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NASA NTRS1999

In-Flight Technique for Acquiring Mid- And Far-Field Sonic Boom Signatures

Flight test experiments have been conducted to establish the feasibility of obtaining sonic boom signature measurements below a supersonic aircraft using the NASA Portable Automatic Triggering System (PATS) mounted in the USMC Pioneer Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). This study forms a part of the NASA sonic boom minimization activities, specifically the demonstration of persistence of modified boom signatures to very large distances in a real atmosphere. The basic objective of the measurement effort was to obtain a qualitative view of the sonic boom signature in terms of its shape, number of shocks, their locations, and their relative strength. Results suggest that the technique may very well provide quantitative information relative to mid-field and far-field boom signatures. The purpose of this presentation is to describe the arrangement and operation of this in-flight system and to present the resulting sonic boom measurements. Adaption and modification of two PATS to the UAV payload section are described and include transducer location, mounting arrangement and recording system isolation. Ground static runup, takeoff and landing, and cruise flight checkouts regarding UAV propeller and flow noise on the PATS automated triggering system and recording mode are discussed. For the proof-of-concept tests, the PATS instrumented UAV was flown under radar control in steady-level flight at the altitude of 8700 feet MSL and at a cruise speed of about 60 knots. The USN F-4N sonic boom generating aircraft was vectored over the UAV on reciprocal headings at altitudes of about 1 1,000 feet MSL and 13,000 feet MSL at about Mach 1. 15. Sonic boom signatures were acquired on both PATS for all six supersonic passes. Although the UAV propeller noise is clearly evident in all the measurements, the F-4 boom signature is clearly distinguishable and is typically N-wave in character with sharply rising shock fronts and with a mid-shock associated with the inlet-wing juncture. Consideration is being given to adapting the PATS/TJAV measurements technique to the NASA Learjet to determine feasibility of acquiring in-flight boom signatures in the altitude range of 10,000 feet to 40,000 feet.

Stansbery, Eugene G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of 3D controlled ELM-free state with recovered global confinement for KSTAR with n = 1 resonant magnetic field perturbation

Mitigation of deleterious heat flux from edge-localized modes (ELMs) on fusion reactors is often attempted with 3D perturbations of the confining magnetic fields. However, the established technique of resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) also degrades plasma performance, complicating implementation on future fusion reactors. Here, we introduce an adaptive real-time control scheme on the KSTAR tokamak as a viable approach to achieve an ELM-free state and simultaneously recover high-confinement (βN ~ 1.91, β p ~ 1.53, and H 98 ~ 0.9), demonstrating successful handling of a volatile complex system through adaptive measures. We show that, by exploiting a salient hysteresis process to adaptively minimize the RMP strength, stable ELM suppression can be achieved while actively encouraging confinement recovery. This is made possible by a self-organized transport response in the plasma edge which reinforces the confinement improvement through a widening of the ion temperature pedestal and promotes control stability, in contrast to the deteriorating effect on performance observed in standard RMP experiments. These results establish the real-time approach as an up-and-coming solution toward an optimized ELM-free state, which is an important step for the operation of ITER and reactor-grade tokamak plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly inflow, dualities, and quantum simulation of Abelian lattice gauge theories induced by measurements

Previous work [] has demonstrated that quantum simulation of Abelian lattice gauge theories (Wegner models including the toric code in a limit) in general dimensions can be achieved by local adaptive measurements on symmetry-protected topological (SPT) states with higher-form generalized global symmetries. The entanglement structure of the resource SPT state reflects the geometric structure of the gauge theory. In this work we explicitly demonstrate the anomaly inflow mechanism between the deconfining phase of the simulated gauge theory on the boundary and the SPT state in the bulk by showing that the anomalous gauge variation of the boundary state obtained by bulk measurement matches that of the bulk theory. Moreover, we construct the resource state and the measurement pattern for the measurement-based quantum simulation of a lattice gauge theory with a matter field (Fradkin-Shenker model), where a simple scheme to protect gauge invariance of the simulated state against errors is proposed. We further consider taking an overlap between the wave function of the resource state for lattice gauge theories and that of a parameterized product state, and we derive precise dualities between partition functions with insertion of defects corresponding to gauging higher-form global symmetries, as well as measurement-induced phases where states induced by a partial overlap possess different (symmetry-protected) topological orders. Measurement-assisted operators to dualize quantum Hamiltonians of lattice gauge theories and their noninvertibility are also presented. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Okuda, Takuya↗

NASA NTRS2014

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functional tasks during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which each individual astronaut will be affected would improve the effectiveness of a countermeasure comprised of a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Due to this inherent individual variability we need to develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to predict, before actual space flight, which crewmember will experience challenges in adaptive capacity. Thus, obtaining this information will allow us to design and implement better sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that will be customized for each crewmember's unique adaptive capabilities. Therefore the goals of this project are to: 1) develop a set of predictive measures capable of identifying individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability, and 2) use this information to design sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that are customized for each crewmember's individual sensorimotor adaptive characteristics. To achieve these goals we are currently pursuing the following specific aims: Aim 1: Determine whether behavioral metrics of individual sensory bias predict sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, subjects perform tests that delineate individual sensory biases in tests of visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive function. Aim 2: Determine if individual capability for strategic and plastic-adaptive responses predicts sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, each subject's strategic and plastic-adaptive motor learning abilities are assessed using a test of locomotor function designed specifically to delineate both mechanisms. Aim 3: Develop predictors of sensorimotor adaptability using brain structural and functional metrics. We will measure individual differences in regional brain volumes (structural MRI), white matter integrity (diffusion tensor imaging, or DTI), functional network integrity (resting state functional connectivity MRI), and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation (functional MRI). We decided to complete the data collection for Specific Aims 1, 2 and 3 simultaneously on the same subjects to increase data capture. By having the same subjects perform all three specific aims we can enhance our ability to detect how a wider range of factors can predict adaptability in a specific individual. This provides a much richer database and potentially a better understanding of the predictive power of the selected factors. In this presentation I will discuss preliminary data obtained to date.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗

NASA NTRS1972

The visual standards for the selection and retention of astronauts, part 2

In preparation for the various studies planned for assessing visual capabilities and tasks in order to set vision standards for astronauts, the following pieces of equipment have been assembled and tested: a spectacle obstruction measuring device, a biometric glare susceptibility tester, a variable vergence amplitude testing device, an eye movement recorder, a lunar illumination simulation chamber, a night myopia testing apparatus, and retinal adaption measuring devices.

Allen, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity and income of commercial maize farms in northeast South Africa

Agriculture in South Africa sustains about 70% of the region’s population for food, income and employment, playing an important role for food security and the local economy. The focus of the study was the commercial maize farms of the Free State Province given their importance in the National economy. The Regional Integrated Assessment (phase I) was implemented to assess climate change and adaptation that links climate, crops, economic data and tools developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). In this context, the“system”is defined as a whole of agronomic and socio-economic factors. Within that framework three core questions were being evaluated: (i) Impacts of climate change under current system; (ii) Impacts of climate change under future system; (iii) The role of adaptation under climate change and the future system. Maize production will decrease between 10% to 16% as a result of projected climate impacts. Also, current agricultural production systems are negatively affected by climate change with an increase in poverty rates between 2% to 3%. The projected adoption of the adapted technology would result in positive increased net returns and a decrease in poverty rate of between 12%and 22%. The results of this study show that implementing adaptation measures and other strategies as indicated by the local stakeholders will have positive impacts on the agricultural production systems and can contribute to support and inform climate change policy decision making such as the development of National Adaptation Plans.

Integrated assessment↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measuring Cities with Software-Defined Sensors

The Chicago Array of Things (AoT) project, funded by the US National Science Foundation, created an experimental, urban-scale measurement capability to support diverse scientific studies. Initially conceived as a traditional sensor network, collaborations with many science communities guided the project to design a system that is remotely programmable to implement Artificial Intelligence (AI) within the devices-at the “edge” of the network-as a means for measuring urban factors that heretofore had only been possible with human observers, such as human behavior including social interaction. The concept of “software-defined sensors” emerged from these design discussions, opening new possibilities, such as stronger privacy protections and autonomous, adaptive measurements triggered by events or conditions. We provide examples of current and planned social and behavioral science investigations uniquely enabled by software-defined sensors as part of the SAGE project, an expanded follow-on effort that includes AoT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning for neutron reflectometry data analysis of two-layer thin films

Neutron reflectometry (NR) is a powerful tool for probing thin films at length scales down to nanometers. We investigated the use of a neural network to predict a two-layer thin film structure to model a given measured reflectivity curve. Application of this neural network to predict a thin film structure revealed that it was accurate and could provide an excellent starting point for traditional fitting methods. Employing prediction-guided fitting has considerable potential for more rapidly producing a result compared to the labor-intensive but commonly-used approach of trial and error searches prior to refinement. A deeper look at the stability of the predictive power of the neural network against statistical fluctuations of measured reflectivity profiles showed that the predictions are stable. We conclude that the approach presented here can provide valuable assistance to users of NR and should be further extended for use in studies of more complex n-layer thin film systems. This result also opens up the possibility of developing adaptive measurement systems in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct measurement of thermal Knudsen forces in rarefied gas environments

At micro- and nanoscales, momentum transfer between surfaces is influenced by various physical mechanisms, including quantum fluctuations, electromagnetic interactions, electric charges, and the dynamics of (rarefied) gases. Under non-isothermal conditions, rarefied gases give rise to thermal Knudsen forces whose magnitudes strongly depend on the gas species and surface characteristics. Knudsen forces are particularly relevant in nanotechnology, optical manipulation, and aerospace systems, where gas rarefaction occurs due to highly confined geometries, sub-micrometer length scales, and reduced particle densities. Despite their significance, predictive modeling of Knudsen forces is limited by a lack of comprehensive experimental data across diverse materials and surface morphologies. Here, in this work, we present a highly sensitive and adaptable measurement platform capable of directly quantifying Knudsen forces using a suspended, interchangeable micro-cantilever within controlled rarefied helium and nitrogen environments. The system integrates optical fiber interferometry to precisely capture out-of-plane displacements at sub-micrometer resolution, driven by Knudsen forces. From the empirical data, we derive a robust correlation linking the magnitudes of Knudsen forces to energy accommodation coefficients, offering deeper insights into the underlying gas–surface interaction mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing occupant archetypes within urban low-income housing: A case study in Mumbai, India

Rapid urbanization pressure and poverty have created a push for affordable housing within the global south. The design of affordable housing can have consequences on the thermal (dis)comfort and behaviour of the occupants, hence requiring an occupant-centric approach to ensure sustainability. This paper investigates occupant behaviour within the urban poor households of Mumbai, India and its impact on their thermal comfort and energy use. This study is a first-of-its-kind attempt to explore the socio-demographic characteristics and energy-related behaviour of low-income occupants within Indian context. Three occupant archetypes, Indifferent Consumers; Considerate Savers; and Conscious Conventionals, were identified from the behavioural and psychographic characteristics gathered through a transverse field survey. A two-step clustering approach was adopted for occupant segmentation that highlighted considerable diversity in occupants’ adaptation measures, energy knowledge, energy habits, and their pro-environmental behaviour within similar socio-economic group. Building energy simulation of the representative archetype behaviour estimated up to 37% variations for air-conditioned and up to 8% variation for fan-assisted naturally ventilated housing units during peak summer months. The results from this study establish the significance of occupant factors in shaping energy demand and thermal comfort within low-income housing and pave way for developing occupant-centric building design strategies to serve this marginalized population. The developed low-income occupant archetypes would be useful for architects and energy modelers to generate realistic energy use profiles and improve building performance simulation results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

River Regulation Alleviates the Impacts of Climate Change on US Thermoelectricity Production

Climate change and anthropogenic activities can both influence stream temperature, which is a critical indicator of thermoelectric power generation potential. Previous studies emphasized the vulnerability of power-generation systems to climate warming (ref 1, 2). Despite the fact that two-thirds of the global rivers are regulated by dams (ref 3), the relative impacts of water management and climate change on stream temperature and thermoelectric production have not yet been evaluated. Using an integrated modeling system applied to the conterminous United States, simulations confirm the dominant role of climate change in shaping the future trends of stream temperature. However, water management, reservoir regulation in particular, can mitigate the stream temperature warming and reduce the frequency and magnitude of extreme high stream temperatures through redistribution of the seasonal streamflow. Moreover, water management can alleviate the loss of power plant usable capacity from climate change to the level of reduced warming from emission mitigation. By regulating the flow and temperature regimes, water management is a promising adaptation measure to alleviate climate change induced effects in the water-energy nexus.

Zhang, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

South Asia (SA) is one of those hotspots where earliest exposure to deadly wet-bulb temperatures (Tw >35°C) is projected in warmer future climates. Here we find that even today parts of SA experience the upper limits of labor productivity (Tw >32°C) or human survivability (Tw >35°C), indicating that previous estimates for future exposure to Tw-based extremes may be conservative. Our results show that at 2°C global warming above pre-industrial levels, the per person exposure approximately increases by 2.2 (2.7) folds for unsafe labor (lethal) threshold compared to the 2006–2015 reference period. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid about half that impact. The population growth under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic pathway could further increase these exposures by a factor of ~2 by the mid-century. These results indicate an imminent need for adaptation measures, while highlighting the importance of stringent Paris-compatible mitigation actions for limiting future emergence of such conditions in SA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗