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Results for “uncertainty quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Yttrium solid phase equation of state with uncertainty quantification

We discuss the development of an equation of state (EOS) for solid yttrium up to roughly 80 GPa. The EOS makes use of different experimental datasets, including measurements of the isobaric density, isobaric specific heat, room temperature isotherm, and principal shock Hugoniot. The fitting procedure is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), where we fit model parameters for both the cold curve and ion thermal models simultaneously. The results show close agreement with experimental data and provide meaningful uncertainty estimates on the model parameters. This work serves as a first step towards a multiphase EOS for yttrium, which will include higher pressure solid phases (> 80 GPa), as well as modeling of the liquid phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in breakup reactions

Breakup reactions are one of the favored probes to study loosely bound nuclei, particularly those in the limit of stability forming a halo. In order to interpret such breakup experiments, the continuum discretized coupled channel method is typically used. In this study, the first Bayesian analysis of a breakup reaction model is performed. Herein we use a combination of statistical methods together with a three-body reaction model (the continuum discretized coupled channel method) to quantify the uncertainties on the breakup observables due to the parameters in the effective potential describing the loosely bound projectile of interest. The combination of tools we develop opens the path for a Bayesian analysis of not only breakup processes, but also a wide array of complex processes that require computationally intensive reaction models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) Code Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Electron Number Albedo in Various Materials

In the 1970’s and 1980’s, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories produced electron albedo data for a range of materials. Since that time, the electron albedo data has been used for a wide variety of purposes including the validation of Monte Carlo electron transport codes. This report was compiled to examine the electron albedo experiment results in the context of Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) validation. The report presents tables and figures that could provide insight into the underlying model form uncertainty present in the ITS code. Additionally, the report provides data on potential means to reduce these model form errors by highlighting potential refinements in the cross-section generation process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Behavior of Rough AM Surfaces and Microstructures to Enable Hydrogen Gas Turbine Combustion

Modification of fossil-fueled industrial gas turbines to accept no/low carbon fuels (Hydrogen, H2/natural gas blends) is a significant undertaking. Successful deployment of this technology sits at the intersection of three design criteria (1) new functional fuel injectors that can burn these fuels, (2) manufacturability to meet cost and time-to-market targets, and (3) durability in the harsh environment of an operating turbine. Additive manufacturing (AM) provides accelerated product development. However, uncertainty remains around the durability of parts with rough AM surfaces. A fully experimental approach towards quantifying fatigue performance of rough AM microstructures is costly and laborious. Instead, Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar) proposes the use of a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model to quantify the factors that drive AM surface fatigue behavior. Solar will use the CPFE results, along with targeted experimental data, to train a computationally efficient surrogate model that can be incorporated into existing turbine part lifing methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reactivity initiated accident uncertainty quantification for fuel assembly with subchannel code

UNIST CORE lab has developed a multiphysics coupling framework (MPCORE) consisting of Neutronics, Thermal Hydraulics and Fuel Performance modules. It can accommodate one-dimensional as well as sub-channel code Thermal Hydraulics (TH) module. Generally, running a transient requires more computational power due to the convergence of modules with each other. The difference between one-dimensional and sub-channel TH modules is studied in this research for a Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA). Both TH modules are compared for a RIA uncertainty propagation in a single VERA fuel assembly with 2.11% enrichment. MPCORE is capable of analyzing the transient at any burnup point but for current work, only fresh fuel has been considered. The results have been obtained using dynamic gap heat conductance in FRAPTRAN. Peak centerline temperature, fuel enthalpy and DNBR are compared for both the approaches. The results indicate that the use of sub-channel code lead to greater safety margin for critical parameters. Computation time comparison is also presented for both the cases. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Uncertainty Quantification on SAM Simulations of EBR-II Loss-of-Flow Tests

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is a modern system analysis tool being developed at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, whole-plant transient analyses capability with improved-fidelity for SFR, LFR, and MSR/FHR. In prior work, SAM has performed well in modeling the EBR-II benchmark based on the SHRT-17 and SHRT-45R protected and unprotected loss-of-flow experiments. However, underlying uncertainties in the modeling parameters need to be quantified to gain confidence in any best-estimate simulations. In this work, a Python coupling framework between Dakota and SAM has been developed to investigate these uncertainties, alongside code enhancements in SAM for user-flexibility in perturbing physical closure models and fluid equations of state. 25 significant input parameters covering boundary conditions, geometry, physical closure models, and equations of state were identified with their uncertainties defined from literature. Two SAM transient models for SHRT-17 and SHRT-45R were perturbed on these input parameters using Latin Hypercube Sampling and the uncertainties in predicted maximum fuel, cladding, and coolant temperatures were quantified as the output responses. Spearman rank correlation of input parameters to the predicted temperatures indicated that the most sensitive parameters include the initial core power, pipe wall drag, fuel & coolant conductivity, and peak channel flow area. Sensitivity of input parameters was found to differ between the two transients and core channel modeling strategies. The overall perturbations did not result in large uncertainties in the predicted temperatures, despite the efforts made to obtain accurate yet conservative input uncertainties.

Mui, Travis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction and uncertainty quantification of lattice Hamiltonian model parameters from observations of microscopic degrees of freedom

The emergence of scanning probe and electron beam imaging techniques has allowed quantitative studies of atomic structure and minute details of electronic and vibrational structure on the level of individual atomic units. These microscopic descriptors, in turn, can be associated with local symmetry breaking phenomena, representing the stochastic manifestation of the underpinning generative physical model. In this work, we explore the reconstruction of exchange integrals in the Hamiltonian for a lattice model with two competing interactions from observations of microscopic degrees of freedom and establish the uncertainties and reliability of such analysis in a broad parameter-temperature space. In contrast to other approaches, we specifically specify a loss function inherent to thermodynamic systems and utilize it to estimate uncertainty in simulated realizations of different models. As an ancillary task, we develop a machine learning approach based on histogram clustering to predict phase diagrams efficiently using a reduced descriptor space. We further demonstrate that reconstruction is possible well above the phase transition and in the regions of parameter space when the macroscopic ground state of the system is poorly defined due to frustrated interactions. This suggests that this approach can be applied to the traditionally complex problems of condensed matter physics such as ferroelectric relaxors and morphotropic phase boundary systems, spin and cluster glasses, and quantum systems once the local descriptors linked to the relevant physical behaviors are known.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based algorithms for uncertainty quantification in numerical weather prediction models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Improved Decision Making for the Smarter Grid: Geomagnetic Disturbance Implicit Modeling Uncertainty Quantification

Geomagnetic disturbances can greatly disrupt the power grid operation. This is caused by low-frequency changes in the earth’s magnetic field, which upon interaction with the deep earth conductivity induces a changing electric field at the earth’s surface. This in turn induces quasi-direct currents which have the potential to cause protective devices to operate, widespread damage to high-voltage transformers, or voltage collapse due to induced reactive power losses. While these impacts have been known since the 1940s, only recently have standards for GMD response been implemented. Because these standards are heavily based on models, it is important to understand when it is appropriate to make certain modeling assumptions. In this work, implicit modeling uncertainty is quantified for the purpose of enhanced decision making for disturbance impact mitigation. Considering electromagnetic models, modeling assumptions of non-uniform grounding, imbalanced operation, transformer saturation, and geomagnetically induced currents, voltage estimation values are analyzed. Statistical characteristics of modeling uncertainty are obtained by analysis of synthetically generated data. Results statistically characterize geomagnetic disturbances modeling uncertainty, providing an important tool for impact mitigation.

grid analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Uncertainty Quantification in the Explainability of Large Language Models for the Nuclear Industry

The meteoric rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) large language models (LLMs) has created an opportunity to utilize them to increase efficiencies in a multitude of industries. While LLMs carry great potential to revolutionize the manner in which work is performed, numerous known deficiencies limit their utility, including the black box nature of the models, the stochastic nature of the response (i.e., presenting the same prompt multiple times results in different responses), and the potential for hallucination. Widespread adoption of LLMs in safety-critical industries such as nuclear will require some form of explainability to assure end users that the LLM’s response to a given query is valid. Model uncertainty is inherently linked to the concepts of trust and explainability, and can be used to identify situations in which the model is insufficiently certain about its answer. Although uncertainty is not enough in and of itself to determine the suitability of an answer—a model can be very certain of an inaccurate answer—it still provides valuable supporting information. Practical methodologies for gauging or quantifying the uncertainty in LLM outputs are presented herein, along with examples based on nuclear-specific prompts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System with Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Modeling and Data Package

Groundwater residence times provide fundamental descriptions of hydrologic dynamics and mixing processes in mountainous watersheds. Yet, few observational datasets that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales are available in high elevation mountain systems. Here we present field observations from May 2021 of dissolved noble gases (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe), Chloroflourcarbons (CFCs), Sulfurhexaflouride (SF6), and tritium (3H) sampled from the Pumphouse Lower Montane study site (wells PLM1, PLM6, and PLM7) within the East River Watershed, Colorado. The presented noble gas (PLM_noblegas_2021.csv) and environmental tracer (PLM_tracers_2021.csv) observation datasets, along with the associated modeling scripts, aide in quantifying groundwater residence times and recharge conditions in a high elevation mountain system. Furthermore, the modeling scripts quantify groundwater residence time and noble gas recharge condition uncertainties using a novel Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach. All data modeling scripts are written in the Python code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds

Although a variety of climate datasets are now available, including observational and model products, there remains a pressing need for the development of a unified, automated and application-focused approach for evaluating and comparing climate extremes within and across these datasets. Precipitation frequency (PF) es- timates for extreme precipitation events are useful decision-relevant quantities among water managers. Our objective and quantitative framework for computing PF estimates of any duration uses known techniques in a novel combination. Our framework consists of three steps: (1) use of a regionalization-based statistical method for precipitation frequency estimation at observed sites; this involves hierarchical clustering (here we used Ward’s method) for delineating homogeneous regions, and regional frequency analysis using L-moments; (2) use of kriging for spatial mapping because of its advantages over other conventional interpolation methods; (3) use of z-scores accounts for estimation uncertainties when comparing PF estimates between datasets. The 24-h PF estimates in the Kissimmee-Southern Florida watershed (flat topography) and the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed (complex topography) demonstrate the applicability of this approach in regions of any geographical complexity. Our results are shown to be reasonably calibrated using the probability integral transform (PIT) histogram of the best fitted distribution. Our results are compared with that of the NOAA Atlas 14 reports and show that for most of the stations the two estimates are statistically indistinguishable; and, the confidence intervals of our estimates are narrower than those of the NOAA estimates. Our approach is applicable to a variety of datasets and provides a baseline for assessing performance of climate models in historical simulations – a necessary first step towards analyzing future projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Creep anisotropy modeling and uncertainty quantification of an additively manufactured Ni-based superalloy

The advantages offered by additive manufacturing over traditional processes has driven a great deal of industrial and academic interest in recent years. However, the process is relatively new and requires additional investigation to become sufficiently mature for wide scale industrial adoption. Electron beam melting powder bed fusion is one technology that has shown promise for fabricating high temperature resistant materials such as nickel based superalloys. The resulting microstructures typically exhibit a strong fiber texture in the build direction giving rise to anisotropic time-dependent deformation behavior. In order to accelerate the qualification of these materials for industrial adoption accurate numerical models are needed for simulating their behavior. In this work a crystal plasticity model including non-Schmid effects is presented for capturing creep anisotropy observed in additively manufactured IN738LC. The model is calibrated via a probabilistic framework where model parameters are treated as random variables. An iterative sequential design strategy is utilized to efficiently identify the probability density of the unknown model parameters. As a case study the model is utilized to investigate the behavior of randomly oriented equiaxed grain clusters sometimes observed embedded in the additively manufactured columnar structure. A synthetic realization is simulated and uncertainty is propagated through to the full-field response. Results indicate that these features are the source of significant creep relaxation and strain accumulation which partially explains observed grain boundary decohesion at these locations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗