Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “AE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Visualization of fast ion phase-space flow in plasmas well-below, near and well-above Alfvén eigenmode stability threshold in tokamak

Abstract Transport of fast ions along certain local phase space paths, referred to as fast ion phase-space flow, has been systematically measured by an imaging neutral particle analyzer (INPA) in three plasma regimes, which are well-below, near, and well-above the Alfvén eigenmode stability threshold (Du et al 2021 Phys. Rev. Lett. 127 235002). (1) In plasmas well-below the Alfvén eignenmodes (AE) stability threshold, fast ions are well-confined on passing particle orbits without noticeable transport over the phase space. The observed INPA images agree well with the synthetic INPA images, using the fast ion distribution predicted by neoclassical theory. (2) In plasmas near the AE stability threshold, INPA images in the presence of AE activity moderately deviate from those without AE activity. The image difference can be well interpreted by AE-driven, phase-space fast ion flow. Paths of this flow over the velocity space (or streamlines) are reconstructed by the intersection lines of curved E ʹ and µ surfaces, referred to as E ʹ and µ line (where E ′ ≡ E − ( ω / n ) P ζ ; E , P ζ and µ are the energy, canonical toroidal momentum and magnetic moment of ions; ω and n are the angular frequency and toroidal mode number of AEs, respectively). Resonant fast ions move radially inward by gaining energy and move radially outward by losing energy and the trajectory well aligns with the E ʹ and µ lines that pass through the mode resonances near the injection energy of neutral beams. (3) In plasmas well-above the AE stability threshold, fast ion phase-space dynamics shows additional features. Fast ions are transported out of the birth positions so promptly along the streamlines that the slowing-down process from the injection energy is not observable, exhibiting strong critical gradient behavior at local phase space. As a result, the increase of electron temperature is very small, in spite of an increase of beam power by ∼ 45 % . It should be emphasized that the directions of phase-space transport, induced by AEs with different frequencies, structures and mode numbers, do not largely differ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast ion relaxation in ITER mediated by Alfvén instabilities

Abstract We address the critical issue for future burning plasmas of whether high-energy fusion products or auxiliary heating-beam ions will be confined for a sufficiently long time to compensate for thermal plasma energy losses. This issue can be mitigated by one of the most deleterious collective phenomena—the instability of low, sub-cyclotron frequency Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs), such as toroidicity-induced AEs and reversed-shear AEs in the ITER steady-state scenario. Using a revised quasi-linear (QL) theory applied to energetic particle (EP) relaxation in the presence of AEs, we find that the AE instabilities can affect both neutral beam ions and alpha particles, although the resulting fast ion transport is expected to be modest if classical particle slowing down is assumed. On the other hand, the QL theory predicts that the AE amplitudes will be enhanced by the background microturbulence, although this topic remains outside our scope due to the significant numerical effort required to evaluate these effects. We report our results for EP relaxation dynamics obtained utilizing several tools: (i) a comprehensive linear stability study of the sub-cyclotron Alfvénic spectrum as computed by ideal magnetohydrodynamic NOVA simulations for the AE eigenproblem, (ii) drift kinetic NOVA-C calculations for wave–particle interaction and AE growth/damping rates, and (iii) predictive QL modeling coupled with the global transport code TRANSP to assess the EP relaxation on the equilibrium timescale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the anatomy of acoustic emission

Abrupt, local frictional fault failure comprises a displacement that is normally accompanied by acoustic emission (AE)—an impulsive elastic wave broadcast with an amplitude proportional to particle velocity. The aggregate of these displacements is the basic fault motion. In laboratory shear experiments, the examination of a sequence of laboratory earthquakes includes continuous measurements of fault motion and the associated AE that is broadcast. From these measurements, connections between the fault motion and cumulative sum of the AE amplitude can be identified. The composition of the AE broadcasts reveals inhomogeneity in the fault mechanical structure from which they arise. This inhomogeneity can be decomposed into a time invariant AE component and an articulated AE component. The articulated AE component serves as a “state of the fault diagnostic” that follows a distinctive pattern to fault failure. Thus, the articulated AE component can be used directly to monitor the state of the fault.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of Alfvén eigenmode stability in Quasi-Poloidal Stellarator (QPS) plasma using a Landau closure model

The aim of this study is to analyze the linear stability of Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) in the QPS device heated by a tangential neutral beam injector (NBI). The analysis is performed using the gyro-fluid code FAR3d, that solves the reduced MHD equations for the thermal plasma coupled with moments of the kinetic equation for the energetic particles (EP). The AE stability is calculated in several operational regimes of the tangential NBI: EP β between 0.001 and 0.1, EP energy between 12 and 180 keV and different radial locations of the beam. The analysis is performed for vacuum and finite β equilibria as well as QPS configurations with two and three periods. The EP β threshold in the vacuum case is 0.001 and the AE frequency is lower as the energy of the EP population decreases. Toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes with f = 80–120 kHz and elliptical AE between f = 120–350 kHz are triggered between the middle-outer plasma region ($r/a \gt 0.5$). The AE stability improves in the simulations with finite β equilibria and three period configurations with respect to the vacuum case with two periods because the continuum gaps are slender, leading to a higher threshold of the EP β, above 0.03 for the AEs triggered by the helical mode families. Helical effects are not strong enough to destabilize Helical Alfvén eigenmodes, the AEs with the largest growth rates are triggered by the n = 1 and n = 2 toroidal families.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Orbit-following simulations of fast-ion transport and losses due to the Alfvén eigenmode burst in the Large Helical Device

Orbit-following simulations of fast-ion transport and losses with time-dependent electromagnetic perturbations are performed to clarify the roles of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) and the low-frequency magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode observed in the kinetic-MHD hybrid simulation of AE bursts in the Large Helical Device. Fast-ion pressure profile flattening in the kinetic-MHD hybrid simulation can be reproduced by an orbit-following simulation with only the primary single AE of the time-dependent amplitude following the kinetic-MHD hybrid simulation result, while orbit-following simulations with constant AE amplitude of average level during AE burst cannot reproduce the fast-ion pressure profile flattening observed. The effects of other modes are negligible on the fast-ion pressure profile flattening. The fast-ion losses in kinetic-MHD hybrid simulation can be reproduced by an orbit-following simulation with time-dependent amplitude when the low-frequency MHD mode is considered in addition to multiple AEs. This indicates the synergetic effect of multiple AEs and the low-frequency MHD mode on fast-ion losses.

Seki, Ryohsuke↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of machine learning systems trained to detect Alfvén eigenmodes using the CO 2 interferometer on DIII-D

Abstract A Machine-Learning (ML) based detection scheme that automatically detects Alfvén Eigenmodes (AE) in a labelled DIII-D database is presented here. Controlling AEs is important for the success of planned burning plasma devices such as ITER, since resonant fast ions can drive AEs unstable and degrade the performance of the plasma or damage the first walls of the machine vessel. Artificial Intelligence could be useful for real-time detection and control of AEs in steady-state plasma scenarios by implementing ML-based models into control algorithms that drive actuators for mitigation of AE impacts. Thus, the objective is to compare differences in performance between using two different recurrent neural network systems (Reservoir Computing Network and Long Short Term Memory Network) and two different representations of the C O 2 phase data (simple and crosspower spectrograms). All C O 2 interferometer chords are used to train both models, but only one is processed during each training step. The results from the model and data comparison show higher performance for the RCN model (True Positive Rate = 90% and False Positive Rate = 14%), and that using simple magnitude spectrograms is sufficient to detect AEs. Also, the vertical C O 2 interferometer chord passing near the center is better for ML-based detection of AEs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-resolution source imaging and moment tensor estimation of acoustic emissions during brittle creep of basalt undergoing carbonation

SUMMARY As the high-frequency analogue to field-scale earthquakes, acoustic emissions (AEs) provide a valuable complement to study rock deformation mechanisms. During the load-stepping creep experiments with CO2-saturated water injection into a basaltic sample from Carbfix site in Iceland, 8791 AE events are detected by at least one of the seven piezoelectric sensors. Here, we apply a cross-correlation-based source imaging method, called geometric-mean reverse-time migration (GmRTM) to locate those AE events. Besides the attractive picking-free feature shared with other waveform-based methods (e.g. time-reversal imaging), GmRTM is advantageous in generating high-resolution source images with reduced imaging artefacts, especially for experiments with relatively sparse receivers. In general, the imaged AE locations are found to be scattered across the sample, suggesting a complicated fracture network rather than a well-defined major shear fracture plane, in agreement with X-ray computed tomography imaging results after retrieval of samples from the deformation apparatus. Clustering the events in space and time using the nearest-neighbour approach revealed a group of ‘repeaters’, which are spatially co-located over an elongated period of time and likely indicate crack, or shear band growth. Furthermore, we select 2196 AE events with high signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) and conduct moment tensor estimation using the adjoint (backpropagated) strain tensor fields at the locations of AE sources. The resulting AE locations and focal mechanisms support our previously assertion that creep of basalt at the experimental conditions is accommodated dominantly by distributed microcracking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Tropical Pacific-induced Predictability of Southern California Precipitation Using a Novel Multi-input Multi-output Autoencoder

We construct a novel Multi-Input Multi-Output Autoencoder-decoder (MIMO-AE) to capture the non-linear relationship of Southern California precipitation and tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature. The MIMO-AE is trained on both monthly TP-SST and SC-PRECIP anomalies simultaneously. The co-variability of the two fields in the MIMO-AE shared nonlinear latent space can be condensed into an index, termed the MIMO-AE index. We use a transfer learning approach to train a MIMO-AE on the combined dataset of 100 years of output from a historical simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model version 1 and a segment of observational data. We further use Long Short-Term Memory networks to assess sub-seasonal predictability of SC-PRECIP using the MIMO-AE index. We find that the MIMO-AE index provides enhanced predictability of SC-PRECIP for a lead-time of up-to four months as compared to Niño 3.4 index and the El Niño Southern Oscillation Longitudinal Index.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic analysis and data mining of opioid-related adverse events submitted to the FAERS database

The opioid epidemic has become a serious national crisis in the United States. An indepth systematic analysis of opioid-related adverse events (AEs) can clarify the risks presented by opioid exposure, as well as the individual risk profiles of specific opioid drugs and the potential relationships among the opioids. In this study, 92 opioids were identified from the list of all Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs, annotated by RxNorm and were classified into 13 opioid groups: buprenorphine, codeine, dihydrocodeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, meperidine, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, oxymorphone, tapentadol, and tramadol. A total of 14,970,399 AE reports were retrieved and downloaded from the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) from 2004, Quarter 1 to 2020, Quarter 3. After data processing, Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) was then applied which identified 3317 pairs of potential risk signals within the 13 opioid groups. Based on these potential safety signals, a comparative analysis was pursued to provide a global overview of opioid-related AEs for all 13 groups of FDA-approved prescription opioids. The top 10 most reported AEs for each opioid class were then presented. Both network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were conducted to further explore the relationship between opioids. Results from the network analysis revealed a close association among fentanyl, oxycodone, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone, which shared more than 22 AEs. In addition, much less commonly reported AEs were shared among dihydrocodeine, meperidine, oxymorphone, and tapentadol. On the contrary, the hierarchical clustering analysis further categorized the 13 opioid classes into two groups by comparing the full profiles of presence/absence of AEs. The results of network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were not only consistent and cross-validated each other but also provided a better and deeper understanding of the associations and relationships between the 13 opioid groups with respect to their adverse effect profiles.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Particle-Wave Interactions and Alfvén Eigenmodes in JET Tokamak Plasmas

This document serves as the closeout report of DOE Grant Award No. DE-FG02-99ER54563 with project period 1 April 2015 through 31 March 2020. The project comprised the international collaboration between MIT and EU scientists on the JET facility to improve our understanding of the physics of energetic particle-wave interactions by measuring the damping rates of stable Alfvén Eigenmodes (AEs) and unstable energetic particle driven modes. More specifically, this project involved the continued participation of MIT, the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy, the Swiss Plasma Center, and theorists from various European laboratories and from UC Irvine. Past contributions from the University of São Paulo are gratefully acknowledged. The Alfvén Eigenmode Active Diagnostic (AEAD) on JET discharges was successfully upgraded in this period and has extracted physically useful information, in primarily deuterium plasma discharges. It is expected that such experiments would be continued during the DT campaign in CY 2021 to assess the damping rates of similar modes in the presence of alpha particles, a product of fusing burning plasma. Only JET would carry out such experiments in the near term in the world. It is important to note that this collaboration was continued under DOE Grant Award No. DE-SC0014264 from 1 April 2020 through the present. In this grant period, the AEAD was upgraded with a set of individual amplifiers for each of a set of six antennas in two toroidally opposite locations. These new amplifiers allowed targeted selection of the antennas’ toroidal spectrum for AEs of interest with toroidal mode number | n | ≤ 20. The resonant detection and measurement of the damping rates of AEs was obtained from magnetic probes that could be compared with theory and simulations. This is a key topic of investigation for ITER and all other next-step fusion experiments, where such modes will interact with energetic particles produced by fusion reactions (alpha particles), Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) and Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH). The majority of the observations during this period were of Toroidal Alfvén Eigenmodes (TAEs) as these are most commonly observed on JET; a number of measurements were made during dedicated TAE experiments. However, a new set of lower frequency band filters were procured with the goal of studying Geodesic Acoustic Modes (GAMs), Beta (Acoustic) AEs (BAE/BAAEs), and Reverse Shear AEs (RSAEs), also predicted by theory. Commissioning and optimizations were successfully completed in this period, and the diagnostic has been in operation during the more recent JET campaigns. Initial results have been obtained in dedicated TAE experiments and successfully compared to drift-kinetic theory. A wide range of theoretical studies have been undertaken in support of the upcoming JET campaigns experiments. To supplement the ongoing use of ideal MHD codes, such as MISHKA during the studies of TAEs, gyrokinetic simulations of low frequency AEs were performed in collaboration with UC Irvine. The Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) was used to determine the structure, frequencies and stability of AEs in JET plasmas. Thus, a solid scientific foundation has been laid for future DT campaigns in JET in the 2021 operation period when the damping rates of relevant modes in the presence of alpha particles could be assessed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dependence of alpha-particle-driven Alfven eigenmode linear stability on device magnetic field strength and consequences for next-generation tokamaks

Recently-proposed tokamak concepts use magnetic fields up to 12 T, far higher than in conven- tional devices, to reduce size and cost. Theoretical and computational study of trends in plasma behavior with increasing field strength is critical to such proposed devices. This paper considers trends in Alfven eigenmode (AE) stability. Energetic particles, including alphas from D-T fusion, can destabilize AEs, possibly causing loss of alpha heat and damage to the device. AEs are sensitive to device magnetic field via the field dependence of resonances, alpha particle beta, and alpha orbit width. We describe the origin and effect of these dependences analytically and by using recently- developed numerical techniques (Rodrigues et al. 2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 083003). The work suggests high-field machines where fusion-born alphas are sub-Alfvenic or nearly sub-Alfvenic may partially cut off AE resonances, reducing growth rates of AEs and the energy of alphas interacting with them. High-field burning plasma regimes have non-negligible alpha particle beta and AE drive, but faster slowing down time, provided by high electron density, and higher field strength reduces this drive relative to low-field machines with similar power densities. The toroidal mode number of the most unstable modes will tend to be higher in high magnetic field devices. The work suggests that high magnetic field devices have unique, and potentially advantageous, AE instability properties at both low and high densities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A prediction model of failure threshold for shear deformation in a Zr-based bulk metallic glass

The failure of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) during plastic deformation at room temperature is abrupt and instantaneous, while the analysis of precursor information based on avalanche events helps predict catastrophic failure. An acoustic emission (AE) signal can provide accurate precursor information for material failure, due to its sensitive and high fast calculation ability. In the current study, AE monitoring tests are carried out during uniaxial compression tests of BMGs at different strain rates. The AE experimental failure threshold, E max , is proposed on the basis of AE cumulative energy, which reflects the intensity of damage evolution at different loading conditions. Compared with the critical shear band velocity (CSBV) associated with stick-slip dynamics of serrated flow, E max is a more sensitive failure parameter since it is connected with the local microscopic changes that occur during the material response process. Here, the E max is obtained prior to reaching the CSBV since the calculation of these two avalanches analysis focuses on the different stages of shear band growth. In particular, AE events are related to the “dry” friction process in the first stage, however, the CSBV is responsible for the “viscous” glide in the second stage. Therefore, Emax is not affected by the complex interactions between the shear bands during the stick-slip process. The maximum avalanche of serrated flow, S max , is proposed as the experimental failure threshold, which depends on the applied strain rate as S max ~ $\dot{ε}$ –λ . According to the relationship of E max and S max , the theoretical failure threshold, E max , follows a criterion E max = 2545$\dot{ε}$ –λ - 4468, where λ is equivalent to 0.15 for this work. Finally, combining the different calculations and AE measurements, this model gives new insights to predict the deformation failure behavior of Zr-based BMGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relationships between fault characteristics and seismic responses in a large lab-scale tri-axial injection test conducted on a faulted Castlegate Sandstone

Here to investigate mechanisms causing microseismicity (M w < 2) at a CO 2 injection site, a large-scale triaxial block experiment was carried out on a faulted (saw-cut) cubic-meter of Castlegate Sandstone. The experiment consisted of injection tests at varying differential stresses, while monitoring and recording pore pressure and acoustic emissions (AEs). During the experiment, ~33,000 AEs and ~14 mm of horizontal displacement/slip, like a strike-slip fault movement, occurred. To understand the AE responses and ascertain fault characteristics near the located AEs, we modeled the topography of the fault surface, fault aperture, and fault-gouge thickness using pre- and post-experiment laser scans of the fault surface on each half of the block. Additionally, we characterized surface roughness parallel and perpendicular to slip. Models show crushing and flattening of the fault surfaces can be linked to the spatiotemporal distribution of AEs within 50 mm of the fault surface. Approximately 65% of AEs were in areas with small aperture (≤300 μm); thicker fault gouge was observed in adjacent areas with wider aperture and shows a two-fold reduction in grain size relative to unaltered Castlegate Sandstone. This work provides a conceptual understanding on fault surface evolution, which can be applied towards modeling of seismic slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Effects of Aliovalent Substitutions in Thermoelectric Zintl Pnictides. Varied Polyanionic Dimensionality and Complex Structural Transformations–The Case of Sr 3 ZnP 3 vs Sr 3 Al x Zn 1– x P 3

The structures and the transport properties of a novel family of Zintl phosphides and arsenides with the formula AE 3 ZnPn 3 and the solid solutions AE 3 Al x Zn 1–x Pn 3 , AE 3 ZnAs y P 1–y (AE = Sr, Eu; Pn = P, As) are reported. Crystals of nine new phases have been obtained via Pb-flux reactions and used for structural work by means of single-crystal X-ray diffraction methods. The derived orthorhombic structure is without a direct analog, and features unusual structural units, where the Zn atoms are in both distorted tetrahedral and trigonal-planar coordination of pnictogens. Electronic structure calculations reveal moderately wide bandgaps for Sr 3 ZnP 3 and Sr 3 ZnAs 3 , on the order of 0.70 and 0.63 eV, respectively. Electrical transport measurements above room temperature indicate relatively high resistivity values above 500 K (ρ ≈ 4.8 Ω cm and above), but some of the samples exhibit very high Seebeck coefficients, as large as 300 μV/K at 560 K for Sr 3 ZnAs 3 . Aliovalent substitutions in AE 3 ZnPn 3 , achieved by the partial replacement of Zn 2+ with Al 3+ cations promote occupational and positional disorder, which causes structural transformation towards the disordered variant of the Sr 5 Al 2 Sb 6 structure type. Such substitutions also change the dimensionality of the polyanionic sub-lattice in the resulting quaternary AE 3 Al x Zn 1–x Pn 3 phases. Furthermore, preliminary transport property data on the latter reveal nine times lower electrical resistivity (ρ 500 ≈ 0.5 Ω cm) together with a significantly enhanced Seebeck coefficient, αmax ≈ 430 μV/K at 560 K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Molecular Modeling of Surfactant Interaction on Phospholipid Bilayers Mimicking Corneal Epithelium

Surfactants found in consumer products can compromise eye corneal membrane integrity upon accidental exposure. Traditional in vitro and in vivo approaches to evaluate membrane–surfactant interaction pose experimental limitations such as species variability, reproducibility, and most often do not provide the overall picture. These limitations motivate the use of in silico models to study phenomena like cellular disruption assays caused by surfactants at the molecular scale. In this work, coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations have been employed to investigate how nonionic alcohol ethoxylate (AE) and anionic surfactant alcohol ethoxy sulfate (AES) interact with lipid bilayer liposomes that mimic corneal epithelial cell membranes. The spherical liposome is composed of 1,2-dihexadecanoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DPPC), 1,2-di(9Z-octadecenoyl)-sn-glycero-3-phosphoethanolamine (DOPE), 1,2-di(9Z-octadecenoyl)-sn-glycero-3-phospho-l-serine (DOPS), and cholesterol, resembling the composition of the corneal epithelial cells’ membrane bilayer. The simulation consisted of varying degrees of representative surfactant compositions and two initial types of surfactant configurations within or outside the liposome. Our results reveal that both surfactants induce outer leaflet bulging, agreeing with membrane solubilization models. The more highly ethoxylated surfactant, AE, caused more consistent inner leaflet disruption than AES, resulting in significantly more water permeation and membrane thinning. In addition, both surfactants increase the lateral diffusion of lipids within the membrane layers, with higher ethoxylated AE showing a stronger effect than AES. This study demonstrates how surfactant structure and localization influence bilayer membrane integrity, offering mechanistic insights into the irritation potential, thus guiding the rational design of effective surfactant-based formulations.

Lipids↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examination of Radiation Belt Dynamics During Substorm Clusters: Activity Drivers and Dependencies of Trapped Flux Enhancements

Here, dynamical variations of radiation belt trapped electron fluxes are examined to better understand the variability of enhancements linked to substorm clusters. Analysis is undertaken using the Substorm Onsets and Phases from Indices of the Electrojet substorm cluster algorithm for event detection. Observations from low earth orbit are complemented by additional measurements from medium earth orbit to allow a major expansion in the energy range considered, from medium energy energetic electrons up to ultra-relativistic electrons. The number of substorms identified inside a cluster does not depend strongly on solar wind drivers or geomagnetic indices either before, during, or after the cluster start time. Clusters of substorms linked to moderate (100 nT < AE ≤ 300 nT) or strong AE (AE ≥ 300 nT) disturbances are associated with radiation belt flux enhancements, including up to ultra-relativistic energies by the strongest substorms (as measured by strong southward Bz and high AE). These clusters reliably occur during times of high speed solar winds streams with associated increased magnetospheric convection. However, substorm clusters associated with quiet AE disturbances (AE ≤ 100 nT) lead to no significant chorus whistler mode intensity enhancements, or increases in energetic, relativistic, or ultra-relativistic electron flux in the outer radiation belts. In these cases the solar wind speed is low, and the geomagnetic Kp index indicates a lack of magnetospheric convection. Our study clearly indicates that clusters of substorms occurring outside of high speed wind streams are not by themselves sufficient to drive acceleration, which may be due to the lack of pre-cluster convection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of the energetic particle redistribution by an improved critical gradient model and analysis of the transport threshold

Based on the theory of critical gradient model (CGM) and following the simulation method proposed by Waltz et al., a combination of TGLFEP and EPtran code is employed to predict the energetic particle (EP) transport induced by Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). To be consistent with the experiment, recent improvements to the simulation method include consideration of threshold evolution and orbit loss due to finite orbit width. The revised CGM is applied to simulate two DIII-D experimental discharges (#142111 and #153071). It well reproduces the experimental profiles with multiple unstable AEs and large-scale EP transport. Discharge #142111 had previously been simulated using a nonlinear MHD-kinetic code MEGA with a transport mechanism based on stochasticity induced by overlapping AE. By comparing the simulated EP profiles, we find that the AE transport threshold is approximated by both the MEGA nonlinear stability threshold and the proposed CGM threshold (error <5% for single n and <17% for multiple n simulation). Both of them are larger than the linear stability threshold of the most unstable AE mode by a quantity of the order of the flux needed to sustain EP transport by the background turbulence. Additionally, we have also applied the improved CGM to simulate the α particle redistribution for a China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor steady state scenario. Because of the clear separation between the AE unstable region and the loss cone, only a moderate α particle loss of ~9.6% is predicted.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗