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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Transfer Learning for Street-Scale Nuisance Flood Forecasting in Coastal-Urban Cities

An important challenge with Machine Learning (ML) is its transferability; that is, whether a ML model trained on one set of data can be applied to a second set of data without requiring a full re-training of the model. Transfer Learning (TL) addresses this challenge by transferring knowledge learned in the source domain (the data it was trained on) to the target domain (a second set of data that is statistically different but related, which the model was not trained on). This study investigates the use of TL for street-scale nuisance flood forecasting by exploring whether a ML model trained on data collected for one set of streets can effectively forecast flooding for another set of streets in the same city using TL. The envisioned use case is a city deploying a new flood depth monitoring sensor on a street and using TL to apply a ML model, trained on sensor data from an existing flood depth sensor network, to this new street. Eventually, the new flood depth sensor will have a sufficient dataset for training its own ML model, but TL can be used to fill the gap in time while this new dataset is being generated. This method is explored using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained on data for the flood-prone streets of Norfolk City, Virginia. The data used for training includes environmental time series (rainfall, tide), topographic features (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Depth To Water (DTW)), and street-scale flood depth time series obtained from a high-fidelity physics-based model, acting as a synthetic street-scale stream depth sensor dataset since actual stream depth sensor data is generally unavailable for most cities. A set of 180 flood-prone streets was used to train a base model, while another set of 180 flood-prone streets was used to re-train that model using different TL strategies. The results show that full-weight re-training proved most effective and minimal re-training of only the output layer was insufficient. The advantage of TL was most pronounced when target data was limited, meaning data collected at the new water depth sensor location included generally less than 18 flood events. As target data increased beyond 18 flood events, the benefit of TL diminished relative to training a ML model directly on the local flood events. These findings can assist cities as they implement street-scale flood sensing systems to create accurate forecasts for new sensing locations that do not yet have sufficient data records to train a local ML model.

Roy, Binata [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, V↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications

This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physical Interpretation of Early Battery Life Prediction Models

Early battery life prediction models are most useful for R&D if they help us understand the early changes in battery electrochemical response that correspond with long-term degradation and failure. Linear regression models such as Fused lasso and Partial Least Squares can fit coefficients directly to high-dimensional electrochemical data like capacity-voltage and ΔV–state-of-charge, i.e., Q(V) and ΔV(SOC) curves, learning coefficients that can be physically interpreted. We leverage the ISU-ILCC battery aging data set to learn high-dimensional coefficients for early battery life prediction from traditional slow-rate capacity check data, demonstrating learning on Q(V), d Q· d V −1 , and ΔV(SOC) curves. A thorough study on the dependence of coefficient values on train/test size and data preprocessing methods is made, demonstrating the reliability of high-dimensional regression approaches unless very small amounts of data are used for model training. For this data set, coefficients from Q(V) and d Q· d V −1 models highlight changes in electrode stoichiometry due to lithium loss, while ΔV(SOC) coefficients highlight changes in positive electrode diffusivity due to particle cracking as well as electrode stoichiometry shifts. By directly interpreting the coefficients of a regression model, we make physical insights into battery degradation mechanisms without requiring the assumptions of traditional battery data analysis methods.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brain‐age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Abstract Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain‐age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain‐age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain‐age models pre‐trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain‐age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre‐trained brain‐age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best‐performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain‐age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5–90 years; 53.59% female). The pre‐trained models were tested for cross‐dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8–80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9–25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age‐bins (5–40 and 40–90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain‐age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain ( https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2 ), an open‐science, web‐based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-driven super-resolution in Raman hyperspectral imaging: Efficient high-resolution reconstruction from low-resolution data

Deep learning (DL) has become an indispensable tool in hyperspectral data analysis, automatically extracting valuable features from complex, high-dimensional datasets. Super-resolution reconstruction, an essential aspect of hyperspectral data, involves enhancing spatial resolution, particularly relevant to low-resolution hyperspectral data. Yet, the pursuit of super-resolution in hyperspectral analysis is fraught with challenges, including acquiring ground truth high-resolution data for training, generalization, and scalability. The pressing issue of extended spectral acquisition times, notably for high-resolution scans, is a significant roadblock in hyperspectral imaging. Super-resolution methods offer a promising solution by providing higher spatial resolution data to expedite data collection and yield more efficient outcomes. This paper delves into a practical application of these concepts using Raman imaging, where spectral acquisition times can be prohibitively long. In this context, DL-based super-resolution models demonstrate their efficacy by predicting and reconstructing high-resolution Raman data from low-resolution input, eliminating the need for resource-intensive high-resolution scans. While previous work often relied on substantial high-resolution datasets, this study showcases the ability to achieve similar outcomes even with limited data, presenting a more practical and cost-effective approach. In conclusion, the results offer a glimpse into the transformative potential of this technology to streamline hyperspectral imaging applications by saving valuable time and resources through the successful generation of high-resolution data from low-resolution inputs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Attention-based functional-group coarse-graining: a deep learning framework for molecular prediction and design

Machine learning (ML) offers considerable promise for the design of new molecules and materials. In real-world applications, the design problem is often domain-specific, and suffers from insufficient data, particularly labeled data, for ML training. In this study, we report a data-efficient, deep-learning framework for molecular discovery that integrates a coarse-grained functional-group representation with a self-attention mechanism to capture intricate chemical interactions. Our approach exploits group-contribution concepts to create a graph-based intermediate representation of molecules, serving as a low-dimensional embedding that substantially reduces the data demands typically required for training. Using a self-attention mechanism to learn the subtle but highly relevant chemical context of functional groups, the method proposed here consistently outperforms existing approaches for predictions of multiple thermophysical properties. In a case study focused on adhesive polymer monomers, we train on a limited dataset comprising only 6,000 unlabeled and 600 labeled monomers. The resulting chemistry prediction model achieves over 92% accuracy in forecasting properties directly from SMILES strings, exceeding the performance of current state-of-the-art techniques. Furthermore, the latent molecular embedding is invertible, enabling the design pipeline to automatically generate new monomers from the learned chemical subspace. We illustrate this functionality by targeting several properties, including high and low glass transition temperatures (Tg), and demonstrate that our model can identify new candidates with values that surpass those in the training set. The ease with which the proposed framework navigates both chemical diversity and data scarcity offers a promising route to accelerate and broaden the search for functional materials.

Han, Ming [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

PMU Data Quality and Sensor Health Monitoring

Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) play a critical role in the evolution of the electric power industry by providing high-precision, real-time monitoring of essential power system metrics. However, effectively detecting abnormalities and critical events from PMU data is a complex task, complicated by intricate temporal patterns, a scarcity of labeled data for training algo- rithms, and constraints on online computational power. In this study, we apply TranAD, an innovative algorithm that combines transformer architectures with the refinement of adversarial learning, to both synthetic and real-world PMU datasets for developing a data quality and sensor online health monitoring platform for utilities. Our findings reveal that TranAD not only provides efficient detection and localization but also enhances the detail with which abnormalities are detected, marking a a significant step forward in the field of clean data acquisition processes for power system monitoring

deep neural network, machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating Multiphase Simulations With Denoising Diffusion Model Driven Initializations

This study introduces a hybrid fluid simulation approach that integrates generative diffusion models with physics‐based simulations, aiming at reducing the computational costs of flow simulations while still honoring all the physical properties of interest. Pore‐scale simulations enhance our understanding of applications such as assessing hydrogen and storage efficiency in underground reservoirs. Nevertheless, they are computationally expensive and the presence of non‐unique solutions can require multiple simulations within a single geometry. To overcome the computational cost hurdle, we propose a method that couples generative diffusion models and physics‐based simulations. While training the data‐driven model, we simultaneously generate initial conditions and perform physics‐based simulations using these. This integrated approach enables us to receive real‐time feedback on a single compute node equipped with both CPUs and GPUs. By efficiently managing these processes within a single compute node, we can continuously monitor performance and halt training once the model meets the specified criteria. To test our model, we generate realizations in a real Berea sandstone fracture which shows that our technique is up to 4.4 times faster than commonly used flow simulation initializations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network Slicing for Federated Learning in Operational Technology Environment

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) environments are essential to modern infrastructure, facing challenges in ensuring low-latency, high-throughput communication while mitigating cyber threats. This paper presents a framework integrating Federated Learning (FL) and network slicing with Quality of Service (QoS) to enable real-time monitoring without disrupting OT operations. Leveraging digital twin technology and Network Function Virtualization (NFV), the architecture supports predictive analytics and Industry 4.0 requirements. FL facilitates decentralized model training, preserving data privacy and scalability, though it introduces potential throughput constraints. Network slicing addresses this by creating dedicated virtualized segments optimized for performance and security. Advanced fault tolerance at the container and instance levels enhances system reliability. The proposed architecture ensures high throughput, low latency, and secure orchestration for real-time anomaly detection in OT networks. Performance evaluations validate its efficiency in throughput, deployment, and learning accuracy, providing a robust foundation for future ICS automation and data-driven decision-making.

Delgado, Brian G. Rodiles [University of Texas at ↗
DOE OSTI2025

sup3ruhi (Super Resolution for Renewable Resource Data and Urban Heat Islands) [SWR-25-05]

Urban heat is a growing concern, particularly in dense metropolitan areas where high temperatures increase the risk of heat-related illness and drive energy expenses for cooling. Estimating the effects of urban heat remains a challenge due to limitations in describing the built environment, computational constraints, and the need for high-resolution data. This software presents open-source, computationally efficient machine learning methods that enhance the accuracy of urban temperature estimates compared to historical reanalysis data. Models trained using this software have been applied to urban microclimates in Los Angeles and Seattle showing greater accuracy and less bias when compared to low-resolution reanalysis datasets like ERA5 and even when compared to high-resolution mesoscale numerical weather models like WRF with an urban canopy model. Initial findings highlight how machine learning can support urban heat resilience planning by enabling improved assessments of local heat islands, mitigation strategies, and their energy implications. This software is an extension of (sup3r). This software supports the following publication: Buster, Grant, et al. Tackling Extreme Urban Heat: A Machine Learning Approach to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates. arXiv:2411.05952, arXiv, 8 Nov. 2024. arXiv.org, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.05952. And has related public data records available at: Buster, Grant, Cox, Jordan, Benton, Brandon, and King, Ryan. Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data and Urban Heat Islands (Sup3rUHI). United States: N.p., 16 Oct, 2024. Web. https://data.openei.org/submissions/6220.

Buster, Grant [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Searches Beyond the Standard Model in the ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift Detector

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events—making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving 31.9 ± 0.2% (26.6 ± 0.2%) ν efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, 17.5 ± 0.3% (18.3 ± 0.3%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Do We Really Need All That Data: From Data to Agency in Automated Microscopy

Microscopy is entering an era of automated laboratories and AI-enabled instruments, often justified by a simple narrative of automating experiments to collect more data and train better models. In this work, we argue that, for microscopy, this framing is incomplete and can be counterproductive.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗