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NASA NTRS2002

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall Assimilation on Global Analysis and QPF

Evaluation of QPF skills requires quantitatively accurate precipitation analyses. We show that assimilation of surface rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and many aspects of global analyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with analyses with satellite rainfall data generally yield significantly higher QPF threat scores and better storm track predictions. These results were obtained using a variational procedure that minimizes the difference between the observed and model rain rates by correcting the moist physics tendency of the forecast model over a 6h assimilation window. In two case studies of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, synoptic analysis shows that this procedure produces initial conditions with better-defined tropical storm features and stronger precipitation intensity associated with the storm.

Hou, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2002

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2002

A TRMM-Based System for Real-Time Quasi-Global Merged Precipitation Estimates

A new processing system has been developed to combine IR and microwave data into 0.25 degree x 0.25 degree gridded precipitation estimates in near-real time over the latitude band plus or minus 50 degrees. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) precipitation estimates are used to calibrate Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) estimates, and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) estimates, when available. The merged microwave estimates are then used to create a calibrated IR estimate in a Probability-Matched-Threshold approach for each individual hour. The microwave and IR estimates are combined for each 3-hour interval. Early results will be shown, including typical tropical and extratropical storm evolution and examples of the diurnal cycle. Major issues will be discussed, including the choice of IR algorithm, the approach for merging the IR and microwave estimates, extension to higher latitudes, retrospective processing back to 1999, and extension to the GPCP One-Degree Daily product (for which the authors are responsible). The work described here provides one approach to using data from the future NASA Global Precipitation Measurement program, which is designed to provide Jill global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours beginning around 2008.

Starr, David OC.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Summer Synoptic-Scale Waves over Tropical West Africa Observed by TRMM

A 5-year daily rainfall dataset (3B42) from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) is used to investigate the activity and properties of westward-propagating synoptic-scale waves over tropical West Africa. Evident wave signals appearing in wavenumber-frequency space show their modulations on the surface rainfall pattern during the boreal summer. Interannual variability exists in both their intensity and spectral properties, i. e., dominant frequency and wavenumber ranges. These variabilities can be partly ascribed to year-to-year variations of their embedded large-scale environment, especially the status of mid-tropospheric African easterly jet (AEJ). Generally, a stronger (weaker) AEJ indicates more (less) instability energy yielding a stronger (weaker) wave activity season. Seasonal mean rainfall has shown an impact on these waves in some years. However, the impact is not as clear and consistent as AEJ, implying the complexity of their relationship with large-scale environment. To fully understand interannual variability of synoptic-scale waves over tropical West Africa, including the variability in their preferred frequencies and wavenumbers, it is therefore necessary to examine possible intra-seasonal variations existing in both wave activity and large-scale fields, in addition to their structure, propagation, and associated convection.

Starr, David O.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of TRMM Data on Numerical Forecast of Mesoscale Systems

The impact of surface rainfall data derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI) on the numerical forecast of mesoscale systems is evaluated. A series of numerical experiments are performed that assimilate TMI rainfall data into the Penn State University/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. Experiments are conducted incorporating TMI rainfall data into the mesoscale model to improve hurricane initialization. It is found that assimilation of rainfall data into the model is beneficial in producing a more realistic eye and rain bands and also helps to improve the intensity forecast for the hurricane. Further 4DVAR experiments are performed on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Detailed results and related issues will be presented during the conference.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sounding-Diagnosed Convective Environments and Preliminary Energy Budgets Diagnosed during the TRMM Field Campaigns

An overview of mean convective thermodynamic and wind profiles for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) field campaigns will be presented, highlighting the diverse continental and marine tropical environments in which rain clouds and mesoscale convective systems evolved. An assessment of ongoing sounding quality control procedures will be shown. Additionally, we will present preliminary budgets of sensible heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2), which have been diagnosed from the various sounding networks.

Halverson, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Archetypal TRMM Radar Profiles Identified Through Cluster Analysis

It is widely held that identifiable 'convective regimes' exist in nature, although precise definitions of these are elusive. Examples include land / Ocean distinctions, break / monsoon beahvior, seasonal differences in the Amazon (SON vs DJF), etc. These regimes are often described by differences in the realized local convective spectra, and measured by various metrics of convective intensity, depth, areal coverage and rainfall amount. Objective regime identification may be valuable in several ways: regimes may serve as natural 'branch points' in satellite retrieval algorithms or data assimilation efforts; one example might be objective identification of regions that 'should' share a similar 2-R relationship. Similarly, objectively defined regimes may provide guidance on optimal siting of ground validation efforts. Objectively defined regimes could also serve as natural (rather than arbitrary geographic) domain 'controls' in studies of convective response to environmental forcing. Quantification of convective vertical structure has traditionally involved parametric study of prescribed quantities thought to be important to convective dynamics: maximum radar reflectivity, cloud top height, 30-35 dBZ echo top height, rain rate, etc. Individually, these parameters are somewhat deficient as their interpretation is often nonunique (the same metric value may signify different physics in different storm realizations). Individual metrics also fail to capture the coherence and interrelationships between vertical levels available in full 3-D radar datasets. An alternative approach is discovery of natural partitions of vertical structure in a globally representative dataset, or 'archetypal' reflectivity profiles. In this study, this is accomplished through cluster analysis of a very large sample (0[107) of TRMM-PR reflectivity columns. Once achieved, the rainconditional and unconditional 'mix' of archetypal profile types in a given location and/or season provides a description of the local convective spectrum which retains vertical structure information. A further cluster analysis of these 'mixes' can identify recurrent convective spectra. These are a first step towards objective identification of convective regimes, and towards answering the question: 'What are the most convectively similar locations in the world?'

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Influence of Radiosonde 'Age' on TRMM Field Campaign Soundings Humidity Correction

Hundreds of Vaisala sondes with a RS80-H Humicap thin-film capacitor humidity sensor were launched during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaigns in Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere held in Brazil (LBA) and in Kwajalein experiment (KWAJEX) held in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Using Six humidity error correction algorithms by Wang et al., these sondes were corrected for significant dry bias in the RS80-H data. It is further shown that sonde surface temperature error must be corrected for a better representation of the relative humidity. This error becomes prominent due to sensor arm-heating in the first 50-s data.

Roy, Biswadev↗
NASA NTRS2003

Regional Variability in Convection and Rain Retrievals from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)

Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite shows that the average height of 30 dBz in convective rain areas of the tropics varies significantly from one region to the other. When the convection is weak this height is shallow and when convection is strong this height extends deeper into the troposphere. The brightness temperature (Tb) measured by the microwave radiometer by itself does not reflect this nature of convection satisfactorily. Radiative transfer simulations of Tbs reveal that this could be due to the variations in the vertical distribution of optically active water and ice hydrometeors and their density, shape, and size. These variations are not coupled uniquely to the strength of the convective updrafts, and as a result the Tbs do not reflect properly the convective strength indicated by PR. Because of this deficiency in the Tbs the rain rate deduced from them differs from that of PR. For this reason, to improve the estimation of rain rate we have developed an empirical method. In this method a parameter based on the areal extent of the Tbs that exceed a certain magnitude is included along with the Tbs. Rain rate deduced with this approach is better correlated with that of PR when compared to the current Version 5 operational algorithm. The percentage of rain volume as a function of rain rate, for a given region of 5deg lat. X 5deg long. over a period of three months, deduced from this method, is also in better agreement with that of the PR.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Self Validation of Radiance Measurements from the CERES (TRMM)Instrument

Eight continuous months of earth-nadir-viewing radiance measurements from the 3-channel Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM,) Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanning radiometric measurement instrument, have been analyzed. While previous remote sensing satellites, such as the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) covered all subsets of the broadband radiance spectrum (total, longwave and shortwave.) CERES has two subset channels (window and shortwave) which do not give continuous frequency coverage over the total band. Previous experience with ERBE indicated the need for us to model the equivalent daytime longwave radiance using a window channel regression, which will allow us to validate the performance of the instrument using a three-channel inter-comparison. Limiting our consideration to the fixed azimuth plane, cross-track, scanning mode (FAPS), each nadir-viewing measurement was averaged into three subjective categories called daytime, nighttime, and twilight. Daytime was defined as any measurement taken when the solar zenith angle (SZA) was less than 90 ; nighttime was taken to be any measurement where the SZA was greater than 117 ; and twilight was everything else. Our analysis indicates that there are only two distinct categories of nadir-view data; daytime, and non-daytime (i.e., the union of the nighttime and twilight sets); and that the CERES longwave radiance is predictable to an accuracy of 1%, based on the SZA, and window channel measurements.

Paden, Jack↗
NASA NTRS2004

Quality Control and Analysis of Microphysical Data Collected in TRMM Aircraft Validation Experiments

This report summarizes our efforts on the funded project 'Quality Control and Analysis of Microphysical Data Collected in TRMM Airborne Validation Experiments', NASA NAG5-9663, Andrew Heymsfield, P. I. We begin this report by summarizing our activities in FY2000-FY2004. We then present some highlights of our work. The last part of the report lists the publications that have resulted from our funding through this grant.

Heymsfield, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features: Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics - Part 1

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to imiprove the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. I this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the Goddard research plan of using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2005

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System: TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. In this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2005

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features: Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics - Part 1

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity. areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%. and remaining 97.6%. The set of weakest/smallest features composes 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate of 0.7 flashes (fl) per minute. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl per minute; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85 GHz) and 69 K (37 GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335 000 square kilometers and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10 kg per hour of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global Tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations. seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land-ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗