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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Estimating risk for earth-satellite attenuation prediction

Annual cumulative distributions of attenuation measurements and of rain-rate measurements were obtained from several locations in Europe and the United States. They were analyzed to estimate the year-to-year variability to be associated with a prediction of the expected cumulative distribution. Two models were constructed to estimate variability, an ad hoc model that summarized a number of observations when compared to model predictions and a probabilistic model that applied the ideas of order statistics to the prediction problem when the number of independent attenuation or rain-rate events in a sample year could be estimated. Based on these models, the statistical uncertainty in a model prediction may be estimated. The estimation procedure also provides an answer to the question of the number of years of observation needed to provide an estimate of the empirical distribution with a specified statistical uncertainty.

Crane, Robert K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data/Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept was developed to improve the gate turnaround performance at the airport by leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of airport gate operations, which include: taxi to the gate, gate services, push back, taxi to the runway, and takeoff, based on available resources, constraints, and uncertainties. By analyzing events of gate operations, primary performance dependent attributes of these events were identified for the historical data analysis such that performance models can be developed based on uncertainties to support descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive functions. A system architecture was developed to examine system requirements in support of such a concept. An IGTM prototype was developed to demonstrate the concept using a distributed network and collaborative decision tools for stakeholders to meet on time pushback performance under uncertainties.

Big Data and Net-enabled ATM↗
NASA NTRS2016

Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

snow↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sage III/ISS Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment An Earth Science Mission on the International Space Station

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts routinely failed to account for measurement uncertainty and lacked a rigorous estimate of the inferred PSD uncertainty. We developed a PSD solution algorithm that infers single mode and bimodal distribution parameters and applied this algorithm to the SAGE II and SAGE III/ISS data record. Herein we describe the algorithm, evaluate its performance, and show results from the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption.

Travis N. Knepp↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessment of Dust Size Retrievals Based on AERONET: A Case Study of Radiative Closure From Visible-Near-Infrared to Thermal Infrared

Super-coarse dust particles (diameters >10 μm) are evidenced to be more abundant in the atmosphere than model estimates and contribute significantly to the dust climate impacts. Since super-coarse dust accounts for less dust extinction in the visible-to-near-infrared (VIS-NIR) than in the thermal infrared (TIR) spectral regime, they are suspected to be underestimated by remote sensing instruments operates only in VIS-NIR, including Aerosol Robotic Networks (AERONET), a widely used data set for dust model validation. In this study, we perform a radiative closure assessment using the AERONET-retrieved size distribution in comparison with the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) TIR observations with comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The consistently warm bias in the comparisons suggests a potential underestimation of super-coarse dust in the AERONET retrievals due to the limited VIS-NIR sensitivity. An extra super-coarse mode included in the AERONET-retrieved size distribution helps improve the TIR closure without deteriorating the retrieval accuracy in the VIS-NIR.

thermal infrared (TIR)↗
NASA NTRS1991

Cosmic-ray distribution and the dynamic balance in the Large Magellanic Cloud

The cosmic-ray energy density distribution for the LMC is calculated quantitatively based on the concept of dynamic balance and a scale of coupling between the cosmic rays and matter in a range allowed by present observations. Based on the very slowly varying ratio of the cosmic-ray electron to nucleon energy density ratio with relevant local galactic conditions and the close similarities to the galaxy, the cosmic-ray nucleon density distribution in the LMC is also determined from cosmic-ray electron density distribution deduced from synchrotron radiation measurements in a manner consistent with dynamic balance. It is seen that within uncertainties there is quantitative agreement between the two for a cosmic-ray, matter coupling scale of about 2.5 kiloparsecs both in terms of magnitude and distribution, thus supporting both the concept of dynamic balance and the galactic origin of the bulk of cosmic rays. Future gamma-ray astronomy measurement above 100 MeV will be able to provide a test of this cosmic-ray density distribution for the LMC.

Fichtel, Carl E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing the Seasonal and Diurnal Aerosol Cycles using CATS Space-Based Lidar

The broader effects aerosols have on the earth and climate system is determined by a host of factors including their composition and vertical distribution. Characterizing the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols is especially important considering it remains one of the greatest uncertainties in climate predictions. Space-based lidar, such as Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS), is especially well suited as a remote sensing tool in determining this vertical distribution. CALIOP has been used for over a decade to observe the global and vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols but is limited by Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations’ (CALIPSO’s) polar orbit to set equatorial crossing times of ~1:30AM/PM. This limited temporal sampling limits the use of CALIOP in determining the full diurnal variability of clouds and aerosols. On the International Space Station (ISS), with its inclined orbit and variable equatorial crossing times, the CATS lidar provided an opportunity to study the vertical profile of clouds and aerosols at a variety of local times. With this 33-month CATS record, we show that CATS captured the seasonal changes in global aerosol distributions and compares favorably with other instruments and models. Specifically targeting biomass burning regions, we also find CATS could observe the documented diurnal cycle in aerosol altitudes with some caveats. With the next generation of proposed space-based lidars including designs in similar orbits as the ISS and CATS, future studies of the aerosol diurnal and seasonal cycles would also be possible.

Kenneth Christian↗
NASA NTRS2015

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1981

Satellite and correlative measurements of the stratospheric aerosol. II Comparison of measurements made by SAM II, dustsondes and airborne lidar

Results are shown from the first set of measurements conducted to validate extinction data from the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement II (SAM II). Dustsonde-measured number density profiles and lidar-measured backscattering profiles for two days are converted to extinction profiles, and are shown to agree within their respective uncertainties at all heights above the tropopause. Near the tropopause, agreement depends on use of model size distributions with larger particles, having radii greater than 0.6 microns. The presence of such large particles is supported by measurements made elsewhere, is suggested by the in situ size distribution measurements reported, and is likely to have an important bearing on the radiative impact of the total stratospheric aerosol. It is concluded that the SAM II extinction data and uncertainty estimates are supported.

Russell, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Error Distribution of BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Locations

Empirical probability models for BATSE gamma-ray burst (GRB) location errors are developed via a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 392 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 19 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4Br BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the probability in a "core" term with a systematic error of 1.85 deg and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.1 deg, which implies a 68% confidence radius for bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties of 2.2 deg. There is evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE data type that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT data type, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence radius for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties is 2.0 deg.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Satellite and correlative measurements of the stratospheric aerosol. I An optical model for data conversions

A description is presented of an empirically based model of stratospheric aerosol optical properties (size distributions and refractive indices) and their variations. The need for such a model arose in the data validation and archival programs for two satellite sensors, SAM II and SAGE. These programs require the ability to convert measurements of a given aerosol macroproperty (e.g., volume extinction coefficient, volume backscatter coefficient, particle number or mass per unit volume) to best estimates of other aerosol macroproperties, and to assess quantitatively the uncertainties in the conversion process. The described model provides the information on size distributions, refractive indices and their variations necessary for these tasks, and also defines a procedure for combining the model information with empirical data in a way that facilitates automatic data processing. Although the model was developed for use in the satellite validation and archival programs, it also has proven useful in other studies of stratospheric aerosol.

Russell, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

How many Earth-approaching asteroids are there?

The discovery process of Earth-approaching asteroids is formulated as a periodic sampling problem from an urn with replacement. It presumes as unchanging number of such objects over recent historical times, a fixed limiting magnitude/angular speed combination for detection probability, and allows for the possibility of the lack of detection or the lack of sufficient observations to refine an orbit at the first noticed apparition. While simple, the model is sufficiently powerful to show that an estimate of the number of Earth-approaching minor planets is impossible. This conclusion is insensitive to uncertainties in perturbing influences, celestial mechanics, or a model for the distribution of the orbital element sets of these minor planets.

Taff, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

How many earth-approaching asteroids are there?

The discovery process of earth-approaching asteroids is formulated as a periodic sampling problem from an urn with replacement. It presumes as unchanging number of such objects over recent historical times, a fixed limiting magnitude/angular speed combination for detection probability, and allows for the possibility of the lack of detection or the lack of sufficient observations to refine an orbit at the first noticed apparition. While simple, the model is sufficiently powerful to show that an estimate of the number of earth-approaching minor planets is impossible. This conclusion is insensitive to uncertainties in perturbing influences, celestial mechanics, or a model for the distribution of the orbital element sets of these minor planets.

Taff, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar wind parameters and magnetospheric coupling studies

This paper presents distributions, means, and standard deviations of the fluxes of solar wind protons, momentum, and energy as observed near earth during the solar quiet and active years 1976 and 1979. Distributions of ratios of energies (Alfven Mach number, plasma beta) and distributions of interplanetary magnetic field orientations are also given. Finally, the uncertainties associated with the use of the libration point orbiting ISEE-3 spacecraft as a solar wind monitor are discussed.

King, Joseph H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Measured and calculated optical property profiles in the mixed layer and free troposphere

Nearly simultaneous measurements of the physical and optical properties of mixed layer and free tropospheric aerosols near Boulder, Colorado, were made on several occasions using aircraft, balloon, and ground-based sensors. This effort (Front Range Lidar, Aircraft, and Balloon experiment (FRLAB)) was conducted with the purpose of obtaining a diverse, self-consistent data set that could be used for testing optical model calculations based on measured physical characteristics such as apparent size distribution, composition, and shape. It was found that even with the uncertainties involved, the model predictions are in good agreement with the measurements in the visible and near infrared wavelength regions. At CO2 lidar wavelengths there is considerably more uncertainty in both the calculated and measured values; however, within the estimated errors there appears to be satisfactory agreement except for the highest free tropospheric layer studied. The results also indicate that during FRLAB the aerosol in the boundary layer and free troposphere behaved as spherical particles for optical modeling purposes. The utility of the observations for determining the extinction-to-backscatter ratio relevant to aerosols in the boundary layer and free troposphere is described with typical measured values being in the 20 to 30 sr range.

Rosen, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗