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Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water year 2011

This report examines the financial implications of experimental flows conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) in water year 2011. It is the third report in a series examining financial implications of experimental flows conducted since the Record of Decision (ROD) was adopted in February 1997 (Reclamation 1996). A report released in January 2011 examined water years 1997 to 2005 (Veselka et al. 2011), and a report released in August 2011 examined water years 2006 to 2010 (Poch et al. 2011). An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes both that operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and the experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a 'without experiments' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP powerplant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental releases, the GTMax model was also used to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions that were made to criteria to accommodate the experimental releases, and Western operating practices. Experimental releases conducted in water year 2011 resulted only in financial costs; the total cost of all experimental releases was about $\$$622,000.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Temporal trends (1989–2011) in levels of mercury and other heavy metals in feathers of fledgling great egrets nesting in Barnegat Bay, NJ

There is an abundance of data for levels of metals from a range of species, but relatively few long-term time series from the same location. In this paper I examine the levels of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese, mercury and selenium in feathers from fledgling great egrets (Ardea alba) collected at nesting colonies in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey from 1989 to 2011. The primary objectives were to test the null hypotheses that (1) There were no temporal differences in metal levels in feathers of fledgling great egrets, and (2) Great egrets nesting in different areas of Barnegat Bay (New Jersey) did not differ in metal levels. There were significant yearly variations in levels of all heavy metals in feathers of fledgling great egret, but levels decreased significantly from 1989 to 2011 only for lead (1470 ppb to 54.3 ppb), cadmium (277 ppb to 30.5 ppb), and manganese (only since 1996; 2669 ppb to 329 ppb)). Although mercury levels decreased from 2003–2008 (6430 ppb to 1042 ppb), there was no pattern before 2003, and levels increased after 2008 to 2610 ppb in 2011. Lead, cadmium, chromium, manganese and mercury were higher in feathers from great egrets nesting in the northern part of the bay, and selenium was highest in feathers from mid-bay. The lack of a temporal decline in mercury levels in feathers of great egrets is cause for concern, since the high levels in feathers from some years (means as high as 6430 ppb) are in the range associated with adverse effects (5000 ppb for feathers). -- Highlights: ► Metals were monitored in feathers of great egrets from Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. ► Levels of cadmium and lead decreased significantly from 1989–2011. ► Mercury levels in feathers from great egrets did not decline from 1989–2011. ► Metal levels were generally higher in great egrets and black-crowned night heron feathers than in snowy egrets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report on the 2011 Critical Assessment of Function Annotation (CAFA) meeting

The Critical Assessment of Function Annotation meeting was held July 14-15, 2011 at the Austria Conference Center in Vienna, Austria. There were 73 registered delegates at the meeting. We thank the DOE for this award. It helped us organize and support a scientific meeting AFP 2011 as a special interest group (SIG) meeting associated with the ISMB 2011 conference. The conference was held in Vienna, Austria, in July 2011. The AFP SIG was held on July 15-16, 2011 (immediately preceding the conference). The meeting consisted of two components, the first being a series of talks (invited and contributed) and discussion sections dedicated to protein function research, with an emphasis on the theory and practice of computational methods utilized in functional annotation. The second component provided a large-scale assessment of computational methods through participation in the Critical Assessment of Functional Annotation (CAFA). The meeting was exciting and, based on feedback, quite successful. There were 73 registered participants. The schedule was only slightly different from the one proposed, due to two cancellations. Dr. Olga Troyanskaya has canceled and we invited Dr. David Jones instead. Similarly, instead of Dr. Richard Roberts, Dr. Simon Kasif gave a closing keynote. The remaining invited speakers were Janet Thornton (EBI) and Amos Bairoch (University of Geneva).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Contributions of Chemistry and Transport to Low Arctic Ozone in March 2011 Derived from Aura MLS Observations

Stratospheric and total columns of Arctic O3 (63-90 N) in late March 2011 averaged 320 and 349 DU, respectively. These values are 74 DU lower than averages for the previous 6 years. We use Aura MLS O3 observations to quantify the roles of chemistry and transport and find there are two major reasons for low O3 in March 2011: heterogeneous chemical loss and a late final warming that delayed the resupply of O3 until April. Daily vortex-averaged partial columns in the lowermost stratosphere (p greater than 133 hPa) and middle stratosphere (p less than 29 hPa) are unaffected by local heterogeneous chemistry and show a near total lack of transport into the vortex between late January and late March, contributing to the observed low column. The lower stratospheric (LS) column (133-29 hPa) is affected by both heterogeneous chemistry and transport. Low interannual variability of Aura MLS 0 3 columns and temperature inside the Arctic vortex (2004-2011) shows that the transport contribution to vortex O3 in fall and early winter is nearly the same each year. The descent of MLS N2O vortex profiles in 2011 provides an estimate of O3 transported into the LS column during late winter. By quantifying the role of transport we determine that PSC-driven chemical loss causes 80 (plus or minus 10) DU of vortex-averaged O3 loss by late March 2011. Without heterogeneous chemical loss, March 2011 vortex O3 would have been ~40 DU lower than normal due to the late final warming and resupply of O3 which did not occur until April.

Strahan, S. E.↗

GROWTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL CRITICALITY SAFETY AND REACTOR PHYSICS BENCHMARK EXPERIMENT EVALUATION PROJECTS SINCE ICNC 2011

Since the International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC) 2011, the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) and the International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) have continued to expand their efforts. Twenty countries have continued to participate in the ICSBEP since 2011; participating countries in the IRPhEP have grown from 16 in 2011 to 20 in 2015. Since ICNC 2011, the contents of the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments have increased from 533 evaluations (approximately 58,000 pages), containing benchmark specifications for 4,552 critical or subcritical configurations to 561 evaluations (approximately 67,000 pages), containing benchmark specifications for 4,839 critical or subcritical configurations in the 2014 Edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. While the current number of criticality-alarm-placement/shielding benchmark configurations has remained at 24, the number of fundamental physics measurements relevant to criticality safety applications has increased from 200 to 207. Since ICNC 2011, the contents of the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments have increased from 53 experimental series that were performed at 31 different reactor facilities to 143 experimental series that were performed at 50 different reactor facilities in the 2015 Edition of the IRPhEP Handbook. The status of the ICSBEP and the IRPhEP is discussed and benchmarks that have been more recently added to the handbooks are highlighted.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Growth of the international criticality safety and reactor physics Benchmark experiment evaluation projects since ICNC 2011 - 14102

Since the International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC) 2011, the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) and the International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) have continued to expand their efforts. Twenty countries have continued to participate in the ICSBEP since 2011; participating countries in the IRPhEP have grown from 16 in 2011 to 20 in 2015. Since ICNC 2011, the contents of the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments have increased from 533 evaluations (approximately 58,000 pages), containing benchmark specifications for 4,552 critical or subcritical configurations to 561 evaluations (approximately 67,000 pages), containing benchmark specifications for 4,839 critical or subcritical configurations in the 2014 Edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. While the current number of criticality-alarm-placement/shielding benchmark configurations has remained at 24, the number of fundamental physics measurements relevant to criticality safety applications has increased from 200 to 207. Since ICNC 2011, the contents of the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments have increased from 53 experimental series that were performed at 31 different reactor facilities to 143 experimental series that were performed at 50 different reactor facilities in the 2015 Edition of the IRPhEP Handbook. The status of the ICSBEP and the IRPhEP is discussed and benchmarks that have been more recently added to the handbooks are highlighted. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Trends in the Quality of Treatment for Patients With Intact Cervical Cancer in the United States, 1999 Through 2011

Purpose: High-quality treatment for intact cervical cancer requires external radiation therapy, brachytherapy, and chemotherapy, carefully sequenced and completed without delays. We sought to determine how frequently current treatment meets quality benchmarks and whether new technologies have influenced patterns of care. Methods and Materials: By searching diagnosis and procedure claims in MarketScan, an employment-based health care claims database, we identified 1508 patients with nonmetastatic, intact cervical cancer treated from 1999 to 2011, who were <65 years of age and received >10 fractions of radiation. Treatments received were identified using procedure codes and compared with 3 quality benchmarks: receipt of brachytherapy, receipt of chemotherapy, and radiation treatment duration not exceeding 63 days. The Cochran-Armitage test was used to evaluate temporal trends. Results: Seventy-eight percent of patients (n=1182) received brachytherapy, with brachytherapy receipt stable over time (Cochran-Armitage P{sub trend}=.15). Among patients who received brachytherapy, 66% had high–dose rate and 34% had low–dose rate treatment, although use of high–dose rate brachytherapy steadily increased to 75% by 2011 (P{sub trend}<.001). Eighteen percent of patients (n=278) received intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), and IMRT receipt increased to 37% by 2011 (P{sub trend}<.001). Only 2.5% of patients (n=38) received IMRT in the setting of brachytherapy omission. Overall, 79% of patients (n=1185) received chemotherapy, and chemotherapy receipt increased to 84% by 2011 (P{sub trend}<.001). Median radiation treatment duration was 56 days (interquartile range, 47-65 days); however, duration exceeded 63 days in 36% of patients (n=543). Although 98% of patients received at least 1 benchmark treatment, only 44% received treatment that met all 3 benchmarks. With more stringent indicators (brachytherapy, ≥4 chemotherapy cycles, and duration not exceeding 56 days), only 25% of patients received treatment that met all benchmarks. Conclusion: In this cohort, most cervical cancer patients received treatment that did not comply with all 3 benchmarks for quality treatment. In contrast to increasing receipt of newer radiation technologies, there was little improvement in receipt of essential treatment benchmarks.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The outburst of the blazar S4 0954+658 in 2011 March-April

We present the results of optical (R-band) photometric and polarimetric monitoring and Very Long Baseline Array imaging of the blazar S4 0954+658, along with Fermi γ-ray data during a multi-waveband outburst in 2011 March-April. After a faint state with a brightness level R ∼ 17.6 mag registered in the first half of 2011 January, the optical brightness of the source started to rise and reached ∼14.8 mag during the middle of March, showing flare-like behavior. The most spectacular case of intranight variability was observed during the night of 2011 March 9, when the blazar brightened by ∼0.7 mag within 7 hr. During the rise of the flux, the position angle of the optical polarization rotated smoothly over more than 300°. At the same time, within 1σ uncertainty, a new superluminal knot appeared with an apparent speed of 19.0 ± 0.3c. We have very strong evidence that this knot is associated with the multi-waveband outburst in 2011 March-April. We also analyze the multi-frequency behavior of S4 0954+658 during a number of minor outbursts from 2008 August to 2012 April. We find some evidence of connections between at least two additional superluminal ejecta and near-simultaneous optical flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE 2011 PERIASTRON PASSAGE OF THE Be BINARY {delta} Scorpii

We describe the results of the world-wide observing campaign of the highly eccentric Be binary system {delta} Scorpii 2011 periastron passage which involved professional and amateur astronomers. Our spectroscopic observations provided a precise measurement of the system orbital period at 10.8092 {+-} 0.0005 yr. Fitting of the He II 4686 A line radial velocity curve determined the periastron passage time on 2011 July 3, UT 9:20 with a 0.9-day uncertainty. Both these results are in a very good agreement with recent findings from interferometry. We also derived new evolutionary masses of the binary components (13 and 8.2 M{sub Sun }) and a new distance of 136 pc from the Sun, consistent with the HIPPARCOS parallax. The radial velocity and profile variations observed in the H{alpha} line near the 2011 periastron reflected the interaction of the secondary component and the circumstellar disk around the primary component. Using these data, we estimated a disk radius of 150 R{sub Sun }. Our analysis of the radial velocity variations measured during the periastron passage time in 2000 and 2011 along with those measured during the 20th century, the high eccentricity of the system, and the presence of a bow shock-like structure around it suggest that {delta} Sco might be a runaway triple system. The third component should be external to the known binary and move on an elliptical orbit that is tilted by at least 40 Degree-Sign with respect to the binary orbital plane for such a system to be stable and responsible for the observed long-term radial velocity variations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID 2011 MD

We report on observations of near-Earth asteroid 2011 MD with the Spitzer Space Telescope. We have spent 19.9 hr of observing time with channel 2 (4.5 μm) of the Infrared Array Camera and detected the target within the 2σ positional uncertainty ellipse. Using an asteroid thermophysical model and a model of nongravitational forces acting upon the object, we constrain the physical properties of 2011 MD, based on the measured flux density and available astrometry data. We estimate 2011 MD to be (6{sub −2}{sup +4}) m in diameter with a geometric albedo of 0.3{sub −0.2}{sup +0.4} (uncertainties are 1σ). We find the asteroid's most probable bulk density to be (1.1{sub −0.5}{sup +0.7}) g cm{sup –3}, which implies a total mass of (50-350) t and a macroporosity of ≥65%, assuming a material bulk density typical of non-primitive meteorite materials. A high degree of macroporosity suggests that 2011 MD is a rubble-pile asteroid, the rotation of which is more likely to be retrograde than prograde.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radio and γ-ray follow-up of the exceptionally high-activity state of PKS 1510-089 in 2011

In this paper, we investigate the radio and γ-ray variability of the flat spectrum radio quasar PKS 1510-089 in the time range between 2010 November and 2012 January. In this period the source showed an intense activity, with two major γ-ray flares detected in 2011 July and October. During the latter episode both the γ-ray and the radio flux density reached their historical peak. Multiwavelength analysis shows a rotation of about 380° of the optical polarization angle close in time with the rapid and strong γ-ray flare in 2011 July. An enhancement of the optical emission and an increase of the fractional polarization both in the optical and in radio bands are observed about three weeks later, close in time with another γ-ray outburst. On the other hand, after 2011 September a huge radio outburst has been detected, first in the millimetre regime followed with some time delay at centimetre down to decimetre wavelengths. This radio flare is characterized by a rising and a decaying stage, in agreement with the formation of a shock and its evolution, as a consequence of expansion and radiative cooling. Lastly, if the γ-ray flare observed in 2011 October is related to this radio outburst, then this strongly indicates that the region responsible for the γ-ray variability is not within the broad line, but a few parsecs downstream along the jet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Genomic Comparison of Escherichia coli O104:H4 Isolates from 2009 and 2011 Reveals Plasmid, and Prophage Heterogeneity, Including Shiga Toxin Encoding Phage stx2

In May of 2011, an enteroaggregative Escherichia coli O104:H4 strain that had acquired a Shiga toxin 2-converting phage caused a large outbreak of bloody diarrhea in Europe which was notable for its high prevalence of hemolytic uremic syndrome cases. Several studies have described the genomic inventory and phylogenies of strains associated with the outbreak and a collection of historical E. coli O104:H4 isolates using draft genome assemblies. We present the complete, closed genome sequences of an isolate from the 2011 outbreak (2011C–3493) and two isolates from cases of bloody diarrhea that occurred in the Republic of Georgia in 2009 (2009EL–2050 and 2009EL–2071). Comparative genome analysis indicates that, while the Georgian strains are the nearest neighbors to the 2011 outbreak isolates sequenced to date, structural and nucleotide-level differences are evident in the Stx2 phage genomes, the mer/tet antibiotic resistance island, and in the prophage and plasmid profiles of the strains, including a previously undescribed plasmid with homology to the pMT virulence plasmid of Yersinia pestis. In addition, multiphenotype analysis showed that 2009EL–2071 possessed higher resistance to polymyxin and membrane-disrupting agents. Finally, we show evidence by electron microscopy of the presence of a common phage morphotype among the European and Georgian strains and a second phage morphotype among the Georgian strains. The presence of at least two stx2 phage genotypes in host genetic backgrounds that may derive from a recent common ancestor of the 2011 outbreak isolates indicates that the emergence of stx2 phage-containing E. coli O104:H4 strains probably occurred more than once, or that the current outbreak isolates may be the result of a recent transfer of a new stx2 phage element into a pre-existing stx2-positive genetic background.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hydroacoustic Evaluation of Juvenile Salmonid Passage and Distribution at Detroit Dam, 2011

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory evaluated juvenile salmonid passage and distribution at Detroit Dam (DET) on the North Santiam River, Oregon for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to provide data to support decisions on long-term measures to enhance downstream passage at DET and others dams in USACE’s Willamette Valley Project. This study was conducted in response to regulatory requirements necessitated by the listing of Upper Willamette River Spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Upper Willamette River steelhead (O. mykiss) as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The goal of the study was to provide information of juvenile salmonid passage and distribution at DET from February 2011 through February 2012. The results of the hydroacoustic study provide new and, in some cases, first-ever data on passage estimates, run timing, distributions, and relationships between fish passage and environmental variables at the dam. This information will inform management decisions on the design and development of surface passage and collection devices to help restore Chinook salmon populations in the North Santiam River watershed above DET. During the entire study period, an estimated total of 182,526 smolt-size fish (±4,660 fish, 95% CI) passed through turbine penstock intakes. Run timing peaked in winter and early spring months. Passage rates were highest during late fall, winter and early spring months and low during summer. Horizontal distribution for hours when both turbine units were operated simultaneously indicated Unit 2 passed almost twice as much fish as Unit 1. Diel distribution for smolt-size fish during the study period was fairly uniform, indicating fish were passing the turbines at all times of the day. A total of 5,083 smolt-size fish (± 312 fish, 95% CI) were estimated passed via the spillway when it was open between June 23 and September 27, 2011. Daily passage was low at the spillway during the June-August period, and increased somewhat in September 2011. When the spillway was operated simultaneously with the turbines, spillway efficiency (efficiency is estimated as spillway passage divided by total project passage) was 0.72 and effectiveness (fish:flow ratio—proportion fish passage at a route (e.g., spillway) divided by proportion water through that route out of the total project) was 2.69. That is, when the spillway was open, 72% of the fish passing the dam used the spillway and 28% passed into the turbine penstocks. Diel distribution for smolt-size fish at the spillway shows a distinct peak in passage between mid-morning and mid-afternoon and low passage at night. We estimated that 23,339 smolt-size fish (± 572 fish, 95% CI) passed via the Regulating Outlet (RO) when it was open from October 29 through November 12, 2011, January 2-6, and January 20 through February 3, 2012. During the October–November period, RO passage peaked at 1,086 fish on November 5, with a second peak on November 7 (1,075 fish). When the RO was operated simultaneously with the turbines, RO efficiency was 0.33 and effectiveness was 0.89. In multiple regression analyses, a relatively parsimonious model was selected that predicted the observed fish passage data well. The best model included forebay temperature at depth, forebay elevation, total discharge, hours of daylight, and the operation period. The vertical distribution of fish in the forebay near the face of the dam where the transducers sampled showed fish were generally distributed throughout the water column during all four operational periods. During the refill and full pool periods, vertical distribution was bi-modal with surface-layer and mid-water modes. Patterns for day and night distributions were variable. Fish were distributed above and below the thermocline when it was present (full pool and drawdown periods).

Hydroacoustics↗

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Evaluation of NASA SPoRT's Pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper Products in the 2011 Spring Program

NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a contributing partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) preparing forecasters to understand and utilize the unique products that will be available in the GOES-R era. This presentation emphasizes SPoRT s actions to prepare the end user community for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This preparation is a collaborative effort with SPoRT's National Weather Service partners, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), and the Hazardous Weather Testbed s Spring Program. SPoRT continues to use its effective paradigm of matching capabilities to forecast problems through collaborations with our end users and working with the developers at NSSL to create effective evaluations and visualizations. Furthermore, SPoRT continues to develop software plug-ins so that these products will be available to forecasters in their own decision support system, AWIPS and eventually AWIPS II. In 2009, the SPoRT program developed the original pseudo geostationary lightning mapper (PGLM) flash extent product to demonstrate what forecasters may see with GLM. The PGLM replaced the previous GLM product and serves as a stepping-stone until the AWG s official GLM proxy is ready. The PGLM algorithm is simple and can be applied to any ground-based total lightning network. For 2011, the PGLM used observations from four ground-based networks (North Alabama, Kennedy Space Center, Oklahoma, and Washington D.C.). While the PGLM is not a true proxy product, it is intended as a tool to train forecasters about total lightning as well as foster discussions on product visualizations and incorporating GLM-resolution data into forecast operations. The PGLM has been used in 2010 and 2011 and is likely to remain the primary lightning training tool for the GOES-R program for the near future. This presentation will emphasize the feedback received during the 2011 Spring Program. This will discuss several topics. Based on feedback from the 2010 Spring Program, SPoRT created two variant PGLM products, which NSSL produced locally and provided in real-time within AWIPS for 2011. The first is the flash initiation density (FID) product, which creates a gridded display showing the number of flashes that originated in each 8 8 km grid box. The second product is the maximum flash density (MFD). This shows the highest PGLM value for each grid point over a specific period of time, ranging from 30 to 120 minutes. In addition to the evaluation of these two new products, the evaluation of the PGLM itself will be covered. The presentation will conclude with forecaster feedback for additional improvements requested for future evaluations, such as within the 2012 Spring Program.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Selected Papers Presented at MODSIM World 2011 Conference and Expo

Selected papers from MODSIM World 2011 Conference & Expo are contained in this NASA Conference Publication (CP). MODSIM World 2011 was held in Virginia Beach, Virginia, October 11-14, 2011. The theme of the 2011 conference & expo was "Overcoming Critical Global Challenges with Modeling & Simulation". The conference program consisted of five technical tracks - Defense, Homeland Security & First Responders; Education; Health & Medicine; The Human Dimension; and Serious Games & Virtual Worlds.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2011 Annual Report

This volume of reports is the 2011 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the components of IVS. The 2011 Annual Report documents the work of these IVS components over the period January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2011.

Baver, Karen D.↗

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗