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Trajectory Assessment and Modification Tools for Next Generation Air Traffic Management Operations

This paper reviews three Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) based high fidelity air traffic control human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations, with a focus on the expected requirement of enhanced automated trajectory assessment and modification tools to support future air traffic flow management (ATFM) planning positions. The simulations were conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Centers Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) in 2009 and 2010. The test airspace for all three simulations assumed the mid-term NextGenEn-Route high altitude environment utilizing high altitude sectors from the Kansas City and Memphis Air Route Traffic Control Centers. Trajectory assessment, modification and coordination decision support tools were developed at the AOL in order to perform future ATFM tasks. Overall tool usage results and user acceptability ratings were collected across three areas of NextGen operatoins to evaluate the tools. In addition to the usefulness and usability feedback, feasibility issues, benefits, and future requirements were also addressed. Overall, the tool sets were rated very useful and usable, and many elements of the tools received high scores and were used frequently and successfully. Tool utilization results in all three HITLs showed both user and system benefits including better airspace throughput, reduced controller workload, and highly effective communication protocols in both full Data Comm and mixed-equipage environments.

Brasil, Connie↗

Evaluation of the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid and Lat-Long Grid for Air Traffic Management

The Air Traffic Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (ATMLG) is used to simulate a 24 hour period of air traffic flow in the National Airspace System (NAS). During this time period, there are 41,594 flights over the United States, and the flight plan information (departure and arrival airports and times, and waypoints along the way) are obtained from an Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) dataset. Two simulation procedures are tested and compared: one based on the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (MLG), and the other based on the stationary Latitude-Longitude (Lat- Long) grid. Simulating one full day of air traffic over the United States required the following amounts of CPU time on a single processor of an SGI Altix: 88 s for the MLG method, and 163 s for the Lat-Long grid method. We present a discussion of the amount of CPU time required for each of the simulation processes (updating aircraft trajectories, sorting, conflict detection and resolution, etc.), and show that the main advantage of the MLG method is that it is a general sorting algorithm that can sort on multiple properties. We discuss how many MLG neighbors must be considered in the separation assurance procedure in order to ensure a five-mile separation buffer between aircraft, and we investigate the effect of removing waypoints from aircraft trajectories. When aircraft choose their own trajectory, there are more flights with shorter duration times and fewer CD&R maneuvers, resulting in significant fuel savings.

Kaplan, Carolyn↗

Systems simulation for an airport trailing vortex warning system

The approach, development, and limited system studies associated with a system simulation for an Airport Trailing Vortex Warning System are documented. The usefulness is shown of a systems engineering approach to the problem of developing a system, as dictated by aircraft vortices, which will increase air-traffic flow in the takeoff/landing corridors of busy airports while maintaining the required safety factor for each operation. The simulation program has been developed in a modular form which permits new, more sophisticated component models, when they become available and are required, to be incorporated into the program with a minimum of program modifications. This report documents a limited system study that has been performed using this Total System Simulation Model. The resulting preliminary system requirements, conclusions, and recommendations are given.

Jeffreys, H. B.↗

Studies of uncontrolled air traffic patterns, phase 1

The general aviation air traffic flow patterns at uncontrolled airports are investigated and analyzed and traffic pattern concepts are developed to minimize the midair collision hazard in uncontrolled airspace. An analytical approach to evaluate midair collision hazard probability as a function of traffic densities is established which is basically independent of path structure. Two methods of generating space-time interrelationships between terminal area aircraft are presented; one is a deterministic model to generate pseudorandom aircraft tracks, the other is a statistical model in preliminary form. Some hazard measures are presented for selected traffic densities. It is concluded that the probability of encountering a hazard should be minimized independently of any other considerations and that the number of encounters involving visible-avoidable aircraft should be maximized at the expense of encounters in other categories.

Baxa, E. G., Jr.↗

Time controlled descent guidance algorithm for simulation of advanced ATC systems

Concepts and computer algorithms for generating time controlled four dimensional descent trajectories are described. The algorithms were implemented in the air traffic control simulator and used by experienced controllers in studies of advanced air traffic flow management procedures. A time controlled descent trajectory comprises a vector function of time, including position, altitude, and heading, that starts at the initial position of the aircraft and ends at touchdown. The trajectory provides a four dimensional reference path which will cause an aircraft tracking it to touchdown at a predetermined time with a minimum of fuel consumption. The problem of constructing such trajectories is divided into three subproblems involving synthesis of horizontal, vertical, and speed profiles. The horizontal profile is constructed as a sequence of turns and straight lines passing through a specified set of waypoints. The vertical profile consists of a sequence of level flight and constant descent angle segments defined by altitude waypoints. The speed profile is synthesized as a sequence of constant Mach number, constant indicated airspeed, and acceleration/deceleration legs. It is generated by integrating point mass differential equations of motion, which include the thrust and drag models of the aircraft.

Lee, H. Q.↗

Facility requirements for cockpit traffic display research

It is pointed out that much research is being conducted regarding the use of a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) for safe and efficient air traffic flow. A CDTI is a graphic display which shows the pilot the position of other aircraft relative to his or her aircraft. The present investigation is concerned with the facility requirements for the CDTI research. The facilities currently used for this research vary in fidelity from one CDTI-equipped simulator with computer-generated traffic, to four simulators with autopilot-like controls, all having a CDTI. Three groups of subjects were employed in the conducted study. Each of the groups included one controller, and three airline and four general aviation pilots.

Chappell, S. L.↗

Integrated multisensor navigation systems

The multisensor navigation systems research evolved from the availability of several stand alone navigation systems and the growing concern for aircraft navigation reliability and safety. The intent is to develop a multisensor navigation system during the next decade that will be capable of providing reliable aircraft position data. These data will then be transmitted directly, or by satellite, to surveillance centers to aid the process of air traffic flow control. In order to satisfy the requirements for such a system, the following issues need to be examined: performance, coverage, reliability, availability, and integrity. The presence of a multisensor navigation system in all aircraft will improve safety for the aviation community and allow for more economical operation.

Vangraas, Frank↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Ground-Holding Strategies

The Ground-Holding Policy Problem (GHPP) has become a matter of great interest in recent years because of the high cost incurred by aircraft suffering from delays. Ground-holding keeps a flight on the ground at the departure airport if it is known it will be unable to land at the arrival airport. The GBPP is determining how many flights should be held on the ground before take-off and for how long, in order to minimize the cost of delays. When the uncertainty associated with airport landing capacity is considered, the GHPP becomes complicated. A decision support system that incorporates this uncertainty, solves the GHPP quickly, and gives good results would be of great help to air traffic management. The purpose of this thesis is to modify and analyze a probabilistic ground-holding algorithm by applying it to two common cases of capacity reduction. A graphical user interface was developed and sensitivity analysis was done on the algorithm, in order to see how it may be implemented in practice. The sensitivity analysis showed the algorithm was very sensitive to the number of probabilistic capacity scenarios used and to the cost ratio of air delay to ground delay. The algorithm was not particularly sensitive to the number of periods that the time horizon was divided into. In terms of cost savings, a ground-holding policy was the most beneficial when demand greatly exceeded airport capacity. When compared to other air traffic flow strategies, the ground-holding algorithm performed the best and was the most consistent under various situations. The algorithm can solve large problems quickly and efficiently on a personal computer.

Sheel, Minakshi↗

Considerations in the Integration of Small Aircraft Transportation System Higher Volume Operations (SATSHVO) in the National Airspace System (NAS)

The Small Aircraft Transportation System Higher Volume Operations (SATS HVO) concept holds the promise for increased efficiency and throughput at many of the nations under-used airports. This concept allows for concurrent operations at uncontrolled airports that under today s procedures are restricted to one arrival or one departure operation at a time, when current-day IFR separation standards are applied. To allow for concurrent operations, SATS HVO proposes several fundamental changes to today's system. These changes include: creation of dedicated airspace, development of new procedures and communications (phraseologies), and assignment of roles and responsibilities for pilots and controllers, among others. These changes would affect operations on the airborne side (pilot) as well as the groundside (controller and air traffic flow process). The focus of this paper is to discuss some of the issues and potential problems that have been considered in the development of the SATS HVO concept, in particular from the ground side perspective. Reasonable solutions to the issues raised here have been proposed by the SATS HVO team, and are discussed in this paper.

Lohr, Gary W.↗

Delay Banking for Managing Air Traffic

Delay banking has been invented to enhance air-traffic management in a way that would increase the degree of fairness in assigning arrival, departure, and en-route delays and trajectory deviations to aircraft impacted by congestion in the national airspace system. In delay banking, an aircraft operator (airline, military, general aviation, etc.) would be assigned a numerical credit when any of their flights are delayed because of an air-traffic flow restriction. The operator could subsequently bid against other operators competing for access to congested airspace to utilize part or all of its accumulated credit. Operators utilize credits to obtain higher priority for the same flight, or other flights operating at the same time, or later, in the same airspace, or elsewhere. Operators could also trade delay credits, according to market rules that would be determined by stakeholders in the national airspace system. Delay banking would be administered by an independent third party who would use delay banking automation to continually monitor flights, allocate delay credits, maintain accounts of delay credits for participating airlines, mediate bidding and the consumption of credits of winning bidders, analyze potential transfers of credits within and between operators, implement accepted transfers, and ensure fair treatment of all participating operators. A flow restriction can manifest itself in the form of a delay in assigned takeoff time, a reduction in assigned airspeed, a change in the position for the aircraft in a queue of all aircraft in a common stream of traffic (e.g., similar route), a change in the planned altitude profile for an aircraft, or change in the planned route for the aircraft. Flow restrictions are typically imposed to mitigate traffic congestion at an airport or in a region of airspace, particularly congestion due to inclement weather, or the unavailability of a runway or region of airspace. A delay credit would be allocated to an operator of a flight that has accepted, or upon which was imposed, a flow restriction. The amount of the credit would increase with the amount of delay caused by the flow restriction, the exact amount depending on which of several candidate formulas is eventually chosen. For example, according to one formula, there would be no credit for a delay smaller than some threshold value (e.g., 30 seconds) and the amount of the credit for a longer delay would be set at the amount of the delay minus the threshold value. Optionally, the value of a delay credit could be made to decay with time according to a suitable formula (e.g., an exponential decay). Also, optionally, a transaction charge could be assessed against the value of a delay credit that an operator used on a flight different from the one for which the delay originated or that was traded with a different operator. The delay credits accumulated by a given airline could be utilized in various ways. For example, an operator could enter a bid for priority handling in a new flow restriction that impacts one or more of the operator s flights; if the bid were unsuccessful, all or a portion of the credit would be returned to the bidder. If the bid pertained to a single aircraft that was in a queue, delay credits could be consumed in moving the aircraft to an earlier position within the queue. In the case of a flow restriction involving a choice of alternate routes, planned altitude profile, aircraft spacing, or other non-queue flow restrictions, delay credits could be used to bid for an alternative assignment.

Green, Steve↗

NASA Airspace Systems Environmentally Focused Research

This slide presentation focuses on how the Next Generation Air Space System can assist in reducing environmental pollution and reduced fuel consumption. By modifying some of the current aviation practices such as the dive and drive descent and making more efficient air traffic flow, the new system can assist in noise reduction, emissions reductions and reduce delays in routing and improve operational efficiency

Cavolowsky, John↗

The Monotonic Lagrangian Grid for Rapid Air-Traffic Evaluation

The Air Traffic Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (ATMLG) is presented as a tool to evaluate new air traffic system concepts. The model, based on an algorithm called the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (MLG), can quickly sort, track, and update positions of many aircraft, both on the ground (at airports) and in the air. The underlying data structure is based on the MLG, which is used for sorting and ordering positions and other data needed to describe N moving bodies and their interactions. Aircraft that are close to each other in physical space are always near neighbors in the MLG data arrays, resulting in a fast nearest-neighbor interaction algorithm that scales as N. Recent upgrades to ATMLG include adding blank place-holders within the MLG data structure, which makes it possible to dynamically change the MLG size and also improves the quality of the MLG grid. Additional upgrades include adding FAA flight plan data, such as way-points and arrival and departure times from the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS), and combining the MLG with the state-of-the-art strategic and tactical conflict detection and resolution algorithms from the NASA-developed Stratway software. In this paper, we present results from our early efforts to couple ATMLG with the Stratway software, and we demonstrate that it can be used to quickly simulate air traffic flow for a very large ETMS dataset.

Kaplan, Carolyn↗

Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.

Ng, Hok K.↗

Optimizing Flight Departure Delay and Route Selection Under En Route Convective Weather

This paper presents a linear Integer Programming model for managing air traffic flow in the United States. The decision variables in the model are departure delays and predeparture reroutes of aircraft whose trajectories are predicted to cross weather-impacted regions of the National Airspace System. The model assigns delays to a set of flights while ensuring their trajectories are free of any conflicts with weather. In a deterministic setting, there is no airborne holding due to unexpected weather incursion in a flight s path. The model is applied to solve a large-scale traffic flow management problem with realistic weather data and flight schedules. Experimental results indicate that allowing rerouting can reduce departure delays by nearly 57%, but it is associated with an increase in total airborne time due to longer routes flown by aircraft. The computation times to solve this problem were significantly lower than those reported in the earlier studies.

Mukherjee, Avijit↗

Evaluation of Flight Deck-Based Interval Management Crew Procedure Feasibility

Air traffic demand is predicted to increase over the next 20 years, creating a need for new technologies and procedures to support this growth in a safe and efficient manner. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD-1) will operationally demonstrate the feasibility of efficient arrival operations combining ground-based and airborne NASA technologies. The integration of these technologies will increase throughput, reduce delay, conserve fuel, and minimize environmental impacts. The ground-based tools include Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering for precise time-based scheduling and Controller Managed Spacing decision support tools for better managing aircraft delay with speed control. The core airborne technology in ATD-1 is Flight deck-based Interval Management (FIM). FIM tools provide pilots with speed commands calculated using information from Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast. The precise merging and spacing enabled by FIM avionics and flight crew procedures will reduce excess spacing buffers and result in higher terminal throughput. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ATD-1 procedures used in a voice communications environment. This experiment utilized the ATD-1 integrated system of ground-based and airborne technologies. Pilot participants flew a high-fidelity fixed base simulator equipped with an airborne spacing algorithm and a FIM crew interface. Experiment scenarios involved multiple air traffic flows into the Dallas-Fort Worth Terminal Radar Control airspace. Results indicate that the proposed procedures were feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment. The delivery accuracy at the achieve-by point was within +/- five seconds and the delivery precision was less than five seconds. Furthermore, FIM speed commands occurred at a rate of less than one per minute, and pilots found the frequency of the speed commands to be acceptable at all times throughout the experiment scenarios.

Wilson, Sara R.↗

Benefits Assessment for Tactical Runway Configuration Management Tool

The Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM) software tool was developed to provide air traffic flow managers and supervisors with recommendations for airport configuration changes and runway usage. The objective for this study is to conduct a benefits assessment at Memphis (MEM), Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) and New York's John F. Kennedy (JFK) airports using the TRCM tool. Results from simulations using the TRCM-generated runway configuration schedule are compared with results using historical schedules. For the 12 days of data used in this analysis, the transit time (arrival fix to spot on airport movement area for arrivals, or spot to departure fix for departures) for MEM departures is greater (7%) than for arrivals (3%); for JFK, there is a benefit for arrivals (9%) but not for departures (-2%); for DFW, arrivals show a slight benefit (1%), but this is offset by departures (-2%). Departure queue length benefits show fewer aircraft in queue for JFK (29%) and MEM (11%), but not for DFW (-13%). Fuel savings for surface operations at MEM are seen for both arrivals and departures. At JFK there are fuel savings for arrivals, but these are offset by increased fuel use for departures. In this study, no surface fuel benefits resulted for DFW. Results suggest that the TRCM algorithm requires modifications for complex surface traffic operations that can cause taxi delays. For all three airports, the average number of changes in flow direction (runway configuration) recommended by TRCM was many times greater than the historical data; TRCM would need to be adapted to a particular airport's needs, to limit the number of changes to acceptable levels. The results from this analysis indicate the TRCM tool can provide benefits at some high-capacity airports. The magnitude of these benefits depends on many airport-specific factors and would require adaptation of the TRCM tool; a detailed assessment is needed prior to determining suitability for a particular airport.

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa↗

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗

Efficient Trajectory Options Allocation for the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) intended to control the air traffic flow rates at multiple specified Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs), where demand exceeds capacity. CTOP allows flight operators to submit the desired Trajectory Options Set (TOS) for each affected flight with associated Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) for each option. CTOP then creates a feasible schedule that complies with capacity constraints by assigning affected flights with routes and departure delays in such a way as to minimize the total cost while maintaining equity across flight operators. The current version of CTOP implements a Ration-by-Schedule (RBS) scheme, which assigns the best available options to flights based on a First-Scheduled-First-Served heuristic. In the present study, an alternative flight scheduling approach is developed based on linear optimization. Results suggest that such an approach can significantly reduce flight delays, in the deterministic case, while maintaining equity as defined using a Max-Min fairness scheme.

Traffic Management Initiative (TMI)↗