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Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment for Advanced Condition Monitoring Techniques

With the shift away from time-based maintenance and toward condition-based maintenance, and to reduce overall maintenance costs, there has been an upsurge in the usage and development of advanced condition monitoring (ACM) techniques for real-time monitoring of nuclear power plant (NPP) components. ACM is particularly useful in the development of digital twins, which are designed to predict the failure or degradation of plant components. Successful implementation of ACM requires an assessment to inform the development of a risk-informed approach to evaluate the use of ACM to meet Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) regulations for in-service testing (IST) programs. This includes the monitoring and diagnostics of reactor components and systems in current, new, and advanced reactors. A key component in ACM is the usage of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that can employ real-time data from instrumentation and sensors to detect and predict reactor component degradations. Such predictive capabilities enable early detection of component degradation so as to help plant personnel plan and execute necessary maintenance. For successful implementation of ML/AI in ACM such that regulatory requirements are met, a risk-informed graded approach is needed to assess the reliability and performance of ML/AI for ACM. The American Society for Mechanical Engineers (ASME) developed their Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Code to provide guidance on safe, reliable O&M of NPPs. The IST section of the O&M Code specifically establishes requirements for IST and examination to gauge operational readiness of components in water-cooled NPPs. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of how reliability and risk assessment can be integrated with ACM to assess component performance by non-nuclear industries. This is followed by different methodologies and approaches for conducting performance and reliability assessments so as to meet IST requirements for NPP components.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Quantitative analysis of aortic regurgitation: real-time 3-dimensional and 2-dimensional color Doppler echocardiographic method--a clinical and a chronic animal study

BACKGROUND: For evaluating patients with aortic regurgitation (AR), regurgitant volumes, left ventricular (LV) stroke volumes (SV), and absolute LV volumes are valuable indices. AIM: The aim of this study was to validate the combination of real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography (3DE) and semiautomated digital color Doppler cardiac flow measurement (ACM) for quantifying absolute LV volumes, LVSV, and AR volumes using an animal model of chronic AR and to investigate its clinical applicability. METHODS: In 8 sheep, a total of 26 hemodynamic states were obtained pharmacologically 20 weeks after the aortic valve noncoronary (n = 4) or right coronary (n = 4) leaflet was incised to produce AR. Reference standard LVSV and AR volume were determined using the electromagnetic flow method (EM). Simultaneous epicardial real-time 3DE studies were performed to obtain LV end-diastolic volumes (LVEDV), end-systolic volumes (LVESV), and LVSV by subtracting LVESV from LVEDV. Simultaneous ACM was performed to obtain LVSV and transmitral flows; AR volume was calculated by subtracting transmitral flow volume from LVSV. In a total of 19 patients with AR, real-time 3DE and ACM were used to obtain LVSVs and these were compared with each other. RESULTS: A strong relationship was found between LVSV derived from EM and those from the real-time 3DE (r = 0.93, P <.001, mean difference (3D - EM) = -1.0 +/- 9.8 mL). A good relationship between LVSV and AR volumes derived from EM and those by ACM was found (r = 0.88, P <.001). A good relationship between LVSV derived from real-time 3DE and that from ACM was observed (r = 0.73, P <.01, mean difference = 2.5 +/- 7.9 mL). In patients, a good relationship between LVSV obtained by real-time 3DE and ACM was found (r = 0.90, P <.001, mean difference = 0.6 +/- 9.8 mL). CONCLUSION: The combination of ACM and real-time 3DE for quantifying LV volumes, LVSV, and AR volumes was validated by the chronic animal study and was shown to be clinically applicable.

Validation Studies

Orion Launch Abort Vehicle Attitude Control Motor Testing

Current Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV) configurations use an eight-jet, solid-fueled Attitude Control Motor (ACM) to provide required vehicle control for all proposed abort trajectories. Due to the forward position of the ACM on the LAV, it is necessary to assess the effects of jet-interactions (JI) between the various ACM nozzle plumes and the external flow along the outside surfaces of the vehicle. These JI-induced changes in flight control characteristics must be accounted for in developing ACM operations and LAV flight characteristics. A test program to generate jet interaction aerodynamic increment data for multiple LAV configurations was conducted in the NASA Ames and NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels from August 2007 through December 2009. Using cold air as the simulant gas, powered subscale models were used to generate interaction data at subsonic, transonic, and supersonic test conditions. This paper presents an overview of the complete ACM JI experimental test program for Orion LAV configurations, highlighting ACM system modeling, nozzle scaling assumptions, experimental test techniques, and data reduction methodologies. Lessons learned are discussed, and sample jet interaction data are shown. These data, in conjunction with computational predictions, were used to create the ACM JI increments for all relevant flight databases.

Murphy, Kelly J.

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment of Sensor and Instrumentation Systems within Advanced Condition Monitoring Technologies

Advanced condition monitoring (ACM) technologies, such as digital twins, are innovative strategies designed to provide real-time health insights, including the remaining useful life of components. The primary goal of ACM is to predict and alert operators to potential functional failures before they occur. ACM systems achieve this by integrating predictive models with various sensor instrumentation, analog-to-digital converters, data warehouses, and data pre-processors. These sensor and instrumentation systems (SIS) are essential for forming a comprehensive understanding of component conditions and ensuring the predictive success of ACM programs. Introducing new technologies like ACM involves varying degrees of risk that can impact plant reliability. Therefore, risk mitigation should be commensurate with the performance and reliability of the developed technology, following a risk-informed graded approach (RIGA). Establishing a RIGA process requires a clear understanding of the hazards and reliability of all subsystems, including their interdependencies and potential impacts on the overall system. Given the critical role of SIS in ACM, this work reviews hazard identification and reliability quantification methods for SIS. It also considers these methods' implications when developing a RIGA process for ACM.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Service Provider Agnostic Adaptive Coding and Modulation System Design

Commercial service providers (CSPs) are increasingly used to provide communications services to near-Earth science and exploration missions. CSPs commonly utilize modems that are designed to implement adaptive coding and modulation (ACM) in unique ways with modems from the same vendor. However, some missions cannot fly a matching vendor modem, either because the vendor only designs modems for terrestrial use, or the mission needs to fly a software defined radio. We present an ACM system design that allows missions to implement ACM on DVB-S2 compliant CSP links without needing to fly a modem from the same vendor the CSP uses. We implement and test our design in an emulated communications testbed. These tests demonstrate that our ACM system design can successfully adapt to link quality changes up to 6.12 dB/second.

Adaptive coding and modulation

Service Provider Agnostic Adaptive Coding and Modulation System Design

Commercial service providers (CSPs) are increasingly used to provide communications services to near-Earth science and exploration missions. CSPs commonly utilize modems that are designed to implement adaptive coding and modulation (ACM) in unique ways with modems from the same vendor. However, some missions cannot fly a matching vendor modem, either because the vendor only designs modems for terrestrial use, or the mission needs to fly a software defined radio. We present an ACM system design that allows missions to implement ACM on DVB-S2 compliant CSP links without needing to fly a modem from the same vendor the CSP uses. We implement and test our design in an emulated communications testbed. These tests demonstrate that our ACM system design can successfully adapt to link quality changes up to 6.12 dB/second.

Adaptive coding and modulation

Evaluation of rotor-bearing system dynamic response to unbalance

The vibration environment within air conditioner rotating machinery referred to as an air cycle machine (ACM) was investigated to effectively increase ACM reliability. To assist in the selection of design changes which would result in improved ACM performance, various design modifications were incorporated into a baseline ACM configuration. For each design change, testing was conducted with the best balance achieveable (baseline) and with various degrees of unbalance. Relationships between unbalance (within the context of design changes) and the parameters associated with design goals were established. The results of rotor dynamics tests used to establish these relationships are presented.

Thaller, R. E.

Overview of C/C-SiC Composite Development for the Orion Launch Abort System

Past and present efforts by the authors to further understanding of the ceramic matrix composite (CMC) material used in the valve components of the Orion Launch Abort System (LAS) Attitude Control Motor (ACM) will be presented. The LAS is designed to quickly lift the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) away from its launch vehicle in emergency abort scenarios. The ACM is a solid rocket motor which utilizes eight throttleable nozzles to maintain proper orientation of the CEV during abort operations. Launch abort systems have not been available for use by NASA on manned launches since the last Apollo ]Saturn launch in 1975. The CMC material, carbon-carbon/silicon-carbide (C/C-SiC), is manufactured by Fiber Materials, Inc. and consists of a rigid 4-directional carbon-fiber tow weave reinforced with a mixed carbon plus SiC matrix. Several valve and full system (8-valve) static motor tests have been conducted by the motor vendor. The culmination of these tests was the successful flight test of the Orion LAS Pad Abort One (PA ]1) vehicle on May 6, 2010. Due to the fast pace of the LAS development program, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center assisted the LAS community by performing a series of material and component evaluations using fired hardware from valve and full ]system development motor tests, and from the PA-1 flight ACM motor. Information will be presented on the structure of the C/C-SiC material, as well as the efficacy of various non ]destructive evaluation (NDE) techniques, including but not limited to: radiography, computed tomography, nanofocus computed tomography, and X-ray transmission microscopy. Examinations of the microstructure of the material via scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy will also be discussed. The findings resulting from the subject effort are assisting the LAS Project in risk assessments and in possible modifications to the final ACM operational design.

Allen, Lee R.

Simple processing via thermal treatment and catalyst infiltration to enhance nickel electrode performance for liquid alkaline water electrolyzers

Two simple processes for enhancing liquid alkaline water electrolyzer performance are demonstrated. Both enhance 3D Ni electrodes by introducing a micron-scale rough structure throughout the bulk of the electrode. Oxidation/reduction relies on a simple thermal treatment cycle to create surface roughening through the volumetric expansion during NiO formation and volume contraction during reduction back to Ni metal. Catalyst infiltration introduces a washcoat of additional metal particles throughout the electrode, by flooding the electrode with catalyst precursor and converting it to micron-scale particles via a reducing thermal treatment. Further, the largest improvement in performance (211mV at 1.8Acm -2 ) is observed for infiltrated NiFe-3x catalyst. For Fe-free Ni-only electrodes, oxidation/reduction provides a larger improvement (157 mV at 1.8Acm -2 ) than infiltrated Ni-3X (106mV at 1.8Acm -2 ). For both processes, the observed electrode surface structure and performance is quite sensitive to the thermal treatment temperature.

08 HYDROGEN

Toward domain-specific design environments: Some representation ideas from the telecommunications domain

ACME is an experimental environment for investigating new approaches to modeling and analysis of system requirements and designs. ACME is built on and extends object-oriented conceptual modeling techniques and knowledge representation and reasoning (KRR) tools. The most immediate intended use for ACME is to help represent, understand, and communicate system designs during the early stages of system planning and requirements engineering. While our research is ostensibly aimed at software systems in general, we are particularly motivated to make an impact in the telecommunications domain, especially in the area referred to as Intelligent Networks (IN's). IN systems contain the software to provide services to users of a telecommunications network (e.g., call processing services, information services, etc.) as well as the software that provides the internal infrastructure for providing the services (e.g., resource management, billing, etc.). The software includes not only systems developed by the network proprietors but also by a growing group of independent service software providers.

Greenspan, Sol

Design, building, and testing of the postlanding systems for the assured crew return vehicle

The design, building, and testing of the postlanding support systems for a water-landing Assured Crew Return Vehicle (ACRV) are presented. One ACRV will be permanently docked to Space Station Freedom, fulfilling NASA's commitment to Assured Crew Return Capability in the event of an accident or illness. The configuration of the ACRV is based on an Apollo Command Module (ACM) derivative. The 1990-1991 effort concentrated on the design, building, and testing of a one-fifth scale model of the egress and stabilization systems. The objective was to determine the feasibility of (1) stabilizing the ACM out of the range of motions that cause seasickness and (2) the safe and rapid removal of a sick or injured crew member from the ACRV. The development of the ACRV postlanding systems model was performed at the University of Central Florida with guidance from the Kennedy Space Center ACRV program managers. Emphasis was placed on four major areas. First was design and construction of a one-fifth scale model of the ACM derivative to accommodate the egress and stabilization systems for testing. Second was the identification of a water test facility suitable for testing the model in all possible configurations. Third was the construction of the rapid egress mechanism designed in the previous academic year for incorporation into the ACRV model. The fourth area was construction and motion response testing of the attitude ring and underwater parachute systems.

Hosterman, Kenneth C.

Modeling aerosol emissions from the combustion of composite materials

The use of advanced composite materials (ACM) in the B-2 bomber, composite armored vehicle, and F-22 advanced tactical fighter has rekindled interest concerning the health risk of burned or burning ACM. The objective of this work was to determine smoke production from burning ACM and its toxicity. A commercial version of the UPITT II combustion toxicity method developed at the University of Pittsburgh, and subsequently refined through a US Army-funded basic research project, was used to established controlled combustion conditions which were selected to evaluate real-world exposure scenarios. Production and yield of toxic species varied with the combustion conditions. Previous work with this method showed that the combustion conditions directly influenced the toxicity of the decomposition products from a variety of materials.

Roop, J. A.

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia

Derivation of Aerosol Columnar Mass from MODIS Optical Depth

In order to verify performance, aerosol transport models (ATM) compare aerosol columnar mass (ACM) with those derived from satellite measurements. The comparison is inherently indirect since satellites derive optical depths and they use a proportionality constant to derive the ACM. Analogously, ATMs output a four dimensional ACM distribution and the optical depth is linearly derived. In both cases, the proportionality constant requires a direct intervention of the user by prescribing the aerosol composition and size distribution. This study introduces a method that minimizes the direct user intervention by making use of the new aerosol products of MODIS. A parameterization is introduced for the derivation of columnar aerosol mass (AMC) and CCN concentration (CCNC) and comparisons between sunphotometer, MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and in-measurements are shown. The method still relies on the scaling between AMC and optical depth but the proportionality constant is dependent on the MODIS derived r$_{eff}$,\eta (contribution of the accumulation mode radiance to the total radiance), ambient RH and an assumed constant aerosol composition. The CCNC is derived fkom a recent parameterization of CCNC as a function of the retrieved aerosol volume. By comparing with in-situ data (ACE-2 and TARFOX campaigns), it is shown that retrievals in dry ambient conditions (dust) are improved when using a proportionality constant dependent on r$ {eff}$ and \eta derived in the same pixel. In high humidity environments, the improvement inthe new method is inconclusive because of the difficulty in accounting for the uneven vertical distribution of relative humidity. Additionally, two detailed comparisons of AMC and CCNC retrieved by the MAS algorithm and the new method are shown. The new method and MAS retrievals of AMC are within the same order of magnitude with respect to the in-situ measurements of aerosol mass. However, the proposed method is closer to the in-situ measurements than the MODIS retrievals. The retrievals of CCNC are also within the same order of magnitude for both methods. The new method is applied to an actual MODIS retrieval and although no in-situ data is available to compare, it is shown that the proposed method yields more credible values than the MODIS retrievals. In addition, recent data available from the PRIDE (Puerto Rico Dust Experiment, July 2000) will be shown by comparing sunphotometer, MODIS and in-situ data.

Gasso, Santiago

Autonomous Aircraft Operations using RTCA Guidelines for Airborne Conflict Management

A human-in-the-loop experiment was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center to study the feasibility of DAG-TM autonomous aircraft operations in highly constrained airspace. The airspace was constrained by a pair of special-use airspace (SUA) regions on either side of the pilot's planned route. Traffic flow management (TFM) constraints were imposed as a required time of arrival and crossing altitude at an en route fix. Key guidelines from the RTCA Airborne Conflict Management (ACM) concept were applied to autonomous aircraft operations for this experiment. These concepts included the RTCA ACM definitions of distinct conflict detection and collision avoidance zones, and the use of a graded system of conflict alerts for the flight crew. Three studies were conducted in the course of the experiment. The first study investigated the effect of hazard proximity upon pilot ability to meet constraints and solve conflict situations. The second study investigated pilot use of the airborne tools when faced with an unexpected loss of separation (LOS). The third study explored pilot interactions in an over-constrained conflict situation, with and without priority rules dictating who should move first. Detailed results from these studies were presented at the 5th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar (ATM2003). This overview paper focuses on the integration of the RTCA ACM concept into autonomous aircraft operations in highly constrained situations, and provides an overview of the results presented at the ATM2003 seminar. These results, together with previously reported studies, continue to support the feasibility of autonomous aircraft operations.

Krishnamurthy, Karthik

Aerodynamic and Aeroacoustic Wind Tunnel Testing of the Orion Spacecraft

The Orion aerodynamic testing team has completed more than 40 tests as part of developing the aerodynamic and loads databases for the vehicle. These databases are key to achieving good mechanical design for the vehicle and to ensure controllable flight during all potential atmospheric phases of a mission, including launch aborts. A wide variety of wind tunnels have been used by the team to document not only the aerodynamics but the aeroacoustic environment that the Orion might experience both during nominal ascents and launch aborts. During potential abort scenarios the effects of the various rocket motor plumes on the vehicle must be accurately understood. The Abort Motor (AM) is a high-thrust, short duration motor that rapidly separates Orion from its launch vehicle. The Attitude Control Motor (ACM), located in the nose of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle, is used for control during a potential abort. The 8 plumes from the ACM interact in a nonlinear manner with the four AM plumes which required a carefully controlled test to define the interactions and their effect on the control authority provided by the ACM. Techniques for measuring dynamic stability and for simulating rocket plume aerodynamics and acoustics were improved or developed in the course of building the aerodynamic and loads databases for Orion.

Ross, James C.

Time Accurate CFD Simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the Transonic Regime

Significant asymmetries in the fluid dynamics were calculated for some cases in the CFD simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle through its abort trajectories. The CFD simulations were performed steady state and in three dimensions with symmetric geometries, no freestream sideslip angle, and motors firing. The trajectory points at issue were in the transonic regime, at 0 and +/- 5 angles of attack with the Abort Motors with and without the Attitude Control Motors (ACM) firing. In some of the cases the asymmetric fluid dynamics resulted in aerodynamic side forces that were large enough that would overcome the control authority of the ACMs. MSFC's Fluid Dynamics Group supported the investigation into the cause of the flow asymmetries with time accurate CFD simulations, utilizing a hybrid RANS-LES turbulence model. The results show that the flow over the vehicle and the subsequent interaction with the AB and ACM motor plumes were unsteady. The resulting instantaneous aerodynamic forces were oscillatory with fairly large magnitudes. Time averaged aerodynamic forces were essentially symmetric.

Rojahn, Josh

Time Accurate CFD Simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the Transonic Regime

Significant asymmetries in the fluid dynamics were calculated for some cases in the CFD simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle through its abort trajectories. The CFD simulations were performed steady state with symmetric boundary conditions and geometries. The trajectory points at issue were in the transonic regime, at 0 and 5 angles of attack with the Abort Motors with and without the Attitude Control Motors (ACM) firing. In some of the cases the asymmetric fluid dynamics resulted in aerodynamic side forces that were large enough that would overcome the control authority of the ACMs. MSFC s Fluid Dynamics Group supported the investigation into the cause of the flow asymmetries with time accurate CFD simulations, utilizing a hybrid RANS-LES turbulence model. The results show that the flow over the vehicle and the subsequent interaction with the AB and ACM motor plumes were unsteady. The resulting instantaneous aerodynamic forces were oscillatory with fairly large magnitudes. Time averaged aerodynamic forces were essentially symmetric.

Ruf, Joseph