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Observational system for constraining clouds and precipitation in atmospheric models
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Modeling and Impact of Solar Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere and Geospace
Understanding the radiation environment due to solar energetic particles in the heliosphere and the Earth’s magnetosphere is a challenging and practically important task. Exposure to energetic particles often leads to malfunctions and unexpected failures of electronics onboard spacecraft. The most vulnerable are exploratory missions when outside of the Earth’s magnetosphere. Geomagnetic field deflects Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) moving through geospace though some of these particles propagate to LEO and have a high penetrating capability, thus producing significant radiation hazards for human spaceflight. Solar energetic particles also have an essential effect on the composition and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere. Precipitating SEPs enhance the atmospheric concentration of NOx and HOx, which play a crucial role in the ozone balance in the middle atmosphere by destroying odd oxygen through catalytic reactions. Numerical modeling of the radiation environment due to SEPs in the inner heliosphere and geospace is a multifold problem. That includes simulating 1) solar wind dynamics and the interplanetary magnetic field, 2) global modeling of the Earth’s magnetosphere, and 3) modeling transport and acceleration of SEPs in the inner heliosphere and geospace. The lecture will outline the key physical processes that control the behavior of SEPs in the heliosphere and geospace, along with the contemporary numerical methods used for their modeling. It will primarily focus on describing the SEP population in geospace across different altitudes, ranging from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) through Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Orbit (GEO), up to the magnetopause, while considering the realistic geomagnetic field. Additionally, the lecture will cover how the SEP population in geospace varies in response to geomagnetic activity. This includes the temporal trapping of SEPs in geospace and the reduction of the rigidity cutoff during geomagnetic storms.
An energy balance climate model with cloud feedbacks
The present two-level global climate model, which is based on the atmosphere-surface energy balance, includes physically based parameterizations for the exchange of heat and moisture across latitude belts and between the surface and the atmosphere, precipitation and cloud formation, and solar and IR radiation. The model field predictions obtained encompass surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and cloudiness. In the model integrations presented, it is noted that cloudiness is generally constant with changing temperature at low latitudes. High altitude cloudiness increases with temperature, although the cloud feedback effect on the radiation field remains small because of compensating effects on thermal and solar radiation. The net global feedback by the cloud field is negative, but small.
Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States
This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.
LIFETIMES OF OUTER-ZONE ELECTRONS AND THEIR PRECIPITATION INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
Lifetime of outer-zone electrons and their precipitation into the atmosphere
Effects of Precipitation on Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature and Salinity as Simulated in a 2-D Coupled Ocean-Cloud Resolving Atmosphere Model
A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.
Temperature-dependent daily variability of precipitable water in special sensor microwave/imager observations
We use retrievals of atmospheric precipitable water from satellite microwave observations and analyses of near-surface temperature to examine the relationship between these two fields on daily and longer time scales. The retrieval technique producing the data used here is most effective over the open ocean, so the analysis focuses on the southern hemisphere's extratropics, which have an extensive ocean surface. For both the total and the eddy precipitable water fields, there is a close correspondence between local variations in the precipitable water and near-surface temperature. The correspondence appears particularly strong for synoptic and planetary scale transient eddies. More specifically, the results support a typical modeling assumption that transient eddy moisture fields are proportional to transient eddy temperature fields under the assumption f constant relative humidity.
Synoptic Drivers of Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation Near Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) transport anomalous moisture from lower latitudes and can impact the AIS via extreme precipitation and increased downward longwave radiation. ARs contribute significantly to the interannual variability of precipitation over the AIS and thus are likely to play a key role in understanding future changes in the surface mass balance of the AIS. Dronning Maud Land (DML) is one of four maxima in AR frequency over coastal East Antarctica, with AR precipitation explaining 77% of the interannual variability in precipitation for this region. We employ a 16-node self-organizing map (SOM) trained with MERRA-2 sea-level pressure anomalies to identify synoptic-scale environments associated with landfalling ARs in and around DML. Node composites of atmospheric variables reveal common drivers of precipitation associated with ARs reaching DML including anomalous high-low surface pressure couplets, anomalously high integrated water vapor, and coastal barrier jets. Using a quasi-geostrophic framework, we find that upward vertical motion associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones dominates atmospheric lift in AR environments. We further identify mechanisms that explain the variability in AR precipitation intensity across nodes, such as the lift associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones and the spatial coincidence of ascent induced by the occlusion process and frontogenesis. Here, the latter suggests that ARs making landfall during the mature phase of cyclogenesis result in higher precipitation intensity compared to landfalling ARs that occur during the occluded phase.
Determination of sea surface temperatures from microwave and IR data
Microwave measurements from the Nimbus 7 SMMR were used to derive the atmospheric precipitable water, which was then used to obtain the atmospheric correction for use with AVHRR thermal IR measurements to obtain sea surface temperature (SST). The resulting SST's were compared with the NOAA operational sea surface temperature measurements, and the two sets of measurements were found to be in reasonable agreement. The average residuals between the two sets of measurements was 0.15 K with the NOAA operational SST's being slightly greater.
A data–model approach to interpreting speleothem oxygen isotope records from monsoon regions
Reconstruction of past changes in monsoon climate from speleothem oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records is complex because δ 18 O signals can be influenced by multiple factors including changes in precipitation, precipitation recycling over land, temperature at the moisture source, and changes in the moisture source region and transport pathway. Here, we analyse >150 speleothem records of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database to produce composite regional trends in δ 18 O in monsoon regions; compositing minimises the influence of site-specific karst and cave processes that can influence individual site records. We compare speleothem δ 18 O observations with isotope-enabled climate model simulations to investigate the specific climatic factors causing these regional trends. We focus on differences in δ 18 O signals between the mid-Holocene, the peak of the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as on δ 18 O evolution through the Holocene. Differences in speleothem δ 18 O between the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in the East Asian and Indian monsoons are small, despite the larger summer insolation values during the Last Interglacial. Last Glacial Maximum δ 18 O values are significantly less negative than interglacial values. Comparison with simulated glacial–interglacial δ 18 O shows that changes are principally driven by global shifts in temperature and regional precipitation. Holocene speleothem δ 18 O records show distinct and coherent regional trends. Trends are similar to summer insolation in India, China and southwestern South America, but they are different in the Indonesian–Australian region. Redundancy analysis shows that 37 % of Holocene variability can be accounted for by latitude and longitude, supporting the differentiation of records into individual monsoon regions. Regression analysis of simulated precipitation δ 18 O and climate variables show significant relationships between global Holocene monsoon δ 18 O trends and changes in precipitation, atmospheric circulation and (to a lesser extent) source area temperature, whereas precipitation recycling is non-significant. However, there are differences in regional-scale mechanisms: there are clear relationships between changes in precipitation and δ 18 O for India, southwestern South America and the Indonesian–Australian regions but not for the East Asian monsoon. Changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to δ 18 O trends in the East Asian, Indian and Indonesian–Australian monsoons, and a weak source area temperature effect is observed over southern and central America and Asia. Precipitation recycling is influential in southwestern South America and southern Africa. Overall, our analyses show that it is possible to differentiate the impacts of specific climatic mechanisms influencing precipitation δ 18 O and use this analysis to interpret changes in speleothem δ 18 O.
Energetic Particles Dynamics in Mercury's Magnetosphere
We investigate the drift paths of energetic particles in Mercury's magnetosphere by tracing their motion through a model magnetic field. Test particle simulations solving the full Lorentz force show a quasi-trapped energetic particle population that gradient and curvature drift around the planet via "Shabansky" orbits, passing though high latitudes in the compressed dayside by equatorial latitudes on the nightside. Due to their large gyroradii, energetic H+ and Na+ ions will typically collide with the planet or the magnetopause and will not be able to complete a full drift orbit. These simulations provide direct comparison for recent spacecraft measurements from MESSENGER. Mercury's offset dipole results in an asymmetric loss cone and therefore an asymmetry in particle precipitation with more particles precipitating in the southern hemisphere. Since the planet lacks an atmosphere, precipitating particles will collide directly with the surface of the planet. The incident charged particles can kick up neutrals from the surface and have implications for the formation of the exosphere and weathering of the surface
Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.
NASA/MSFC FY90 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review
Research supported by the Global Atmospheric Research Program at the Marshall Space Flight Center on atmospheric remote sensing, meteorology, numerical weather forecasting, satellite data analysis, cloud precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric models and related topics is discussed.
Florida Agriculture - Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects Upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management
This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.
Physical retrieval of precipitation water contents from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Part 1: A cloud ensemble/radiative parameterization for sensor response (report version)
The physical retrieval of geophysical parameters based upon remotely sensed data requires a sensor response model which relates the upwelling radiances that the sensor observes to the parameters to be retrieved. In the retrieval of precipitation water contents from satellite passive microwave observations, the sensor response model has two basic components. First, a description of the radiative transfer of microwaves through a precipitating atmosphere must be considered, because it is necessary to establish the physical relationship between precipitation water content and upwelling microwave brightness temperature. Also the spatial response of the satellite microwave sensor (or antenna pattern) must be included in the description of sensor response, since precipitation and the associated brightness temperature field can vary over a typical microwave sensor resolution footprint. A 'population' of convective cells, as well as stratiform clouds, are simulated using a computationally-efficient multi-cylinder cloud model. Ensembles of clouds selected at random from the population, distributed over a 25 km x 25 km model domain, serve as the basis for radiative transfer calculations of upwelling brightness temperatures at the SSM/I frequencies. Sensor spatial response is treated explicitly by convolving the upwelling brightness temperature by the domain-integrated SSM/I antenna patterns. The sensor response model is utilized in precipitation water content retrievals.
Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates Over the Southern Ocean from Atmospheric Reanalyses
Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and plays a significant role in the sea-ice mass balance in the polar regions. Over the Southern Ocean, precipitation is particularly uncertain due to the lack of direct observations in this remote and harsh environment. Here we demonstrate that precipitation estimates from 8 global reanalyses produce similar spatial patterns between 2000-2010, although their annual means vary by about 250 mm yr -1 (or 26 percent of the median values) and there is little similarity in their representation of interannual variability. ERA-Interim produces the smallest and CFSR produces the largest amount of precipitation overall. Rainfall and snowfall are partitioned in five reanalyses; snowfall suffers from the same issues as the total precipitation comparison, with ERA-Interim producing about 128 mm less snowfall and JRA-55 about 103 mm more rainfall compared to the other reanalyses. When compared to CloudSat-derived snowfall, these five reanalyses indicate similar spatial patterns, but differ in their magnitude. All reanalyses indicate precipitation on nearly every day of the year, with spurious values occurring on an average of about 60 days yr -1 resulting in an accumulation of about 4.5 mm yr -1 . While similarities in spatial patterns among the reanalyses suggest a convergence, the large spread in magnitudes points to issues with the background models in adequately reproducing precipitation rates, and the differences in the model physics employed. Further improvements to model physics are required to achieve confidence in precipitation rate, as well as the phase and frequency of precipitation in these products.
In situ cosmogenic H-3, C-14, and Be-10 for determining the net accumulation and ablation rates of ice sheets
The usefulness of the in situ cosmogenic H-3, C-14, and Be-10 produced by spallation of oxygen nuclei in ice, as tracers to determine net accumulation/ablation rates of ice sheets is explored. The application of the in situ H-3 and Be-10 is severely constrained because at deposition, ice contains appreciable amounts of these isotopes from the atmosphere. The case is much more favorable for C-14, which is not carried with wet precipitations; atmospheric C-14 gets mechanically trapped in the ice during deposition. It is pointed out that cosmogenic C-14 would probably exist as (C-14)O in ice. This seems to be supported by the published results of Fireman and Norris (1981). Considering their inherent amounts in the ice and the expected in situ production rates, conditions under which these isotopes can be used to study net accumulation and ablation rates are discussed. Available data on C-14 and Be-10 on polar ice from accumulation and ablation zones is also discussed. It is concluded that H-3 and C-14 should find wide applications in studying ice dynamics and Be-10 in very special circumstances.