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Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying

Climate-driven permafrost thaw alters the strongly coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles within the Arctic tundra, influencing the availability of limiting nutrients including nitrate (NO3−). Researchers have identified two primary mechanisms that increase nitrogen and NO3− availability within permafrost soils: (1) the ‘frozen feast’, where previously frozen organic material becomes available as it thaws, and (2) ‘shrubification’, where expansion of nitrogen-fixing shrubs promotes increased soil nitrogen. Through the synthesis of original and previously published observational data, and the application of multiple geospatial approaches, this study investigates and highlights a third mechanism that increases NO3− availability: the hydrogeomorphic evolution of polygonal permafrost landscapes. Permafrost thaw drives changes in microtopography, increasing the drainage of topographic highs, thus increasing oxic conditions that promote NO3− production and accumulation. We extrapolate relationships between NO3− and soil moisture in elevated topographic features within our study area and the broader Alaskan Coastal Plain and investigate potential changes in NO3− availability in response to possible hydrogeomorphic evolution scenarios of permafrost landscapes. These approximations indicate that such changes could increase Arctic tundra NO3− availability by ~250–1000%. Thus, hydrogeomorphic changes that accompany continued permafrost degradation in polygonal permafrost landscapes will substantially increase soil pore water NO3− availability and boost future fertilization and productivity in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whole-Ecosystem Warming Increases Plant-Available Nitrogen and Phosphorus in an Ombrotrophic Bog

Warming is expected to increase the net release of carbon from peatland soils, contributing to future warming. This positive feedback may be moderated by the response of peatland vegetation to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] or to increased soil nutrient availability. We asked whether a gradient of whole-ecosystem warming (from + 0 °C to + 9 °C) would increase plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA, and whether elevated [CO 2 ] would modify the nutrient response. We tracked changes in plant-available nutrients across space and through time and in comparison with other nutrient pools, and assessed whether nutrient warming responses were captured by a point version of the land-surface model, ELM-SPRUCE. We found that warming exponentially increased plant-available ammonium and phosphate, but that nutrient dynamics were unaffected by elevated [CO 2 ]. The warming response increased by an order of magnitude between the first and fourth year of the experimental manipulation, perhaps because of dramatic mortality of Sphagnum mosses in the surface peat of the warmest treatments. However, neither the magnitude nor the temporal dynamics of the responses were captured by ELM-SPRUCE. Here, relative increases in plant-available ammonium and phosphate with warming were similar, but the response varied across raised hummocks and depressed hollows and with peat depth. Plant-available nutrient dynamics were only loosely correlated with inorganic and organic porewater nutrients, likely representing different processes. Future predictions of peatland nutrient availability under climate change scenarios must account for dynamic changes in nutrient acquisition by plants and microbes, as well as microtopography and peat depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2023 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR’s ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. This report covers impacts on drawdown availability due to SPR operations during Calendar Year 2022. A cavern has an available drawdown if, after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a pillar-to-diameter ratio of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for oil sales, purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern’s drawdown capacity may be continued. A methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is reiterated. This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditures. A total of 222 million barrels of oil were released in calendar-year 2022. A nearly-equal amount of raw water was injected, resulting in an estimated 34 million barrels of cavern leaching. Twenty caverns have now expended a full drawdown. Cavern BC 18 has expended all its baseline available drawdowns, and has no drawdowns remaining. Cavern BM 103 has expended one of its two baseline drawdowns, and is now a single-drawdown cavern. All other caverns with an expenditure went from at-least-5 to at-least-4 remaining drawdowns.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Assessment of operational availability for the PIP-II Superconducting Radio Frequency linear accelerator facility

Operational availability is a critical performance measure for an accelerator facility in modern time. A high availability enables the facility to serve a wide range of users simultaneously. Consequently, besides pure accelerator physics considerations, newly proposed accelerator facilities account for the availability and reliability aspects in the design phases. It allows incorporation of appropriate mitigation strategies for the most vulnerable systems in the machine and therefore, minimizes unscheduled interruptions during the operation. This report lays out a methodology for the availability assessment of the complete particle accelerator facility and presents an initial assessment of the availability of the newly proposed Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) accelerator facility at Fermilab. The paper describes a comprehensive reliability model of the PIP-II facility that comprises not only 800 MeV linear accelerator (linac) system but also essential utility systems in the form of cryogenic, water, power and air systems. The paper details estimations of the availability of the PIP-II facility for two operational modes i.e. the nominal operational mode featuring 800 MeV beam and critical operational mode involving operation with the lowest objective beam energy of 600 MeV.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Water Availability for Biorefineries in the Contiguous United States and the Implications for Bioenergy Production Distribution

Renewable biofuel production depends on many factors, including feedstock availability, refinery and shipment infrastructure, and in particular, water availability. This study assesses water requirement and availability for mainstream biorefinery technologies in the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment is conducted in newly defined spatial units, namely, biorefinery planning boundaries, considering feedstock availability, transportation cost, and refinery capacity requirement for cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the total biorefinery water use in the CONUS by 2030 will be low compared to the total water availability. However, biorefinery water requirements can aggravate the water stress situation in many regions, including the Great Plains, California Central Valley, and the upper Columbia-Snake River basin in Washington. Bioenergy productions in these regions can be largely constrained by water. Here, it is projected that biofuel production will concentrate in Northern Plains, Lake States, and Corn Belt regions, which contribute 94.4% of the conventional, 86.1% of biodiesel, and 54.8% of cellulosic biofuel production mandated by the renewable fuel standard. If biorefineries are constrained to use less than 10% of the locally available water, up to 7% of planned cellulosic biofuel production will be affected. Findings from this study can aid the sustainable planning of national bioenergy production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the combined effects of light and water availability on the early growth and physiology of Tamarindus indica : Implications for restoration

Abstract Premise The tamarind tree (Tamarindus indica) is a species of significant cultural, economic, and ecological value, with a pantropical distribution. However, the tamarind is experiencing a decline in wild populations in its native range, but the reasons for its decline remain unknown. Methods We examined the critical early life‐history stages for tamarind establishment to understand how varying levels of light and water availability and watering frequency affect its regeneration. Through three greenhouse experiments, we assessed the impact of these resources on the germination, survival, growth, and physiological responses of tamarind seedlings and saplings. Results Water availability was critical for seed germination, but not light levels or pre‐germination treatments. Light was the primary limiting factor for seedling growth. Tamarinds in high light availability grew taller, had more biomass and larger diameter, but the effect of light was modulated by water availability, indicating that there was an interaction between both resources. Water and light affected specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content but not biomass allocation, root‐to‐shoot ratio, or stomatal conductance. Water availability influenced sapling growth, but watering frequency did not, indicating a resilience of tamarind saplings to changes in rainfall periodicity but a sensitivity to total rainfall amounts. Conclusions Our study underscores the importance of considering both light and water availability in tamarind restoration efforts and contribute to understanding plant responses and trade‐offs under different levels of critical resources. Our findings will inform conservation strategies to support the regeneration and long‐term survival ofTamarindus indicain its native habitats.

Plant Sciences↗

Phylogenetic structure of specialization: A new approach that integrates partner availability and phylogenetic diversity to quantify biotic specialization in ecological networks

Abstract Biotic specialization holds information about the assembly, evolution, and stability of biological communities. Partner availabilities can play an important role in enabling species interactions, where uneven partner availabilities can bias estimates of biotic specialization when using phylogenetic diversity indices. It is therefore important to account for partner availability when characterizing biotic specialization using phylogenies. We developed an index, phylogenetic structure of specialization (PSS), that avoids bias from uneven partner availabilities by uncoupling the null models for interaction frequency and phylogenetic distance. We incorporate the deviation between observed and random interaction frequencies as weights into the calculation of partner phylogenetic α‐diversity. To calculate the PSS index, we then compare observed partner phylogenetic α‐diversity to a null distribution generated by randomizing phylogenetic distances among the same number of partners. PSS quantifies the phylogenetic structure (i.e., clustered, overdispersed, or random) of the partners of a focal species. We show with simulations that the PSS index is not correlated with network properties, which allows comparisons across multiple systems. We also implemented PSS on empirical networks of host–parasite, avian seed‐dispersal, lichenized fungi–cyanobacteria, and hummingbird pollination interactions. Across these systems, a large proportion of taxa interact with phylogenetically random partners according to PSS, sometimes to a larger extent than detected with an existing method that does not account for partner availability. We also found that many taxa interact with phylogenetically clustered partners, while taxa with overdispersed partners were rare. We argue that species with phylogenetically overdispersed partners have often been misinterpreted as generalists when they should be considered specialists. Our results highlight the important role of randomness in shaping interaction networks, even in highly intimate symbioses, and provide a much‐needed quantitative framework to assess the role that evolutionary history and symbiotic specialization play in shaping patterns of biodiversity. PSS is available as an R package at https://github.com/cjpardodelahoz/pss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Highly Available Nuclear Power for Mission-Critical Applications

Some energy consumers require power on an anytime, all-year-round basis with a high level of certainty, including defense installations, isolated communities, and some industrial processes. For these customers, interruptions in electricity or heat can mean substantial financial loss or even loss of life. In the absence of grid-scale energy storage, a high level of power availability can be accomplished only through the robustness and redundancy of power generators. The NuScale small modular reactor design is well suited to provide highly available power because of several features related to both the nuclear steam supply system and the overall plant design. In analogy to Redundant Array of Independent Disks (RAID) systems used to provide highly reliable data storage, a NuScale plant can assure sustained power generation by virtue of its Redundant Array of Integral Reactors (RAIR).This paper describes the NuScale RAIR plant features and summarizes the results of a rigorous analysis of RAIR availability as a function of power or, conversely, the RAIR plant output power as a function of power availability. The analysis utilized the Matrix Laboratory code (MATLAB) and included probability distributions for the frequency and duration of module outages due to planned and unplanned events. Further, the study evaluated the impact of implementing turbine bypass rather than module shutdown and using one or more modules to supply house loads in the case of loss of off-site power (LOOP). Availability results are presented for a 12-module RAIR plant with and without turbine bypass enabled during a LOOP and for different possible connections to the off-site power distribution grid and dedicated service loads. Results indicate that a very high level of availability can be achieved at relatively high power output levels, regardless of turbine bypass and dedicated load connection, compared to the operating fleet.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Repository of HydroSMADE: Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites

This repository presents HydroSMADE—Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble, a new open dataset that provides monthly hydropower availability for 1,593 existing and 124,333 potential sites worldwide over the period 1950–2100. The dataset is generated by using a global hydrologic model (Xanthos) with explicit representation of hydropower operation. Specifically, HydroSMADE distinguishes between storage and diversion sites, applies optimized operating rules, and incorporates site-specific characteristics such as generation capacity, maximum turbine flow, and reservoir storage. Driven by bias-corrected meteorological inputs, the data is provided for 30 alternative future scenarios. The scenarios consist of the full factorial combination of three standard CMIP6 atmospheric forcing pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and ten CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3, CanESM5, MIROC6, CNRM-ESM2-1, UKESM1-0-LL, and CNRM-CM6-1. The repository contains a total of 122 files: a text file (readme.txt) containing a brief description of the included data, a CSV file containing site attributes, and the remaining 120 files (in CSV) containing site-level monthly hydropower availability. Example Jupyter Notebooks to explore the HydroSMADE dataset are available on GitHub at https://github.com/kamal0013/HydroSMADE More details on the methods and technical validation of HydroSMADE are available in the following paper by the same authors: Chowdhury, A. K., Abeshu, G. W., Zhao, M., Wild, T. B., Hassan, N., Ying, Z., Kim, G. J., Matthew, B., Jonathan, L., & Li, H.-Y. (Submitted). Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites.

Existing and Potential Sites↗

Space Station Freedom electric power system availability study

The results are detailed of follow-on availability analyses performed on the Space Station Freedom electric power system (EPS). The scope includes analyses of several EPS design variations, these are: the 4-photovoltaic (PV) module baseline EPS design, a 6-PV module EPS design, and a 3-solar dynamic module EPS design which included a 10 kW PV module. The analyses performed included: determining the discrete power levels that the EPS will operate at upon various component failures and the availability of each of these operating states; ranking EPS components by the relative contribution each component type gives to the power availability of the EPS; determining the availability impacts of including structural and long-life EPS components in the availability models used in the analyses; determining optimum sparing strategies, for storing space EPS components on-orbit, to maintain high average-power-capability with low lift-mass requirements; and analyses to determine the sensitivity of EPS-availability to uncertainties in the component reliability and maintainability data used.

Turnquist, Scott R.↗

Space Station Freedom power - A reliability, availability, and maintainability assessment of the proposed Space Station Freedom electric power system

A preliminary reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analysis of the proposed Space Station Freedom electric power system (EPS) was performed using the unit reliability, availability, and maintainability (UNIRAM) analysis methodology. Orbital replacement units (ORUs) having the most significant impact on EPS availability measures were identified. Also, the sensitivity of the EPS to variations in ORU RAM data was evaluated for each ORU. Estimates were made of average EPS power output levels and availability of power to the core area of the space station. The results of assessments of the availability of EPS power and power to load distribution points in the space stations are given. Some highlights of continuing studies being performed to understand EPS availability considerations are presented.

Turnquist, S. R.↗

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Fischer, Gerd M.↗

Retrieving Aerosol in a Cloudy Environment: Aerosol Availability as a Function of Spatial and Temporal Resolution

The challenge of using satellite observations to retrieve aerosol properties in a cloudy environment is to prevent contamination of the aerosol signal from clouds, while maintaining sufficient aerosol product yield to satisfy specific applications. We investigate aerosol retrieval availability at different instrument pixel resolutions, using the standard MODIS aerosol cloud mask applied to MODIS data and a new GOES-R cloud mask applied to GOES data for a domain covering North America and surrounding oceans. Aerosol availability is not the same as the cloud free fraction and takes into account the technqiues used in the MODIS algorithm to avoid clouds, reduce noise and maintain sufficient numbers of aerosol retrievals. The inherent spatial resolution of each instrument, 0.5x0.5 km for MODIS and 1x1 km for GOES, is systematically degraded to 1x1 km, 2x2 km, 4x4 km and 8x8 km resolutions and then analyzed as to how that degradation would affect the availability of an aerosol retrieval, assuming an aerosol product resolution at 8x8 km. The results show that as pixel size increases, availability decreases until at 8x8 km 70% to 85% of the retrievals available at 0.5 km have been lost. The diurnal pattern of aerosol retrieval availability examined for one day in the summer suggests that coarse resolution sensors (i.e., 4x4 km or 8x8 km) may be able to retrieve aerosol early in the morning that would otherwise be missed at the time of current polar orbiting satellites, but not the diurnal aerosol properties due to cloud cover developed during the day. In contrast finer resolution sensors (i.e., 1x1 km or 2x2 km) have much better opportunity to retrieve aerosols in the partly cloudy scenes and better chance of returning the diurnal aerosol properties. Large differences in the results of the two cloud masks designed for MODIS aerosol and GOES cloud products strongly reinforce that cloud masks must be developed with specific purposes in mind and that a generic cloud mask applied to an independent aerosol retrieval will likely fail.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗

Advancing Our Understanding of System Availability through the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative

The PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative partners with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series data of PV production data and publishes aggregated anonymized results of system performance metrics. With an extensive dataset drawn from over 2,200 PV systems across the United States, comprising 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels, this initiative aims to ensure that systemic risks in the US PV fleet are detected. The current work explores system availability, revealing a pronounced dependence on time, especially within the initial 6 months of system performance. Following this start-up period, the average system availability stabilizes. Statistical analyses illustrate a median (P5O) monthly availability of 0.991 and a dependence on system size with a negative trend in availability with increasing system size. This finding indicates that larger systems experience lower availability compared to their smaller counterparts.

inverter availability↗

Updated Available Drawdowns for Big Hill SPR Caverns - Model Including the Caprock Fault

This report updates the estimated values of the baseline available drawdowns for the caverns at the Big Hill storage facility, and an updated table listing the available drawdowns. An updated finite element numerical analysis model, which included a fault in the caprock layers, was constructed and the daily data of actual wellhead pressures and oil-brine interfaces was used. The number of available drawdowns for each of the Big Hill SPR caverns is estimated using the new model. All caverns are predicted to have five available drawdowns remaining from a geomechanical perspective. BH-101 and 105 have a region of concern at the floor edge and/or sloping floor, where tensile and dilatant stresses are predicted to occur during each workover. The tensile state is predicted to occur because of the geometries of the edge and floor. Therefore, geomechanical examination for two caverns would be recommended after a drawdown leach. The well integrity of each cavern is not investigated in this report. The estimates for the number of baseline available drawdowns are subject to change in the future as the knowledge of physical phenomena at the sites, and the further development of the models of geomechanical behavior at the sites, evolve over time.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Root exudates induced coupled carbon and phosphorus cycling in a soil with low phosphorus availability

The amount and type of root exudates can influence P availability in the rhizosphere directly by desorption or dissolution of soil minerals, or indirectly by decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). Here this study aimed to determine the mechanisms by which specific root exudates influence the distribution and availability of P in soils with low P availability. Water, glucose, alanine, and oxalate were delivered through a simulated root into soils for 15 days. Zymography and planar optodes were used to image potential phosphatase activity, and O2 and pH distribution, respectively. Soils were analyzed for resin extractable inorganic P (Pi), dissolved organic C (DOC), water soluble Fe, and Al, and microbial community structure. Characterization of SOM and P were conducted using ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry and 31P solution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), respectively. The addition of oxalate resulted in the greatest resin extractable Pi, DOC, and water-soluble Fe, and Al compared to the other exudates suggesting destabilization of mineral associated organic matter (MAOM) and release of organic P (Po). Both 31P solution NMR and ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry analysis provided evidence of mineralization of Po released from the destabilization of MAOM. The study demonstrates the important role microbial and plant-derived metal chelating ligands play in destabilizing MAOM, releasing SOM and importantly Po, that when mineralized may contribute to increasing Pi availability in soils with low P availability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Solar Land Availability on the Evolution of the U.S. Power System

Long-term planning scenarios of the United States electricity system have not identified solar resource availability to be a limiting factor in how much solar capacity might be deployed. However, there are some smaller regions where siting challenges indicate solar deployment could be limited by solar resource availability. In this work, we use geospatial modeling tools to develop a restrictive siting scenario that significantly reduces the amount and location of utility-scale solar resources. We use that restrictive siting regime, along with other previously defined siting scenarios, to examine how solar resource availability impacts the buildout of the electricity system using business-as-usual and decarbonization futures in a national-scale capacity expansion model. The restrictive siting scenario uses observed siting pressures to exclude many types of land on which development is allowed today and results in a greater than 90% reduction in solar resource potential-to approximately 3000 GW. Even with this drastic reduction, utility-scale solar capacity grows by more than 3 times through 2050 in the business-as-usual scenarios and by more than 6 times in the decarbonization scenarios, though less solar is deployed in scenarios with lower available solar resource. We quantify how system costs and generation mixes change as solar resource availability changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗