Composition changes in the upper atmosphere
Changes in upper atmospheric composition
UPPER ATMOSPHERE↗
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The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be a boon and bane to water resource managers as they have the ability to replenish water reserves, but they can also generate million-to-billion-dollar flood damages. To investigate how anthropogenic climate change may influence AR characteristics in the coastal western United States by end century, we employ a suite of novel tools such as variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM), the TempestExtremes AR detection algorithm, and the Ralph, Rutz, et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1) AR category scale.We show that end-century ARs primarily shift from being “mostly or primarily beneficial” to “mostly or primarily hazardous” with a concomitant sharpening and intensification of winter season precipitation totals. Changes in precipitation totals are due to a significant increase in AR (+260%) rather than non-AR (+7%) precipitation, largely through increases in the most intense category of AR events and a decrease in the interval between landfalling ARs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
ATLAS-1 and middle atmosphere global change
To understand the extent and trends of middle atmosphere change, it is necessary to establish the baseline of atmospheric behavior and its response to changes in solar irradiance over at least a solar cycle. An element in NASA's global change program is the ATLAS shuttle series. The international payload includes several instruments intended to make precise, absolute measurements of solar irradiance, each being calibrated before and after each shuttle flight. These instruments, in addition to obtaining an 11-year database, will also intercalibrate solar instruments on the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) and Upper Atmosphere Research (UARS) satellites. Other instruments will measure the atmospheric composition and temperature, also intercalibrating instruments on Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N and UARS. Some have flown on shuttle missions dating back to 1983 and it is hoped that the ATLAS series will provide a capability until the turn of the century. This paper reviews the early results of the ATLAS-1 mission, which flew between March 24 and April 2, 1992.
Torr, Marsha R.↗
Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land
Arctic sea-ice retreat has been linked to increased winter precipitation and heavy snowfall over land, likely due to a combination of enhanced evaporation from ice-free Arctic marginal seas (AMS) and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, their relative roles and contributions remain uncertain. Here, we show that a greater proportion of AMS evaporative moisture reached high-latitude land during the cold seasons from 1980–1989 to 2012–2021. Atmospheric circulation changes added an additional 13 % increase in the AMS moisture contribution, accounting for 11 % of the total increase in AMS-sourced land precipitation. Notably, 46 % of the increase in AMS-sourced extreme snowfall is attributed to circulation-driven landward moisture transport, representing an 84 % increase beyond the effect of enhanced AMS evaporation alone. Further analysis indicates that both the rise in Arctic moisture and the atmospheric circulation shifts are primarily driven by anthropogenic forcing. These findings highlight how atmospheric circulation changes amplify extreme snowfall fueled by AMS evaporation, underscoring the synergistic effects of Arctic sea ice loss and circulation change on high-latitude winter precipitation.
Anthropogenic forcing↗
Source of Global Scale Variations in the Midday Vertical Content of Ionospheric Metal Ions
An analysis of long baseline NIMBUS 7 SBUV (Solar Backscatter UV Spectrometer) observations of the latitudinal variation of the noontime vertical Mg' content above approx. 70 km have revealed seasonal, solar activity and magnetic activity dependencies in the Mg+ content. The distributions were categorized in terms of magnetic coordinates partially because transport processes lifting metallic ions from the main meteor ionization layer below 100 km up into the F- region and down again are controlled by electrodynamical processes. Alternatively, the Nimbus Mg+ distributions may simply be a result of ion/neutral chemistry changes resulting from atmospheric changes and not dynamics. In such a case magnetic control would not dominate the distributions. Using in situ satellite measurements of metal ions from the Atmosphere Explorer satellites in the region above the main meteor layer and published sounding rocket measurements of the main metallic ion layers, the effects of the dynamics on the vertical content are delineated. The consequences of atmospheric changes on the vertical content are explored by separating the Nimbus measurements in a geodetic frame of reference.
Joiner, J.↗
Satellite Observations for Detecting and Tracking Changes in Atmospheric Composition
The satellite observations provide constraints on detailed atmospheric modeling, including emissions inventories, indications of transport, harmonized data over vast areas suitable for trends analysis, and a link between spatial scales ranging from local to global, and temporal scales from diurnal to interannual. 1 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-term commitments help provide these observations in cooperation with international meteorological organizations. NASA s long-term commitments will advance scientifically important observations as part of its Earth Science Program, and will assist the transition of the science measurements to applied analyses through the Applied Science Program. Both NASA and NOAA have begun to provide near realtime data and tools to visualize and analyze satellite data,2 while maintaining data quality, validation, and standards. Consequently, decision-makers can expect satellite data services to support air quality decision making now and in the future. The international scientific community's Integrated Global Atmosphere Chemistry Observation System Report3 outlined a plan for ground-based, airborne and satellite measurements and models to integrate the observations into a four-dimensional representation of the atmosphere (space and time) to support assessment and policy information needs. This plan is being carried out under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Demonstrations of such an integrated capability4 provide new understanding of the changing atmosphere and link policy decisions to benefits for society. In this article, we highlight the use of satellite data to constrain biomass burning emissions, to assess oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions, and to contribute to state implementation plans, as examples of the use of satellite observations for detecting and tracking changes in atmospheric composition.
Neil, Doreen O.↗
Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting
The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions
Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.
Atmosphere climate chemistry↗
Wetland Emission and Atmospheric Sink Changes Explain Methane Growth in 2020
Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns(1). Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr−1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns(2). From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings(3,4,) our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge(5).
Shushi Peng↗
The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC): History, Status and Perspectives
The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) is an international global network of more than 90 stations making high-quality measurements of atmospheric composition that began official operations in 1991 after 5 years of planning. Apart from sonde measurements, all measurements in the network are performed by ground-based remote-sensing techniques. Originally named the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), the name of the network was changed to NDACC in 2005 to better reflect the expanded scope of its measurements. The primary goal of NDACC is to establish long-term databases for detecting changes and trends in the chemical and physical state of the atmosphere (mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere) and to assess the coupling of such changes with climate and air quality. NDACC's origins, station locations, organizational structure, and data archiving are described. NDACC is structured around categories of ground-based observational techniques (sonde, lidar, microwave radiometers, Fourier-transform infrared, UV-visible DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy)-type, and Dobson-Brewer spectrometers, as well as spectral UV radiometers), timely cross-cutting themes (ozone, water vapour, measurement strategies, cross-network data integration), satellite measurement systems, and theory and analyses. Participation in NDACC requires compliance with strict measurement and data protocols to ensure that the network data are of high and consistent quality. To widen its scope, NDACC has established formal collaborative agreements with eight other cooperating networks and Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). A brief history is provided, major accomplishments of NDACC during its first 25 years of operation are reviewed, and a forward-looking perspective is presented.
lidar↗
Atmospheric temperature changes associated with high altitude turbulence
Test flight data analyzed for atmospheric temperature changes associated with high altitude turbulence
Kadlec, P. W.↗
Microbial contributions to the Precambrian Earth
Life has existed on Earth for approximately 3.5 billion years. For most of this time, prokaryotic communities provided the major biological forces changing the Earth. Many changes in atmospheric gas composition occurred during the Archean and Proterozoic eons as a result of microbial activity. Extant microbial communities were used to help understand the dynamics which contributed to these atmospheric changes. The microbial mat communities were characterized according to the organismic constituents. Symbiosis in microbial communities is recognized as a major force in cell evolution. Among the evolutinary enigmas investigated is the problem of the origin of the undulipodia. Undulipodial microtubules are still deployed for major cellular processes such as mitosis and meiosis. Several prokaryotes were tested for the presence of the S1-type protein, so far only spirochetes were found to possess it. The S1-type protein is being sought in cyanobacteria reported to contain microtubules.
Margulis, L.↗
Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes
The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.
heat wave patterns↗
BOREAS (Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study): Global change and biosphere-atmosphere interactions in the boreal forest
The Boreal Ecosystems Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) is a cooperative field and analysis project involving elements of land surface climatology, tropospheric chemistry, and terrestrial ecology. The goal of the study is to understand the interactions between the boreal forest biome and the atmosphere in order to clarify their roles in global change. The study will be centered on two 20 by 20 km sites within the North American boreal forest region, located near the northern and southern limits of the biome. Studies based at these sites will be used to explore the roles of various environmental factors in controlling the extent and character of the biome. The sites will be the subject of surface, airborne, and satellite based observations which aim to improve understanding of the biological and physical processes and states which govern the exchanges of energy, water, carbon, and trace gases between boreal forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. Particular reference will be made to those processes and states that may be sensitive to global change. The study also aims to develop the use of remote sensing techniques to transfer understanding of the above process from local scales out to regional scales. The BOREAS project is being planned for 1992-1996, with a major field effort in 1994.
Sellers, Piers J.↗
Solar activity and changes in atmospheric circulation
Several related investigations of the possible influence of the solar and interplanetary magnetic sector structure on the atmospheric circulation are described. The area of low pressure troughs in the northern hemisphere has a minimum about one day after a warped heliospheric current sheet has been carried past the earth by the solar wind. Possible physical mechanisms could relate to phase changes in meteorological processes, changes in atmospheric electricity or changes in solar extreme ultraviolet irradiation. A quantitative analysis suggests that the accuracy of weather forcasting decreases during the two days after the warped heliospheric current sheet has passed the earth. A description is given of several further investigations in progress.
Wilcox, J. M.↗
Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and their Effects on Surface Radiation
We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007) during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations) ground-based measurements) and intensive field experiments have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol trends and their relationship to the changes of aerosol and precursor emissions and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world) including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America) Europe) Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions) dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities) downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area) and remote regions that are considered to representing "backgroundH conditions.
Chin, Mian↗
Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and Their Effect on Surface Radiation
We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations and ground-based remote sensing and in-situ measurements have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol optical depth and concentration trends and their relationship to the changes of emissions" and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world, including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America, Europe, Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions, dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities, downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area, and remote regions that are considered to representing "background" conditions.
Chin, Mian↗
Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and their Effect on Surface Radiation
We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model, GOCART, along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007 during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and intensive field experiments have become available. Particularly: (1) We compare the model calculated clear sky downward radiation at the surface with surface network data from BSRN and CMA (2) We compare the model and surface data with satellite derived downward radiation products from ISCCP and SRS (3) We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol trends in major anthropogenic source regions (North America, Europe, Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions during the three decades, dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variability, downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area, and remote regions that are considered to representing "background" conditions. The comparisons and methods from this study can be applied to multiple model analysis in the AeroCom framework.
Chin, Mian↗