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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Science Personality and STEM Ambassador

Dr. Amy Elliott has had unique opportunities to serve as a STEM role model through her various media production projects. Her debut on screen was as a competitor on an engineering reality show competition called “The Big Brain Theory,” aired by The Discovery Channel. Following this competition, Dr. Elliott served as an on-camera host for RoboNation’s water-based, annual collegiate competitions and for The Science Channel’s viral video show, “Outrageous Acts of Science.” Dr. Elliott also serves as volunteer pit-crew for Green Envy Racing, a woman-lead race team that seeks to set and speed records with electric motorcycles. Because of Dr. Elliott’s public exposure, she was selected as an IF/THEN Ambassador by the American Associate for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), a program that seeks to highlight women as STEM role models. Dr. Elliott’s work in 3D printing is frequently a source of inspiration for her.

Elliott, Amy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Daily modulations and broadband strategy in axion searches: An application with the CAST-CAPP detector

It has been previously advocated that the presence of the daily and annual modulations of the axion flux on the Earth’s surface may dramatically change the strategy of the axion searches. The arguments were based on the so-called Axion Quark Nugget (AQN) dark matter model which was originally put forward to explain the similarity of the dark and visible cosmological matter densities Ω dark ∼ Ω visible . In this framework, the population of galactic axions with mass 10 − 6 eV ≲ m a ≲ 10 − 3 eV and velocity ⟨ v a ⟩ ∼ 10 − 3 c will be accompanied by axions with typical velocities ⟨ v a ⟩ ∼ 0.6 c emitted by AQNs. Furthermore, in this framework, it has also been argued that the AQN-induced axion daily modulation (in contrast with the conventional weakly interactive massive particle paradigm) could be as large as (10–20)%, representing the main motivation for the present investigation. We argue that the daily modulations along with the broadband detection strategy can be very useful tools for the discovery of such relativistic axions. The data from the CAST-CAPP detector have been used following such arguments. Unfortunately, due to the dependence of the amplifier chain on temperature-dependent gain drifts and other factors, we could not conclusively show the presence or absence of a dark sector-originated daily modulation. However, this proof of principle analysis procedure can serve as a reference for future studies. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Caspers, F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A red algal polysaccharide influences the multicellular development of the choanoflagellate Salpingoeca rosetta

The choanoflagellate Salpingoeca rosetta exemplifies the capacity of marine microeukaryotes to integrate environmental cues into their life histories. Some of the cues that S. rosetta detects are lipids from their bacterial prey that induce the development of multicellular colonies called rosettes. In the aquatic environments where S. rosetta would encounter bacterial cues, microbial communities gain refuge and food from algae. For example, microbes in coastal environments benefit from macroalgae that annually release ∼10 14 g of carbon, primarily in the form of polysaccharides that comprise ∼80% of dissolved organic carbon in surface waters. Despite the ecological impact of algae and historical descriptions of choanoflagellates attached to algae, the influence of algae on choanoflagellate life history transitions has remained unexplored. Here, we report that porphyran, a polysaccharide produced by the red macroalga Porphyra umbilicalis, induces multicellular development in S. rosetta. We first noticed this response when S. rosetta formed multicellular rosette colonies while growing in media prepared from P. umbilicalis, even though rosette-inducing bacteria were absent. By biochemically purifying extracts of P. umbilicalis, we identified porphyran as the rosette-inducing factor. This response provides a biochemical insight that indicates algal polysaccharides may serve as cues to mediate associations between choanoflagellates and algae. Moreover, this observation complements evidence from environmental and geochemical studies that show the impact that algae have exerted on the ecology and evolution of eukaryotes, including a rise in algal productivity during the origin of animals, the closest living relatives of choanoflagellates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nitrogen availability and summer drought, but not N:P imbalance, drive carbon use efficiency of a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem

All ecosystems contain both sources and sinks for atmospheric carbon (C). A change in their balance of net and gross ecosystem carbon uptake, ecosystem-scale carbon use efficiency (CUE ECO ), is a change in their ability to buffer climate change. However, anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is increasing N availability, potentially shifting terrestrial ecosystem stoichiometry towards phosphorus (P) limitation. Depending on how gross primary production (GPP, plants alone) and ecosystem respiration (R ECO , plants and heterotrophs) are limited by N, P or associated changes in other biogeochemical cycles, CUE ECO may change. Seasonally, CUE ECO also varies as the multiple processes that control GPP and respiration and their limitations shift in time. We worked in a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem (locally called ‘dehesa’) characterized by mild, wet winters and summer droughts. We examined CUE ECO from eddy covariance fluxes over 6 years under control, +N and + NP fertilized treatments on three timescales: annual, seasonal (determined by vegetation phenological phases) and 14-day aggregations. Finer aggregation allowed consideration of responses to specific patterns in vegetation activity and meteorological conditions. We predicted that CUE ECO should be increased by wetter conditions, and successively by N and NP fertilization. Milder and wetter years with proportionally longer growing seasons increased CUE ECO , as did N fertilization, regardless of whether P was added. Using a generalized additive model, whole ecosystem phenological status and water deficit indicators, which both varied with treatment, were the main determinants of 14-day differences in CUE ECO . The direction of water effects depended on the timescale considered and occurred alongside treatment-dependent water depletion. Overall, future regional trends of longer dry summers may push these systems towards lower CUE ECO .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

From Farm to Flight: CoverCress as a Low Carbon Intensity Cash Cover Crop for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production. A Review of Progress Towards Commercialization

Thlaspi arvense L. (Field Pennycress; pennycress) is being converted into a winter-annual oilseed crop that confers cover crop benefits when grown throughout the 12 million-hectares U.S. Midwest. To ensure a fit with downstream market demand, conversion involves not only improvements in yield and maturity through traditional breeding, but also improvements in the composition of the oil and protein through gene editing tools. The conversion process is similar to the path taken to convert rapeseed into Canola. In the case of field pennycress, the converted product that is suitable as a rotational crop is called CoverCress™ as marketed by CoverCress Inc. or golden pennycress if marketed by others. Off-season integration of a CoverCress crop into existing corn and soybean hectares would extend the growing season on established croplands and avoid displacement of food crops or ecosystems while yielding up to 1 billion liters of seed oil annually by 2030, with the potential to grow to 8 billion liters from production in the U.S. Midwest alone. The aviation sector is committed to carbon-neutral growth and reducing emissions of its global market, which in 2019 approached 122 billion liters of consumption in the U.S. and 454 billion liters globally. The oil derived from a CoverCress crop is ideally suited as a new bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, biodiesel and other value-added coproducts. Through a combination of breeding and genomics-enabled mutagenesis approaches, considerable progress has been made in genetically improving yield and other agronomic traits. With USDA-NIFA funding and continued public and private investments, improvements to CoverCress germplasm and agronomic practices suggest that field-scale production can surpass 1,680 kg ha -1 (1,500 lb ac -1 ) in the near term. At current commodity prices, economic modeling predicts this level of production can be profitable across the entire supply chain. Two-thirds of the grain value is in oil converted to fuels and chemicals, and the other one-third is in the meal used as an animal feed, industrial applications, and potential plant-based protein products. In addition to strengthening rural communities by providing income to producers and agribusinesses, cultivating a CoverCress crop potentially offers a myriad of ecosystem services. The most notable service is water quality protection through reduced nutrient leaching and reduced soil erosion. Biodiversity enhancement by supporting pollinators’ health is also a benefit. While the efforts described herein are focused on the U.S., cultivation of a CoverCress crop will likely have a broader application to regions around the world with similar agronomic and environmental conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning-guided descriptor selection for predicting corrosion resistance in multi-principal element alloys

More than $270 billion is spent on combatting corrosion annually in the USA alone. As such, we present a machine-learning (ML) approach to down select corrosion-resistant alloys. Our focus is on a non-traditional class of alloys called multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs). Given the vast search space due to the variety of compositions and descriptors to be considered, and based upon existing corrosion data for MPEAs, we demonstrate descriptor optimization to predict corrosion resistance of any given MPEA. Our ML model with descriptor optimization predicts the corrosion resistance of a given MPEA in the presence of an aqueous environment by down selecting two environmental descriptors (pH of the medium and halide concentration), one chemical composition descriptor (atomic % of element with minimum reduction potential), and two atomic descriptors (difference in lattice constant (Δa) and average reduction potential). Our findings show that, while it is possible to down select corrosion-resistant MPEAs by using ML from a large search space, a larger dataset and higher quality data are needed to accurately predict the corrosion rate of MPEAs. This study shows both the promise and the perils of ML when applied to a complex chemical phenomenon like corrosion of alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gauges, loops, and polynomials for partition functions of graphical models

Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is #P-hard that is of an exponential complexity with respect to the number of variables. Here, aimed at approximating the partition function, we consider multi-graph models where binary variables and multivariable factors are associated with edges and nodes, respectively, of an undirected multi-graph. We suggest a new methodology for analysis and computations that combines the Gauge function technique from Chertkov and Chernyak with the technique developed in Anari and Oveis Gharan 2017 arXiv:1702.02937; Gurvits 2011 arXiv:1106.2844; Straszak and Vishnoi 2017 55th Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing, based on the recent progress in the field of real stable polynomials. We show that the Gauge function, representing a single-out term in a finite sum expression for the partition function which achieves extremum at the so-called belief-propagation gauge, has a natural polynomial representation in terms of gauges/variables associated with edges of the multi-graph. Moreover, Gauge function can be used to recover the partition function through a sequence of transformations allowing appealing algebraic and graphical interpretations. Algebraically, one step in the sequence consists of the application of a differential operator over gauges associated with an edge. Graphically, the sequence is interpreted as a repetitive elimination/contraction of edges resulting in multi-graph models on decreasing in size (number of edges) graphs with the same partition function as in the original multi-graph model. Even though the complexity of computing factors in the sequence of the derived multi-graph models and respective Gauge functions grow exponentially with the number of eliminated edges, polynomials associated with the new factors remain bi-stable if the original factors have this property. Moreover, we show that BP estimations in the sequence do not decrease, each low-bounding the partition function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20 th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x10 17 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 10 16 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90 Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90 Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02–4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78–2.9).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wake steering optimization under uncertainty

Turbines in wind power plants experience significant power losses when wakes from upstream turbines affect the energy production of downstream turbines. A promising plant-level control strategy to reduce these losses is wake steering, where upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. However, there are significant uncertainties in many aspects of the wake steering problem. For example, infield sensors do not give perfect information, and inflow to the plant is complex and difficult to forecast with available information, even over short time periods. Here, we formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for determining optimal plant-level wake steering strategies in the presence of independent uncertainties in the direction, speed, turbulence intensity, and shear of the incoming wind, as well as in turbine yaw positions. The OUU wake steering strategy is first examined for a two-turbine test case to explore the impacts of different types of inflow uncertainties, and it is then demonstrated for a more realistic 11-turbine wind power plant. Of the sources of uncertainty considered, we find that wake steering strategies are most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind speed and direction. When maximizing expected power production, the OUU strategy also tends to favor smaller yaw angles, which have been shown in previous work to reduce turbine loading. Ultimately, the plant-level wake steering strategy formulated using an OUU approach yields 0.48?% more expected annual energy production for the 11-turbine wind plant than a strategy that neglects uncertainty when considering stochastic inputs. Thus, not only does the present OUU strategy produce more power in realistic conditions, but it also reduces risk by prescribing strategies that call for less extreme yaw angles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel transient infrared imaging method for non-intrusive, low-cost, fast, and accurate air leakage detection in building envelopes

Air leakage through the building envelope in the U.S. accounts for about four quads of energy annually, costing approximately $40 billion per year. However, a high-fidelity and non-intrusive method to detect air leakage has not been demonstrated to date. Here, in this paper, we propose a novel non-intrusive and low-cost method called Transient Infrared (IR) Imaging (TIRI) that can rapidly and accurately identify air leakage locations and relative rates on building envelopes. When the interior and exterior temperatures are different, and a small internal pressure pulse is created by HVAC, the temperature at locations with air leakages will change rapidly, while the areas without a leakage do not change. Based on a heat transfer model, we have derived the temperature change as a function of time after the HVAC is turned on. By tracking the temperature change, which depends on leakage rate and size, we have obtained the air leakage map in the case studies. Using an exterior door as an example, we took transient IR images in different seasons and different times of the day, and successfully obtained the leakage map in all the scenarios. Successfully obtained the air leakage map even when the indoor-outdoor air temperature difference is as small as 2 °C. We have also realized a detection speed of 10s and demonstrated that this method also worked for windows, which have mirror-like IR reflections. Our TIRI method will accelerate the improvement of airtightness in buildings, save building energy, and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating China’s Passenger Vehicle Market under the Vehicle Policies of 2021–2023

China is well known for its determination on large-scale vehicle electrification, which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies mixed with the extensive charging infrastructure support and monetary incentives from the government. This study adopted the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model 2020 version, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in order to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation”, which is a revised version released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021–2023, the so-called dual credit policy (2021–2023). It was found that, under the dual credit policy (2021–2023), the sales of hybrid electric vehicles could reach 0.91 million by the end of 2023, which would increase much faster than they did in 2018–2020. The annual sales share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.7%, and the PEV stocks could achieve 11.70 million by the end of 2023 if it keeps the expansion to the level of how it was in 2017. In addition, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plug-in hybrid electric SUVs could be the most popular PEV types.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of encapsulin nanocompartment systems as ascaffold for biomaterials synthesis in Rhodococcus species (DOE ECRP Annual Report 2023)

Engineered protein compartmentalization systems hold significant promise to enhance reaction efficiencies through co-localization, concentration, and sequestration of biosynthetic pathways. As such, they have the potential to enable the bioproduction of next generation bioproducts and biomaterials in genetically engineered microbes in support of DOE’s mission to build a strong bioeconomy. Among systems of particular interest are protein nanocompartment systems called encapsulins that are natively produced by a variety of bacteria including those with a high potential for bioproduction. This ECRP project is focused on understanding how encapsulins can be used to enhance the biosynthesis of next-generation biomaterials in Rhodococcus species. Specifically, we seek: (1) to probe the mechanistic basis for how these compartments are regulated, biosynthesized, and maintained, and (2) to engineer these systems to achieve new biosynthetic functions (e.g., CdS nanoparticle biosynthesis). We anticipate that this work will establish encapsulin compartmentalization systems as a means of improving yields and enabling biosynthetic routes toward new biomaterials, thus advancing the U.S. bioeconomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of encapsulin nanocompartment systems as a scaffold for biomaterials synthesis in Rhodococcus species (Annual Report 2025)

Engineered protein compartmentalization systems hold significant promise to enhance reaction efficiencies through co-localization, concentration, and sequestration of biosynthetic pathways. As such, they have the potential to enable the bioproduction of next generation bioproducts and biomaterials in genetically engineered microbes in support of DOE’s mission to build a strong bioeconomy. Among systems of particular interest are protein nanocompartment systems called encapsulins that are natively produced by a variety of bacteria including those with a high potential for bioproduction. This ECRP project is focused on understanding how encapsulins can be used to enhance the biosynthesis of next-generation biomaterials in Rhodococcus species. Specifically, we seek: (1) to probe the mechanistic basis for how these compartments are regulated, biosynthesized, and maintained, and (2) to engineer these systems to achieve new biosynthetic functions (e.g., alkene, inorganic nanoparticle biosynthesis). We anticipate that this work will establish encapsulin compartmentalization systems as a means of improving yields and enabling biosynthetic routes toward new biomaterials, thus advancing the U.S. bioeconomy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of encapsulin nanocompartment systems as a scaffold for biomaterials synthesis in Rhodococcus species (Annual Report 2025)

Engineered protein compartmentalization systems hold significant promise to enhance reaction efficiencies through co-localization, concentration, and sequestration of biosynthetic pathways. As such, they have the potential to enable the bioproduction of next generation bioproducts and biomaterials in genetically engineered microbes in support of DOE’s mission to build a strong bioeconomy. Among systems of particular interest are protein nanocompartment systems called encapsulins that are natively produced by a variety of bacteria including those with a high potential for bioproduction. This ECRP project is focused on understanding how encapsulins can be used to enhance the biosynthesis of next-generation biomaterials in Rhodococcus species. Specifically, we seek: (1) to probe the mechanistic basis for how these compartments are regulated, biosynthesized, and maintained, and (2) to engineer these systems to achieve new biosynthetic functions (e.g., alkene, inorganic nanoparticle biosynthesis). We anticipate that this work will establish encapsulin compartmentalization systems as a means of improving yields and enabling biosynthetic routes toward new biomaterials, thus advancing the U.S. bioeconomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Indexing habitat opportunity for juvenile anadromous fishes in tidal-fluvial wetland systems

In intertidal wetlands, annual habitat use by migrating juvenile salmon is limited by both physical and biological constraints. Physical limits are set by inundation patterns and water quality parameters, while biological bounds are determined by species specific migration timing and seasonal residency behaviors. We developed a new metric called the fish habitat opportunity index (FHOI) to quantify the total time per calendar year that salmon could access intertidal sites, based on periods of inundation and juvenile salmon seasonal migration. The index was applied using data collected at a recently reconnected tidal freshwater wetland area during 2006-2009. We found the wetland to be accessible to different salmon species for different lengths of time and periods of the year. On average, chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) had remarkably consistent opportunities to use marsh habitat over the 4 years sampled, while opportunities were more variable for Chinook (O. tshawytscha), and coho salmon (O. kisutch). Inundation varied nonlinearly with tidal height, and fish had access to the productive marsh edge for approximately 40-50% of the time during periods of access. The FHOI is widely applicable to wetland systems throughout the tidal fluvial continuum, and provides a metric for assessing fish habitat opportunity that is more realistic than simple wetted area calculations. Finally, the FHOI affords a method of a priori comparison among potential restoration sites to help resource managers predict the likely relative benefit to juvenile salmon.

wetland restoration, estuary, habitat opportunity,↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recycling of multilayer plastic packaging materials by solvent-targeted recovery and precipitation

Many plastic packaging materials manufactured today are composites made of distinct polymer layers (i.e., multilayer films). Billions of pounds of these multilayer films are produced annually, but manufacturing inefficiencies result in large, corresponding postindustrial waste streams. Although relatively clean (as opposed to municipal wastes) and of near-constant composition, no commercially practiced technologies exist to fully deconstruct postindustrial multilayer film wastes into pure, recyclable polymers. Here, we demonstrate a unique strategy we call solvent-targeted recovery and precipitation (STRAP) to deconstruct multilayer films into their constituent resins using a series of solvent washes that are guided by thermodynamic calculations of polymer solubility. We show that the STRAP process is able to separate three representative polymers (polyethylene, ethylene vinyl alcohol, and polyethylene terephthalate) from a commercially available multilayer film with nearly 100% material efficiency, affording recyclable resins that are cost-competitive with the corresponding virgin materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

W2VPCA: A Machine Learning Method for Measuring Attitudes With Natural Language

Company strategy influences many decisions in freight transportation. Behavioral models of company decision-making therefore could benefit from including strategy variables. However, strategy is difficult to observe and quantify. Attitudinal surveys of company executives can be used to collect measurements of latent strategy to use in quantitative models. However, surveys are costly and burdensome. Text mining methods to collect measurements overcome these issues somewhat, but typically require manual intervention and ignore the context of words, which can be problematic. This study introduces a new machine learning method to generate strategy measurement data from existing big text data. The new method, called W2VPCA, combines Natural Language Processing and Principal Components Analysis. W2VPCA produces measurement data that serve as quantitative indicators of latent strategy in behavioral models. W2VPCA is unsupervised, data-driven, and uses information on word context. We apply W2VPCA to generate measurements of latent strategies using readily available, large-scale text data: annual company reports. The empirical measurements are used successfully to associate two latent strategies, one focusing on distribution and the other on products, with truck fleet and distribution center outsourcing decisions. The main empirical outcome is that the W2VPCA measurements outperform Bag-of-Words measurements in a psychometric analysis of latent firm strategies. While this study focuses on freight behavioral models, W2VPCA may also have applications in behavioral modeling in other domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗