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DOE OSTI2025

An intercomparison of wall fluxes in a turbulent thermal convection chamber: Direct numerical simulations and wall-modeled large-eddy simulations enhanced by machine learning

Thermal convection in a closed chamber is driven by a warm bottom, a cold top, and side walls at various temperatures. Although wall fluxes are the source of convection energy, accurately modeling these fluxes (i.e., the wall model) is challenging. In large-eddy simulations (LESs), many wall models are traditionally derived from the canonical boundary layer, which may be unsuitable for thermal convection bounded by both horizontal and vertical walls. This study conducts a model intercomparison of dry convection in a cubic-meter chamber using three direct numerical simulations (DNSs) and four LESs with different wall models. The LESs employ traditional wall models, a new wall model employing physics-aware neural networks, and a refined grid near the walls. The experiment involves four cases with varying sidewall temperatures. Our results show that LESs capture the main flow features and the trends of mean fluxes. The physics-aware neural networks and refined wall grids can improve the temporally averaged local fluxes when the large-scale circulation has a preferred direction. Even without the local improvement of wall fluxes, the LES flow quantities (temperature and velocities) can still largely match those in DNSs, provided the mean flux largely matches the DNSs. Additionally, DNSs reveal that a variation in corner treatments has minimal impacts on the flow quantities away from corners. Finally, LESs underestimate the mean fluxes of the entire wall due to their inability to resolve corner regions, but their mean flux away from the corner can better match DNS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Time lagged ordinal partition networks for capturing dynamics of continuous dynamical systems

We investigate a generalised version of the recently proposed ordinal partition time series to network transformation algorithm. First, we introduce a fixed time lag for the elements of each partition that is selected using techniques from traditional time delay embedding. The resulting partitions define regions in the embedding phase space that are mapped to nodes in the network space. Edges are allocated between nodes based on temporal succession thus creating a Markov chain representation of the time series. We then apply this new transformation algorithm to time series generated by the Rössler system and find that periodic dynamics translate to ring structures whereas chaotic time series translate to band or tube-like structures—thereby indicating that our algorithm generates networks whose structure is sensitive to system dynamics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that simple network measures including the mean out degree and variance of out degrees can track changes in the dynamical behaviour in a manner comparable to the largest Lyapunov exponent. We also apply the same analysis to experimental time series generated by a diode resonator circuit and show that the network size, mean shortest path length, and network diameter are highly sensitive to the interior crisis captured in this particular data set.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2010

Quantitative Analysis of the Drosophila Segmentation Regulatory Network Using Pattern Generating Potentials

Cis-regulatory modules that drive precise spatial-temporal patterns of gene expression are central to the process of metazoan development. We describe a new computational strategy to annotate genomic sequences based on their ‘‘pattern generating potential’’ and to produce quantitative descriptions of transcriptional regulatory networks at the level of individual protein-module interactions. We use this approach to convert the qualitative understanding of interactions that regulate Drosophila segmentation into a network model in which a confidence value is associated with each transcription factor-module interaction. Sequence information from multiple Drosophila species is integrated with transcription factor binding specificities to determine conserved binding site frequencies across the genome. These binding site profiles are combined with transcription factor expression information to create a model to predict module activity patterns. This model is used to scan genomic sequences for the potential to generate all or part of the expression pattern of a nearby gene, obtained from available gene expression databases. Interactions between individual transcription factors and modules are inferred by a statistical method to quantify a factor’s contribution to the module’s pattern generating potential. We use these pattern generating potentials to systematically describe the location and function of known and novel cis-regulatory modules in the segmentation network, identifying many examples of modules predicted to have overlapping expression activities. Surprisingly, conserved transcription factor binding site frequencies were as effective as experimental measurements of occupancy in predicting module expression patterns or factor-module interactions. Thus, unlike previous module prediction methods, this method predicts not only the location of modules but also their spatial activity pattern and the factors that directly determine this pattern. As databases of transcription factor specificities and in vivo gene expression patterns grow, analysis of pattern generating potentials provides a general method to decode transcriptional regulatory sequences and networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning the Temporal Effect in Infrared Thermal Videos With Long Short-Term Memory for Quality Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding

With the advances of sensing technology, in-situ infrared thermal videos can be collected from Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) processes. Each video records the formulation process of a weld nugget. The nugget evolution creates a “temporal effect” across the frames, which can be leveraged for real-time, nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld quality. Currently, quality prediction with imaging data mainly focuses on optical feature extraction with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) but does not make the most of such temporal effect. In this study, pixels corresponding to critical locations on the weld nugget surface are extracted from a video to form multivariate time series (MTS). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used in MTS processing to remove noisy signals related to uninformative frames. A Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is developed to learn from the processed MTS and then predicts weld nugget size and thickness in real-time NDE. Results from a case study on RSW of Boron steel demonstrates the improvement in prediction accuracy and computational time with the proposed method, as compared to CNN-based weld quality prediction.

Guo, Shenghan↗

DOE OSTI2015

The process domains concept as a framework for fish and mussel habitat in a coastal plain river of southeastern North America

Hydrologic processes interact with geomorphic patterns to create the spatial and temporal variation in riverine habitat that affects the distribution of aquatic species throughout stream networks. The process domains concept (PDC) states that longitudinally-abrupt changes in geomorphic processes along streams determine temporal patterns of natural disturbance that influence the distribution of stream organisms. Despite its potential generality, the PDC has been applied primarily to mountain streams of western North America. We tested the utility of the PDC as a conceptual framework for characterizing spatiotemporal variability in abiotic conditions and assessed the influence of process domains (PDs) on community composition of fishes and mussels along a fifth order river mainstem in the gulf coastal plain of the southeastern United States. We measured channel cross sections at three transects nested within three sites nested within three stream reaches to quantify multi-scale spatial variability in channel geomorphology along the mainstem of the Neches River, Texas, USA. Next, we modeled stage-dependent channel hydraulics to quantify temporal variability in habitat area and benthic disturbance. Lastly, we sampled fishes and mussels at each site and tested whether PDs correlate with spatial variation in taxonomic and functional community composition. Channel cross-sectional dimensions varied at the reach scale and affected the modeled temporal variability in habitat area and benthic disturbance. This interaction between channel geomorphology and disturbance regime indicated the presence of distinct PDs at the reach scale. Taxonomic composition of fishes did not differ among reaches, whereas abundance and richness of mussels were strongly reduced in the upper reach compared to the middle and lower reaches. Only slight differences in functional traits of fishes and mussels were apparent among reaches, suggesting that reach scale PDs do not influence community composition via the filtering of these functional traits. This study provides empirical evidence that the PDC is a useful framework for describing hydrogeomorphic conditions and mussel abundance and richness and can guide channel restorations in streams draining regions of low topography.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights from application of a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to an intensive urban black carbon monitoring dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Collective neural network behavior in a dynamically driven disordered system of superconducting loops

Collective properties of complex systems composed of many interacting components such as neurons in our brain can be modeled by artificial networks based on disordered systems. We show that a disordered neural network of superconducting loops with Josephson junctions can exhibit computational properties like categorization and associative memory in the time evolution of its state in response to information from external excitations. Superconducting loops can trap multiples of fluxons in many discrete memory configurations defined by the local free energy minima in the configuration space of all possible states. A memory state can be updated by exciting the Josephson junctions to fire or allow the movement of fluxons through the network as the current through them surpasses their critical current thresholds. Simulations performed with a lumped element circuit model of a 4-loop network show that information written through excitations is translated into stable states of trapped flux and their time evolution. Experimental implementation on a high-Tc superconductor YBCO-based 4-loop network shows dynamically stable flux flow in each pathway characterized by the correlations between junction firing statistics. Neural network behavior is observed as energy barriers separating state categories in simulations in response to multiple excitations, and experimentally as junction responses characterizing different flux flow patterns in the network. The state categories that produce these patterns have different temporal stabilities relative to each other and the excitations. This provides strong evidence for time-dependent (short-to-long-term) memories, that are dependent on the geometrical and junction parameters of the loops, as described with a network model.

Josephson junctions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convolutional Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process and its Application to Wildfire Ignition Risk Quantification for Power Delivery Networks

To quantify wildfire ignition risks on power delivery networks, the current practice predominantly relies on the empirically calculated fire danger indices, which may not well capture the effects of dynamically changing environmental factors. This article proposes a spatio-temporal point process model, known as the Convolutional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (cNHPP), and applies the model to quantify wildfire ignition risks for power delivery networks. The proposed model captures both the current (i.e., instantaneous) and cumulative (i.e., historical) effects of key environmental processes (i.e., covariates) on wildfire risks, as well as the spatio-temporal dependency among different segments of the power delivery network. The computation and interpretation of the intensity function are thoroughly investigated. We apply the proposed approach to estimate wildfire ignition risks on major transmission lines in California, using historical fire data, meteorological and vegetation data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Here, a comprehensive comparison study is performed to show the applicability and predictive capability of the proposed approach.

Non-homogeneous Poisson Process↗

DOE OSTI2017

Prolongation of SMAP to Spatiotemporally Seamless Coverage of Continental U.S. Using a Deep Learning Neural Network

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has delivered valuable sensing of surface soil moisture since 2015. However, it has a short time span and irregular revisit schedules. Utilizing a state-of-the-art time series deep learning neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), we created a system that predicts SMAP level-3 moisture product with atmospheric forcings, model-simulated moisture, and static physiographic attributes as inputs. The system removes most of the bias with model simulations and improves predicted moisture climatology, achieving small test root-mean-square errors (<0.035) and high-correlation coefficients >0.87 for over 75% of Continental United States, including the forested southeast. As the first application of LSTM in hydrology, we show the proposed network avoids overfitting and is robust for both temporal and spatial extrapolation tests. LSTM generalizes well across regions with distinct climates and environmental settings. With high fidelity to SMAP, LSTM shows great potential for hindcasting, data assimilation, and weather forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Investigating the interaction between MED5 and CDK8 in Arabidopsis

Plant metabolic networks are precisely regulated by the spatial and temporal expression of suites of genes. Among the various transcription (co)factors, a multi‐protein complex, Mediator has been identified as a hub for transcription regulation. The core Mediator complex, comprising the head, middle and tail domains, functions as a bridge between transcription factors and basal transcription machinery, whereas the CDK8 kinase module plays a repressive regulatory role. It is still unclear, however, how the kinase module represses target genes especially in planta . Using a forward genetic screen, our lab determined that MED5, an Arabidopsis Mediator tail subunit, is required for maintaining phenylpropanoid homeostasis. A semi‐dominant mutant ( ref4‐3 ) characterized by a single amino acid substitution in MED5a (G383S) was isolated as a strong suppressor of phenylpropanoid pathway, indicated by decreased soluble phenylpropanoid metabolite accumulation, reduced lignin content and dwarfism. In contrast, knocking out MED5a and MED5b ( med5a/5b ) results in the accumulation of increased levels of phenylpropanoid pathway derivatives. Considering that the CDK8 kinase module is a repressive module in Mediator, we tested the hypothesis that Arabidopsis MED5 represses phenylpropanoid pathway by interacting with CDK8. To test this hypothesis, CDK8 knockout lines ( cdk8‐1 ) were crossed with ref4‐3 , and the phenylpropanoid content of the resulting double mutants was evaluated. In ref4‐3 cdk8‐1 plants, the concentration of sinapate esters and total lignin content are as low as they are in ref4‐3 , yet the growth defect in ref4‐3 is largely rescued. To further determine the genes targeted by MED5 and CDK8 in maintaining proper plant growth, we performed an RNA‐seq analysis which showed that a majority of the genes involved in salicylic acid (SA) biosynthesis and signaling are up‐regulated in ref4‐3 compared to wild type and ref4‐3 cdk8‐1 . Consistent with this observation, both free and total SA, both of which have been previously implicated in dwarfing in lignin‐modified plants, are accumulated to elevated levels in ref4‐3 but not in wild type and ref4‐3 cdk8‐1 . Nevertheless, blocking SA biosynthesis is not sufficient to restore the growth deficiency of ref4‐3 , suggesting that the hyperaccumulation of SA is more likely to be an effect rather than a cause for its dwarf phenotype. At the molecular level, to elucidate how ref4‐3 regulates downstream gene targets in either a CDK8‐dependent manner, we performed RNA polymerase II (Pol II) ChIP‐seq analysis in wild type, ref4‐3 , cdk8‐1 and ref4‐3 cdk8‐1 . The Pol II ChIP‐seq data may provide additional information for us to identify the genes that are causative for the dwarfism of ref4‐3 . Taken together, this study identifies the genetic interaction between MED5 and CDK8 in Arabidopsis, which enhances our understanding in the function of Mediator in plant metabolism and its role in lignin‐modification‐induced dwarfism. Support or Funding Information Department of Energy; Global Climate and Energy Project This abstract is from the Experimental Biology 2018 Meeting. There is no full text article associated with this abstract published in The FASEB Journal .

Mao, Xiangying↗

DOE OSTI2019

Optimal Proactive Vehicle Relocation for On-Demand Mobility Service with Deep Convolution-LSTM Network

This study develops an innovative model for inferring optimal proactive relocation strategy for empty vehicles of on-demand mobility service (OMS) directly from past observations of passenger demand. The output of our model is a row stochastic relocation matrix which gives the probability that an empty vehicle should be relocated from location i to location j at any given time. The matrix itself is high-dimensional and therefore challenging to obtain accurate estimation with traditional machine learning approach. Our model proposes the low-rank approximation of the relocation matrix, and introduces the deep convolution-LSTM network which extracts low-level spatial and temporal features from past demand observations for best restoration of the actual low rank approximation vector. The model is trained by deriving the optimal matching strategies from one year of real-world trip data. The results show that our model is able to predict the low-rank approximation of the relocation matrix with 4% of mean absolute error, may reduce the relocation cost by 20%-45% as compared to the real-world observations and is 50% optimal as compared to the global optimal matching with perfect information.

Lei, Zengxiang↗

DOE OSTI2016

Metrics required for Power System Resilient Operations and Protection

Today’s complex grid involves many interdependent systems. Various layers of hierarchical control and communication systems are coordinated, both spatially and temporally to achieve gird reliability. As new communication network based control system technologies are being deployed, the interconnected nature of these systems is becoming more complex. Deployment of smart grid concepts promises effective integration of renewable resources, especially if combined with energy storage. However, without a philosophical focus on resilience, a smart grid will potentially lead to higher magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially catastrophic event. Future system operations can be enhanced with a resilient philosophy through architecting the complexity with state awareness metrics that recognize changing system conditions and provide for an agile and adaptive response. The starting point for metrics lies in first understanding the attributes of performance that will be qualified. In this paper, we will overview those attributes and describe how they will be characterized by designing a distributed agent that can be applied to the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB): 1998-2015

This paper validates the performance of the physics-based Physical Solar Model (PSM) data set in the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to quantify the accuracy of the magnitude and the spatial and temporal variability of the solar radiation data. Achieving higher penetrations of solar energy on the electric grid and reducing integration costs requires accurate knowledge of the available solar resource. Understanding the impacts of clouds and other meteorological constituents on the solar resource and quantifying intra-/inter-hour, seasonal, and interannual variability are essential for accurately designing utility-scale solar energy projects. Solar resource information can be obtained from ground-based measurement stations and/or from modeled data sets. The availability of measurements is scarce, both temporally and spatially, because it is expensive to maintain a high-density solar radiation measurement network that collects good quality data for long periods of time. On the other hand, high temporal and spatial resolution gridded satellite data can be used to estimate surface radiation for long periods of time and is extremely useful for solar energy development. Because of the advantages of satellite-based solar resource assessment, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the PSM. The PSM produced gridded solar irradiance -- global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance -- for the NSRDB at a 4-km by 4-km spatial resolution and half-hourly temporal resolution covering the 18 years from 1998-2015. The NSRDB also contains additional ancillary meteorological data sets, such as temperature, relative humidity, surface pressure, dew point, and wind speed. Details of the model and data are available at https://nsrdb.nrel.gov. The results described in this paper show that the hourly-averaged satellite-derived data have a systematic (bias) error of approximately +5% for GHI and less than +10% for DNI; however, the scatter (root mean square error [RMSE]) difference is higher for the hourly averages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB): 1998-2015

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data Processing Pipeline for Socio-Technical Network Analysis [Slides]

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Measures of network complexity, such as degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection may be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D-Reconstruction of Tau Neutrinos in LArTPC Detectors

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation neutrino experiment currently under construction. DUNE will consist of two high-resolution neutrino interaction imaging detectors exposed to the world’s most intense neutrino beam, with the Near Detector at Fermilab and the Far Detector 1,300 km away in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota, US. The high statistics and excellent resolution capabilities of DUNE's $^{40}$Ar detector will allow us to make precision studies of oscillation parameters capable of searching for CP violation in the lepton sector, testing interaction models, and studying phenomena that have until now, seemed too complex to measure, like $\nu_\tau$ detection and therefore, providing the completion of the 3-flavor neutrino paradigm. Knowledge of the $\nu_\tau$ detection can impact a broad spectrum of open questions. These include searching for non-standard neutrino interactions, constraining the unitarity of the PMNS matrix, searching for sterile neutrinos, and studying neutrino interactions. In the case of LArTPC data, the detector hits can be considered nodes in a graph, and the edges represent the spatial and temporal relationships between them. By using graph neural networks, it is possible to exploit these relationships and improve the accuracy of particle identification and reconstruction. During my presentation and specifically for tau neutrino reconstruction, I will show the effectiveness and reliability of our in-house developed graph neural network (GNN), NuGraph. This GNN classifies detector hits based on the particle type responsible for their production, assuring that the system accurately identifies and categorizes information based on its unique characteristics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Multi-Fidelity Soil Moisture Products Across the Continental United States

We have aggregated the most recent soil moisture datasets from a diverse range of sources, encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS). These sources encompass gridded data from remote sensing products, reanalysis products, machine learning-based projects, and land surface modeling products. Additionally, we have obtained and processed in-situ soil moisture observations from the International Soil Moisture Network. The collected datasets exhibit variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Among the 20 datasets, six are available at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees, while three are at a coarser spatial resolution of 25 km. To minimize spatial interpolation, we conducted data uncertainty evaluations at the 0.25-degree spatial resolution. For our data evaluations, we maintained a monthly temporal resolution, which effectively captures soil moisture seasonality and interannual variability. Our data processing strategy preserves the raw data and interpolated data at their original temporal resolutions. Datasets with higher temporal resolutions, including daily, three-hourly, and hourly datasets, are set aside for subsequent analyses. These analyses will delve into topics such as soil moisture changes and recovery during extreme weather events. Furthermore, we have processed auxiliary data to enhance our evaluation, leveraging tools such as Google Earth Engine. This includes incorporating topography data, land use land cover data, Köppen-Geiger climate classification, and more to provide a comprehensive assessment from multiple sources.

Li, Lingcheng↗