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NASA NTRS2019

Earth in Five Reactions: Grappling With Meaning and Value in Science

The Earth in Five Reactions Workshop posed two significant challenges: (1) the formulation of a conceptual definition of “reaction” and (2) the identification and ranking of the “most important reactions” in the context of planetary evolution. Attempted answers to those challenges, collated in this collection of articles, reflect both the opportunities and hurdles when scientists deal with questions of meaning and value.

Epistemology↗

NASA NTRS2024

Intrastep, Stage-Value Predictors for Diagonally-Implicit Runge-Kutta Methods

To better identify the necessary attributes of good stage-value predictors (SVPs), numerous SVPs are designed for an existing: ESDIRK4(3)7L[2]SA [26] and a new: ESDIRK4(3)8L[2]SA scheme.1 Both are stifflyaccurate, stage-order two, explicit, singly-diagonally implicit Runge–Kutta (ESDIRK) schemes. Tradeoffs are studied in the parameter spaces enforcing the constraints on accuracy, linear stability, nonlinear stability and coefficient size to determine which objectives correlate with effective predictors. The SVPs are tested on three challenging external aerodynamics problems [107 − 108 degrees of freedom (DoFs)], each with a different level of stiffness. The problems include two 3D airfoils simulations and one canonical turbulence simulation. All simulations use the compressible Navier-Stokes equations (CNSE). An entropy stable spectral collocation formulation is used for discretizing the spatial terms in the equations. Simulations are performed at a wide variety of temporal error tolerances. Problems that are sufficiently stiff (e.g., lax temporal error tolerances) benefit from SVPs designed with second-order accuracy and stability properties: A-stability, and L-stability, rather than high accuracy constraints. Simulations with modest stiffness (e.g., strict error tolerances) are better suited for SVPs designed using high accuracy constraints. Designing SVPs with enhanced stability properties is tedious but worthwhile. Simulation times are reduced with optimal SVPs by as much as 100% on some stages, with combined stepwise improvements of between 50 − 100% for both methods. A comparative study is performed with the two aforementioned methods as well as four other ESDIRKs. The newly designed ESDIRK4(3)8L[2]SA with γ ≈ 1/10, proves to be the most efficient of the six tested ESDIRK schemes simulating the CNSE.

Diagonally-Implicit Runge-Kutta↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework: Informing Cybersecurity Decisions

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework is a tool that can be used by hydropower plant manager to make more educated cybersecurity investments. Users can take a self guided assessment allowing the tools to generate risk, impact and cybersecurity scores and be given risk-based recommendations to enhance decision-making.

CVF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase transitions at unusual values of θ

We calculate the θ dependence in a cousin of QCD, where the vacuum structure can be analyzed exactly. The theory is $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 SU(2) gauge theory with N F = 0, 1, 2, 3 flavors of fundamentals, explicitly broken to $\mathcal{N}$ = 1 via an adjoint superpotential, and coupled to anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking (AMSB). The hierarchy m AMSB ≪ μ 𝒩=1 ≪ Λ ensures the validity of our IR analysis. As expected from ordinary QCD, the vacuum energy is a function of θ which undergoes 1st order phase transitions between different vacua where the various dyons condense. For N F = 0 we find the expected phase transition at θ = π, while for N F = 1, 2, 3 we find phase transitions at fractional values of π.

Extended Supersymmetry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Acetate-based biological platforms: Bridging carbon dioxide utilization and high-value bioproduct production in oleaginous yeasts

Acetate is emerging as a promising two-carbon substrate in the circular bioeconomy, bridging the gap between single-carbon sources and high-value biofuels and bioproducts. This review examines the key pathways for acetate production, including the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide, syngas fermentation, and biological acetogenesis. It focuses on acetate metabolism in oleaginous yeasts, such as Yarrowia lipolytica and Rhodotorula toruloides, which efficiently convert acetate-derived acetyl-CoA units into diverse bioproducts such as lipids, fatty alcohols, triacetic acid lactone, and carotenoids. Recent advances in metabolic engineering, transcriptomics, and metabolic flux analysis have improved the understanding of acetate assimilation in these organisms, thereby increasing their potential for industrial applications. In addition, the feasibility of a biological gas-to-liquid platform that utilizes acetate as a central intermediate for scalable biomanufacturing is discussed. Integrating acetate utilization with sustainable production strategies offers a promising path to advance the bio-based economy. Using acetate as a versatile metabolic intermediate enables the conversion of industrial emissions into biofuels and bioproducts while avoiding the energetic and toxicity constraints associated with direct fermentation of gaseous substrates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effect of H 2 O on the ethylene glycol/alkali dismantling of bagasse for high-value conversion

Using a high-boiling alcohol system to dismantle main components of biomass is a feasible technology. Reducing dismantle operating costs and improving dismantle efficiency are essential for promoting the green, economical, and sustainable development of biomass refining. Therefore, based on the low cost and chemical properties of H 2 O at high temperature, the effects of different H 2 O dosages in NaOH-catalyzed ethylene glycol (HBAA) system on the dismantling efficiency of bagasse, surface lignin coverage, recovered-lignin activity and enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency were investigated. Compared with the HBAA dismantling system without H 2 O, the HBAA system with 60% w/v H 2 O can obviously increase the removal rates of lignin and hemicellulose, while recovering up to 99% of cellulose and significantly declining surface lignin coverage, thus enhancing the enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency. Additionally, the results of density functional theory calculations and 2D HSQC NMR analysis prove that the synergy between H 2 O and ethylene glycol can promote the esterification reaction occurrence at the α-C carbon cation in β-O-4 structure of lignin, thereby protecting the β-O-4 aromatic ether bond. Simultaneously, when the H 2 O dosage increase from 0% to 60%, the enzymatic yield increases from 84.51% to 93.74% with an enzyme load of 10 FPU/g. Based on experimental results, this study conducted a techno-economic analysis of bagasse dismantling for ethanol and co-production of lignin, achieving a minimum ethanol selling price of $\$$1.07 per kg. Here, in this study, a green and economical solution for dismantling the main components of bagasse is developed, which is important for the high-value conversion of bagasse.

Ethylene glycol↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recovery of value-added compounds through fast pyrolysis of apple pomace hydrochar

The environmental challenges associated with food production can be addressed via the thermochemical upcycling of agro-industrial biomass. Two such methods, hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) and pyrolysis, can be coupled to first reduce the water content of wet biomass wastes by producing a hydrochar (HC) via HTC and then a bio-oil via pyrolysis of the HC. However, HTC of biomass results in the formation of secondary char (SC), an amorphous tar-like mixture resulting from organic compounds released into the aqueous phase that adsorb, recondense and polymerize on the parent biomass. This study investigated how HTC temperature impacts the formation of SC from apple pomace and the SC’s subsequent impact on fast pyrolysis products. HCs were produced at temperatures of 175°C, 200°C, and 250°C. Lower HTC temperatures favor the formation of biorefinery platform chemicals such as 5-hydroxymethylfurfural and levulinic acid, while higher temperatures result in increased lignin degradation products (i.e., phenolics). HCs were subjected to fast pyrolysis before and after SC extraction in two analytical pyrolysis instruments. Fast pyrolysis of HC produced compounds similar to those found in SC, but with variations in CO and CO 2 emissions. In conclusion, the combination of SC extraction and fast pyrolysis demonstrates promise for recovering value-added compounds from agro-industrial waste biomass while retaining a solid char for fuel and carbon management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resource Portfolios

Abstract Recent water infrastructure planning models demonstrate that explicitly accounting for hydrological changes in long‐term water planning reduces costs and increases system robustness. However, current models do not consider the effects of other changes occurring in the system over long time horizons, namely technology and policy innovation. By leveraging state‐of‐the‐art dynamic control techniques, we propose a suite of tools that explicitly relate hydrologic change, technology innovation, and policy interventions to system‐level water costs. We design robust and cost‐optimal strategies for water supply expansion under hydrological variability and hundreds of plausible innovation states, for example, treatment cost and diversification improvements, deployment times, and demand reduction campaigns. Our approach circumvents the need to pre‐assign probabilities to innovation scenarios and, instead, directly calculates the effects of technology, policy, and hydrology variations on system cost and planning strategies to identify avenues of impactful innovation. These tools can support technology development hubs, urban, state, and federal water planners in anticipating cost implications of technology and policy innovation at the local level, and prioritizing high‐impact innovation goals based on quantitative targets. Results for the case study of Santa Barbara, California identify high‐value innovation attributes for the city as well as combinations of innovation attributes across technologies and policies, and quantify their potential utility cost reductions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Forecasters‐in‐the‐Loop in Real‐Time Flood Forecasting in the Age of Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) applications in hydrological forecasting are increasingly prevalent and show great potential. However, many previous studies have only evaluated performance through reanalysis or retrospective simulations compared to simplified baselines. This study provides the first assessment of ML performance against actual operational forecasting systems operated by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), which combines the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) with forecasters-in-the-loop. Results demonstrate that forecasters-in-the-loop systems consistently outperform ML models in both general forecasts and flood alerting across lead times up to 96 hr, even when ML models use observed forcings, while CNRFC operational process relies on biased weather forecasts. Our analysis reveals that forecaster expertise maintains forecast reliability despite inaccurate precipitation inputs, with human-guided systems showing superior performance degradation characteristics at extended lead times. These findings highlight the irreplaceable value of human expertise in operational forecasting and caution against overstating current ML capabilities in real-world applications.

Tran, Vinh Ngoc [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quasi‐Steady State Supersaturation: Do High Values Derived From ESCAPE Represent Real High Supersaturations and the Potential for Condensational Invigoration?

Deep convective clouds were intensively sampled during the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) with coordinated flights of the NRC Convair-580 and SPEC Learjet. A total of 219 updraft core segments were sampled over coastal Texas and Louisiana under diverse meteorological conditions. Median updraft properties included widths of ∼1 km, velocities of 4.8 m s −1 , droplet number concentrations of ∼400 cm −3 , and liquid water contents of 0.9 g m −3 . The limitations of using the quasi-steady state approximation to derive supersaturations were explored. Supersaturation (S QSS ) estimated from in situ observations under a quasi-steady state assumption averaged 0.4% but occasionally exceeded 2%, with values >1% (high supersaturations) identified as statistical outliers. Two case studies illustrated the conditions linked to high supersaturations. In a storm over the Gulf, median core S QSS reached 2.46% in the developing stage compared to 2.17% in the mature stage under similar thermodynamic conditions. In a storm over coastal Louisiana, S QSS peaked near 11% within a 13.7-m s −1 updraft, accompanied by predominantly supercooled liquid droplets at −13°C and exceptionally low diameter concentrations of 0.29 mm cm −3 . Bootstrap analysis of all sampled cores showed that high supersaturations are most probable in cold and mixed-phase regimes with moderate to strong updrafts and are strongly influenced by vertical velocity and droplet number concentrations. In conclusion, while extreme supersaturations (∼10%) were rare, their occurrence underscores the need for targeted multiplatform observations to resolve their spatiotemporal variability and assess their potential role in deep convective invigoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The value of long-duration energy storage under various grid conditions in a zero-emissions future

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is a key resource in enabling zero-emissions electricity grids but its role within different types of grids is not well understood. Using the Switch capacity expansion model, we model a zero-emissions Western Interconnect with high geographical resolution to understand the value of LDES under 39 scenarios with different generation mixes, transmission expansion, storage costs, and storage mandates. We find that a) LDES is particularly valuable in majority wind-powered regions and regions with diminishing hydropower generation, b) seasonal operation of storage becomes cost-effective if storage capital costs fall below US$\$$5 kWh −1 , and c) mandating the installation of enough LDES to enable year-long storage cycles would reduce electricity prices during times of high demand by over 70%. Given the asset and resource diversity of the Western Interconnect, our results can provide grid planners in many regions with guidance on how LDES impacts and is impacted by energy storage mandates, investments in LDES research and development, and generation mix and transmission expansion decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially distributed atmospheric boundary layer properties in Houston – A value-added observational dataset

Abstract In 2022, Houston, TX became a nexus for field campaigns aiming to further our understanding of the feedbacks between convective clouds, aerosols and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) properties. Houston’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay motivated the collection of spatially distributed observations to disentangle coastal and urban processes. This paper presents a value-added ABL dataset derived from observations collected by eight research teams over 46 days between 2 June - 18 September 2022. The dataset spans 14 sites distributed within a ~80-km radius around Houston. Measurements from three types of instruments are analyzed to objectively provide estimates of nine ABL parameters, both thermodynamic (potential temperature, and relative humidity profiles and thermodynamic ABL depth) and dynamic (horizontal wind speed and direction, mean vertical velocity, updraft and downdraft speed profiles, and dynamical ABL depth). Contextual information about cloud occurrence is also provided. The dataset is prepared on a uniform time-height grid of 1 h and 30 m resolution to facilitate its use as a benchmark for forthcoming numerical simulations and the fundamental study of atmospheric processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Density limit in peeling-limited pedestals at and above the Greenwald value in DIII-D high poloidal beta plasmas

High pressure, peeling limited pedestals with pedestal normalized beta β N,ped >2 and pedestal top density n ped at or above the Greenwald density nG have been achieved in DIII-D high poloidal beta plasmas, with high global normalized beta β N >3 and energy confinement H 98 ~1.2-1.7. Higher β N allows higher pedestal density above the Greenwald value and higher pedestal pressure, even with a low injected torque. MHD modeling confirms that the experimental profiles lie near the peeling-mode unstable boundary with high normalized pressure gradient βMHD and high edge current density. Experimental analysis and stability calculations indicate that the high poloidal beta with strong Shafranov shift, high βMHD and weak/negative magnetic shear improves the pedestal stability by decoupling the peeling and ballooning modes and stabilizing the ballooning modes, thus facilitating access to the second stable region of peeling-ballooning mode. The access to the second stable peeling-ballooning stability region opens Super-H-like channels without extremely strong shaping or strong torque injection. The high-pressure peeling pedestal allows the pedestal density to go beyond the Greenwald limit with strong ExB shear maintained: pedestal pressure increases with pedestal density even when n ped >n G , until reaching the ideal MHD instability boundary, where giant ELMs occur. The giant ELMs are dominated by a strong n=1 component and cause a large reduction of the edge pressure, but a negligible change of the core pressure, consistent with kink/peeling-mode induced instability. The pedestal recovers from the collapse and typically sustains a high baseline density, around the Greenwald limit, during the whole discharge duration. Experiments also found that internal transport barriers and n ped ~0.9nG, peeling limited pedestals could be simultaneously achieved in high β N plasmas, while an internal feedback between ITB strength and pedestal performance is found.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Time Correlations from Steady-State Expectation Values

Recovering properties of correlation functions is typically challenging. On the one hand, experimentally, it requires measurements with a temporal resolution finer than the system’s dynamics. On the other hand, analytical or numerical analysis requires solving the system evolution. Here, we use recent results of quantum metrology with continuous measurements to derive general lower bounds on the relaxation and second-order correlation times that are both easy to calculate and measure. These bounds are based solely on steady-state expectation values and their derivatives with respect to a system parameter, and can be readily extended to the autocorrelation of arbitrary observables. We validate our method on two examples of critical quantum systems: a critical driven-dissipative resonator, where the bound matches analytical results for the dynamics, and the infinite-range Ising model, where only the steady state is solvable, and thus the bound provides information beyond the reach of existing analytical approaches. Our results can be applied to the experimental characterization of ultrafast systems and to the theoretical analysis of many-body models whose dynamics are hard to compute.

Górecki, Wojciech [INFN, Pavia] (ORCID:00000001991↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single-valued representation of unpolarized and polarized semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering at next-to-next-to-leading order

We revisit the recently published analytic results for unpolarized and polarized semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering (SIDIS) at next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) in quantum chromodynamics (QCD). These expressions for the hard scattering coefficients contain case distinctions in the kinematic (𝑥,𝑧)-plane, splitting the analytic result into four regions. By reexpressing the coefficient functions in terms of single-valued polylogarithms, we remove these case distinctions and can present a unified result valid across the entire kinematic range of SIDIS. This reduces the length of the overall expressions by 30% to 60%.

Deep inelastic scattering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Grid-interactive Efficient Building Designs with Stacked Value Streams

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are those characterized by the combination of energy efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communications to not only deliver greater affordability and comfort to buildings, but also help utilities manage grid operations and lower system costs. This paper presents an innovative techno-economic assessment framework to effectively examine different GEB design options, explore various use cases, define technically achievable benefits, and thereby assist in informed decision-making. In particular, building load flexibility, thermal storage, and battery energy storage are considered. Advanced optimal dispatch problem is formulated to maximize the stacked value streams from multiple, competing use cases, subject to the physical capabilities and operational flexibility associated with different designs and configurations. Comprehensive case studies were performed for a real-world building to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different GEB designs and offer in-depth insights. It was found that the proposed assessment method could effectively capture the costs and benefits linked to each GEB design option. Furthermore, the study revealed that outage mitigation and demand response are the two most significant sources of benefits for GEBs.

Ma, Xu↗

DOE OSTI2024

Defining blood hematology reference values in female pig-tailed macaques ( Macaca nemestrina ) using the Isolation Forest algorithm

Background: Pig-tailed macaques (PTMs) are commonly used as preclinical models to assess antiretroviral drugs for HIV prevention research. Drug toxicities and disease pathologies are often preceded by changes in blood hematology. To better assess the safety profile of pharmaceuticals, we defined normal ranges of hematological values in PTMs using an Isolation Forest (iForest) algorithm. Methods: Eighteen female PTMs were evaluated. Blood was collected 1–24 times per animal for a total of 159 samples. Complete blood counts were performed, and iForest was used to analyze the hematology data to detect outliers. Results: Median, IQR, and ranges were calculated for 13 hematology parameters. From all samples, 22 outliers were detected. These outliers were excluded from the reference index. Conclusions: Using iForest, we defined a normal range for hematology parameters in female PTMs. This reference index can be a valuable tool for future studies evaluating drug toxicities in PTMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗