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At least 343 records · Page 19

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Simulation↗

Pattern recognition of Landsat data based upon temporal trend analysis

The Delta Classifier defined as an agricultural crop classification scheme employing a temporal trend procedure is applied to more than 100 different Landsat data sets collected during the 1974-1975 growing season throughout the major wheat-producing regions of the United States. The classification approach stresses examination of temporal trends of the Landsat mean vectors of crops in the absence of corresponding ground truth information. It is shown that the resulting classifications compare favorably to ground truth estimates for wheat proportion in those cases where ground truth is available, and that the temporal trend procedure yields estimates of the wheat proportion that are comparable to the best results from maximum likelihood classification with photointerpreter-defined training fields.

Engvall, J. L.↗

Electronic heterodyne recording of interference patterns

An electronic heterodyne technique is being investigated for video (i.e., television rate and format) recording of interference patterns. In the heterodyne technique electro-optic modulation is used to introduce a sinusoidal phase shift between the beams of an interferometer. For phase modulation frequencies between 0.1 and 15 MHz an image dissector camera may be used to scan the resulting temporally modulated interference pattern. Heterodyne detection of the camera output is used to selectively record the interference pattern. An advantage of such synchronous recording is that it permits recording of low-contrast fringes in high ambient light conditions. The application of this technique to the recording of holograms is discussed.

Merat, F. L.↗

Fungal-Bacterial Cooccurrence Patterns Differ between Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi and Nonmycorrhizal Fungi across Soil Niches

Soil bacteria and fungi are known to form niche-specific communities that differ between actively growing and decaying roots. Yet almost nothing is known about the cross-kingdom interactions that frame these communities and the environmental filtering that defines these potentially friendly or competing neighbors. We explored the temporal and spatial patterns of soil fungal (mycorrhizal and nonmycorrhizal) and bacterial cooccurrence near roots of wild oat grass, Avena fatua, growing in its naturalized soil in a greenhouse experiment. Amplicon sequences of the fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and bacterial 16S rRNA genes from rhizosphere and bulk soils collected at multiple plant growth stages were used to construct covariation-based networks as a step toward identifying fungal-bacterial associations. Corresponding stable-isotope-enabled metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) of bacteria identified in cooccurrence networks were used to inform potential mechanisms underlying the observed links. Bacterial-fungal networks were significantly different in rhizosphere versus bulk soils and between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and nonmycorrhizal fungi. Over 12 weeks of plant growth, nonmycorrhizal fungi formed increasingly complex networks with bacteria in rhizosphere soils, while AMF more frequently formed networks with bacteria in bulk soils. Analysis of network-associated bacterial MAGs suggests that some of the fungal-bacterial links that we identified are potential indicators of bacterial breakdown and consumption of fungal biomass, while others intimate shared ecological niches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

Space and time aliasing structure is monthly mean polar-orbiting satellite data

Monthly mean wind fields from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS1) scatterometer are presented. A banded structure which resembles the satellite subtrack is clearly and consistently apparent in the isotachs as well as the u and v components of the routinely produced fields. The structure also appears in the means of data from other polar-orbiting satellites and instruments. An experiment is designed to trace the cause of the banded structure. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) gridded surface wind analyses are used as a control set. These analyses are also sampled with the ERS1 temporal-spatial samplig pattern to form a simulated scatterometer wind set. Both sets are used to create monthly averages. The banded structures appear in the monthly mean simulated data but do not appear in the control set. It is concluded that the source of the banded structure lies in the spatial and temporal sampling of the polar-orbiting satellite which results in undersampling. The problem involves multiple timescales and space scales, oversampling and under-sampling in space, aliasing in the time and space domains, and preferentially sampled variability. It is shown that commonly used spatial smoothers (or filters), while producing visually pleasing results, also significantly bias the true mean. A three-dimensional spatial-temporal interpolator is designed and used to determine the mean field. It is found to produce satisfactory monthly means from both simulated and real ERS1 data. The implications to climate studies involving polar-orbiting satellite data are discussed.

Zeng, Lixin↗

DyG-DPCD: A Distributed Parallel Community Detection Algorithm for Large-Scale Dynamic Graphs

Dynamic (Temporal) graphs capture the valuable evolution of real-world systems, from the continuously evolving patterns of social interactions and genetic pathways to the dynamic fluctuations of economic forces. Detecting communities for such evolving networks poses unique challenges. Detecting and analyzing the evolution of communities within dynamic graphs unlocks valuable insights into the underlying structural and temporal patterns of real-world systems. However, the sheer volume of modern graph data and the inherent complexity of the temporal dimension pose significant challenges to scalable community detection algorithms. Addressing this gap, our work explores the limited landscape of scalable distributed-memory parallel methods specifically designed for dynamic network community detection. We propose a novel parallel algorithm, DyG-DPCD (Dynamic Graph Distributed Parallel Community Detection), to detect communities in dynamic networks using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) framework. We present a vertex-centric approach, allowing us to detect communities through local optimization. Furthermore, we enhance our baseline algorithm by incorporating three heuristics, which improve the algorithm’s performance significantly while maintaining the quality of the solutions. We demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithm by experimenting on several real-world large-scale networks with hundreds of millions of edges spanning diverse domains. Notably, DyG-DPCD achieves speedups between 25× and 30× for large networks that we experimented on using NERSC compute nodes. In conclusion, our algorithm outperforms the STINGER parallel re-agglomeration algorithm by 30×.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Attend and Decode: 4D fMRI Task State Decoding Using Attention Models

Source code for Brain Attend and Decode paper. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a neuroimaging modality that captures the blood oxygen level in a subject's brain while the subject either rests or performs a variety of functional tasks under different conditions. Given fMRI data, the problem of inferring the task, known as task state decoding, is challenging due to the high dimensionality (hundreds of million sampling points per datum) and complex spatio-temporal blood flow patterns inherent in the data. In this work, we propose to tackle the fMRI task state decoding problem by casting it as a 4D spatiotemporal classification problem. We present a novel architecture called Brain Attend and Decode (BAnD), that uses residual convolutional neural networks for spatial feature extraction and self-attention mechanisms for temporal modeling. We achieve significant performance gain compared to previous works on a 7-task benchmark from the large-scale Human Connectome Project-Young Adult (HCP-YA) dataset. We also investigate the transferability of BAnD's extracted features on unseen HCP tasks, either by freezing the spatial feature extraction layers and retraining the temporal model, or finetuning the entire model. The pre-trained features from BAnD are useful on similar tasks while finetuning them yields competitive results on unseen tasks/conditions.

Ng, BrendaM.↗

Cultural and environmental effects on the spectral development patterns of corn and soybeans: Field data analysis

An overall approach to crop spectral understanding is presented which serves to maintain a strong link between actual plant responses and characteristics and spectral observations from ground based and spaceborne sensors. A specific technique for evaluating field reflectance data, as a part of the overall approach, is also described. Results of the application of this technique to corn and soybeans reflectance data collected by and at Purdue/LARS indicate that a number of common cultural and environmental factors can significantly affect the temporal spectral development patterns of these crops in tasseled cap greenness (a transformed variable of LANDSAT MSS signals).

Crist, E. P.↗

Tracking Avian Reservoirs of Arboviruses using Remote Sensing and Radiotelemetry

Encephalitis is caused by a virus that is transmitted by mosquitoes between mammalian hosts. The virus is closely related to the West Nile virus (WNV), which started in New York in 1999, and has since spread to 25 states. Like encephalitis, WNV is vectored by mosquitoes, and the primary hosts are birds; humans are accidental, or'dead-end' hosts. Very little is understood about the behavior of these bird populations, and how they intersect - both in time and in space - with mosquito populations. Exploring these relationships is the first step in developing models for encephalitis and WNV transmission risk. This project combines remotely sensed data with radiotelemetry to create a spatiotemporal map of encephalitis viral activity in bird and mosquito populations in the Sacramento Valley of California. Specifically, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were used to characterize habitats utilized by both avian viral reservoirs and the mosquitoes that vector encephalitis. Radiotelemetry and serosurveys (blood) were then used to spatially and temporally track the patterns of infection. The project uses Landsat ETM+ multitemporal satellite data to characterize habitats utilized by both birds and the mosquito vectors. Mist nets were used to sample members of individual flocks of blackbirds and cowbirds over a period of several months; these birds were then bled to assess their viral status, banded, and fitted with transmitters. Radiotelemetry was used to spatially and temporally track the distribution of banded birds and their associated flocks. The movement of these indicator flocks were compared with the location of remotely sensed (adult and larval) mosquito habitats to determine the intersection of bird's and vectors; this is key in understanding where and when transmission occurs from bird to bird, as well as from bird to mammal, via mosquito. The relationships found during the project are being used to generate a model of encephalitis transmission risk in California.

Beck, L.↗

Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and boreal aboveground biomass datasets: assessing accuracy, dynamics, and similarities

The North American arctic and boreal regions (ABRs) are rapidly warming and experiencing intensifying disturbances. Accurately quantifying aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding the impacts of these changes on the carbon cycle and for designing climate change mitigation strategies. Several AGB maps have been developed for the North American ABRs, including recent contributions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) campaign. However, these maps differ widely in training data, methodology, and resulting AGB density estimates. Presently, a comprehensive comparative evaluation is lacking, making it difficult for users to select datasets suited to their research or management needs. Here, in this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of nine AGB density datasets across North American ABRs, specifically for Alaska and Canada. We (1) summarized AGB by ecoregion and Canadian provinces, (2) evaluated their accuracy against field-based measurements, (3) analyzed spatial and temporal similarities among datasets, and (4) assessed their ability to capture disturbance (fire and harvest) impacts on AGB. We found substantial variation in regional and local AGB estimates across datasets, with overall accuracy ranging from R 2 = 0.25–0.62 and Bias% from −47.8% to 69.9% when validated against field plots. Despite these differences, most datasets have comparatively consistent spatial patterns in AGB (r > 0.8 for most cases). In contrast, agreement on the temporal patterns of AGB change is generally low. We found datasets with spatial resolutions ⩽300 m are capable of capturing disturbance impacts on AGB dynamics, though sensitivity varies across products. Our findings and dataset summary provide guidance for selecting appropriate AGB datasets for different applications within our study area. Our analysis also highlights the need to decrease map bias and increase capability to detect temporal change to decrease uncertainty of AGB datasets potentially by using training data which is representative of major plant functional types within the mapped area.

ABoVE↗

Evolution of upwelling fronts off the coast of Portugal

We have analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll in the Atlantic Ocean off the Portugal coast using satellite imagery from 1979 to 1986 in conjunction with wind data. The spatial patterns in the imagery show the typical inshore-offshore and east-west gradients, while the temporal patterns show seasonal high winter values and low summer values. In the satellite imagery for the period 1979-1986, stable mesoscale and large scale patterns recurred despite interannual differences in absolute satellite-derived pigment concentrations.

Source record↗

Decoding the EEG patterns induced by sequential finger movement for brain-computer interfaces

Objective In recent years, motor imagery-based brain–computer interfaces (MI-BCIs) have developed rapidly due to their great potential in neurological rehabilitation. However, the controllable instruction set limits its application in daily life. To extend the instruction set, we proposed a novel movement-intention encoding paradigm based on sequential finger movement. Approach Ten subjects participated in the offline experiment. During the experiment, they were required to press a key sequentially [i.e., Left→Left (LL), Right→Right (RR), Left→Right (LR), and Right→Left (RL)] using the left or right index finger at about 1 s intervals under an auditory prompt of 1 Hz. The movement-related cortical potential (MRCP) and event-related desynchronization (ERD) features were used to investigate the electroencephalography (EEG) variation induced by the sequential finger movement tasks. Twelve subjects participated in an online experiment to verify the feasibility of the proposed paradigm. Main results As a result, both the MRCP and ERD features showed the specific temporal–spatial EEG patterns of different sequential finger movement tasks. For the offline experiment, the average classification accuracy of the four tasks was 71.69%, with the highest accuracy of 79.26%. For the online experiment, the average accuracies were 83.33% and 82.71% for LL-versus-RR and LR-versus-RL, respectively. Significance This paper demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed sequential finger movement paradigm through offline and online experiments. This study would be helpful for optimizing the encoding method of motor-related EEG information and providing a promising approach to extending the instruction set of the movement intention-based BCIs.

Liu, Chang↗

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Satellite-Derived Cloud and Surface Characteristics During FIRE-ACE

Advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) products calculated for the western Arctic for April-July 1998 are used to investigate spatial, temporal, and regional patterns and variability in energy budget parameters associated with ocean- ice-atmosphere interactions over the Arctic Ocean during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project and the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment - Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE-ACE). The AVHRR-derived parameters include cloud fraction, clear-sky and all-sky skin temperature and broadband albedo, upwelling and downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, cloud top pressure and temperature, and cloud optical depth. The remotely sensed products generally agree well with field observations at the SHEBA site, which in turn is shown to be representative of a surrounding region comparable in size to a climate-model grid cell. Time series of products for other locations in the western Arctic illustrate the magnitude of spatial variability during the study period and provide spatial and temporal detail useful for studying regional processes. The data illustrate the progression of reduction in cloud cover, albedo decrease, and the considerable heating of the open ocean associated with the anomalous decrease in sea ice cover in the eastern Beaufort Sea that began in late spring. Above-freezing temperatures are also recorded within the ice pack, suggesting warming of the open water areas within the ice cover.

Maslanik, J. A.↗

Structure and Dynamics of Domains in Ferroelectric Nanostructures – Phase-Field Modeling (Final Technical Report)

Domain pattern formation is one of the most common phenomena in nature and is a topic of immense interest in many fields ranging from materials science and physics to chemistry and biology. This DOE sponsored research project explored the basic science concerning the thermodynamic stability of mesoscale polarization domain patterns and their temporal evolution mechanisms during formation and subsequent switching in ferroelectric nanostructures and heterostructures. The project employed the computational phase-field method in combination of microelasticity and electrostatic theories. The research was carried out in close collaboration with a number of experimental groups who used High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM), in situ TEM with Scanning Probe Microscopy (SPM), or Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) to characterize the domain structures and dynamics of ferroelectric thin films and heterostructures and who grow high-quality ferroelectric and multiferroic thin films using advanced growth techniques such as Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE), Pulsed Laser Deposition (PLLD), and sputtering. The research efforts of the project help establish the phase-field method as the most powerful method for understanding and predicting domain structures in ferroelectric thin films and nanostructures. The findings of the project led to the basic understanding of stability and switching mechanisms of ferroelectric domains under different mechanical boundary conditions and under either homogeneous capacitor configurations or local fields using metallic probes as electrodes and the emergence of charged domain walls during domain switching. The project predicted the spatial length scales, temperature ranges, and electromechanical conditions for different polar states in heterostructures and guided the discovery of both transient and stable novel polarization states containing vortex lattices in oxide superlattices. The project resulted in 134 journal publications and 6 PhD theses with all the PhD graduates currently working in either academia or industry within the United States. The basic understanding on the stability of mesoscale polar states and pattern evolution achieved by the project improved our ability to control and engineer properties of ferroelectric thin films and heterostructures for potential applications in nanoscale electronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Small Signaling Peptides in Sorghum bicolor : Integrating Phylogeny and Gene Expression to Characterize Roles in Stem Development

Small signaling peptides (SSPs) are important regulators of plant growth, development, and responses to biotic and abiotic stress, yet their role in the C4 grass Sorghum bicolor is largely uncharacterized. To help fill this knowledge gap, 219 sorghum genes that encode SSPs were identified based on SSP sequences previously identified in Arabidopsis thaliana, Zea mays, Oryza sativa, Triticum aestivum , and Brachypodium distachyon . The 219 sorghum SSP-encoding genes were assigned to 19 gene families, analyzed for the presence of motifs, and aligned with genes that encode SSPs in other plants using phylogenetic analysis. Sorghum genes in 12 of the 19 SSP gene families had not been previously characterized. Expression of the 219 SSP-encoding genes in sorghum organs, during stem development, and in stem tissues and cell types revealed distinct spatial, temporal, and developmental patterns of expression. Genes associated with the SbCEP and SbRGF families were preferentially expressed in roots, whereas SbEPF genes were expressed in stem epidermal and pith parenchyma cells and panicles. The expression of genes during bioenergy sorghum stem growth and development was investigated because stems account for ~80% of harvested biomass and serve as conduits for water and nutrient transport between leaves and roots. During stem development, 28 SSP genes in several families ( CLE, EPF, CEP, GASS, PSY, ES, PSK, CAPE, POE ) were expressed at higher levels in zones of cell proliferation. For example, the TDIF homologs SbCLE41 and SbCLE42 were expressed at high levels in nascent stem nodes where they may regulate vascular bundle cambial activity and cell differentiation. A different set of 15 genes in the CIF, POE, CAPE, PSY, CEP, RALF , and CLE families were expressed at higher levels in zones of stem tissue differentiation highlighted by elevated expression of five SbRALFR s in the stem nodal plexus. Cell type–specific expression of many sorghum genes that encode SSPs was observed in fully elongated internodes indicating gene expression is regulated with high spatial resolution. Overall, the results provide a foundation of information for analysis of SSP function in sorghum that can be integrated with knowledge of sorghum gene regulatory networks to modulate traits important for production of sorghum crops.

bioenergy sorghum↗