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Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS)

NASA recently restructured its Space Communications Program to emphasize the development of high risk communication technology useable in multiple frequency bands and to support a wide range of future communication needs. As part of this restructuring, the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project will develop and experimentally verify the technology associated with multiple fixed and scanning beam systems which will enable growth in communication satellite capacities and more effective utilization of the radio frequency spectrum. The ACTS requirements and operations as well as the technology significance for future systems are described.

Gedney, R. T.↗

Fade Dynamics and Its Evolution: The Other Part of the Acts Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required as similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in [Manning, 1990]. In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic of time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian [Denisenko] and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following [Denisenko] in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Fade Dynamics and its Evolution: The Other Part of the ACTS Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required a similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in (Manning). In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic or time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of a random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian (Denisenko) and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following (Denisenko) in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.↗

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

Manning, Robert M.↗

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

Manning, Robert M.↗

The Implications of ACTS Technology on the Requirements of Rain Attenuation Modeling for Communication System Specification and Analysis at 30/20 GHz and Beyond

The advent of the use of the Ka-Band for space communications, coupled with the introduction of digital modulation techniques as well as multiple-beam methodology for satellites, has deemed it necessary to reassess the plethora of rain attenuation prediction models in use. The Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project, undertaken by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in 1983, offered such challenges to rain attenuation prediction modeling. Up to 1983, no such single modeling formalism existed that could fill such requirements. Not even the work done by the NASA Propagation Experimenters (NAPEX) Group had envisioned such requirements, so no dynamic Ka-Band data existed from which one could draw conclusions. In this paper, the basic rudiments of what has become to be known as the 'ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model' will be presented. The concept of rain fade mitigation control availability will be introduced. A new evaluation is then presented for the performance of satellite communication systems, in particular, those to be operating within the Ka-Band and above, that will necessarily employ some type of dynamic rain fade mitigation procedure.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Determining Exact RANS Operators with the Macroscopic Forcing Method (Final Report)

This report contains a compilation of key results and findings from the ACT project “Determining Exact RANS Operators with the Macroscopic Forcing Method.” The Macroscopic Forcing Method (MFM), a numerical tool for determining closure operators, is used to measure eddy diffusivity moments in Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability. It is first applied to low-Atwood 2D RT instability; that work is then extended to 3D RT at different finite Atwood numbers. It is found that nonlocality is important for modeling the mean scalar transport closure operator in RT mixing. Additionally, work is done to improve the statistical convergence of MFM for chaotic problems like RT mixing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The NASA radiowave propagation program

The objectives of the NASA radiowave Propagation Program are to enable new satellite communication applications and to enhance existing satellite communication networks. These objectives are achieved by supporting radio wave propagation studies and disseminating the study results in a timely fashion. Studies initiated by this program in the 1980s enabled the infant concept of conducting mobile communications via satellite to reach a state of relative maturity in 1990. The program also supported the satellite communications community by publishing and revising two handbooks dealing with radio wave propagation effects for frequencies below and above 10 GHz, respectively. The program has served the international community through its support of the International Telecommunications Union. It supports state of the art work at universities. Currently, the program is focusing on the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) and its propagation needs. An overview of the program's involvement in the ACTS project is given.

Davarian, Faramaz↗

Space Communication Artificial Intelligence for Link Evaluation Terminal (SCAILET)

A software application to assist end-users of the high burst rate (HBR) link evaluation terminal (LET) for satellite communications is being developed. The HBR LET system developed at NASA Lewis Research Center is an element of the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The HBR LET is divided into seven major subsystems, each with its own expert. Programming scripts, test procedures defined by design engineers, set up the HBR LET system. These programming scripts are cryptic, hard to maintain and require a steep learning curve. These scripts were developed by the system engineers who will not be available for the end-users of the system. To increase end-user productivity a friendly interface needs to be added to the system. One possible solution is to provide the user with adequate documentation to perform the needed tasks. With the complexity of this system the vast amount of documentation needed would be overwhelming and the information would be hard to retrieve. With limited resources, maintenance is another reason for not using this form of documentation. An advanced form of interaction is being explored using current computer techniques. This application, which incorporates a combination of multimedia and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to provided end-users with an intelligent interface to the HBR LET system, is comprised of an intelligent assistant, intelligent tutoring, and hypermedia documentation. The intelligent assistant and tutoring systems address the critical programming needs of the end-user.

Shahidi, Anoosh K.↗

ACTS: Technology Description and Results

The ACTS Project was originated at NASA Glenn Research Center in the early 1980's to sponsor the development and application of technology that was intended to be used by the private sector. The program was formulated with the underlying philosophy of maintaining US leadership in satellite communications while focusing technology development for efficient use of the frequency spectrum. This report chronicles the execution and results of the program from the perspective of its technology managers, from inception through hardware and system development to on-orbit experiments and demonstrations of the technology. The first eight sections of the report discuss programmatic background, the specific satellite and ground terminal technology and the results generated by the program including industry relevance. A federally funded program of this type attracted strong advocates and adversaries and the resulting impact on the project schedule is also discussed. The last two sections are a list of useful acronyms and extensive references.

Gedney, Richard T.↗

Comparative Study of 3-Dimensional Woven Joint Architectures for Composite Spacecraft Structures

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate initiated an Advanced Composite Technology (ACT) Project through the Exploration Technology Development Program in order to support the polymer composite needs for future heavy lift launch architectures. As an example, the large composite structural applications on Ares V inspired the evaluation of advanced joining technologies, specifically 3D woven composite joints, which could be applied to segmented barrel structures needed for autoclave cured barrel segments due to autoclave size constraints. Implementation of these 3D woven joint technologies may offer enhancements in damage tolerance without sacrificing weight. However, baseline mechanical performance data is needed to properly analyze the joint stresses and subsequently design/down-select a preform architecture. Six different configurations were designed and prepared for this study; each consisting of a different combination of warp/fill fiber volume ratio and preform interlocking method (Z-fiber, fully interlocked, or hybrid). Tensile testing was performed for this study with the enhancement of a dual camera Digital Image Correlation (DIC) system which provides the capability to measure full-field strains and three dimensional displacements of objects under load. As expected, the ratio of warp/fill fiber has a direct influence on strength and modulus, with higher values measured in the direction of higher fiber volume bias. When comparing the Z-fiber weave to a fully interlocked weave with comparable fiber bias, the Z-fiber weave demonstrated the best performance in two different comparisons. We report the measured tensile strengths and moduli for test coupons from the 6 different weave configurations under study.

Jones, Justin S.↗

SCADA Application for ACTS Technology

A satellite and earth terminal systems study was initiated by the NASA Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project Office and was performed by Hughes Network Systems. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential of a specialized Ka-band spot beam satellite to reduce the cost of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) communications. The study showed that the technology exists to build a system that could be priced less than 77permonthperRTU(remoteterminalunit),includingearthstationequipment.TheRTUearthstation,orUSAT,wouldcost a quantity level of 500000. SCADA systems which poll RTU's rapidly will not be as economical to serve by satellite. A parallel study initiated by Southern California Edison and performed by Weber State University found similar satellite economics at Ku-band, but did not address earth station manufacturing cost. Market size estimates support a phased development approach. The first phase would be prototype system development at both Ku- and Ka-bands. NASA is currently sponsoring an additional study that would develop more detailed specifications.

B. Fairbanks↗

Composite Payload Fairing Structural Architecture Assessment and Selection

This paper provides a summary of the structural architecture assessments conducted and a recommendation for an affordable high performance composite structural concept to use on the next generation heavy-lift launch vehicle, the Space Launch System (SLS). The Structural Concepts Element of the Advanced Composites Technology (ACT) project and its follow on the Lightweight Spacecraft Structures and Materials (LSSM) project was tasked with evaluating a number of composite construction technologies for specific Ares V components: the Payload Shroud, the Interstage, and the Core Stage Intertank. Team studies strived to address the structural challenges, risks and needs for each of these vehicle components. Leveraging off of this work, the subsequent Composites for Exploration (CoEx) effort is focused on providing a composite structural concept to support the Payload Fairing for SLS. This paper documents the evaluation and down selection of composite construction technologies and evolution to the SLS Payload Fairing. Development of the evaluation criteria (also referred to as Figures of Merit or FOMs), their relative importance, and association to vehicle requirements are presented. A summary of the evaluation results, and a recommendation of the composite concept to baseline in the Composites for Exploration (CoEx) project is presented. The recommendation for the SLS Fairing is a Honeycomb Sandwich architecture based primarily on affordability and performance with two promising alternatives, Hat stiffened and Fiber Reinforced Foam (FRF) identified for eventual program block upgrade.

Krivanek, Thomas M.↗

Composite Interstage Structural Concept Down Select Process and Results

NASA's Advanced Composites Technologies (ACT) project evaluated several composite construction options for the Ares V Interstage to support the Constellation Program's goal of reducing the mass of vehicle dry structures. In Phase 1 of the project, eight candidate construction concepts were evaluated for the Ares V Interstage design. Trade studies were performed using finite element analyses to determine weight estimates for the construction concepts. An evaluation process was then used to down select the construction concepts down to two concepts for further consideration in Phase 2 of the project. In Phase 2 of the project, additional trade studies were performed using detailed finite element analyses of the Interstage and a final down select process was used to choose the recommended Interstage construction concept. The results of the study showed that a honeycomb sandwich design was the most favorable Interstage construction concept based on advantages in manufacturing cost. Details of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 trade studies and down select process with final results are presented in the paper.

Sleight, David W.↗

ACTE Wing Loads Analysis

The Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge (ACTE) project modified a Gulfstream III (GIII) aircraft with a new flexible flap that creates a seamless transition between the flap and the wing. As with any new modification, it is crucial to ensure that the aircraft will not become overstressed in flight. To test this, Star CCM a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software program was used to calculate aerodynamic data for the aircraft at given flight conditions.

CFD↗

Applications of Displacement Transfer Functions to Deformed Shape Predictions of the G-III Swept-Wing Structure

In support of the Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge [ACTE] project at the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center, displacement transfer functions were applied to the swept wing of a Gulfstream G-III airplane (Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Savannah, Georgia) to obtain deformed shape predictions. Four strainsensing lines (two on the lower surface, two on the upper surface) were used to calculate the deformed shape of the G III wing under bending and torsion. There being an insufficient number of surface strain sensors, the existing G III wing box finite element model was used to generate simulated surface strains for input to the displacement transfer functions. The resulting predicted deflections have good correlation with the finite-element generated deflections as well as the measured deflections from the ground load calibration test. The convergence study showed that the displacement prediction error at the G III wing tip can be reduced by increasing the number of strain stations (for each strain-sensing line) down to a minimum error of l.6 percent at 17 strain stations; using more than 17 strain stations yielded no benefit because the error slightly increased to 1.9% when 32 strain stations were used.

displacement theory↗

Comparative Study of 3-Dimensional Woven Joint Architectures for Composite Spacecraft Structures

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate initiated an Advanced Composite Technology (ACT) Project through the Exploration Technology Development Program in order to support the polymer composite needs for future heavy lift launch architectures. As an example, the large composite structural applications on Ares V inspired the evaluation of advanced joining technologies, specifically 3D woven composite joints, which could be applied to traditionally manufactured barrel segments. Implementation of these 3D woven joint technologies may offer enhancements in damage tolerance without sacrificing weight. However, baseline mechanical performance data is needed to properly analyze the joint stresses and subsequently design/down-select a preform architecture. Six different configurations were designed and prepared for this study; each consisting of a different combination of warp/fill fiber volume ratio and preform interlocking method (z-fiber, fully interlocked, or hybrid). Tensile testing was performed for this study with the enhancement of a dual camera Digital Image Correlation (DIC) system which provides the capability to measure full-field strains and three dimensional displacements of objects under load. As expected, the ratio of warp/fill fiber has a direct influence on strength and modulus, with higher values measured in the direction of higher fiber volume bias. When comparing the z-fiber weave to a fully interlocked weave with comparable fiber bias, the z-fiber weave demonstrated the best performance in two different comparisons. We report the measured tensile strengths and moduli for test coupons from the 6 different weave configurations under study.

Jones, Justin S.↗