploy demonstration reactors at the INL Site. This also will allow INL to bring its nuclear and siting experience to the ESP development process allowing for better and more efficient improvements and utilization of the Site. A preapproved ESP at INL will also remove the uncertainty of NRC siting approvals from the demonstration project proponents, who may not be well positioned to complete the analyses in a timely manner. The purpose of this NRIC ESP roadmap is to provide rigor and understanding needed for INL and DOE decision-makers to make data-informed decisions on pursuing NRC ESPs in support of future advanced reactor demonstrations at INL. The roadmap provides a structured method for addressing potential challenges and identifying options for resolution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

National Reactor Innovation Center NRC Early Site Permit Roadmap

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in Idaho Falls, Idaho, was authorized under the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (Public Law 115–248) to provide private sector technology developers with resources and infrastructure for testing, demonstration, and performance assessment to accelerate deployment of new advanced reactor technology concepts. NRIC’s mission is to enable clean, affordable, reliable energy by supporting U.S. government investments in nuclear energy research, development, demonstration, and commercialization of new nuclear energy systems. It intends to provide existing facilities and other undeveloped and previously developed sites at INL to advanced reactor vendors for prototype technology testing and deployment. Some of these demonstration projects may be subject to DOE authorization, while other projects may require approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to construction and operation. NRIC and INL are considering whether to pursue one or more ESPs to help facilitate new reactor deployment at the INL Site. An ESP would allow early investment in licensing infrastructure in advance of a reactor design being ready to deploy. Through the ESPs, NRIC would help reduce the cost and time required to deploy demonstration reactors at the INL Site. This also will allow INL to bring its nuclear and siting experience to the ESP development process allowing for better and more efficient improvements and utilization of the Site. A preapproved ESP at INL will also remove the uncertainty of NRC siting approvals from the demonstration project proponents, who may not be well positioned to complete the analyses in a timely manner. The purpose of this NRIC ESP roadmap is to provide rigor and understanding needed for INL and DOE decision-makers to make data-informed decisions on pursuing NRC ESPs in support of future advanced reactor demonstrations at INL. The roadmap provides a structured method for addressing potential challenges and identifying options for resolution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CFD Simulation of Aerobic Gas Fermentation to Enable Commercial Conversion of CO 2 into Aquaculture and Animal Feed: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

NovoNutrients’ fermentation technology uses energy from hydrogen to transform industrial CO2 emissions into premium animal feed ingredients and other valuable products. A single NovoNutrients’ commercial manufacturing plant will capture and convert over 200,000 tons/yr of CO2 into over 100,000 tons/yr of high-protein feed. Key to the rapid and widespread deployment of the technology is maximization of its productivity and energy efficiency. Robust, physically based computational models of the technology will significantly increase productivity and efficiency, accelerating NovoNutrients’ technology to manufacturing scale. NREL has unique capabilities for creating and running such computational models. NREL's existing aerobic bioreaction computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models will be adapted to NovoNutrients’ gas fermentation (CO2, H2, O2) technology. The multiphysics CFD simulations require thousands of high-performance computing (HPC) node hours to simulate the complex geometries and contents of NovoNutrients’ industrial bioreactors. The experimentally validated CFD models were used to identify optimally efficient and productive bioreactor designs and operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Corrosion Protection and Dissimilar Material Joining for Next Generation Lightweight Vehicles

The Arconic Technology Center working with Honda R&D Americas, LLC and the Ohio State University evaluated the corrosion performance of several multi-material conditions and demonstrated the production worthiness of the Resistance Spot Riveting (RSR™) process. RSR is a new technology being developed by Howmet Fastening Systems (formerly Arconic, Inc.) that employs a fastener that is installed using conventional resistance spot welding equipment to produce multi-material joints. The goal of the 3-year project was to demonstrate the use of RSR to join aluminum to steel and aluminum to carbon fiber composites on a prototype scale. Deployment of this technology would help the automotive industry achieve an additional 10 to 20% weight reduction over high strength steels. These weight-savings to the body in white generally translates to 2.5-5.0% of overall vehicle curb weight. The resulting total weight-savings could provide a 1.5% to 3.0% total improvement in fuel efficiency for vehicles that incorporate RSR for multi-material joining. The RSR technology addresses several production barriers to achieving DOE’s fuel efficiency targets including eliminating the need of additional capital for new joining technologies and the flexibility to process conventional steel and multi-material structures with the same equipment. Additionally, the trend towards ultra-high strength steels limits the availability of conventional joining technologies that can effectively process these multi-material combinations. In order to accomplish these goals, the following program milestones were completed by the team: 1) Developed RSR process parameters, producing multi-material joints for mechanical testing and corrosion assessments. 2) Conducted corrosion evaluation of RSR and baseline joints assembled between automotive type aluminum alloys, steels, and carbon fiber using several corrosion mitigation strategies. 3) Developed a production ready feed system and integrate into a robotic resistance spot welding station to simulate automotive production conditions. 4) Produced demonstration assemblies for testing and evaluation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Report to the President: A Transformational Effort on Patient Safety

The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) is the sole body of advisors from outside the federal government charged with making science, technology, and innovation policy recommendations to the President and the White House. Established by Executive Order, it is an independent Federal Advisory Committee comprised of distinguished individuals from industry, academia, and non-profit organizations with a range of perspectives and expertise. On September 7, 2023, PCAST sent a report to the President with recommendations to develop and deploy policies and technologies that will improve patient safety in the United States, dramatically reducing harms to patients and healthcare workers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Data requirements for improving the Quantitative Risk Assessment of liquid hydrogen storage systems

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) supports the development of risk-informed safety codes and standards which are employed to enable the safe deployment of hydrogen technologies essential to decarbonize the transportation sector. System reliability data is a necessary input for rigorous QRA. Here, the lack of reliability data for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems located on site at fueling stations limits the use of QRAs. In turn, this hinders the ability to develop the necessary safety codes and standards that enable worldwide deployment of these stations. Through a QRA-based analysis of a LH 2 storage system, this work focuses on identifying relevant scenario and probability data currently available and ascertaining future data collection requirements regarding risks specific to liquid hydrogen releases. The work developed consists of the analysis of a general bulk LH 2 storage system design located at a hydrogen fueling station. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and traditional QRA modeling tools such as Event Sequence Diagrams (ESD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are employed to identify, rank, and model risk scenarios related to the release of LH 2 . Based on this analysis, scenario and reliability data needs to add LH 2 -related components to QRA are identified with the purpose of improving the future safety and risk assessment of these systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

TEAMER: Supporting model output files for Environmental Compliance Framework for Floating Tidal Turbines, Cook Inlet, AK

Orbital Marine Power (Orbital) is seeking to deploy their floating tidal technology in US waters and has considered the possibility of deploying in temperate waters including the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and the Western Passage, Maine. It has become apparent that some of the most promising tidal sites in the US are located in high latitudes, within the State of Alaska. Within the state, the most likely sites for grid-scale tidal energy are in Cook Inlet, with the largest city (Anchorage) located on the shores, ready and able to absorb the electrical output of a commercial scale tidal development. Through the TEAMER project, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a framework to select environmentally compliant sites partially based on hydrodynamic model output. This uploaded dataset summarizes the key hydrodynamic model output files discussed in the TEAMER project report. Please unzip the file to see actual data files and the ReadMe file. This project is part of the TEAMER RFTS 4 (request for technical support) program.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Materials FY 2021 Annual Progress Report

The Materials Technology subprogram supports the VTO’s mission to accelerate the deployment of clean energy technology toward achieving net-zero emissions in the transportation sector. Lighter vehicles with more efficient powertrains reduce energy use, decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and save consumers money.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A mixed integer linear programming approach for the design of chemical process families

Tackling climate change goals requires widespread deployment of process technology variants across many decentralized sites with different geographical, environmental, and operational requirements. Conventional engineering approaches focus on unique designs for each installation (process variant), while missing opportunities for manufacturing standardization. Here, instead we seek to optimize a process platform of common unit designs while simultaneously designing an entire family of process variants that make use of that platform. This reduces engineering effort, deployment timelines, and manufacturing costs. We propose a nonlinear generalized disjunctive programming formulation and convert this to an efficient mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation through discretization of the design space. We formulate our optimization in Pyomo with costing from IDAES, and we demonstrate the computational performance and solution quality on a water treatment desalination system from the PARETO framework and a carbon capture system built in Aspen Plus as part of CCSI2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future

Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO 2 yr -1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO 2 emissions—based on current-day assumptions regarding price and performance. DAC in particular could exacerbate demand for energy and water, yet it would avoid the most severe market-mediated effects of land-use competition from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation. This could result in staple food crop prices rising by approximately fivefold relative to 2010 levels in many parts of the Global South, raising equity concerns about the deployment of NETs. Overall, these results highlight that delays in aggressive global mitigation action greatly increase the requirement for DAC to meet climate targets, and correspondingly, energy and water impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Roles and Impacts of PV-Battery Hybrids in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity Supply

In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (DOE 2021). We employ similar scenario definitions in the same ReEDS capacity expansion model, but we perform two versions of each scenario: one in which PV and battery technologies must be deployed separately (No Hybrids), and one in which the model has the option of deploying them together as PVB hybrids (With Hybrids). By comparing the No Hybrids and With Hybrids versions of each scenario, we isolate the impacts of hybridization on the outcomes and findings of the Solar Futures Study. We find that PVB hybrid configurations capture a sizable share of PV deployment, and the highest-net-value PVB hybrid configuration depends strongly on policy conditions. A power sector decarbonization policy generally increases the value proposition of a more forward-looking PVB hybrid configuration that involves significant oversizing of the PV arrays, a larger battery (which facilitates greater recovery and utilization of otherwise clipped energy), and a higher capacity factor. The growing deployment of PVB hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV capacity, such that total installed PV capacity is largely unaffected by the availability of PVB hybrid configurations. However, the higher capacity factors associated with PVB hybrid configurations drive a modest (1-2 percentage point) increase in PV's share of U.S. electricity supply in 2050. Finally, introducing the PVB hybrid configurations influences the future role and makeup of battery storage technologies, and it reduces the required transmission expansion, particularly under scenarios that involve a power sector decarbonization policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Demand-Side Opportunity: The Roles of Distributed Solar and Building Energy Systems in a Decarbonized Grid

Building energy systems represent a significant and largely untapped demand-side grid resource. Buildings use about 75% of electricity in the United States, including around 80% of peak demand, meaning that changes in building energy use have significant implications for grid operations. Building energy technologies-including energy-efficient devices, flexible loads, and energy storage-can be coordinated and aggregated to perform similar functions as centralized grid assets. Recent advances in information and communication (ICT) technologies have significantly improved building energy technology automation, coordination, and aggregation capabilities. With declining costs and technological advances, building energy systems can increasingly compete with conventional grid assets such as natural gas plants. Building energy technologies enable the deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV). Energy-efficient buildings allow DPV to meet greater shares of building load while flexible loads and energy storage can reshape building load profiles to optimize the on-site use of DPV. Optimized on-site use of DPV increases the value proposition for DPV adoption and can help utilities cost-effectively integrate higher levels of DPV penetration. Together, DPV and building energy technologies could help grids achieve deep decarbonization more quickly and cost-effectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Meeting the Challenges of Modern Transit through the Integration of Traditional Transit, On-Demand Micro-Transit Services and Vehicle Automation - A Case Study in Chandler, Arizona

Current technology trends of vehicle automation, electrification and on-demand transit are providing new tools to develop effective public mobility services, yet need to be balanced with traditional modes to serve the spectrum of demand effectively and efficiently. Automated vehicle transportation network company (TNC) services, better known as 'Robotaxis' are beginning to proliferate and scale across the US, with Waymo as the lead commercial entity. Chandler, AZ was the first fully automated deployment of Waymo technology. Chandler was also one of the first municipalities in Arizona to roll out micro-transit service to its citizens in 2022. At present the Chandler Flex micro-transit program is beginning to partner with Waymo to augment micro-transit services during peak demands, another first in the nation. However, the mix of services in Chandler relies not only on new technology, but also on traditional modes including fixed route transit and para-transit services. These are blended and balanced such that both old and new modes are applied within the context in which each excel. This presentation will provide background on the Chandler, AZ public mobility services, and the performance metrics that govern their use and selection within the spectrum of development and population density as well as socio-demographics within Chandler. Additionally, the behavioral response of the use of unmanned, automated vehicles employed to augment micro-transit is novel, the first in the nation - and initial feedback from public transit constituents in Chandler will be shared.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗