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At least 343 records · Page 19

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. In this study, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2 °C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71 °C and 1.43 °C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Physical Relationships Between Atmospheric State, Fluxes, and Boundary Layer Stability at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica from 24 November 2015 through 3 January 2017 were used to characterize the physical relationships between boundary layer stability and atmospheric state and fluxes. The basis of this analysis was self-organizing maps (SOMs), a neural network algorithm, used to identify the range of potential temperature profiles present in the twice-daily radiosonde data during the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) campaign. The SOM identified profiles ranging from strongly stable to weakly stable regimes over the lowest 500 m of the atmosphere. It was found that in the winter (MJJA), moderate and strongly stable regimes occur most frequently (61%), while weakly stable regimes dominate in the summer (DJ, 83.4%). The mechanisms responsible for the dominance of different stability regimes in each season were analyzed to determine why these regimes occur with varying frequency throughout the year. This analysis found that wind speed variations and radiative cooling are responsible for the stability observed in the winter, radiative warming, as well as weaker wind speeds, are responsible for summer weak stability, and stability variations in the transition seasons (FMA, SON) are characterized by a change in sign of net radiation with increasing stability, as wind speed changes little across stability regimes. Low-level jets were observed to occur about 50% of the time below areas of enhanced stability aloft and were observed most frequently in the transition seasons. The boundary layer depth, as determined by the Bulk Richardson number, was found to decrease with increasing stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Seasonal Snow-Cover Change on the Observed and Simulated State of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in a High-Altitude Mountain Valley

The structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under clear-sky fair weather conditions over mountainous terrain is dominated by the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance and thus strongly depends on surface snow cover. We use data from three passive ground-based infrared spectrometers deployed in the East River Valley in Colorado's Rocky Mountains to investigate the response of the thermal ABL structure to changes in surface energy balance during the seasonal transition from low to high snow cover. Temperature profiles were retrieved from the infrared radiances using the optimal estimation physical retrieval Tropospheric Remotely Observed Profiling via Optimal Estimation. A nocturnal surface inversion formed in the valley during clear-sky days, which was subsequently mixed out during daytime with the development of a convective boundary layer when snow cover was low. Over high snow cover, a very shallow convective boundary layer formed, above which the inversion persisted through the daytime hours. We compare these observations to NOAA's operational High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh model and find large warm biases on clear-sky days resulting from the model's inability to form strong nocturnal inversions and to maintain the stable stratification in the valley during daytime when there was snow on the ground. We suggest several factors contributing to the large model errors. These are (a) the inability of the model to represent well-developed thermally driven flows likely due to the too coarse horizontal grid spacing (3 km), (b) too much convective mixing during daytime, and (c) too strong vertical coupling between the valley atmosphere and the free troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Offshore Low‐Level Jets Off the U.S. East Coast Reveal Systematic Biases in ERA5 and HRRR

Low-level jets (LLJs)—wind speed maxima typically occurring a few hundred meters above the surface—are common off the U.S. East Coast and influence many atmospheric processes with societal importance, including cloud formation, aviation safety, and search-and-rescue. However, their vertical structure and frequency remain poorly quantified due to limited offshore observations. This study presents new scanning Doppler LiDAR and infrared spectroradiometer data from the 2024 summer deployment of an offshore barge during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 3. These coupled wind and temperature profiles provide unprecedented resolution to assess LLJ behavior and model performance. LLJs occurred in over 21% of observed profiles, with a weak diurnal preference for nighttime and early morning hours and maximum winds typically near 300 m. Both ERA5 and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh analysis underestimate jet wind speeds and misrepresent the boundary layer thermal structure. These results highlight persistent model biases and the critical need for high-resolution offshore observations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables layer-by-layer process innovation for photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial-and-error endeavor, which lacks full transparency of the underlying physics and relies on user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer-by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond traditional black-box optimization. Our Bayesian network approach links a key GaAs process variable (growth temperature) to material descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency). For this purpose, we combine a Bayesian inference framework with a neural network surrogate device-physics model that is 100× faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model and only a small number of experimental samples, our approach reduces significantly the time-consuming intervention and characterization required by the experimentalist. As a demonstration of our method, in only five metal organic chemical vapor depositions, we identify a superior growth temperature profile for the window, bulk, and back surface field layer of a GaAs solar cell, without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above traditional grid search methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Planar thermal Hall effect of topological bosons in the Kitaev magnet α-RuCl 3

The honeycomb magnet α-RuCl 3 has attracted considerable interest because it is proximate to the Kitaev Hamiltonian whose excitations are Majoranas and vortices. The thermal Hall conductivity κ xy of Majorana fermions is predicted to be half-quantized. Half-quantization of κxy/T (T, temperature) was recently reported, but this observation has proven difficult to reproduce. Here, we report detailed measurements of κ xy on α-RuCl3 with the magnetic field B ∥ a (zigzag axis). In our experiment, κ xy /T is observed to be strongly temperature dependent between 0.5 and 10 K. We show that its temperature profile matches the distinct form expected for topological bosonic modes in a Chern-insulator-like model. Our analysis yields magnon band energies in agreement with spectroscopic experiments. At high B, the spin excitations evolve into magnon-like modes with a Chern number of ~1. In conclusion, the bosonic character is incompatible with half-quantization of κ xy /T.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evidence of hydrogen-helium immiscibility at Jupiter-interior conditions

The phase behaviour of warm dense hydrogen–helium (H–He) mixtures affects our understanding of the evolution of Jupiter and Saturn and their interior structures. For example, precipitation of He from a H–He atmosphere at about 1–10 megabar and a few thousand kelvin has been invoked to explain both the excess luminosity of Saturn, and the depletion of He and neon (Ne) in Jupiter’s atmosphere as observed by the Galileo probe. But despite its importance, H–He phase behaviour under relevant planetary conditions remains poorly constrained because it is challenging to determine computationally and because the extremes of temperature and pressure are difficult to reach experimentally. Here we report that appropriate temperatures and pressures can be reached through laser-driven shock compression of H 2 –He samples that have been pre-compressed in diamond-anvil cells. This allows us to probe the properties of H–He mixtures under Jovian interior conditions, revealing a region of immiscibility along the Hugoniot. A clear discontinuous change in sample reflectivity indicates that this region ends above 150 gigapascals at 10,200 kelvin and that a more subtle reflectivity change occurs above 93 gigapascals at 4,700 kelvin. Considering pressure–temperature profiles for Jupiter, these experimental immiscibility constraints for a near-protosolar mixture suggest that H–He phase separation affects a large fraction—we estimate about 15 per cent of the radius—of Jupiter’s interior. Furthermore, this finding provides microphysical support for Jupiter models that invoke a layered interior to explain Juno and Galileo spacecraft observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Explainable machine learning for incipient anomaly detection in compact molten salt heat exchanger with overlapping feature distributions

High-temperature molten salt-cooled reactors (MSCRs) are a promising next-generation nuclear technology option, offering efficient power conversion and inherent safety features. However, the reliability of these systems depends on the robust operation of heat exchangers (HXs), which are susceptible to failure due to temperature gradients and channel plugging caused by fluid freezing. Conventional monitoring methods, relying on inlet and outlet measurements, lack the spatial resolution needed to detect early-stage faults. We propose a novel design of a compact salt-to-salt matrix-type HX design consisting of interleaved arrays of parallel tubes, with integrated synthetic fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) to enable localized detection of incipient faults. To evaluate performance of this design, we generate high-fidelity synthetic data using heat transfer computational modeling to simulate channel plugging, and introduce sensor noise for realistic modeling of measurements. The dataset comprises of 97% normal operation and 3% anomaly cases, with each anomaly class representing 1% of the data. These early anomalies result in overlapping temperature profiles between normal and faulty channels, producing a non-separable dataset that challenges traditional classification techniques. We benchmark eight supervised machine learning (ML) models and demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance. To improve transparency, we develop an explainability framework combining Shapley values and partially ordered sets (POSETs) to quantify and structurally analyze feature importance. This approach identifies both dominant predictors and ambiguous feature relationships, enhancing trust and interpretability. Our results highlight the potential of combining DTS and explainable ML with intelligent feature selection to improve predictive maintenance and ensure operational resilience in advanced nuclear systems.

Prantikos, Konstantinos [Argonne National Laborato↗

Charge exchange recombination spectroscopy at Wendelstein 7-X

The Charge Exchange Recombination Spectroscopy (CXRS) diagnostic has become a routine diagnostic on almost all major high temperature fusion experimental devices. For the optimized stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X), a highly flexible and extensive CXRS diagnostic has been built to provide high-resolution local measurements of several important plasma parameters using the recently commissioned neutral beam heating. This paper outlines the design specifics of the W7-X CXRS system and gives examples of the initial results obtained, to include typical ion temperature profiles for several common heating scenarios, toroidal flow and radial electric field derived from velocity measurements, beam attenuation via beam emission spectra, and normalized impurity density profiles under some typical plasma conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Nonlinear global gyrokinetic delta- f turbulence simulations in a quasi-axisymmetric stellarator

We use the global gyrokinetic stellarator code XGC-S to look at turbulence physics in geometry of the proposed quasi-axisymmetric stellarator, QUASAR. In this article, the XGC-S code is first verified for nonlinear simulations of ion temperature gradient-driven turbulence by a successful benchmark with the established nonlinear tokamak code XGC1 in a CYCLONE-like tokamak case. We then apply the XGC-S code to QUASAR for nonlinear turbulence physics. We find that the highly poloidally localized linear mode gives way to a more evenly distributed nonlinear turbulent structure. Furthermore, the radial extent of the mode increases and occupies a large fraction of the volume, despite the initially localized temperature profile, as the profiles relax.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A new explanation of the sawtooth phenomena in tokamaks

The ubiquitous sawtooth phenomena in tokamaks are so named because the central temperature rises slowly and falls rapidly, similar to the blades of a saw. First discovered in 1974, it has so far eluded a theoretical explanation that is widely accepted and consistent with experimental observations. We propose here a new theory for the sawtooth phenomena in auxiliary heated tokamaks, which is motivated by our recent understanding of “magnetic flux pumping.” In this theory, the role of the (m, n) = (1, 1) mode is to generate a dynamo voltage, which keeps the central safety factor, q 0 , just above 1.0 with low central magnetic shear. When central heating is present, the temperature on axis will increase until at some point, and the configuration abruptly becomes unstable to ideal MHD interchange modes with equal poloidal and toroidal mode numbers, m = n > 1. It is these higher order modes and the localized magnetic stochasticity they produce that cause the sudden crash of the temperature profile, not magnetic reconnection. In conclusion, long time 3D MHD simulations demonstrate these phenomena, which appear to be consistent with many experimental observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Radiation furnace for synchrotron dark-field x-ray microscopy experiments

We present a multi-purpose radiation furnace designed for x-ray experiments at synchrotrons. The furnace is optimized specifically for dark-field x-ray microscopy (DFXM) of crystalline materials at beamline ID06 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility. The furnace can reach temperatures above 1200 °C with a thermal stability better than 10 °C, with heating and cooling rates up to 30 K/s. The non-contact heating design enables samples to be heated either in air or in a controlled atmosphere contained within a capillary tube. The temperature was calibrated via the thermal expansion of an α-iron grain. Temperature profiles in the y and z axes were measured by scanning a thermocouple through the focal spot of the radiation furnace. In the current configuration of the beamline, this furnace can be used for DFXM, near-field x-ray topography, bright-field x-ray nanotomography, high-resolution reciprocal space mapping, and limited powder diffraction experiments. As a first application, we present a DFXM case study on isothermal heating of a commercially pure single crystal of aluminum.

Yildirim, C. (ORCID:0000000249690685)↗

Correction and verification of x-ray imaging crystal spectrometer analysis on Wendelstein 7-X through x-ray ray tracing

X-ray ray tracing is used to develop ion-temperature corrections for the analysis of the X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectrometer (XICS) used at Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) and perform verification on the analysis methods. The XICS is a powerful diagnostic able to measure ion-temperature, electron-temperature, plasma flow, and impurity charge state densities. While these systems are relatively simple in design, accurate characterization of the instrumental response and validation of analysis techniques are difficult to perform experimentally due to the requirement of extended x-ray sources. For this reason, a ray tracing model has been developed that allows characterization of the spectrometer and verification of the analysis methods while fully considering the real geometry of the XICS system and W7-X plasma. Through the use of ray tracing, several important corrections have been found that must be accounted for in order to accurately reconstruct the ion-temperature profiles. The sources of these corrections are described along with their effect on the analyzed profiles. The implemented corrections stem from three effects: (1) effect of sub-pixel intensity distribution during de-curving and spatial binning, (2) effect of sub-pixel intensity distribution during forward model evaluation and generation of residuals, and (3) effect of defocus and spherical aberrations on the instrumental response. Possible improvements to the forward model and analysis procedures are explored, along with a discussion of trade-offs in terms of computational complexity. Finally, the accuracy of the tomographic inversion technique in stellarator geometry is investigated, providing for the first time a verification exercise for inversion accuracy in stellarator geometry and a complete XICS analysis tool-chain.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Fast modulating electron cyclotron emission (FMECE) diagnostic for tokamaks

Utilizing variable-frequency channels, e.g., yttrium iron garnet (YIG) bandpass filters, in the intermediate frequency (IF) section of an electron cyclotron emission (ECE) radiometer facilitates flexibility in the volume viewed by the ECE channels as well as high resolution electron temperature and temperature fluctuation measurements in tokamaks. Fast modulating electron cyclotron emission (FMECE), a stand-alone IF section with eight channels, is a novel application of YIG filters for real-time electron temperature gradient and gradient scale length measurements. Key to FMECE is a simultaneous input/output data acquisition unit, as well as a modified type of YIG filters, which is capable of fast switching of their center (set) frequencies with a frequency slew rate of 600 μs/GHz. A new FMECE has been implemented and tested on the DIII-D tokamak, demonstrating its capability in real-time gradient measurements. Here, the data presented here shows that FMECE can identify flattening in the electron temperature profile; the latter can be used as a sensor for real time monitoring and control of plasma instabilities. Implementation and application are planned for the EAST tokamak.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Probabilistic effects of porosity and chemical kinetics on the shock initiation of an octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) based explosive

In this work, we investigate the effects of porosity and chemical reactivity on the shock initiation of an HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine)-based polymer bonded explosive due to thin flyer impact using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations. Microstructural samples are computationally generated, and the calculated shock response is compared to experiments. The sample dimensions are 0.1×1.05 mm 2 , and each sample accounts for grain scale heterogeneities, including randomized grain morphology and pore spacing. Simulations are performed using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian multi-physics code ALE3D. Chemistry and equation of states are handled with LLNL's thermochemical code Cheetah. We employ a modified Arrhenius-based chemical kinetics model that scales the temperature exponent fitting parameter with flyer shock conditions. This new model is calibrated to the mean response of experimental shock initiation thresholds for three separate Kapton flyer thicknesses. A simplified shock initiation criterion is proposed, which classifies the macroscale initiation response based on cross-sectional temperature profiles of the shocked sample. This criterion is used to further investigate the probabilistic response of the sample to variations in the mean porosity and chemical kinetics rate, and we find an inverse correlation between the shock pressure and the confidence interval of the experimental threshold velocity. Furthermore, the methodology presented in this work for quantifying the probabilistic nature of shock initiation is material agnostic. These mesoscale studies may be used to inform continuum scale models and expedite the development of future, tailored energetic formulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scaling patch analysis of turbulent planar plume

Proper scaling in turbulent planar plumes is investigated in this study using a scaling patch approach. Based on the scaled boundary conditions, a proper velocity scale for the mean axial flow is the plume centerline velocity U ref = U ctr , and a proper temperature scale for the temperature excess is Θ ref = T ctr – T ∞ , where T ctr is the plume centerline temperature and T ∞ is the ambient fluid temperature. By seeking an admissible scaling, a key concept in the scaling patch approach, for the mean continuity, mean momentum, and mean energy equations, respectively, the following is found: (1) a proper scale for the mean transverse flow is V ref = ( d δ / d x ) U ctr , where d δ / d x is the growth rate of the plume width. (2) A proper scale for the Reynolds shear stress is R vu , ref = U ctr V ref = ( d δ / d x ) U ctr 2 , a mix of the scales for the mean axial and transverse flows. (3) A proper scale for the turbulent heat flux is R v θ , ref = V ref Θ ctr , a mix of the scales for the mean transverse flow and mean temperature excess. The mean transverse flow thus plays a critical role in the scaling of turbulent planar plumes. Approximate functions are developed for the scaled mean transverse flow, Reynolds shear stress, and turbulent temperature flux, and are found to agree favorably with experimental and numerical simulation data. The integral analysis of the mean momentum equation yields a Richardson number Ri, which remains invariant in the axial direction. The Richardson number is defined as Ri = def g β Θ ctr δ t / ( U ctr V ref ) ≈ 1 / 2 , where g is the gravitational acceleration, β is the thermal expansion coefficient, and δ t is the plume half-width based on the mean temperature profile. This Richardson number arises directly from the scaling patch analysis of the mean momentum equation, including both the streamwise and transverse velocity scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗