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At least 343 records · Page 19

Chlorophyll fluorescence is a potential indicator to measure photochemical efficiency in early to late soybean maturity groups under changing day lengths and temperatures

In this study, we employed chlorophyll a fluorescence technique, to indicate plant health and status in response to changing day lengths (photoperiods) and temperatures in soybean early and late maturity groups. Chlorophyll a fluorescence study indicates changes in light reactions in photosystem II. Experiments were performed for 3-day lengths (12.5, 13.5, and 14.5 h) and five temperatures (22/14°C, 26/18°C, 30/22°C, 34/26°C, and 40/32°C), respectively. The I-P phase declined for changing day lengths. Active reaction centers decreased at long day length for maturity group III. We observed that low temperatures impacted the acceptor side of photosystem II and partially impacted electron transport toward the photosystem I end electron acceptor. Results emphasized that higher temperatures (40/32°C) triggered damage at the oxygen-evolving complex and decreased electron transport and photosynthesis. We studied specific leaf areas and aboveground mass. Aboveground parameters were consistent with the fluorescence study. Chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used as a potential technique for high-throughput phenotyping methods. The traits selected in the study proved to be possible indicators to provide information on the health status of various maturity groups under changing temperatures and day lengths. These traits can also be deciding criteria for breeding programs to develop inbreed soybean lines for stress tolerance and sensitivity based on latitudinal variations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Addressing Coldwater Temperature Impairment in a Changing Climate

Climate change is concerning for fisheries professionals because increased water temperatures threaten coldwater habitats, which are vital to recreational and commercial fisheries and keystone species. The Clean Water Act provides a legal framework to identify and address water quality impairments including those associated with temperature. However, although this framework provides a basic strategy to identify impairments, develop total maximum daily loads, and reduce pollution, it does not explicitly consider the challenges of a changing climate in addressing water quality impairments. Clean Water Act administrators and fisheries professionals can facilitate temperature restoration planning and implementation using the Clean Water Act framework to link stakeholders to the management of coldwater resources. Stakeholder engagement and collaboration, robust local monitoring, and incorporating climate resilience into restoration planning and implementation will promote comprehensive management of temperature impairments and the effects of climate change on fisheries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of plasma on physical properties of water: nanocrystalline-to-amorphous phase transition and improving produce washing

Recently is was discovered in various applications that many physical and chemical properties of water change their temperature dependence between about 35 and 60 degrees Celsius. In particular, heat conductance, light absorption, and surface tension all change their temperature dependence. These drastic changes were associated with water gradually changing its mesoscopic structure: while at the higher temperatures water is a uniform media (amorphous state), at the temperatures below transition it consists of many nano-to-micro-scale clusters (crystalline state). This transition is similar to the second order phase transition. In the present paper we show that treating water with non-thermal plasma (adding plasma-created active compounds) can lower the temperature of the transition and thus cause a significant change in such physical quantities as surface tension, viscosity, freezing rate, and wettability and washability. We present analytical estimates of the transition temperature shift based on the Debye-Hückel theory. We discuss the produce-washing experiments that illustrate the predicted effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effects of Plasma on Physical Properties of Water: Nanocrystalline-to-Amorphous Phase Transition and Improving Produce Washing

Washing fresh produce using Plasma-activated water recently became a promising eco-friendly alternative to using chemical additives such as Chlorine. We discuss the produce-washing experiments that illustrate that addition of plasma to washing water is a multi-faced phenomena. Not only it increases the sterilization ability of water by killing pathogens, but it also has improved washibility: the ability to remove pathogens from the cleaning surface. We propose an explanation of these features based on the recently discoveries that many physical and chemical properties of water change their temperature dependence between about 35 and 60 degrees Celsius. In particular, heat conductance, light absorption, and surface tension all change their temperature dependence. These drastic changes were associated with water gradually changing its mesoscopic structure: while at the higher temperatures water is a uniform media (amorphous state), at the temperatures below transition it consists of many nano-to-micro-scale clusters (crystalline state). This transition is similar to the second order phase transition. In the present paper we propose that treating water with non-thermal plasma (adding plasma-created active compounds) can lower the temperature of the transition and thus cause a significant change in such physical quantities as surface tension, viscosity, freezing rate, and wettability and washability.

He, Jinjie↗

A User Guide to PARET/ANL

PARET was originally created in 1969 at what is now Idaho National Laboratory (INL), to analyze reactivity insertion events in research and test reactor cores cooled by light or heavy water, with fuel composed of either plates or pins. The use of PARET is also appropriate for fuel assemblies with curved fuel plates when their radii of curvatures are large with respect to the fuel plate thickness. The PARET/ANL version of the code has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA since the inception of the Reactor Conversion Program. Since Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) began in 1978, PARET/ANL has been benchmarked to experimental data including SPERT testing, and used to determine the expected transient behavior of a large number of reactors regardless of enrichment both inside and outside the Reactor Conversion Program. This document provides the pertinent information for the use of PARET/ANL Version 7.6. PARET/ANL models the various fueled regions of a reactor core as channels. Each of these channels consists of a single flat fuel plate/pin (including cladding and, optionally, a gap) with water coolant on each side. In slab geometry the coolant channels for a given fuel plate are of identical dimensions (mirror symmetry), but they can be of different thickness in each channel. There can be many channels, but each channel is independent and coupled only through reactivity feedback effects to the whole core. The time-dependent differential equations that represent the system are replaced by an equivalent set of finite-difference equations in space and time, which are integrated numerically. PARET/ANL uses fundamentally the same numerical scheme as RELAP5 for the time-integration of the point-kinetics equations. The one-dimensional thermal-hydraulic model includes temperature-dependent thermal properties of the solid materials, such as heat capacity and thermal conductivity, as well as the transient heat production and heat transfer from the fuel meat to the coolant. Temperature- and pressure-dependent thermal properties of the coolant such as enthalpy, density, thermal conductivity, and viscosity are also used in determining parameters such as friction factors and heat transfer coefficients. The code first determines the steady-state solution for the initial state. Then the solution of the transient is obtained by integration in time and space. Multiple heat transfer, DNB and flow instability correlations are available. The code was originally developed to model reactors cooled by an open loop, which was adequate for rapid transients in pool-type cores. An external loop model appropriate for Miniature Neutron Source Reactors (MNSR’s) was also added to PARET/ANL to model natural circulation within the vessel, heat transfer from the vessel to pool and heat loss by evaporation from the pool. PARET/ANL also contains models for decay heat after shutdown, control rod reactivity versus time or position, time-dependent pump flow, and loss-of-flow event with flow reversal as well as logic for trips on period, power, and flow. Feedback reactivity effects from coolant density changes and temperature changes are represented by tables. Feedback reactivity from fuel heat-up (Doppler Effect) is represented by a four-term polynomial in powers of fuel temperature. Photo-neutrons produced in beryllium or in heavy water may be included in the point-kinetics equations by using additional delayed neutron groups.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Temperature and anion ligand field dependence of LnCl 3 (Ln = Nd, Dy, Sm) electronic absorption spectra in LiCl–KCl eutectic molten salt

A comprehensive knowledge of the coordination, bonding, and speciation of elements in molten salt mixtures is necessary to understand and predict the chemical and physical properties of the salt. Absorption spectroscopy can yield information about the chemistry of species of interest in alkali halide molten salt mixtures by revealing information about the electronic structure and transitions of those species. In this study, ultraviolet (UV), visible (vis), and near-infrared (NIR) absorption spectroscopy was used to examine changes to the electronic structure of trivalent Nd, Sm, and Dy in LiCl–KCl eutectic molten salt with changes in temperature and the anion composition of the melt. With increasing temperature, changes to spectral features suggest a distortion of the coordination complexes. Changes to lineshape with the substitution of alternative halide anions were examined and analyzed, revealing differences in the coordination for I – versus F – with the lanthanides. Gaussian peak fitting was used to show that the changes in lineshape with the progressive addition of F – anions can be explained by the superposition of a set of absorption bands from complexes with all Cl – anion ligands and a set of blueshifted absorption bands from complexes containing both F – and Cl – anion ligands. Finally, this work yields a new method to analyze and interpret change to electronic absorption spectra for f-block elements dissolved in alkali halide molten salts as well as new observations of the interactions of larger and smaller halide anions with lanthanides in Cl – -based molten salts.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physical-chemical-mechanical quantitative assessment of the microstructural evolution in Portland-limestone cement pastes exposed to magnesium sulfate attack at low temperature

The changes in structural integrity and microstructure of Portland-limestone cement pastes were investigated in the course of magnesium sulfate attack at low temperature. A deterioration front, consisting of three distinct layers (brucite, gypsum, leached cement matrix), swelled in time due to the expansive nature of the deterioration products, generating cracks and subsequently detaching from the sound cement matrix, continuously promoting the process. Gypsum and thaumasite characterized the leached matrix, which experienced extensive cross-linking of the aluminosilicate structures, as a result of decalcification and dealumination of the calcium silicate hydrates (C(A)SH), impairing the overall mechanical performance. CSH of low packing density was most severely affected by the process, as confirmed by the significant drop in nano-mechanical properties. The increased rate of deterioration with limestone content was tentatively attributed to the prevalent morphology of the CSH phase. Results were validated by thermodynamic simulations, indicating that the real systems did not reach equilibrium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

w Mel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Significance Microbes regulate nutrient flux and carbon storage within ecosystems, making them essential to the global carbon cycle and ecosystem responses to climate change. Understanding how climate change will alter microbial communities and how this will feed back to influence the pace of climate change requires linking processes across levels of organization, from individual organisms to whole ecosystems. We show that the physical characteristics (traits) of protist species influence how their populations will respond to changes in temperature. These species-level temperature responses also alter the composition, dynamics, and functioning of whole microbial communities. Using traits to understand how complex, multilevel microbial processes change with temperature can help us anticipate possible consequences of rapid global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ozone mitigates extended growing season and enhanced vegetation greenness driven by environmental change

Rising temperature and elevated CO 2 concentrations lead to extended growing seasons and enhanced vegetation greenness in terrestrial ecosystems, especially across the Northern Hemisphere. However, whether and to what extent surface ozone, an anthropogenic environmental factor, affects vegetation phenology and greenness remains unexplored at a large scale. Integrating ground-based ozone observations with multiple satellite observations, we demonstrate that surface ozone significantly shortened the growing season by delaying start of season and advancing end of season. Additionally, ozone reduced growing-season vegetation greenness, as reflected in decreased annual accumulated Enhanced Vegetation Index and maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index. These impacts show pronounced spatial heterogeneity, varying in magnitude across the United States, Europe, and China over the past decade, highlighting ozone’s diverse impact on vegetation across regions. Our study predicts that continuously increasing surface ozone concentration will mitigate warming-driven lengthening the growing season by 2 to 4 days, reduce maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index by 0.4% to 8.3%, and reduce annual accumulated Enhanced Vegetation Index by 1.0% to 5.6% in 2050 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 scenario. Our findings highlight the imperative need for strategic surface ozone regulation to optimize vegetation health and maximize the capacity for carbon sequestration.

Yin, Hao [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United ↗

Investigating the linkage between simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly based on multi-model and perturbed parameter ensembles

It remains a challenge for climate models to correctly capture the relationship between precipitation and ENSO. This studyexamines the linkage between the simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly during borealwinter based on the multi-model ensemble from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (AMIP5) and perturbedparameter ensemble (PPE) with the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) atmospheric model. The AMIP5 models have large biases insimulating the tropical precipitation anomaly during El Niño, such as the shifts of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The inter-model differences show that the precipitation change in response to seasurface temperature (SST) change increases with enhanced precipitation climatology. The ENSO-related precipitation anomalycan also be related to the spatial distribution of the mean-state precipitation. The simulated ITCZ/SPCZ displacements aresignificantly correlated with the spatial precipitation-SST relationship in the mean state. Models with stronger mean-stateprecipitation-SST relationship also produce stronger SPCZ/ITCZ displacements. The mean-state tropical precipitation also hasstrong impacts on the ENSO-related precipitation anomalies over East Asia. In the BCC PPE, the connection between the mean-state precipitation and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly is overall consistent with that in AMIP5. Parameters associated withthe low-cloud and deep convection processes are the most influential ones for the precipitation simulations in BCC. Comparedwith the version in AMIP5, the new BCC model can better simulate the precipitation climatology and the relationship betweenENSO and precipitation over southern China. These results have important implications for model development and model-basedclimate predictions.

Yang, Ben↗

Metrology for femtosecond pulsed x-ray heating in diamond anvil cell experiments at the European XFEL: Revisiting the iron phase diagram up to 150 GPa

The development of pulsed intense x-ray sources, such as free electron laser, offers new avenues for high pressure experiments. Here, we study the feasibility and metrology of x-ray heating in diamond anvil cells at the European x-ray free electron laser. This method enables one to volumetrically heat the sample while inhibiting chemical migration and probing the crystallographic structure of the sample throughout the heating with a high repetition rate. We focus our study on iron, whose phase diagram is well established up to 100 GPa, to explore the possibilities and limitations of this technique. We volumetrically heat iron samples at starting pressures ranging from 10 to 138 GPa, using the x-ray beam pulsed at 4.5 MHz in a serial pump-and-probe experimental design. Experimental challenges arise from temperature gradients within the sample, changes in temperature at the 100 ns timescale, the difficulty of direct temperature estimates, the effect of thermal pressure, and the presence of metastable crystallites due to rapid cycles of heating and cooling. Hence, we develop a multi-crystal-like data processing method that allows us to account for sample heterogeneity in probed conditions. We then calibrate our measurements using known physical properties of iron under pressure. Thermal pressure in our experiments increases from 4% of the isochoric prediction at 10 GPa to 23% at 138 GPa, and we show that our data are in agreement with most previous observations of iron in this pressure range. The method can now be implemented at higher pressures and temperatures and on materials with unknown phase diagrams.

Materials science↗