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At least 343 records · Page 19

A Comprehensive Reliability Methodology for Assessing Risk of Reusing Failed Hardware Without Corrective Actions with and Without Redundancy

This paper deals with the development of a reliability methodology to assess the consequences of using hardware, without failure analysis or corrective action, that has previously demonstrated that it did not perform per specification. The subject of this paper arose from the need to provide a detailed probabilistic analysis to calculate the change in probability of failures with respect to the base or non-failed hardware. The methodology used for the analysis is primarily based on principles of Monte Carlo simulation. The random variables in the analysis are: Maximum Time of Operation (MTO) and operation Time of each Unit (OTU) The failure of a unit is considered to happen if (OTU) is less than MTO for the Normal Operational Period (NOP) in which this unit is used. NOP as a whole uses a total of 4 units. Two cases are considered. in the first specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen if any of the units used during the NOP fail. in the second specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen only if any two of the units used during the MOP fail together. The probability of failure of the units and the system as a whole is determined for 3 kinds of systems - Perfect System, Imperfect System 1 and Imperfect System 2. in a Perfect System, the operation time of the failed unit is the same as that of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 1, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as 1 percent of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 2, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as zero. in addition, simulated operation time of failed units is assumed as 10 percent of the corresponding units before zero value. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used for this study. Necessary software has been developed as part of this study to perform the reliability calculations. The results of the analysis showed that the predicted change in failure probability (P(sub F)) for the previously failed units is as high as 49 percent above the baseline (perfect system) for the worst case. The predicted change in system P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 36% for single unit failure without any redundancy. For redundant systems, with dual unit failure, the predicted change in P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 16%. These results will help management to make decisions regarding the consequences of using previously failed units without adequate failure analysis or corrective action.

Putcha, Chandra S.↗

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Effect of rawinsonde errors on rocketsonde density and pressure profiles: An error analysis of the Rawinsonde System

An initial value of pressure is required to derive the density and pressure profiles of the rocketborne rocketsonde sensor. This tie-on pressure value is obtained from the nearest rawinsonde launch at an altitude where overlapping rawinsonde and rocketsonde measurements occur. An error analysis was performed of the error sources in these sensors that contribute to the error in the tie-on pressure. It was determined that significant tie-on pressure errors result from radiation errors in the rawinsonde rod thermistor, and temperature calibration bias errors. To minimize the effect of these errors radiation corrections should be made to the rawinsonde temperature and the tie-on altitude should be chosen at the lowest altitude of overlapping data. Under these conditions the tie-on error, and consequently the resulting error in the Datasonde pressure and density profiles is less tha 1%. The effect of rawinsonde pressure and temperature errors on the wind and temperature versus height profiles of the rawinsonde was also determined.

Luers, J. K.↗

A practical obstacle detection system for the Mars Rover

Discussion of an obstacle detection system which uses a laser range finder as the principal sensing device. The laser scans the scene ahead and stores the range data for the terrain in a matrix form. This matrix can be thought of as a 'range image'. This range varies from point to point, but sharp changes are caused by the presence of obstacles. Some existing algorithms and one developed by the authors were used to obtain the outlines of obstacles from the 'range image'. All these algorithms end with a thresholding operation. A theoretical analysis shows how a proper value of the threshold may be chosen, given the type of irregularity of the terrain to be detected. The analysis also shows how large the statistics of measurement noise can be allowed without leading to false alarms.

Reed, M.↗

Vibration studies

Computer program calculations of upper and lower bounds to nonzero bending frequencies of missiles

GUIDED MISSILE↗

Population inversion calculations using near resonant charge exchange as a pumping mechanism

Near resonance charge exchange between ions of a large ionization potential gas such as helium or neon and vapors of metals such as zinc, cadmium, selenium, or tellurium has produced laser action in the metal ion gas. The possibility of obtaining population inversions in near resonant charge exchange systems (Xe-Ca, Xe-Mg, Xe-Sr, Xe-Ba, Ar-Mg, N-Ca) was investigated. The analysis is an initial value problem that utilizes rate equations for the densities of relevant levels of the laser gas (Ca, Ba, Mg, or Sr) and an electron energy equation. Electron excitation rates are calculated using the Bohr-Thomson approximation for the cross section. Approximations to experimental values of the electron ionization cross section and the ion-atom charge exchange cross section are used. Preliminary results have been obtained for the Ca-Xe system and show that it is possible to obtain gains greater than 10 to the 14th power/m with inversion times up to 8x10 to the minus 7th power second. A possible charge exchange laser system using a MPD arc plasma accelerator is also described.

Chubb, D. L.↗

On the question of the energy of the precessional dynamo

The various estimates for the coupling mechanism by which precession transfers rotational, kinetic energy of earth into the energy of its magnetic field are generally considering hydromagnetic stresses that originate between mantle and core. Estimates of the energy of the geomagnetic field calculated from the data of spherical harmonic analysis derive precession energy values in reasonable agreement with the observed external energy of the geomagnetic field and with the rate of ohmic dissipation of energy in the core.

Dolginov, S. S.↗

Pulsed X-ray observations of Cen X-3 from Ariel-5

The 4.8 second X-ray pulsations from Centaurus X-3 were monitored by the MSSL collimated proportional counter on board Ariel-5 between 18-27 January 1975. Analysis of the source Doppler effect shows that the pulsation period of Cen X-3 decreased by 3.70 + or - 0.04 milliseconds during the preceding 2.3 years. The Doppler analysis also yields updated values for the binary phase and period of Cen X-3. Phase zero occurred at JD 2442438.628 + or - 0.003, and the average heliocentric binary period between October 1972 and January 1975 was 2.087129 + or - 0.000007 days. Light curves of the 4.8 second pulsations in the 3-9 keV band are characterized by two pronounced peaks, in contrast with the single peak profiles observed by Uhuru.

Tuohy, I. R.↗

Evaluation of surface water resources from machine-processing of ERTS multispectral data

The surface water resources of a large metropolitan area, Marion County (Indianapolis), Indiana, are studied in order to assess the potential value of ERTS spectral analysis to water resources problems. The results of the research indicate that all surface water bodies over 0.5 ha were identified accurately from ERTS multispectral analysis. Five distinct classes of water were identified and correlated with parameters which included: degree of water siltiness; depth of water; presence of macro and micro biotic forms in the water; and presence of various chemical concentrations in the water. The machine processing of ERTS spectral data used alone or in conjunction with conventional sources of hydrological information can lead to the monitoring of area of surface water bodies; estimated volume of selected surface water bodies; differences in degree of silt and clay suspended in water and degree of water eutrophication related to chemical concentrations.

Mausel, P. W.↗

Laboratory band strengths of methane and their application to the atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Titan

This paper reports laboratory studies of the visible spectrum of methane at column densities between 0.4 and 5 km-am and confirms the identification of bands at 4410, 4590, 4860, 5090, 5430, 5760, and 5970 A as caused by methane. Detailed equivalent-width measurements at 15 different pressure path lengths are employed to determine curves of growth and band strengths for the bands at 4410, 4860, 5430, and 5760 A. Using the curve-of-growth measurements in the reduction of planetary observations, the methane abundances in the atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn are found to be between a factor of 3 and 4 larger than previously accepted values based on the analysis of the 3 nu(3) band at 1.1 microns, while the amount on Titan is significantly less than that obtained from an analysis of the same band with the assumption of a pure methane atmosphere. The present results, when combined with the band analysis, suggest a surface pressure on Titan of at least 0.4 atm. Extrapolation of these laboratory data to observations of Uranus and Neptune lead to single-air-mass column densities of 5.8 and 7.6 km-am of methane, respectively.

Lutz, B. L.↗

Evaluation of water samples collected during LANDSAT-1 overpasses of the lower Chesapeake Bay area

Water samples were collected on 18 days when the LANDSAT-1 satellite was passing over the lower Chesapeake Bay area. A correlation between the various water parameters has been performed for the more than 300 surface samples. Six days were sufficiently cloudless that MSS digital tapes were useful for analysis. Correlation of radiance values with the water parameters revealed a low correlation for chlorophyll and good correlations with particles and sediment. The relation of total particles to sediment was linear, but varied from day to day.

Bowker, D. E.↗

Compliance calibration of specimens used in the R-curve practice

The compliance calibrations for the compact (CS) and crack-line-wedge-loaded (CLWL) specimens have been determined by experimental measurements and by boundary-collocation analysis. The CS and CLWL specimen configurations were modeled more accurately than those used in previous analytical investigations. Polynomial expressions for the compliance at various stations along the crack line for CS and CLWL specimens are presented. The compliance calibrations for the center-crack tension (CCT) specimen have been determined theoretically by boundary-collocation and finite-element analysis. The calculated compliance values for the CCT specimen are compared with values obtained from the Irwin-Westergaard expression and from a modification to the Irwin-Westergaard expression proposed by Eftis and Liebowitz. The Eftis-Liebowitz expression was found to be in good agreement (plus or minus 2 percent) with both analyses for crack aspect ratios up to 0.8 and for gage half-span to specimen width ratios up to 0.5.

Mccabe, D. E.↗

Synthetic aperture radar operator tactical target acquisition research

A radar target acquisition research study was conducted to access the effects of two levels of 13 radar sensor, display, and mission parameters on operator tactical target acquisition. A saturated fractional-factorial screening design was employed to examine these parameters. Data analysis computed ETA squared values for main and second-order effects for the variables tested. Ranking of the research parameters in terms of importance to system design revealed four variables (radar coverage, radar resolution/multiple looks, display resolution, and display size) accounted for 50 percent of the target acquisition probability variance.

Hershberger, M. L.↗

Physical properties of aerosols in Titan's atmosphere as deduced from visible observations

Analysis of the absolute value of Titan's albedo and its variation with increasing phase angle has yielded constraints on the optical properties and average particle size of the aerosols responsible for the scattering of visible light. The real index of refraction of the scattering material lies within the range 1.5 approximately less than nr approximately less than 2.0 and the average particle size is somewhere between 0.2 micrometer and 0.4 micrometer. The amount of limb darkening produced by these models leads to an occultation radius of approximately 2700 km.

Rages, K.↗

Calibration standards and field instruments for the precision measurement of insolation

The paper describes the development of an absolute calibration standard for irradiance measurements. This field instrument, designated the Kendall Radiometer System Mark 3, is identical to the PACRAD (Primary Absolute Cavity Radiometer) except for a modification to ensure all weather operation. Two Mark 3 radiometers have been in operation at the JPL's Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex for over two years and are continuing to provide data which are within plus or minus 1% of the absolute value. A calibration stability analysis is presented for the two instruments.

Reid, M. S.↗