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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year’ Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change

African easterly waves significantly influence regional hydroclimate, making it crucial to understand how global warming will impact their activity. Here, we investigate future changes in wave activity and assess the underlying mechanisms using an ensemble of Earth system models. We find a robust increase in wave activity over the Sahel–Sahara region by the end of the 21st century under two emission scenarios. This intensification is linked to increased baroclinicity associated with a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinea Coast and the Sahara. Our results also indicate that low-level warming enhances the waves by reinforcing monsoon flow, leading to increased convergence and vertical motion along the intertropical discontinuity. These energetic alterations significantly modify the conditions that currently produce these waves. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in wave activity could impact the transport of Saharan dust and mesoscale convective activity over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Galactic echoes

Gaia has revealed a variety of substructures in the phase space of stars in the Solar neighbourhood, including the vertical ‘Snail’ $(z, v_z)$ in space. Such substructures are often interpreted as the incompletely phase-mixed response of the disc stars to a single perturbation, such as an impulsive encounter with a satellite galaxy. In this paper, we consider the possibility that such structures contain manifestations of phase-space echoes. First established in plasma physics in the 1960s, echoes arise when a collisionless system is perturbed twice: the macroscopic responses to both perturbations mix to small scales in phase space, whereupon they couple non-linearly, producing a third macroscopic ‘echo’ response without the need for a third perturbation. We derive the galactic analogue of the plasma echo theory using angle-action variables and apply it to a one-dimensional model of vertical motion in the Milky Way. We verify the predicted echo behaviour using idealized test particle simulations, both with and without the inclusion of diffusion through orbital scattering off molecular clouds. While we conclude that the Gaia Snail itself is unlikely a (pure) echo effect, the basic physics we uncover is sufficiently generic that we expect phase-space echoes to be common in disc galaxies.

Galaxy: evolution↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss

The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Strong Impact of Weak Horizontal Convergence on Continental Shallow Convection

Idealized large-eddy simulation (LES) is a basic tool for studying three-dimensional turbulence in the planetary boundary layer. LES is capable of providing benchmark solutions for parameterization development efforts. However, real small-scale atmospheric flows develop in heterogeneous and transient environments with locally varying vertical motions inherent to open multiscale interactive dynamical systems. These variations are often too subtle to detect them by state-of-the-art remote and in situ measurements, and are typically excluded from idealized simulations. The present study addresses the impact of weak [i.e., O(10-6) s-1] short-lived low-level large-scale convergence/divergence perturbations on continental shallow convection. The results show a strong response of shallow nonprecipitating convection to the applied weak large-scale dynamical forcing. Evolutions of CAPE, mean liquid water path, and cloud-top heights are significantly affected by the imposed convergence/divergence. In contrast, evolving cloud-base properties, such as the area coverage and mass flux, are only weakly affected. To contrast those impacts with microphysical sensitivity, the baseline simulations are perturbed assuming different observationally based cloud droplet number concentrations and thus different rainfall. For the tested range of microphysical perturbations, the imposed convergence/divergence provides significantly larger impact than changes in the cloud microphysics. Simulation results presented here provide a stringent test for convection parameterizations, especially important for large-scale models progressing toward resolving some nonhydrostatic effects.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Growth of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Observations and a Seasonal Convection-Permitting Simulation over Argentina

Abstract A 6.5-month, convection-permitting simulation is conducted over Argentina covering the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) field campaign and is compared with observations to evaluate mesoscale convective system (MCS) growth prediction. Observed and simulated MCSs are consistently identified, tracked, and separated into growth, mature, and decay stages using top-of-the-atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface rainfall. Simulated MCS number, lifetime, seasonal and diurnal cycles, and various cloud-shield characteristics including growth rate are similar to those observed. However, the simulation produces smaller rainfall areas, greater proportions of heavy rainfall, and faster system propagations. Rainfall area is significantly underestimated for long-lived MCSs but not for shorter-lived MCSs, and rain rates are always overestimated. These differences result from a combination of model and satellite retrieval biases, in which simulated MCS rain rates are shifted from light to heavy, while satellite-retrieved rainfall is too frequent relative to rain gauge estimates. However, the simulation reproduces satellite-retrieved MCS cloud-shield evolution well, supporting its usage to examine environmental controls on MCS growth. MCS initiation locations are associated with removal of convective inhibition more than maximized low-level moisture convergence or instability. Rapid growth is associated with a stronger upper-level jet (ULJ) and a deeper northwestern Argentinean low that causes a stronger northerly low-level jet (LLJ), increasing heat and moisture fluxes, low-level vertical wind shear, baroclinicity, and instability. Sustained growth corresponds to similar LLJ, baroclinicity, and instability conditions but is less sensitive to the ULJ, large-scale vertical motion, or low-level shear. Growth sustenance controls MCS maximum extent more than growth rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-Cloud Atmospheric Ingredients for Deep Convection Initiation

A lack of routine environmental observations located near deepening cumulus congestus clouds limits verification of important theorized and simulated updraft–environment interaction processes occurring during deep convection initiation (CI). We analyze radiosonde profiles collected during several hundred CI events near a mountain range in central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign. Statistical analyses illustrate environmental conditions supporting radar-observed CI outcomes that span a spectrum of convective cell depths, widths, and durations, as well as events lacking precipitating convection. Tested environmental factors include a large variety of sounding-derived measurements of CAPE, CIN, moisture, terrain-relative winds, vertical shear, and lifted parcel properties, with supplemental model reanalysis of background larger-scale vertical motion. CAPE and CIN metrics do not consistently differentiate CI success from failure. Only a few environmental factors contain consistent monotonic relationships among the spectrum of cloud depths achieved during CI: (i) the depth and strength of background ascent, and (ii) the component of low-level flow oriented parallel to the ridgeline. These metrics suggest that the ability of the surrounding flow to lift parcels to their LFC and terrain-modified flow are consistently relevant processes for CI. Low- to midlevel relative humidity strongly discriminated between CI and non-CI events, likely reflecting entrainment-driven dilution processes. However, we could not confidently conclude that relative humidity similarly discriminated robust from marginal CI events. Circumstantial evidence was found linking cell width, an important cloud property governing the probability of CI, to LCL height, boundary layer depth, depth and magnitude of the CIN layer, and ambient wind shear.

Storm environments↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electromechanics of lipid-modulated gating of potassium channels

Experimental studies reveal that the anionic lipid phosphatidic acid (POPA), non-phospholipid cholesterol, and cationic lipid DOTAP inhibit the gating of voltage-sensitive potassium (Kv) channels. In this work, we develop a continuum electromechanical model to investigate the interaction of these lipids with the ion channel. Our model suggests that: (i) POPA lipids may restrict the vertical motion of the voltage-sensor domain through direct electrostatic interactions; (ii) cholesterol may oppose the radial motion of the pore domain of the channel by increasing the mechanical rigidity of the membrane; and (iii) DOTAP can reduce the effect of electrostatic forces by regulating the dielectric constant at the channel–lipid interface. The electromechanical model predictions for the three lipid types match well with the experimental observations and provide mechanistic insights into lipid-dependent gating of Kv channels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of High Resolution Atmospheric and Dispersion Simulations

Weather models typically operate on averages of 1 km or more. This averages out fine scale turbulence. This results in smooth laminar flows and rapid vertical motions are usually averaged out. In this study, those fine scaled features were simulated for a 2013 field study of transport and diffusion of a tracer gas. Parameterized subgrid turbulence was required to produce dilution representative of observations. Despite this, the simulation with the finest grid and contained parameterized subgrid turbulence produced dilution that was consistent with observations.

THOMAS, ANDREW↗
DOE OSTI2024

Horn Location Sensors (HLS) for LBNF

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) will deliver the world's most powerful muon neutrino beam to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), initially operating at 1.2 MW and upgradeable to 2.4 MW. Ensuring the accurate direction of this beam is critical for DUNE's precision goals. This talk introduces the Horn Location Sensors (HLS) system, designed to provide precise, relative measurements of the focusing horns, targets, and beam position monitors in the neutrino beamline. The HLS system employs high-precision FSI-based hydrostatic leveling sensors to track vertical motion and tilt, achieving precision on the order of 0.1 mm. Built for minimal maintenance in radioactive environments, the HLS system ensures precise alignment of beamline components during high-power operations. This system is essential for maintaining beam accuracy and enhancing DUNE's scientific performance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation–Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO 2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO 2 . The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anisotropic Turbulent Flows Observed in Above-the-loop-top Regions during Solar Flares

Abstract Solar flare above-the-loop-top (ALT) regions are vital for understanding solar eruptions and fundamental processes in plasma physics. Recent advances in three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations have revealed unprecedented details on turbulent flows and MHD instabilities in flare ALT regions. Here, for the first time, we examine the observable anisotropic properties of turbulent flows in ALT by applying a flow-tracking algorithm on narrow-band extreme-ultraviolet images that are observed from the face-on viewing perspective. First, the results quantitatively confirm the previous observation that vertical motions dominate and that the anisotropic flows are widely distributed in the entire ALT region with the contribution from both upflows and downflows. Second, the anisotropy shows height-dependent features, with the most substantial anisotropy appearing at a certain middle height in ALT, which agrees well with the MHD modeling results where turbulent flows are caused by Rayleigh–Taylor-type instabilities in the ALT region. Finally, our finding suggests that supra-arcade downflows (SADs), the most prominently visible dynamical structures in ALT regions, are only one aspect of turbulent flows. Among these turbulent flows, we also report the antisunward-moving underdense flows that might develop due to MHD instabilities, as suggested by previous 3D flare models. Our results indicate that the entire flare fan displays group behavior of turbulent flows where the observational bright spikes and relatively dark SADs exhibit similar anisotropic characteristics.

Xie, Xiaoyan (ORCID:0009000705827807)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A meteorological overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the southeastern Atlantic during 2016–2018: Part 1 – Climatology

In 2016–2018, the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) project undertook 3-month-long deployments to the southeastern (SE) Atlantic Ocean using research aircraft to better understand the impact of biomass burning (BB) aerosol transport to the SE Atlantic Ocean on climate. In this (part 1 of the meteorological overview) paper, the climatological features at monthly timescales are investigated. The southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S), defined as the zonal easterlies over 600-700 hPa exceeding 6 m s-1 around 5-15°S, is a characteristic feature of the mid-level circulation over southern Africa that was also during the deployment months of August 2017, September 2016, and October 2018. Climatologically, the AEJ-S develops at lower altitudes (~3 km; 700 hPa) between 5-10° S in August, while it develops at around 4 km (~600 hPa) and further south (5-15 °S) in September and October, largely driven by the strong sensible heating over the African plateau. Notable meteorological anomalous characteristics during the 3 deployment months, compared to climatology (2000-2018), include the following: (1) during August 2017, the AEJ-S was weaker than the climatological mean, with an additional anomalous upper-level jet aloft (~6 km) around 10 °S. August 2017 was also drier over the SE Atlantic at 600-700 hPa than climatology, with a stronger Benguela low-level jet (LLJ) at 925-950 hPa along the Namibian coast of the SE Atlantic. Consistent with this, the southern Atlantic anticyclone was also stronger and closer to the coast than the August climatological mean. (2) During September 2016, the AEJ-S intensity was similar to the climatological mean, although the heat low and vertical motion over the land was slightly stronger compared to the September climatology. The LLJ and the large-scale southern Atlantic anticyclone were stronger than the climatological mean. (3) During October 2018, the AEJ-S was slightly weaker compared to the climatological mean, as was the LLJ and the southern Atlantic anticyclone. October 2018 was wetter over the Benguela coastal region at 600 hPa than the climatological mean. During all the deployment months, the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the SE Atlantic were warmer than the climatological means, but the monthly mean low cloud fraction was only noticeably reduced in August 2017. A weak August 2017 AEJ-S can explain low offshore black carbon (BC) mixing ratios within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, although the BC peak altitude, at 2-3 km, is below that of the AEJ-S. The upper-level wave disturbance and the associated anomalous circulation also explain the weakening of AEJ-S through the reduction of the strength of the heat low over the land during August 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

An investigation of relationships between meso- and synoptic-scale phenomena

Methods based on the vorticity equation, the adiabatic method, the curvature of the vertical wind profile, and the structure of synoptic waves are used to determine areas of positive vertical motion in the mid-troposphere for a period in each season. Parameters indicative of low-level moisture and conditional instability are areas in which mesoscale systems may be present. The best association between mesoscale and synoptic-scale phenomena was found for a period during December when synoptic-scale systems were well developed. A good association between meso- and synoptic-scale events also was found for a period during March, while the poorest association was found for a June period. Daytime surface heating apparently is an important factor in the formation of mesoscale systems during the summer. It is concluded that the formation of mesoscale phenomena may be determined essentially from synoptic-scale conditions during winter, late fall, and early spring.

Scoggins, J. R.↗