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At least 343 records · Page 19

Growth of Hexagonal Boron Nitride from Molten Nickel Solutions: A Reactive Molecular Dynamics Study

Metal flux methods are excellent for synthesizing high-quality hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) crystals, but the atomic mechanisms of hBN nucleation and growth in these systems are poorly understood and difficult to probe experimentally. Here, we harness classical reactive molecular dynamics (ReaxFF) to unravel the mechanisms of hBN synthesis from liquid nickel solvent over time scales up to 30 ns. These simulations mimic experimental conditions by including relatively large liquid nickel slabs containing dissolved boron and a molecular nitrogen gas phase. Overall, the reaction takes place almost exclusively on the surface of the liquid nickel, owing to the low solubility of nitrogen in bulk nickel and the intermediate species’ preference for the metal–gas interface. The formation of hBN invariably begins by reaction of dinitrogen with nickel-solvated boron atoms at the surface, forming intermediate N–N–B species, which typically evolve into B–N–B units through a short-lived intermediate where a single nitrogen atom is coordinated by one nitrogen and two boron atoms. The resulting B–N–B units, in turn, coalesce with growing hBN nuclei and carry nitrogen between hBN nanocrystals in an Ostwald ripening process. The amount of hBN produced on the tens of nanosecond time scale depends critically on the boron concentration, while having a much weaker dependence on the N 2 pressure for the regime considered (N 2 pressures of 2.5–10 MPa, Ni–B solutions with 6–12% boron by atom fraction). The highest rate of hBN formation occurs at the lowest temperature considered (1750 K, just above the melting point of nickel), while no hBN sheets are formed at 2000 K or above. An analysis of the transition pathways for nitrogen atoms shows that the final step, incorporation of small B–N motifs into larger hBN sheets, is the rate-limiting step in the regimes considered. While raising the temperature from 1750 to 2000 K has little effect on the formation of intermediates (N–N–B, B–N–B, etc.), the lack of large hBN sheets at temperatures >1900 K is explained by decreased probability of the final step and increased probability of breakup of hBN into B–N motifs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optical and photophysical properties of platinum benzoporphyrins with C 2v and D 2h symmetry

Platinum(II) mono- and di-benzoporphyrins carrying either ester or imide peripheral groups have been successfully synthesized. These benzoporphyrins possessing C 2v and D 2h symmetry were investigated using a range of techniques including UV-Vis and phosphorescence spectroscopy, differential pulse voltammetry, and transient absorption spectroscopy covering wide spatial and temporal ranges. Up to three oxidation and three reductions within the accessible potential window of dichlorobenzene were observed. Facile reductions for both mono- and dibenzoporphyrin derivatives, more so with imide peripheral substituents were witnessed. Computational studies were supportive of push-pull type interactions within these molecular systems. Here, the formation of triplet excited states within 5 ps after laser excitation was confirmed by femtosecond transient absorption studies. Nanosecond transient absorption studies coupled with phosphorescence lifetime studies revealed relatively rapid relaxation of the triplet excited states as compared to a controlled platinum porphyrin suggesting push-pull type interactions on a slower time scale.

DFT calculations↗

Seasonal to Decadal Variability in Focused Groundwater and Contaminant Discharge along a Channelized Stream

Abstract Focused groundwater discharge to streams is problematic at contaminated sites because high fluxes can limit natural attenuation in the hyporheic zone. However, information on location, spatial evolution, and temporal persistence of springs in unlithified sediments over multiyear time scales is limited. We examine discharge at point (~1‐m) to reach (~300‐m) scales along a stream that intercepts trichloroethene and technetium‐99 plumes from a Superfund site. During 2011 to 2012, we seasonally monitored stream and spring flow and contaminant concentrations, along with probing streambed temperatures on a grid in winter and summer, building on prior monitoring during 1999 to 2002. Baseflow measured by both gauging and dye dilution generally increased with distance downstream, and stream and spring discharge varied seasonally, from minima in October to January to maxima in February to June. Thermal anomalies identified by probing occupied approximately 3% to 6% of the reach and typically coincided with visible springs or seeps. Locations of anomalies were similar to those identified in summer 2002, although some orifices disappeared and others emerged. Vertical groundwater fluxes calculated from probing tended to be less than net fluxes calculated from stream discharge, perhaps in part because the assumption of one‐dimensional, steady‐state flow in calculating point fluxes was simplistic. Maximum contaminant concentrations and fluxes decreased between 1999 to 2001 and 2011 to 2012 as a result of partial capture by an upgradient pump‐and‐treat system. Our findings confirm that springs in unlithified sediments can remain stationary within a few meters over decadal time scales, and seasonal variability in discharge can be greater than decadal variability.

Tripathi, Ganesh N.↗

Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) via Two-Timescale Control in Unbalanced Power Distribution Systems

Voltage control devices are employed in power distribution systems to reduce the power consumption by operating the system closer to the lower acceptable voltage limits; this technique is called conservation voltage reduction (CVR). The different modes of operation for system’s legacy devices (with binary control) and new devices (e.g. smart inverters with continuous control) coupled with variable photovoltaic (PV) generation results in voltage fluctuations which makes it challenging to achieve CVR objective. This paper presents a two-timescale control of feeder’s voltage control devices to achieve CVR that includes (1)a centralized controller operating in a slower time-scale to coordinate voltage control devices across the feeder and (2) local controllers operating in a faster timescale to mitigate voltage fluctuations due to PV variability. The centralized controller utilizes a three-phase optimal power flow model to obtain the decision variables for both legacy devices and smart inverters. The local controllers operate smart inverters to minimize voltage fluctuations and restore nodal voltages to their reference values by adjusting the reactive power support. The proposed approach is validated using the IEEE-123 bus (medium-size) and R3-12.47-2 (large-size) feeders. It is demonstrated that the proposed approach is effective in achieving the CVR objective for unbalanced distribution systems.

optimal control, distributed generation, fluctuati↗

Long-lived neutron-star remnants from asymmetric binary neutron star mergers: element formation, kilonova signals and gravitational waves

We present 3D general-relativistic neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics simulations of two asymmetric binary neutron star mergers producing long-lived neutron stars remnants and spanning a fraction of their cooling time scale. The mergers are characterized by significant tidal disruption with neutron rich material forming a massive disc around the remnant. The latter develops one-armed dynamics that is imprinted in the emitted kilo-Hertz gravitational waves. Angular momentum transport to the disc is initially driven by spiral-density waves and enhanced by turbulent viscosity and neutrino heating on longer timescales. The mass outflows are composed by neutron-rich dynamical ejecta of mass ∼10 −3 –10 −2 M ⊙ followed by a persistent spiral-wave/neutrino-driven wind of ≳ 10 −2 M ⊙ with material spanning a wide range of electron fractions, ∼0.1–0.55. Dynamical ejecta (winds) have fast velocity tails up to ∼0.8 (∼0.4) c. The outflows are further evolved to days timescale using 2D ray-by-ray radiation-hydrodynamics simulations that include an online nuclear network. We find complete r-process yields and identify the production of 56 Ni and the subsequent decay chain to 56 Co and 56 Fe. Synthetic kilonova light curves predict an extended (near-) infrared peak a few days postmerger originating from r-process in the neutron-rich/high-opacity ejecta and UV/optical peaks at a few hours (ten minutes) postmerger originating from weak r-process (free-neutron decay) in the faster ejecta components. Additionally, the fast tail of tidal origin generates kilonova afterglows potentially detectable in radio and X band on a few to ten years time scale. Quantitative effects originating from the tidal disruption merger dynamics are reflected in the multimessenger emissions.

abundances↗

The Dual Nature of Entrainment-Mixing Signatures Revealed through Large-Eddy Simulations of a Convection-Cloud Chamber

Abstract Entrainment of subsaturated air into a cloud can influence its optical and microphysical properties in various ways, depending on the droplet evaporation and turbulent mixing time scales. Previous experiments in the Pi convection-cloud chamber have revealed that, given a fixed entrained air property, the mixing of entrained subsaturated air results in complete evaporation of some cloud droplets, with the rest remaining unchanged. This is a signature of inhomogeneous mixing. While comparing the results of entrainment with varying air properties, the mixing signature appears as if the subsaturated air is well mixed with the cloud to evenly reduce the droplets’ size. In other words, taken together, the experiments appear to have the signature of homogeneous mixing. To explore these results in a greater depth, we conduct large-eddy simulations combined with a bin microphysics scheme. Our results reproduce the similar signatures of inhomogeneous and homogeneous mixing, implying that LES can resolve the inhomogeneous mixing when the grid spacing is smaller than the entrained air parcel. Additionally, we observe that increasing the aerosol injection rate enhances the signature of inhomogeneous mixing, while coarser grid spacing diminishes it. Finally, the change in wall fluxes in response to various entrained air properties confirms that the homogeneous signature seen in the analysis of an ensemble of simulations is the result of various equilibrium states. This further strengthens the suggestion that the homogeneous mixing signature found in aircraft observations near the cloud top may result from combining entrainment events of different intensities, possibly caused by various-sized eddies. Significance Statement Large-eddy simulation and size-resolved microphysics can resolve time scales for turbulent mixing and evaporation and, therefore, are well suited for reproducing, extending, and interpreting the entrainment experiment in the Pi convection-cloud chamber. Our simulation results confirm (i) the inhomogeneous mixing signature for an individual entrainment event and (ii) the appearance of homogeneous mixing in an ensemble of entrainment episodes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inhomogeneous mixing signature is more pronounced in a polluted cloud, but coarser grid spacing in simulations may compromise the accuracy of this signature. Last, the homogeneous mixing signature results from various equilibrium states established for different entrainment intensities and adjusted wall fluxes, which are challenging to measure experimentally but can be easily analyzed in the simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral variability of a sample of extreme variability quasars and implications for the MgII broad-line region

We present new Gemini/GMOS optical spectroscopy of 16 extreme variability quasars (EVQs) that dimmed bymore than 1.5mag in the g band between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey epochs (separated by a few years in the quasar rest frame). These EVQs are selected from quasars in the SDSS Stripe 82 region, covering a redshift range of 0.5 < z < 2.1. Nearly half of these EVQs brightened significantly (by more than 0.5 mag in the g band) in a few years after reaching their previous faintest state, and some EVQs showed rapid (non-blazar) variations of greater than 1-2 mag on time-scales of only months. To increase sample statistics, we use a supplemental sample of 33 EVQs with multi-epoch spectra from SDSS that cover the broad Mg II lambda 2798 line. Leveraging on the large dynamic range in continuum variability between the multi-epoch spectra, we explore the associated variations in the broad MgII line, whose variability properties have not been well studied before. The broad MgII flux varies in the same direction as the continuum flux, albeit with a smaller amplitude, which indicates at least some portion of Mg II is reverberating to continuum changes. However, the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of Mg II does not vary accordingly as continuum changes for most objects in the sample, in contrast to the case of the broad Balmer lines. Using the width of broad MgII to estimate the black hole mass with single epoch spectra therefore introduces a luminosity-dependent bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.

Engineering↗

Increasing the density in Wendelstein 7-X: benefits and limitations

In stellarators, increasing the density is beneficial for the energy confinement. While there is no single reason for this observation, it is still very robust across different devices and this is reflected in the empirical energy confinement time scaling for stellarators, ISS04. In order to study whether this is also true for Wendelstein 7-X, here the density scaling of the energy confinement time is analyzed and compared to ISS04 for the first divertor experiments. When the density is increased beyond a critical density, however, radiative collapses are frequently observed. Existing analytical models for the critical density are revisited to assess whether they can predict the accessible density range. Furthermore, since close to the collapse the radiation losses increase substantially, the impact on the global energy confinement is investigated. It is found that in plasmas with high radiation the density scaling of the energy confinement time becomes weaker, the reason for this observation is not yet clear. In the second half of the first divertor campaign, boronization was applied to W7-X for the first time. This broadened the operational window, allowing for operation at higher density and, hence, higher stored energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Interpenetration and kinetic effects in converging, high-energy plasma jets

In this work, we report on numerical simulations of laser-driven convergent plasma fusion targets. These “inverted corona” fusion targets are useful for the study of counter-streaming and converging rarefied plasma flows, and previous experiments have demonstrated their potential as neutron sources. The scheme consists of a fuel layer lined along the interior surface of a hollow plastic shell that is laser-ablated and expands inward towards the target center. The plasma streams generated in these targets are initially nearly collisionless as they converge, leading to wide interaction length scales and long interaction time scales as the jets interpenetrate. Such kinetic effects impact mixing of constituent ions - a phenomenon not properly captured by single-fluid hydrodynamic simulations. Here we conduct numerical simulations using two different methods: (1) single-fluid simulations in HYDRA, and (2) kinetic-ion, fluid-electron hybrid particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations in the code Chicago. It is shown that the initially nearly collisionless plasma fronts interpenetrate deeply and lead to broader interaction regions in space and time resulting in significant beam-beam fusion. The two approaches make different, testable predictions for the effect of fuel-layer thickness on neutron yield.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Coordination Behaviour of Cu I Photosensitizers Bearing Multidentate Ligands Investigated by X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

A systematic series of four novel homo- and heteroleptic CuI photosensitizers based on tetradentate 1,10-phenanthroline ligands of the type X^N^N^X containing two additional donor moieties in the 2,9-position (X=SMe or OMe) were designed. Their solid-state structures were assessed by X-ray diffraction. Cyclic voltammetry, UV-vis absorption, emission and X-ray absorption spectroscopy were then used to determine their electrochemical, photophysical and structural features in solution. Following, time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy in the picosecond time scale, coupled with time-dependent density functional theory calculations, provided in-depth information on the excited state electron configurations. For the first time, a significant shortening of the Cu–X distance and a change in the coordination mode to a pentacoordinated geometry is shown in the excited states of the two homoleptic complexes. These findings are important with respect to a precise understanding of the excited state structures and a further stabilization of this type of photosensitizers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multi-scale time-resolved electron diffraction: A case study in moiré materials

Ultrafast-optical-pump — structural-probe measurements, including ultrafast electron and x-ray scattering, provide direct experimental access to the fundamental timescales of atomic motion, and are thus foundational techniques for studying matter out of equilibrium. High-performance detectors are needed in scattering experiments to obtain maximum scientific value from every probe particle. Here we deploy a hybrid pixel array direct electron detector to perform ultrafast electron diffraction experiments on a WSe 2 /MoSe 2 2D heterobilayer, resolving the weak features of diffuse scattering and moiré superlattice structure without saturating the zero order peak. Enabled by the detector’s high frame rate, we show that a chopping technique provides diffraction difference images with signal-to-noise at the shot noise limit. Finally, we demonstrate that a fast detector frame rate coupled with a high repetition rate probe can provide continuous time resolution from femtoseconds to seconds, enabling us to perform a scanning ultrafast electron diffraction experiment that maps thermal transport in WSe 2 /MoSe 2 and resolves distinct diffusion mechanisms in space and time.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assembly of Building Blocks by Double-End-Anchored Polymers in the Dilute Regime Mediated by Hydrophobic Interactions at Controlled Distances

Hierarchical assembly of building blocks via competing, orthogonal interactions is a hallmark of many of nature’s composite materials that do not require highly specific ligand-receptor interactions. To mimic this assembly mechanism requires the development of building blocks capable of tunable interactions. In the present work, we explored the interplay between repulsive (steric and electrostatic) and attractive hydrophobic forces. The designed building blocks allow hydrophobic forces to effectively act at controlled, large distances, to create and tune the assembly of membrane-based building blocks under dilute conditions and affect their interactions with cellular membranes via physical cross-bridges. Specifically, we employed double-end-anchored poly(ethylene glycol)s (DEA-PEGs)—hydrophilic PEG tethers with hydrophobic tails on both ends. Using differential-interference-contrast optical microscopy, synchrotron small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), and cryogenic electron microscopy, we investigated the ability of DEA-PEGs to mediate assembly in the dilute regime on multiple length scales and on practical time scales. The PEG length, anchor hydrophobicity, and molar fraction of DEA-PEG molecules within a membrane strongly affect the assembly properties. Additional tuning of the intermembrane interactions can be achieved by adding repulsive interactions via PEG-lipids (steric) or cationic lipids to the DEA-PEG-mediated attractions. Further, while the optical and electron microscope imaging methods provided qualitative evidence of the ability of DEA-PEGs to assemble liposomes, the SAXS measurements and quantitative line-shape analysis in dilute preparations demonstrated that the ensemble average of loosely organized liposomal assemblies maintains DEA-PEG concentration-dependent tethering on defined nanometer length scales. For cationic liposome–DNA nanoparticles (CL–DNA NPs), aggregation induced by DEA-PEGs decreased internalization of NPs by cells, but tuning the DEA-PEG-induced attractions by adding repulsive steric interactions via PEG-lipids limited aggregation and increased NP uptake. However, confocal microscopy imaging together with colocalization studies with Rab11 and LysoTracker as markers of intracellular pathways showed that modifying CL–DNA NPs with DEA-PEGs alters their interactions with the plasma and endosomal membranes.

- x-ray scattering↗

Exploring the parameter space of MagLIF implosions using similarity scaling. I. Theoretical framework

Magneto-inertial fusion concepts, such as the magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) platform, constitute an alternative path for achieving ignition and significant fusion yields in the laboratory. The space of experimental input parameters defining a MagLIF load is highly multi-dimensional, and the implosion itself is a complex event involving many physical processes. In the first paper of this series, we develop a simplified analytical model that identifies the main physical processes at play during a MagLIF implosion. Using non-dimensional analysis, we determine the most important dimensionless parameters characterizing MagLIF implosions and provide estimates of such parameters using typical fielded or experimentally observed quantities for MagLIF. Here, we then show that MagLIF loads can be “incompletely” similarity scaled, meaning that the experimental input parameters of MagLIF can be varied such that many (but not all) of the dimensionless quantities are conserved. Based on similarity-scaling arguments, we can explore the parameter space of MagLIF loads and estimate the performance of the scaled loads. Then, in the follow-up papers of this series, we test the similarity-scaling theory for MagLIF loads against simulations for two different scaling “vectors,” which include current scaling and rise-time scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time dependent model for non-inductive ECH X-I current ramp-up for SHPD tokamak facility

Non-inductive (NI) plasma current start-up and ramp-up is an important research topic for spherical tokamak (ST) based reactors and fusion pilot plant (FPP). For a compact FPP, the OH flux availability is highly restricted due to its compact geometry. Efficient fundamental extraordinary mode (X-I) electron cyclotron heating (ECH) current start-up and ramp-up regime was identified for a reactor-like high toroidal magnetic field range which has more than a hundred times higher current drive efficiency compared to more conventional ECH methods for the relevant start-up temperature range. High current drive efficiency is possible due to the strong X-I fundamental ECH interaction only with unidirectional passing electrons constrained by the wave accessibility conditions. Here, we extend the X-I electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) investigation to a time dependent model to simulate the non-inductive current ramp-up to 10 MA for the Sustained High-Power Density (SHPD) facility. As the X-I ECCD driven current I EC rises, due to the back EMF driven negative current, the net plasma current Ip rises more slowly with the current resistive time scale. For tokamak confinement time (both L-mode and H-Mode) which tends to rise with I p , a positive feedback results and even with constant applied ECH power, T e0 , I EC , and I p can continue to rise to very high values. However, in a realistic situation, the T e0 rise should saturate due to a number of factors such as enhanced core radiation and increased power loss at high temperature. To simulate this effect, we adopt a maximum T e0 model which would limit the temperature rise to certain T e0 . With this model, we investigated the current ramp-up for various ECH power levels and the maximum T e0 of 15, 20, and 25 keV. We find that while the power required is reduced with increasing T e0 limit due to increased current drive efficiency, the time to reach 10 MA tends to go up due to the reduced plasma resistivity for the higher T e0 limit. We also find for a given Te0 limit, the time to reach 10 MA tends to be reduced by increasing the applied ECH power by over driving the current ramp-up where I EC is driven at significantly higher level than 10 MA. While the current ramp-up time may not be an issue for the steady-state reactor systems, if it is desirable to minimize the current ramp-up time, it is prudent to have a sufficient ECH power for current over-drive and have some T e0 limiting tools such as impurity seeding for enhanced radiation. In conclusion, a well-controlled NI ECH start-up also has a potential of improving the tokamak start-up reliability and avoid run-away electrons while the NI off-axis current drive could enhance MHD stability and plasma performance improvements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spin crossovers and superdiffusion in the one-dimensional Hubbard model

We use tools from integrability and generalized hydrodynamics to study finite-temperature dynamics in the one-dimensional Hubbard model. First, we examine charge, spin, and energy transport away from half-filling and zero magnetization, focusing on the strong coupling regime where we identify a rich interplay of temperature and energy scales, with crossovers between distinct dynamical regimes. We identify an intermediate-temperature regime analogous to the spin-incoherent Luttinger liquid, where spin degrees of freedom are hot but charge degrees of freedom are at low temperature. We demonstrate that the spin Drude weight exhibits sharp features at the crossover between this regime and the low-temperature Luttinger liquid regime, which are absent in the charge and energy response, and rationalize this behavior in terms of the properties of Bethe ansatz quasiparticles.We then turn to the dynamics along special lines in the phase diagram corresponding to half-filling and/or zero magnetization where on general grounds we anticipate that the transport is subballistic but superdiffusive. We provide analytical and numerical evidence for Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) dynamical scaling (with length and time scales related via x ~ t 2/3 ) along both lines and at the SO(4)-symmetric point where they intersect. Furthermore, our results suggest that both spin-coherence crossovers and KPZ scaling may be accessed in near-term experiments with optical lattice Hubbard emulators.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗